financecalendar.com

US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) November 2026
2026-11-25 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Retail Sales: Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers October 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet available
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Retail Sales.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US Retail SalesNext US Retail Sales →
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the October 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, alongside personal income and consumer spending data. November 25 is the day before Thanksgiving, making it one of the last major US economic data releases before markets close for the holiday. The same day also sees the release of the US GDP Q3 2026 second estimate. As of April 2026, core PCE stood at 3.3% year-on-year. Consensus forecasts will be available in the week before the release.

At a Glance

Release Date
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET

Data Covered
October 2026 personal income and spending

Published By
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Prior Core PCE (YoY)
3.3% (April 2026, most recent available)

Same Day Release
GDP Q3 2026 Second Estimate

Context
Day before Thanksgiving; pre-holiday data release

What is the PCE Price Index?
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve’s official inflation target measure, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. PCE tracks changes in prices paid for goods and services by US households, including expenditures made on their behalf by employers and government entities, providing broader coverage than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The core version, which excludes food and energy, is the metric most closely monitored by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) when setting interest rate policy.
The Fed’s stated target is 2% for headline PCE over the longer run. Core PCE reached 3.3% year-on-year by April 2026, having risen steadily from 2.7% in October 2025. This persistent upward trend has kept the federal funds rate at a restrictive level throughout 2026, with policymakers watching each monthly release for evidence that inflation is returning to target. The November 25 release will provide the October 2026 reading, one of the final inflation data points before the year’s close.
The Personal Income and Outlays report additionally covers personal income growth and consumer spending, both of which give policymakers and economists insight into the financial health of US households. The October data will reflect how consumers are behaving heading into the important holiday shopping season, making the spending component particularly valuable context alongside the inflation reading.
US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) Release: November 25, 2026
November 25 is the day before Thanksgiving, making this one of the more unusual calendar placements for a major economic release. Trading liquidity tends to diminish in the afternoon ahead of the holiday, meaning the morning release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time will receive the full attention of a normal trading day before institutional desks wind down for the break. Any significant surprise in the PCE print may produce amplified intraday moves given the reduced afternoon capacity to absorb fresh positions.
The November 25 release arrives two weeks after the FOMC’s December 9, 2026 meeting, the year’s final rate decision. PCE data for October will be one of the key inflation inputs the Fed reviews ahead of December’s meeting. If core PCE shows further progress toward 2%, it increases the probability of a rate cut in December. A still-elevated reading reinforces the case for holding rates into 2027.
On the same day, the BEA will publish the GDP Q3 2026 second estimate, which revises the advance estimate released on October 29. Markets will receive both the inflation update and the revised growth figure simultaneously, providing a comprehensive view of the US economic conditions through October.
Why This PCE Release Matters
The November 25 PCE report will arrive at a pivotal moment in the Fed’s policy cycle. By late November 2026, policymakers will have access to PCE data through October and CPI data through November. The October PCE reading (November 25 release) and the November CPI (November 10) will be the twin inflation inputs for the December FOMC meeting. Together with the October employment report, they will determine whether the Fed ends 2026 on a hold or begins its easing cycle.
The October spending component reflects the first full month of autumn consumer activity, including back-to-school follow-through and early pre-holiday purchases. Strong nominal spending at elevated price levels could signal a resilient consumer but also confirm that inflation is being passed through to end prices without demand destruction. Weak spending would indicate that the combination of high prices and tight credit conditions is beginning to bite into consumer outlays.
For global markets, the November 25 PCE release also matters in the context of the dollar’s performance. Higher-than-expected PCE inflation reduces the probability of a December rate cut, supporting dollar strength and potentially tightening global financial conditions ahead of the holiday period. Lower-than-expected PCE would increase cut probabilities, weaken the dollar, and support risk assets heading into year-end.
What to Watch For

Core PCE above 3.0% YoY – Would keep the December rate-cut probability low and reinforce the case for holding rates into 2027. Likely to support the dollar and weigh on rate-sensitive equities.
Core PCE between 2.5% and 3.0% YoY – Meaningful progress toward the 2% target. Likely to raise December cut expectations and provide a positive tone heading into the holiday season for risk assets.
Core PCE below 2.3% YoY – A significant undershoot that would firmly establish rate cuts as the December base case. Likely to produce sharp moves in bonds and equities in what could be thin pre-holiday markets.

Watch the monthly personal spending figure for any early signal on holiday consumer sentiment. Strong spending growth in October would follow through the Thanksgiving and Christmas seasons and feed into stronger Q4 2026 GDP estimates.
Historical Context

Release Month
Data Month
Core PCE (YoY)
Core PCE (MoM)

May 2026
April 2026
3.3%
+0.24%

April 2026
March 2026
3.2%
+0.30%

March 2026
February 2026
3.0%
n/a

Jan 2026
December 2025
3.0%
+0.40%

Jan 2026
November 2025
2.8%
n/a

Jan 2026
October 2025
2.7%
n/a

Market Positioning
With the Thanksgiving holiday reducing afternoon trading activity, markets will focus intensely on the 8:30 a.m. release window. Any significant deviation from consensus in either PCE or the GDP second estimate will generate outsized moves relative to a normal trading day. Equity and bond markets close early on the day before Thanksgiving, with equity markets shutting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, concentrating all the price action into the morning session.
The dollar and Treasury yields are particularly sensitive to the November 25 PCE print because it directly informs the December FOMC base case. Futures traders will update their December rate-cut probabilities immediately after the 8:30 a.m. release, with the CME FedWatch tool providing real-time probability estimates. These shifts cascade into equity sector rotation, with rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate moving inversely to cut expectations.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The December 9 rate decision is the primary target for which the November 25 PCE data provides critical input.
US CPI Report November 2026 – Released November 10, providing the October CPI reading that pairs with the October PCE data for a complete inflation picture.
US Employment Situation November 2026 – Released November 6, the October jobs data completes the pre-Thanksgiving economic picture alongside PCE and GDP.

Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the November 25 PCE release particularly sensitive for markets?
The November 25 release covers October 2026 PCE data, which is one of the key inflation inputs for the FOMC’s December 9 rate decision. Combined with November CPI (released November 10), it provides the inflation evidence policymakers need to decide whether to hold or cut in December. Additionally, the pre-Thanksgiving timing means thin afternoon liquidity amplifies any morning data surprise.
When is the November 2026 PCE report released?
The BEA will publish the October 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, the day before Thanksgiving. US equity markets close early (1:00 p.m. ET) on the day before Thanksgiving.
What does the October spending data tell us about the holiday shopping season?
October personal spending data captures early pre-holiday activity and is used alongside retail sales data to build estimates of Q4 2026 GDP. Strong October consumer spending suggests households are entering the holiday season with financial confidence, while weak spending may signal that tight credit conditions and high prices are beginning to constrain consumer outlays ahead of Christmas.

US Gross Domestic Product November 2026
2026-11-25 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Gross Domestic Product: Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers Q3 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet available
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Gross Domestic Product.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US Gross Domestic ProductNext US Gross Domestic Product →
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 2026 Second Estimate on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The second estimate updates the advance Q3 2026 GDP figure released on October 29 with additional source data and revisions. The November 25 release falls on the day before Thanksgiving, making it a high-impact pre-holiday data point released alongside the October 2026 Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) report. Real GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.6% in Q1 2026 (second estimate); Q2 and Q3 2026 performance will reflect whether this moderation deepened or reversed during the year.

At a Glance

Release Date
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET

GDP Estimate
Q3 2026 Second Estimate

Published By
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Prior GDP (Q1 2026)
+1.6% annualised (second estimate)

Same Day Release
PCE October 2026

Market Impact
Medium (second estimate revisions usually minor)

What is the US GDP Second Estimate?
Gross Domestic Product measures the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within the United States in a given period, adjusted for inflation and expressed as an annualised quarterly growth rate. The BEA publishes GDP in three stages: the advance estimate (released approximately four weeks after the quarter ends), the second estimate (released approximately eight weeks after quarter-end), and the third estimate (approximately 12 weeks after quarter-end). Each subsequent estimate incorporates more complete source data, reducing the revision risk inherent in the initial advance figure.
The Q3 2026 second estimate, published November 25, revises the advance estimate released on October 29. Second estimates typically incorporate more complete retail sales, services spending, and international trade data. Revisions to second estimates are common but rarely large: the average revision between the advance and second estimate for US GDP is approximately 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points in either direction. A revision larger than one percentage point would be unusual and would attract significant market attention.
GDP measures the broadest health of the US economy. After robust growth of 3.8% in Q2 2025 and 4.4% in Q3 2025, the US economy decelerated sharply to 0.5% in Q4 2025, partly due to the impact of a federal government shutdown. Q1 2026 recovered to 1.6% annualised. The Q3 2026 second estimate will be a key data point in assessing how the second half of 2026 is tracking.
US GDP Q3 2026 Second Estimate: November 25, 2026
The November 25 report revises the Q3 2026 advance estimate published on October 29. The second estimate incorporates updated data from government agencies, trade surveys, and private sector sources that were not yet available when the advance figure was compiled. Markets typically react less to second and third estimates than to advance estimates, since the advance figure sets the initial baseline and revisions are usually modest.
However, the November 25 release remains significant because it arrives alongside the October PCE data, creating a simultaneous dual release of the two most important BEA outputs. If the second estimate revises Q3 2026 GDP materially downward while PCE shows stubborn inflation, markets face a stagflationary signal that is difficult for the Fed to address: cutting rates to support growth risks re-accelerating inflation, while holding rates to fight inflation risks deepening the growth slowdown.
The GDP Q3 second estimate will also contain updated corporate profits data and a breakdown of GDP by major expenditure components: personal consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports. Analysts will examine whether the composition of growth is consistent with a healthy expansion or points to underlying imbalances that could affect the H2 2026 and early 2027 outlook. The October PCE data released at the same time will provide complementary data on consumer spending and inflation.
Why This GDP Release Matters
By the time the November 25 second estimate is published, the FOMC will be in the run-up to its final meeting of the year on December 9. The combined GDP and PCE data released on November 25 will be among the last major economic data points available before the December FOMC decision. If Q3 2026 GDP shows continued deceleration from the 1.6% pace seen in Q1, it strengthens the argument for easing policy. If it surprises to the upside while PCE remains elevated, the Fed’s decision becomes more complicated.
International context also shapes how US GDP data is interpreted. The European Central Bank and Bank of England are managing their own growth and inflation balances, and any divergence between US and European growth trajectories has implications for currency markets and global trade flows. A sharp US deceleration relative to Europe would raise questions about dollar strength and could shift global portfolio allocations.
The GDP decomposition will also be analysed for clues about the durability of consumer spending. If personal consumption is driving Q3 2026 growth, it suggests resilience in the face of restrictive monetary policy. If growth is being supported primarily by government spending or inventory accumulation (which cannot be sustained indefinitely), the quality of growth is lower and forward estimates should be adjusted.
What to Watch For

Q3 GDP revised above +2.5% – An upward revision that reduces recession concerns. Likely to support equities, reduce urgency for December rate cut, and give the Fed more flexibility to hold rates at current levels.
Q3 GDP confirmed in a +1.5% to +2.0% range – In line with the trend from Q1 2026, suggests a soft but stable growth environment. Market reaction likely muted; attention will focus on whether PCE data released simultaneously is moving in the right direction.
Q3 GDP revised below +1.0% – A significant downward revision that raises recession risk, particularly coming after Q4 2025’s 0.5% print. Likely to lift Treasury bond prices (lower yields), weigh on equities, and strengthen expectations for a December rate cut.

Historical Context

Quarter
Real GDP Growth (Annualised)
Key Driver

Q1 2026
+1.6%
Second estimate; partial recovery from Q4 slowdown

Q4 2025
+0.5%
Federal government shutdown (Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2025)

Q3 2025
+4.4%
Strong consumer spending and business investment

Q2 2025
+3.8%
Robust domestic demand and services spending

Full Year 2025
+2.1%
Annual rate; Q4 shutdown weighed on full-year average

Market Positioning
Second estimates of GDP rarely produce large market moves on their own. However, the November 25 release’s pairing with PCE data and its proximity to the December FOMC meeting create conditions where even a moderate revision can shift rate-cut probabilities meaningfully. Traders will monitor the simultaneous PCE and GDP releases in real time, using the combined picture to update their December meeting forecasts in the immediate aftermath of the 8:30 a.m. publication.
The pre-Thanksgiving timing (with equity markets closing early at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time) creates an unusual morning-only window for price discovery. Institutional investors will need to form their views and execute any position changes within the condensed morning session, which can produce faster and more decisive price moves than a typical data-release morning.
Related Events

US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) November 2026 – Released simultaneously on November 25, providing the October inflation and spending data alongside the GDP revision.
FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The December 9 rate decision directly follows the November 25 GDP and PCE releases; the combined data will be a primary input for the year-end policy decision.
US Gross Domestic Product September 2026 – The Q2 2026 third estimate released September 30, providing the most recent finalised GDP baseline before the Q3 estimates begin.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between the GDP advance estimate and the second estimate?
The advance estimate, released approximately four weeks after the quarter ends, is based on incomplete source data and is subject to revision. The second estimate, released eight weeks after quarter-end, incorporates more complete data from government surveys, trade reports, and business accounts. Revisions are typically modest (averaging 0.3-0.5 percentage points) but can occasionally be larger when new data reveals significant differences from initial estimates.
When is the November 2026 GDP report released?
The BEA will publish the Q3 2026 GDP second estimate at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, the day before Thanksgiving. US equity markets close early (1:00 p.m. ET) that day.
How does the GDP second estimate affect Federal Reserve policy?
The GDP second estimate informs the Fed’s assessment of economic momentum. Released alongside PCE data on November 25, two weeks before the December FOMC meeting, it provides policymakers with a comprehensive Q3 growth picture. Notably weak GDP combined with persistent inflation creates a difficult policy trade-off; strong growth with moderating inflation is the more benign scenario that could support an end-of-year rate cut.

US Initial Jobless Claims: November 25, 2026
2026-11-25 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Recent weekly readings near 200,000-220,000; continuing claims ~1.78 million (August 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims
The US Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending November 21, 2026 is released on Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time) by the US Department of Labor. The figure counts the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits in the previous week, one of the timeliest signals of the health of the American labour market. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of writing, a consensus forecast for the November 25 release has not yet been published. Economists’ median estimates typically appear from data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg only a day or two before release, so readers should check back closer to the date. Through the summer and autumn of 2026, weekly initial claims had been running broadly in a 200,000 to 220,000 range, with continuing claims (people still receiving benefits after their first week) near 1.78 million, according to Trading Economics.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Initial claims
Recent weekly readings near 200,000 to 220,000 (2026)
Not yet published

Continuing claims
Around 1.78 million (August 2026)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Above consensus
Read as a sign of a softening labour market; can support expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve (dovish means leaning towards cutting interest rates or holding them low)
More people than expected filed for unemployment benefits, hinting at rising job losses

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction; existing view of the labour market largely confirmed
Claims came in close to what economists expected, so little changes

Below consensus
Read as a sign of continued labour-market resilience; can reduce expectations of near-term rate cuts
Fewer people than expected filed for unemployment benefits, suggesting the jobs market remains firm

Why it matters this week
Weekly jobless claims sit alongside the monthly non-farm payrolls report as one of the Federal Reserve’s key gauges of the labour market when setting interest rates. Through much of 2026, claims stayed low by historical standards even as some other indicators, including softer payroll growth, pointed to a cooling jobs market, a pattern that Federal Open Market Committee members have cited when discussing whether the US economy remains close to full employment, according to Trading Economics. A run of higher-than-usual claims figures in the weeks around Thanksgiving would add weight to arguments for further Fed rate cuts, while a continuation of the low, stable pattern would support those preferring to hold rates steady.
What It Means for Your Money
For anyone with a mortgage, a savings account or a pension invested in shares, this weekly figure matters because it feeds into how investors expect the Federal Reserve to set US interest rates. A weak claims report (more people filing for benefits) tends to push bond yields and, over time, mortgage rates lower, because it raises the odds of interest rate cuts. A strong report (fewer claims than expected) can do the opposite, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.
Changes in US rate expectations also move the dollar against the pound and the euro, which affects the price of imported goods and the cost of a US holiday for UK and European travellers. Investors holding US shares or funds, including within a workplace pension, may see short-term price swings around the release, though a single week’s claims figure rarely changes the bigger economic picture on its own.
If you are job hunting or negotiating pay in the US, a sustained rise in claims over several weeks is a more useful warning sign than any single report, since week-to-week numbers can be volatile around public holidays such as Thanksgiving.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 25 jobless claims report released?
The report is released at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, on Wednesday, November 25, 2026.
What counts as a big miss versus consensus?
Once a consensus is published, a swing of more than around 15,000 to 20,000 claims above or below that figure is generally seen as a notable miss, though markets also watch the broader trend over several weeks rather than one release in isolation.
When is the next jobless claims report?
The following week’s report covers claims for the week ending November 28, 2026 and is typically published the following Wednesday or Thursday, depending on the Thanksgiving holiday schedule.
← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims

US New Home Sales November 2026
2026-11-25 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US New Home Sales: Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers October 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
September 2026 reading (see Census Bureau release for exact figure)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US New Home Sales.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US New Home Sales
US New Home Sales for November 2026 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). The report is published by the US Census Bureau, jointly with the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and covers new single-family home sales data for October 2026. Full background and the release schedule for this series are available on the US New Home Sales hub page.
What is new home sales data?
New home sales measures the number of newly built, single-family homes sold in the United States during a given month, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The Census Bureau compiles the figure from a survey of homebuilders and uses sales contracts signed during the month, whether or not construction is finished, which makes it a leading indicator of housing demand compared with existing home sales, which are recorded at closing.
Economists and market participants watch this release closely because housing is one of the most interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy. Mortgage rates, buyer confidence and builder inventory all feed into the figure, and swings in new home sales often signal shifts in the broader economy before they show up in employment or spending data.
The report also breaks sales down by region (Northeast, Midwest, South and West), median sales price, and months’ supply of homes for sale, all of which help analysts judge whether the housing market is tightening or loosening.
When is the October new home sales report released?
The October 2026 New Home Sales report is released by the Census Bureau on Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time). It is published on the Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales page as a PDF and set of data tables. This date follows the Census Bureau’s usual pattern of releasing New Residential Sales roughly three to four weeks after the reference month ends.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the October 2026 new home sales figure had not yet been published by major polling services such as Reuters or Bloomberg; these forecasts typically appear in the days immediately before the release. Readers should check financial data providers closer to November 25, 2026 for the latest median estimate.
The September 2026 reading, the most recent published print at the time of writing, is best confirmed directly from the Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales release, since exact figures for recent months are subject to revision and were not independently verified for this preview.

Measure
Prior (September 2026)
Consensus (October 2026)

New home sales (SAAR)
See Census Bureau release
Not yet published

Median sales price
See Census Bureau release
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as a sign of resilient housing demand, potentially reducing expectations of near-term rate cuts
More new homes were bought than expected, suggesting buyers are coping with current mortgage rates

In line with consensus
Likely to have limited market impact, reinforcing existing views on the housing market’s trajectory
The housing market is behaving broadly as economists expected

Below consensus
May be interpreted as a sign of housing market weakness, which some analysts link to affordability pressures from mortgage rates
Fewer new homes sold than expected, which could reflect buyers pulling back due to cost or borrowing conditions

These are possible market reactions described by analysts and economists in commentary around past releases, not predictions of how markets will actually move on the day.
Why does this release matter right now?
Housing remains one of the sectors most directly affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, since mortgage rates move closely with the Fed’s benchmark rate and broader bond yields. New home sales data gives policymakers and investors an early read on whether higher borrowing costs are cooling demand or whether buyers are adapting. Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly pointed to housing affordability as one of the areas most affected by monetary policy in recent commentary, and shifts in new home sales feed into the broader debate over the pace of any future rate changes.
Builders’ willingness to offer incentives, such as mortgage rate buydowns, has also shaped recent sales patterns, since these incentives can support sales volumes even when affordability remains stretched for many buyers.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: A stronger-than-expected report could reduce the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts, keeping mortgage rates higher for longer; a weaker report could support the case for rate cuts, which may eventually feed through to lower borrowing costs.
Savings: Interest rate expectations that shift on housing data can affect the returns on savings accounts and fixed-term deposits, since banks often adjust these rates in line with central bank policy expectations.
Jobs and wages: Homebuilding supports jobs in construction, materials and related trades; a sustained slowdown in new home sales can eventually show up as softer hiring in these sectors.
Investments and pensions: Housing data can move homebuilder stocks and broader equity indices, which in turn can affect the value of pension funds and other investments with exposure to US equities.
Currencies: Because the data feeds into expectations for US interest rates, a surprise reading can move the US dollar against the pound and the euro, with knock-on effects for the cost of US travel, imports and dollar-denominated debt for people outside the United States.

Related events

Previous release: US New Home Sales, October 2026 data
Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors, which covers completed home purchases and offers a comparison point
US housing starts and building permits data, which track new construction activity ahead of eventual sales

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the October new home sales report released?
The report is released on November 25, 2026 at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London.
How should I read the new home sales figure?
Focus on the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) rather than the raw monthly count, and compare it against both the prior month and the consensus forecast to judge whether the housing market is strengthening or weakening.
How does this data affect interest rates?
Stronger-than-expected sales can reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, while weaker sales can add to the case for rate cuts, though the Fed weighs many data points together rather than reacting to a single report.
Where can I find the official new home sales release?
The official report is published on the US Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales page.
When is the next new home sales report after this one?
The Census Bureau typically publishes New Residential Sales data roughly three to four weeks after each reference month ends, so the November 2026 data (covering activity in that month) would normally follow in late December 2026 or early January 2027.
← Previous US New Home Sales

Beige Book November 2026
2026-11-25 14:00 - 15:00 (America/New_York)
Next Beige Book: Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Held at 3.50%-3.75% (July 28-29, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Beige Book.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Beige Book
The Federal Reserve publishes the November 2026 Beige Book on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London). This is not a rate decision. It is a qualitative survey of economic conditions across the Fed’s twelve regional districts, compiled from interviews with business contacts, economists and market experts. It is released eight times a year, roughly two weeks before each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and is one of the inputs policymakers use when deciding whether to hold, cut or raise the federal funds rate. Full schedule and background: Beige Book release dates.
What is the FOMC and what does it decide?
The Federal Open Market Committee is the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting body. It has a dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices, generally interpreted as inflation around 2%. The committee sets the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight, which flows through to mortgages, business loans, credit cards and savings accounts across the US and, indirectly, global borrowing costs.
The FOMC has twelve voting members: the seven Federal Reserve Board governors, the president of the New York Fed, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents on a rotating basis. It meets eight times a year, and the Beige Book is prepared for each of those meetings using reports gathered by the twelve regional Reserve Banks rather than hard economic data.
Because the Beige Book is anecdotal rather than statistical, it does not move markets the way a jobs report or a rate decision does. Its value is in giving a real-time, on-the-ground read of hiring, pricing, wages and demand that will not appear in official data for weeks.
When is the November 2026 Beige Book announced?
The report is scheduled for release at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London) on Wednesday, November 25, 2026. There is no press conference attached to the Beige Book itself. It is published as a written document by the Federal Reserve Board and is timed to land ahead of the FOMC’s next scheduled meeting on December 8 and 9, 2026, when the committee will next vote on the target range for the federal funds rate and, because December is a Summary of Economic Projections meeting, publish updated growth, inflation and rate forecasts along with the closely watched “dot plot”.
What to expect
The Beige Book does not carry a consensus forecast in the way inflation or jobs data do, because it is a qualitative narrative rather than a number. According to FedRateCalc’s tracking of the 2026 FOMC schedule, the FOMC held its target range at 3.5% to 3.75% at the July 28 and 29, 2026 meeting, voting 9 to 3 to hold. That range was still the confirmed starting point heading into the September 15 and 16, 2026 meeting. Traders will read the November Beige Book for clues on whether regional conditions support another hold, a cut, or renewed caution at the December meeting, and pricing in tools such as the CME FedWatch tool typically shifts in the hours after release if the report flags a marked change in hiring or pricing pressure.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

July 28-29, 2026
Held (9-3 vote)
3.50%-3.75%

September 15-16, 2026
To be confirmed by the Federal Reserve
3.50%-3.75% (as of the July decision)

December 8-9, 2026
Next scheduled decision
Not yet decided

Rows for meetings between September and December are omitted here because the outcomes had not been independently verified against the Federal Reserve’s own release schedule at the time of writing. Readers should check the Federal Reserve’s official Beige Book page for the confirmed record of each meeting.
Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Beige Book describes steady, unremarkable conditions
Little reaction; traders keep existing rate-cut or hold bets largely unchanged
Businesses across the country are seeing roughly the same demand and costs as before, so the Fed has no new reason to change course quickly

Beige Book flags cooling hiring or weaker demand
Bond yields can dip and rate-cut bets can firm, according to typical trader positioning around soft anecdotal data
If firms in several districts say hiring is slowing, that supports the case for the Fed to cut rates sooner to support jobs

Beige Book flags persistent price or wage pressure
Yields can edge up and rate-cut expectations can be pushed back
If businesses report they are still raising prices or paying more for staff, the Fed has less room to cut without risking higher inflation

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Because the Beige Book has no press conference, the signal comes from its written language rather than a spoken briefing. Analysts compare the tone of each district’s summary against the previous report, watching for words such as “moderate”, “flat” or “declining” activity, and for any district specifically flagging layoffs, tariff-related cost pressure or credit tightening. The report feeds directly into the discussion at the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting, where officials will also weigh the latest inflation and employment data, any dissent among voting members, and the pace of the Fed’s balance sheet run-off, before deciding on the rate and publishing updated projections.
What It Means for Your Money
The Beige Book itself rarely moves mortgage rates, savings rates or the dollar on its own, because it contains no new hard data and no vote. Its real relevance is as an early hint of what the Fed might do at its December meeting, which does affect household finances directly.

Mortgages and remortgaging: if the report suggests the Fed is edging toward a cut, US mortgage rates and, to a lesser extent, UK and eurozone borrowing costs that track global bond yields, can soften in anticipation.
Savings accounts: a Fed that looks more likely to cut in December can nudge US savings and money market rates lower over time; UK and eurozone savers are more affected by their own central banks but often watch Fed signals as a guide to the global rate cycle.
Loans and credit cards: variable-rate borrowing costs in the US are tied closely to the federal funds rate, so any shift in expectations for December filters through with a lag.
Currencies: a Beige Book read as dovish (more open to cutting) tends to weigh modestly on the dollar, which can support the pound and the euro; a hawkish read (more cautious) tends to do the opposite.
Pensions and stock markets: pension funds and equity investors in the US, UK and Asia price in expected Fed moves months ahead, so the Beige Book is one of many inputs that can cause small adjustments in bond and share prices rather than sharp swings on the day itself.

Related events

Previous Beige Book: September 2026 Beige Book
Next FOMC rate decision: December 8-9, 2026, when the committee also publishes updated projections and the dot plot
US inflation and jobs reports due before the December meeting will carry more weight than the Beige Book for the actual rate decision

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 Beige Book released?
It is published at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, which is 7:00 pm in London.
Does the Beige Book set interest rates?
No. It is a qualitative survey of regional business conditions that feeds into the FOMC’s discussion; the rate decision itself comes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting.
What is the current federal funds rate?
The FOMC held the target range at 3.5% to 3.75% at its July 28-29, 2026 meeting, according to tracking by FedRateCalc; readers should confirm against the Federal Reserve’s own releases for any decisions made since.
When is the next FOMC rate decision after this Beige Book?
The next scheduled meeting is December 8-9, 2026, which also includes updated economic projections.
Where can I read the full Beige Book?
The full report is published on the Federal Reserve’s own Beige Book page.
← Previous Beige Book

NYSE/NASDAQ: Thanksgiving 2026
2026-11-26 00:00 - 23:59 UTC
NYSE & Nasdaq are closed on Thursday, November 26, 2026 for Thanksgiving Day.

Bond market
Closed
Next holiday
Day After Thanksgiving (Early Close), November 27, 2026
Regular hours
9:30 am to 4:00 pm ET

Full schedule and background: Stock Market Holidays.
Updated August 25, 2026

US equity and bond markets will be fully closed on Thursday, November 26, 2026, for Thanksgiving Day, a federal public holiday. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq will also close early at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday, November 27, 2026, the day after Thanksgiving — a session commonly referred to as Black Friday in trading circles. The two-day closure pattern makes Thanksgiving one of the most disruptive holidays for market liquidity in the US calendar, with a compressed four-hour trading window on the Friday followed by a full return to normal hours on Monday, November 30. Options markets and most futures products follow the same abbreviated schedule.
What is Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving Day is a federal public holiday in the United States, celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November each year. Rooted in the harvest traditions of early colonial America, Thanksgiving has been a national holiday since 1863, when President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed it an annual observance. In 2026, the fourth Thursday of November falls on November 26.
From a financial market perspective, Thanksgiving occupies a unique position in the calendar. It is the only NYSE market holiday where the adjacent trading day — the Friday — is not a full close but instead an early close at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. This creates a distinctive two-day impact: a full closure on Thursday followed by a heavily abbreviated session on Friday, with normal hours resuming only on Monday. The pattern produces some of the lightest trading volumes of the year, as many market participants extend the Thanksgiving break into a four-day weekend.
The Thanksgiving weekend also marks the unofficial start of the US holiday shopping season. Retail sector stocks, consumer discretionary equities, and payment processing companies are watched closely in the days surrounding Thanksgiving as analysts begin to track early indicators of holiday retail spending. Black Friday — the day after Thanksgiving — has historically been the largest US retail sales day of the year, though the shift to online shopping has diffused some of this concentration across a longer pre-holiday window.
At a Glance

Full market closure: Thursday, November 26, 2026 (Thanksgiving Day)
Early close: Friday, November 27, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (1:15 p.m. for eligible options)
Markets closed Thursday: NYSE, Nasdaq, CBOE, US options exchanges, US bond markets (SIFMA full close)
CME futures: Equity futures closed Thursday; early close Friday; reopen Sunday evening
Full normal trading resumes: Monday, November 30, 2026
Holiday shopping season link: Black Friday retail activity begins November 27

Thanksgiving 2026: Markets and Trading Schedule
The NYSE Group has designated Thursday, November 26, 2026, as a full market holiday for all US equity exchanges. Trading in NYSE-listed securities, Nasdaq-listed securities, exchange-listed options, and related products will be suspended for the entire session. On Friday, November 27, trading will be permitted but will close at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time — three hours shorter than the standard 4:00 p.m. close. Options markets, including those on the CBOE, close at 1:15 p.m. Eastern Time on November 27.
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends a full market closure for US Treasury and fixed income markets on November 26, with an early close at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time recommended for November 27. Bond market participants, fixed income portfolio managers, and repo desks should plan settlement and liquidity management around both days of the reduced-hours period, particularly for transactions scheduled to settle through the end of November.
CME Group equity index futures will suspend trading on the Thanksgiving holiday and operate on a shortened schedule on Friday, November 27. Electronic trading in the most actively traded equity futures contracts typically resumes on Sunday, November 29, at 5:00 p.m. Central Time (6:00 p.m. Eastern), ahead of the full Monday reopening. Agricultural futures, metals, and energy products may follow separate schedules; traders should consult the CME Group holiday calendar for product-specific times.
Why Thanksgiving Matters for Markets
The Thanksgiving holiday creates one of the most distinctive liquidity environments of the financial year. Trading volumes on the Friday after Thanksgiving (November 27) are consistently among the lowest of any non-holiday trading session in the US calendar. Many institutional portfolio managers do not operate on Black Friday, and volumes are often a fraction of an average November session. This means that any news that breaks during the Friday shortened session — or during the Thursday holiday — can produce exaggerated price movements when liquidity is thinnest.
For consumer-facing equities, Thanksgiving weekend is a critical inflection point. The period covering the Thanksgiving-through-Cyber Monday window (November 26-30) generates a significant portion of US annual retail revenues, and early data on foot traffic, online orders, and card spending begins to emerge on the Friday itself. Retail sector analysts and consumer discretionary investors will be monitoring these indicators closely, with expectations for the 2026 holiday season set against the backdrop of persistently elevated inflation and subdued consumer confidence through much of 2026. Data on US Retail Sales for November 2026 will provide the official benchmark, but the Black Friday spending signals offer an earlier directional read.
For fixed income and macro traders, the post-Thanksgiving week is compressed into four trading days (November 30 to December 4) before end-of-month flows and the December economic calendar begin to dominate. The US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) report for November 2026, which includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, is typically released in the final days of November or first days of December and sets the tone for December FOMC deliberations.
The November-December 2026 Context
Thanksgiving 2026 falls late in the month on November 26, compressing the trading period between it and the December economic calendar. The Federal Open Market Committee’s December 2026 meeting is scheduled in mid-December, and the final economic data prints before the Fed’s end-year decision begin arriving immediately after the Thanksgiving break. The November employment report, PCE inflation data, and retail sales figures will all be processed in the compressed post-Thanksgiving window, making this year’s holiday break particularly significant for positioning ahead of the Fed’s final meeting of 2026.
The Bank of England MPC Rate Decision for November 2026 is scheduled earlier in the month, but its implications for sterling-denominated assets and UK rate expectations will still be active in the post-Thanksgiving environment. Currency traders managing GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and cross-asset positions linked to the transatlantic rate differentials will be watching for any policy signals from the Bank of England that might affect positioning as US markets reopen after Thanksgiving.
Settlement and Operational Implications
The two-day holiday structure around Thanksgiving creates specific settlement timing considerations. Under T+1 settlement rules, trades executed on Wednesday, November 25, will settle on Monday, November 30 — as both Thursday (holiday) and Friday (optional settlement exclusion for some products) create an extended gap. Trades executed on the abbreviated Friday session (November 27) will settle on Tuesday, December 1. Operations teams, custodians, and fund administrators managing daily NAV calculations, redemptions, or repo maturities should build settlement maps around these dates well in advance.
For the options market, the early close on November 27 creates additional complexity for contracts expiring on that date. Any weekly options series with a Friday, November 27, expiry will trade for only the first three and a quarter hours of the session. Traders holding open positions in these contracts should monitor their broker’s specific expiry handling rules and ensure sufficient time to manage or close positions before the 1:00 p.m. Eastern cut-off.
Related Events

US Retail Sales November 2026 — The official measurement of US retail activity for November, covering the critical Thanksgiving and Black Friday period and signalling the strength of the holiday shopping season.
US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) November 2026 — Includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge; typically released in the final days of November and is a key input to December FOMC deliberations.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision November 2026 — The UK’s interest rate decision for November, which shapes cross-Atlantic rate differentials active during the post-Thanksgiving trading environment.

Frequently Asked Questions
When is Thanksgiving 2026 and what are the market hours?
Thanksgiving Day 2026 falls on Thursday, November 26. US equity markets (NYSE, Nasdaq) are fully closed on November 26. On Friday, November 27, markets open at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time but close early at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (1:15 p.m. for eligible options). Normal trading hours resume on Monday, November 30, 2026. The NYSE Group publishes the official holiday calendar confirming these times in advance each year.
Why do US markets close early on the Friday after Thanksgiving?
The NYSE tradition of an early close on Black Friday dates to the mid-20th century and reflects the historically low staffing and trading volume on that day, as market participants typically treat Thanksgiving as the start of a four-day break. Volumes on the Friday after Thanksgiving are consistently among the lowest of any non-holiday trading day in the calendar year, and the 1:00 p.m. close allows exchanges to manage operational risk with reduced staffing levels while still providing a trading session for investors who need liquidity.
How does the Thanksgiving break affect retail and consumer sector stocks?
Thanksgiving and the surrounding holiday shopping period (Black Friday through Cyber Monday) are closely watched by retail sector investors. Early data on consumer spending — via card transaction aggregators, foot traffic trackers, and retailer announcements — begins to emerge during the holiday weekend and can influence opening prices in consumer discretionary equities when markets reopen on Monday, November 30. A strong or weak Black Friday reading relative to expectations will be one of the most discussed topics at desks when trading resumes.

Is the Stock Market Open on Thanksgiving 2026? CME Futures Hours
2026-11-26 00:00 - 23:59 (America/New_York)
CME Group Futures close early at 12:00 pm local on Thursday, November 26, 2026 for Thanksgiving Day (Equity Futures Halt 12:00 CT).

Next holiday
Day After Thanksgiving (Early Close), November 27, 2026
Regular hours
5:00 pm to 4:00 pm CT (Sun-Fri, with 4:00-5:00 pm daily maintenance break)

Full schedule and background: CME Futures Holidays.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous CME Futures Holidays
CME Group equity index futures (including E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Dow futures) halt trading at 12:00 pm Central Time (1:00 pm ET, 6:00 pm London time) on Thursday, November 26, 2026, in observance of Thanksgiving Day. Cash equity markets, the NYSE and Nasdaq, are fully closed for the entire day, so there is no underlying stock session to track alongside the futures. Trading in most CME products resumes with the normal Sunday evening open at 5:00 pm CT on November 29, 2026, though the following day, Friday, November 27, carries its own early close. For the full run of futures market dates, see the CME Futures Holidays calendar.
Orders placed after the halt queue for the next available session rather than executing immediately. Anyone holding open futures positions or planning to roll a contract around Thanksgiving should check the exact halt time for their specific product, since not every CME product follows the same schedule on holidays.
Which markets are closed on Thanksgiving Day 2026?

Market
Status
Notes

NYSE and Nasdaq (equities)
Closed
Full-day closure, confirmed by the NYSE holiday calendar

CME equity index futures
Trading halts at 12:00 pm CT
E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and related products

US Treasury market (bonds)
Closed
SIFMA recommends a full close for Thanksgiving Day

US options markets
Closed
Follows the equity market schedule

London Stock Exchange (LSE)
Open (regular hours)
Thanksgiving is not a UK public holiday

Euronext
Open (regular hours)
No European exchange observes the US holiday

Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)
Open (regular hours)
Not affected by the US calendar

Is the market open the day before and after?
Wednesday, November 25, 2026 is a normal full trading day across US equities and futures. On Thanksgiving itself, cash equities are shut and CME equity futures stop trading at 12:00 pm CT. The following day, Friday, November 27, 2026, is an early close: CME futures are scheduled to close around 12:15 pm CT, and NYSE and Nasdaq cash equities close at 1:00 pm ET, according to the NYSE holiday and early-closings calendar. Regular hours return in full from Monday, November 30, 2026.
Why do markets close for Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving has been a US federal holiday since the 1940s, and American exchanges have closed for it for as long as most trading records go back. The tradition reflects the wider closure of US government offices, banks and many businesses rather than any decision unique to the markets.
The early close the following day is a more recent, practical adjustment: with much of Wall Street’s staff away for the long weekend and trading volumes typically thin, exchanges shorten the session rather than run a full day with little liquidity.
What It Means for Your Money
If you place a stock or futures order on Thanksgiving Day itself, it simply queues and executes when trading resumes; nothing is lost, but the timing shifts. Under the current US settlement rule, most equity trades settle one business day after execution (T+1), so a trade placed on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving settles on the Friday, and one placed just before the CME futures halt is processed on the next available session. Dividend payment dates and monthly options expirations that would otherwise fall on the holiday move to the nearest open trading day. Bank transfers and payroll processing that rely on the Federal Reserve’s wire systems may also be delayed by a day, since most US banks are closed on Thanksgiving. None of this affects cryptocurrency markets, which trade continuously around the clock regardless of the US holiday calendar.
Remaining CME Futures holidays in 2026

Friday, November 27, 2026: Day After Thanksgiving, early close (around 12:15 pm CT)
Thursday, December 24, 2026: Christmas Eve, early close (around 12:15 pm CT)
Friday, December 25, 2026: Christmas Day, full closure

Frequently Asked Questions
Is the stock market open on Thanksgiving 2026?
No, the NYSE and Nasdaq are fully closed on Thursday, November 26, 2026, and CME equity index futures stop trading at 12:00 pm CT.
Is the bond market open on Thanksgiving 2026?
No, SIFMA recommends a full closure of the US Treasury and broader bond market for Thanksgiving Day.
What time do CME futures close on Thanksgiving?
Equity index futures trading halts at 12:00 pm Central Time (1:00 pm Eastern Time) on Thanksgiving Day, resuming with the regular Friday session.
When is the next US market holiday after Thanksgiving 2026?
The next scheduled market event is the Day After Thanksgiving early close on Friday, November 27, 2026, followed by the Christmas Eve early close and Christmas Day closure in December.
Are banks open on Thanksgiving 2026?
No, US banks are closed on Thanksgiving Day along with most federal offices, though this does not affect exchanges outside the United States.
← Previous CME Futures Holidays

Is the Bond Market Open on Thanksgiving Day 2026? SIFMA Hours
2026-11-26 00:00 - 23:59 (America/New_York)
US Bond Market (SIFMA) are closed on Thursday, November 26, 2026 for Thanksgiving Day.

Next holiday
Day After Thanksgiving (Early Close), November 27, 2026
Regular hours
8:00 am to 5:00 pm ET (SIFMA recommended)

Full schedule and background: Bond Market Holidays.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Bond Market Holidays
The US bond market is closed on Thursday, November 26, 2026 for Thanksgiving Day, according to the SIFMA holiday schedule, which sets recommended trading hours for US fixed income markets. This closure applies to Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities and most other US dollar debt instruments traded through SIFMA member firms. Orders placed on the day will not be executed until the market reopens, and settlement of any trades from the prior session will be pushed back by one business day. For the full run of dates through the year, see the bond market holiday calendar.
Because Thanksgiving falls on a fixed weekday (the fourth Thursday of November) rather than a fixed date, the holiday moves each year, but the closure itself is consistent: SIFMA has recommended a full close of the US bond market on Thanksgiving Day every year for decades, mirroring the equity market closure observed by the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.
Which markets are closed on Thanksgiving Day 2026?

Market
Status
Notes

US equities (NYSE, Nasdaq)
Closed
Standard NYSE and Nasdaq holiday schedule

US bond market (SIFMA members)
Closed
Recommended full close for Treasuries, agencies and MBS

US options
Closed
Follows equity market schedule

CME futures (US)
Closed or limited hours
Most CME product groups halt trading for the session; check the exchange calendar for exact times

London Stock Exchange (LSE)
Open (regular hours)
Thanksgiving is not a UK public holiday

Euronext
Open (regular hours)
Not observed in continental Europe

Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)
Open (regular hours)
Not a Japanese holiday

Because Thanksgiving is a US-only holiday, investors in the UK, Europe and Asia can still trade shares, gilts, bunds and other local instruments as normal on November 26, 2026. The main effect abroad is lower liquidity in US dollar bonds and reduced overnight trading volumes on desks that deal directly with US counterparties, since American trading floors are shut for the day.
Is the market open the day before and after?
The bond market operates on regular hours, 8:00 am to 5:00 pm ET, on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, the trading day immediately before Thanksgiving. There is no early close scheduled for that Wednesday under the SIFMA recommendation. The market reopens on Friday, November 27, 2026, but with a shortened session: SIFMA recommends an early close at 2:00 pm ET for the Day After Thanksgiving, one of the lightest-volume sessions of the year as many traders take the extended weekend off.
This pattern, a full closure followed by an early close the next day, is one of the most predictable features of the US trading calendar and is worth noting if you have orders, wire transfers or bond settlements scheduled around the holiday period.
Why do markets close for Thanksgiving Day?
Thanksgiving has been a US federal holiday since 1863 and is fixed by law to the fourth Thursday of November. US financial markets, including the bond market, equities and futures exchanges, have long closed in observance, reflecting both the federal holiday status and the practical reality that staffing and client activity fall sharply during the holiday week.
The shortened session the following day, often called Black Friday in retail circles, became a fixture of the SIFMA and NYSE calendars because volumes are typically thin as traders extend the holiday weekend, making a full trading day unnecessary for most market participants.
What It Means for Your Money
If you are a retail investor holding a brokerage account, any bond trade you attempt to place on Thanksgiving Day will simply queue and execute once the market reopens, so there is no risk to open orders beyond the delay itself. Settlement of trades executed the day before the holiday will take an extra business day to clear, since settlement cycles count only business days, which can matter if you are relying on funds from a bond sale to cover a near-term payment.
Bond coupon payments and interest accruals are calculated on calendar days, so a market closure does not change how much interest you earn, only when a payment might be processed if it happens to fall on the holiday. Bank wire transfers and ACH payments in the US typically do not process on Thanksgiving Day either, so anyone waiting on a transfer tied to a bond maturity or coupon should expect it to land on the next business day rather than the holiday itself. Mortgage rate movements, which are closely tied to Treasury yields, are effectively frozen for the day since the underlying bond market is shut, so there is unlikely to be any meaningful rate change until trading resumes. Cryptocurrency markets, by contrast, trade 24 hours a day and are unaffected by the Thanksgiving closure.
Remaining SIFMA Bond Market Holidays and Early Closes in 2026

Day After Thanksgiving (Early Close), November 27, 2026, close at 2:00 pm ET
Christmas Eve (Early Close), December 24, 2026, close at 2:00 pm ET
Christmas Day, December 25, 2026, closed
New Year’s Eve (Early Close), December 31, 2026, close at 2:00 pm ET

Frequently Asked Questions
Is the bond market open on Thanksgiving Day 2026?
No. The US bond market is closed on Thursday, November 26, 2026, following the SIFMA recommended holiday schedule.
Is the stock market also closed on Thanksgiving?
Yes. The NYSE and Nasdaq are closed on the same day, so equities, options and the bond market all observe the holiday together.
What time does the market close the day after Thanksgiving?
SIFMA recommends an early close at 2:00 pm ET on Friday, November 27, 2026, the Day After Thanksgiving.
When is the next bond market holiday after Thanksgiving?
The next date on the calendar is the Day After Thanksgiving early close on November 27, 2026, followed by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in December.
Are banks open on Thanksgiving Day?
No. US banks are generally closed on Thanksgiving Day, alongside the stock and bond markets, so wire transfers and in-branch services resume the next business day.
← Previous Bond Market Holidays

Is the Stock Market Open on Day After Thanksgiving 2026? CME Futures Hours
2026-11-27 00:00 - 23:59 (America/New_York)
CME Group Futures close early at 12:15 pm local on Friday, November 27, 2026 for Day After Thanksgiving (Early Close).

Next holiday
Christmas Eve (Early Close), December 24, 2026
Regular hours
5:00 pm to 4:00 pm CT (Sun-Fri, with 4:00-5:00 pm daily maintenance break)

Full schedule and background: CME Futures Holidays.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous CME Futures Holidays
CME Group futures markets have an early close on Friday, November 27, 2026, the day after Thanksgiving, with trading ending at 12:15 pm local (Chicago) time. This is a scheduled shortened session rather than a full closure, so most futures contracts trade for a reduced window before the exchange halts for the day. Orders placed after the early close queue for the next full trading session. Full schedule and background: CME Futures Holidays.
Which markets are closed on Day After Thanksgiving 2026?

Market
Status
Notes

CME Group futures (equity index, interest rate, FX, commodities)
Early close
Trading ends at 12:15 pm local time; regular hours resume the following session

NYSE and Nasdaq (US equities)
Early close
Widely observed 1:00 pm ET close, an hour ahead of the normal 4:00 pm ET finish

SIFMA-recommended bond market close
Early close
Bond desks typically close early on this day, though the exact time is not confirmed in this brief

Options markets (Cboe, equity options)
Early close
Generally mirrors the equity market’s shortened session

London Stock Exchange
Open (regular hours)
Thanksgiving is not a UK public holiday

Euronext
Open (regular hours)
No European exchange observes the US holiday

Tokyo Stock Exchange
Open (regular hours)
Not affected by the US holiday calendar

Is the market open the day before and after?
Thursday, November 26, 2026, Thanksgiving Day itself, is a full closure across US equity, bond and futures markets. Friday, November 27 is the shortened session covered here. The next full trading day is Monday, November 30, 2026, when CME Futures return to their regular hours of 5:00 pm to 4:00 pm CT (Sunday to Friday, with the usual 4:00 to 5:00 pm daily maintenance break).
Why do markets close for Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving has been observed as a US public holiday since the 19th century, and American exchanges have long closed for it out of tradition and to allow staff and traders time off. The early close on the following Friday developed as a practical compromise: rather than close entirely, exchanges shorten the session because trading volumes are historically thin, with many market participants extending the holiday into a long weekend.
CME Group and other US exchanges coordinate these shortened sessions with equity markets so that futures, options and underlying stocks broadly wind down together, reducing the risk of unusual price moves in illiquid, low-volume conditions.
What It Means for Your Money
If you place a futures order after the 12:15 pm local cutoff on November 27, 2026, it will typically queue for the next available session rather than execute immediately. This matters for anyone hedging positions, rolling contracts, or managing margin, since a shortened window can mean less time to react to news. Settlement of trades follows the normal T+1 (trade date plus one business day) cycle, but the compressed hours can affect same-day execution for retail investors trading index futures, commodities or currency futures through a broker. Dividend payments and options expiry tied to the underlying stock market are unaffected by the futures schedule itself. Bank transfers and payroll processing in the US may also run on a slightly delayed timetable around the holiday weekend. Cryptocurrency markets, by contrast, trade 24/7 and are not affected by any exchange holiday schedule.
Remaining CME Futures holidays in 2026

Christmas Eve, December 24, 2026: Early close at 12:15 pm local
Christmas Day, December 25, 2026: Full closure

Frequently Asked Questions
Is the stock market open on the day after Thanksgiving 2026?
Yes, but only for a shortened session. Equity markets typically close at 1:00 pm ET, an hour earlier than usual.
Is the bond market open the day after Thanksgiving?
US bond markets generally follow an early close on this day, in line with the reduced trading day observed across other asset classes.
What time do CME futures close on November 27, 2026?
CME Group futures close at 12:15 pm local (Chicago) time, ahead of the normal daily schedule.
When is the next CME Futures holiday after this one?
The next scheduled holiday is Christmas Eve, December 24, 2026, another early close, followed by the full closure on Christmas Day, December 25, 2026.
Are banks open on the day after Thanksgiving?
Most US banks remain open on this day, since it is not a federal reserve bank holiday, though some branches may have reduced hours.
← Previous CME Futures Holidays

Is the Bond Market Open on the Day After Thanksgiving 2026? SIFMA Hours
2026-11-27 00:00 - 23:59 (America/New_York)
US Bond Market (SIFMA) close early at 2:00 pm local on Friday, November 27, 2026 for Day After Thanksgiving (Early Close).

Next holiday
Christmas Eve (Early Close), December 24, 2026
Regular hours
8:00 am to 5:00 pm ET (SIFMA recommended)

Full schedule and background: Bond Market Holidays.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Bond Market Holidays
The US bond market closes early on Friday, November 27, 2026, the day after Thanksgiving. SIFMA (the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) recommends that fixed income trading desks close at 2:00 pm local time, three hours earlier than the usual 8:00 am to 5:00 pm ET session. This is a recommendation, not a mandatory shutdown, so some desks may keep slightly different hours, but the vast majority of dealers follow it. Equity markets also close early that day. Full schedule and background: Bond Market Holidays.
Because it is an early close rather than a full closure, orders placed before 2:00 pm ET on bonds will still execute that day. Settlement, which for most US Treasury and corporate bond trades happens on a T+1 basis, is not affected by the shortened session, but trades placed right at the close may see wider spreads and thinner liquidity than normal.
Which markets are closed on the Day After Thanksgiving 2026?

Market
Status
Notes

US Bond Market (SIFMA)
Early close, 2:00 pm ET
Recommended early close for Treasuries, agency and corporate bonds

NYSE (equities)
Early close, 1:00 pm ET
1:15 pm ET for eligible options, per NYSE trading hours

Nasdaq (equities)
Early close, 1:00 pm ET
Follows the same early close as NYSE

CME futures
Early close (varies by product)
Most financial and commodity futures close early; check the specific contract

Options (US)
Early close, 1:15 pm ET
Same day as equities

London Stock Exchange (LSE)
Open (regular hours)
Thanksgiving is a US holiday only

Euronext
Open (regular hours)
No observance of the US holiday

Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)
Open (regular hours)
No observance of the US holiday

Is the market open the day before and after?
Thursday, November 26, 2026 is Thanksgiving Day itself, when the bond market and equity markets are fully closed in the United States. Wednesday, November 25, 2026 trades at regular hours in both bonds and equities. On Friday, November 27, 2026, the bond market closes early at 2:00 pm ET and equities close early at 1:00 pm ET. The next full trading day with normal hours is Monday, November 30, 2026.
Why do markets close for Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving has been a fixed US federal holiday on the fourth Thursday of November since 1941, and financial markets have observed the full closure for decades as staff take the day off with families. The early close on the following Friday became standard practice because trading volumes drop sharply as many traders extend the holiday into a long weekend, so exchanges and SIFMA shortened the session rather than run a full day with thin liquidity.
What It Means for Your Money
If you place a bond or equity trade after the early close on November 27, 2026, it queues for execution when the market reopens on Monday, November 30, 2026. Settlement dates shift accordingly, so anyone relying on a trade settling by a specific date should factor in the early close. Dividend payments and options expirations scheduled for that Friday are generally processed as normal but with a shortened window, so check with your broker if timing matters. Bank wire transfers and payroll runs tied to bond settlement can also be affected if they depend on same-day processing after 2:00 pm ET. Cryptocurrency markets are unaffected, since they trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week, regardless of US holidays.
Remaining SIFMA Bond Market Holidays in 2026

Christmas Eve (Early Close), December 24, 2026, close at 2:00 pm local
Christmas Day, December 25, 2026, fully closed
New Year’s Eve (Early Close), December 31, 2026, close at 2:00 pm local

Frequently Asked Questions
Is the bond market open on the Day After Thanksgiving 2026?
Yes, but only until 2:00 pm ET. SIFMA recommends an early close on Friday, November 27, 2026.
Is the stock market open on the Day After Thanksgiving 2026?
Yes, the NYSE and Nasdaq are open but close early at 1:00 pm ET (1:15 pm ET for eligible options).
What time does the bond market close on November 27, 2026?
SIFMA recommends US fixed income desks close at 2:00 pm local time, three hours earlier than usual.
When is the next bond market holiday after this one?
The next SIFMA holiday is Christmas Eve (Early Close) on December 24, 2026, followed by a full closure on Christmas Day.
Are banks open on the Day After Thanksgiving 2026?
Most US banks are open for regular business, though some branches may have reduced hours as it is not a federal bank holiday.
← Previous Bond Market Holidays

Germany CPI Flash November 2026
2026-11-27 08:00 - 09:00 (America/New_York)
Next Germany CPI Flash: Friday, November 27, 2026 at 2:00 pm CET (8:00 am ET, 1:00 pm London). Covers October 2026 data.
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
+2.9% y/y (August 2026, provisional)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Germany CPI Flash
Germany’s flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2026 is due on November 27, 2026, at approximately 8:00 am ET (2:00 pm CET, 1:00 pm London time). The release comes from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis) and covers price data for October 2026. Because Destatis has not yet confirmed this specific publication date on its release calendar, the schedule above should be treated as an estimate based on the usual pattern: Destatis typically publishes the flash CPI on the last working day of the reference month or the first working day of the following month. Full background and the schedule of related releases is available on the Germany CPI Flash hub page.
What is the Germany CPI Flash?
The CPI Flash is Destatis’s early, provisional estimate of how much prices for a typical basket of consumer goods and services rose or fell over the previous 12 months. It covers everyday items such as food, rent, energy, transport and healthcare, weighted according to how households actually spend their money. Because it is released roughly two weeks ahead of the final, confirmed CPI figure, the flash estimate is the first hard signal markets get on German inflation for that month.
Germany is the largest economy in the euro area, so its inflation figures carry outsized weight for the European Central Bank (ECB) when it sets interest rates for the whole currency bloc. The release also includes the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), a version of the CPI calculated using a methodology standardised across European Union member states, which is the specific measure the ECB targets when judging whether inflation is close to its 2% goal.
Traders, economists and journalists watch the flash reading closely because it moves the euro, European government bond yields and rate expectations within seconds of publication, well before the full breakdown of the final report becomes available a fortnight later.
When is the November flash CPI released?
Destatis is scheduled to publish the flash estimate for October 2026 on Friday, November 27, 2026, at 8:00 am ET, which is 2:00 pm in Germany (CET) and 1:00 pm in London. The figures appear first as a press release on the Destatis release calendar, alongside the underlying data tables in the GENESIS-Online database. As noted above, this date has not been formally confirmed by Destatis at the time of writing and is based on the office’s usual monthly release rhythm.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast from a major survey provider such as Reuters or Bloomberg has not yet been published for the October 2026 flash reading, as economist polls typically appear only in the days immediately before the release. Destatis itself has not published an actual figure for this report at the time of writing. The most recently confirmed print available is the July 2026 final CPI reading, with August 2026 provisional flash data also released; according to Destatis, the year-on-year inflation rate stood at +2.8% in July 2026, up from +2.3% in June 2026 and +2.6% in May 2026. Destatis’s own preliminary commentary pointed to an expected reading of around +2.9% for August 2026, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) estimated at +2.4%.

Measure
Prior (August 2026, provisional)
Consensus (October 2026)

Headline CPI, year on year
+2.9%
Not yet published

Core CPI, year on year (ex food and energy)
+2.4%
Not yet published

Headline CPI, month on month
+0.2%
Not yet published

HICP, year on year
+2.9%
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Euro could firm and eurozone bond yields could rise, as traders push back the timing of further ECB rate cuts
Prices are rising faster than expected, which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer across the euro area

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction, as the outcome confirms existing ECB rate-path expectations
Inflation is behaving roughly as economists predicted, so little changes for savers or borrowers in the near term

Below consensus
Euro could soften and eurozone bond yields could fall, as markets price in a higher chance of ECB easing
Prices are cooling faster than expected, which could eventually feed through to lower interest rates on loans and mortgages

These are possible market reactions described by analysts and should not be read as predictions of what will actually happen. As FXStreet has noted of past German inflation surprises, currency moves around this release are often described as measured rather than dramatic, since the euro tends to react more strongly to the eurozone-wide HICP flash that follows a few days later.
Why does this release matter right now?
German inflation has been on a bumpy path through 2026. Destatis figures show the annual rate falling to +1.9% in February 2026 before climbing back above the ECB’s 2% target for most of the spring and summer, reaching +2.9% in April and hovering in the high 2% range by mid-year. Energy prices have been repeatedly cited by Destatis President Ruth Brand as a key swing factor, with motor fuel and electricity costs pushing the headline rate around even as core inflation has stayed comparatively steady near 2.4% to 2.5%.
The ECB has been weighing this trend carefully. Because German inflation feeds directly into the eurozone-wide HICP figure that the ECB targets, any acceleration or slowdown in this release shapes expectations for the Bank’s next Governing Council meeting. A run of higher-than-expected German prints through the middle of 2026 has already led some economists to push back their forecasts for further ECB rate cuts, while a cooler reading in October could revive expectations of a more dovish path into 2027.
Beyond the eurozone, the release matters for global markets because Germany is Europe’s largest exporter and a bellwether for continental demand. A hotter-than-expected reading can nudge up European bond yields, which in turn influences borrowing costs for governments and companies well beyond Germany’s borders, including in the UK gilt market and in dollar-denominated eurozone corporate debt.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and loans: if German inflation runs hot, it can delay ECB rate cuts, which keeps eurozone mortgage and business loan rates elevated for longer. A cooler reading has the opposite effect, potentially bringing forward cheaper borrowing costs across the euro area.
Savings: higher-for-longer ECB rates generally mean better returns on eurozone savings accounts and fixed deposits, while a dovish shift after a soft reading could see those rates edge down over time.
Jobs and wages: persistent inflation above the ECB’s target can squeeze real wages for German and eurozone workers if pay rises fail to keep pace, while falling inflation can ease that pressure and support household spending power.
Prices: the release is essentially a direct read on the cost of everyday items in Germany, from groceries to petrol, so a higher print signals continued pressure on household budgets, while a lower one suggests some relief at the till.
Investments, pensions and currencies: the euro and eurozone government bonds tend to move on surprises in this data, which affects returns on European equity funds, bond funds and pension holdings for investors well beyond Germany, including in the UK and Asia where funds often hold eurozone assets. A stronger euro can also make imports into the eurozone cheaper, while a weaker euro can push up the cost of goods and holidays priced in other currencies for European consumers.
Related events

Previous release: Germany CPI Flash, October 2026
The eurozone-wide HICP flash estimate from Eurostat, typically published a few days after the German figure
The next European Central Bank Governing Council monetary policy decision, which weighs this data alongside inflation readings from other eurozone members

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Germany CPI Flash released?
The flash estimate is expected around 8:00 am ET, which is 2:00 pm in Germany (CET) and 1:00 pm in London, though Destatis has not formally confirmed this specific date.
How should I read the headline versus core figure?
The headline rate includes volatile items like food and energy, while the core rate strips these out to show the underlying trend that the ECB watches most closely for signs of persistent inflation pressure.
How does this release affect ECB interest rate decisions?
German inflation feeds into the eurozone-wide HICP that the ECB targets, so a run of higher or lower German readings can shift expectations for whether the ECB holds, cuts or raises interest rates at its next meeting.
How does this release affect ECB interest rate decisions?
German inflation feeds into the eurozone-wide HICP that the ECB targets, so a run of higher or lower German readings can shift expectations for whether the ECB holds, cuts or raises interest rates at its next meeting.
Where can I find the official release?
The official press release and data tables are published on the Destatis release calendar and in the GENESIS-Online database.
When is the next Germany CPI release?
Destatis typically publishes the flash estimate roughly one month after the reference period, with the final confirmed CPI figure following around two weeks after the flash estimate.
← Previous Germany CPI Flash

China Official PMI November 2026
2026-11-29 20:30 - 21:30 (America/New_York)
Next China Official PMI: Monday, November 30, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (8:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
50.4 manufacturing / 50.1 non-manufacturing (March 2026, most recently confirmed)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous China Official PMI
China’s Official PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for November 2026 is due for release on Monday, November 30, 2026, at 9:30 am China Standard Time, which is 8:30 pm ET on Sunday, November 29 in the United States and 1:30 am on Monday, November 30 in London. The figures are published jointly by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) on the NBS website. The release covers business conditions during November 2026 across manufacturing, non-manufacturing (services and construction), and a composite reading. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
What is the China Official PMI?
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at thousands of enterprises across China, asking whether business conditions such as new orders, output, employment, prices and delivery times improved, worsened or stayed the same compared with the previous month. The manufacturing PMI is drawn from roughly 3,200 manufacturing firms, according to TrendForce’s DataTrack, and is weighted across five sub-indices including new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery times and raw material inventories.
A reading above 50.0 signals that activity is expanding compared with the prior month, while a reading below 50.0 signals contraction. There is no comparison against a fixed baseline: it is purely a month-on-month diffusion index. The non-manufacturing PMI, published alongside it, covers services and construction and is watched closely because services now make up the larger share of China’s economy.
Markets watch this release because it is the first hard indicator of Chinese activity for any given month, arriving days before trade, credit and industrial output data. Global investors, particularly those exposed to commodities, shipping, and Asian equities, use it to gauge demand from the world’s second-largest economy.
When is the November PMI released?
The November 2026 China Official PMI is scheduled for release on November 30, 2026, at 9:30 am local time in Beijing (8:30 pm ET on the preceding US evening, 1:30 am in London). It is published on the NBS website in both Chinese and English. China typically releases this data on the last calendar day of the reference month, or the first business day after it, rather than waiting for the start of the following month like most other economies’ PMIs.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 release had not been published at the time of writing; economist estimates from Reuters and Bloomberg polls typically appear in the days immediately before the release date. The most recently confirmed official readings available were for early 2026, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.4 in March 2026, up from 49.0 in February 2026, according to Trading Economics. The specific October and November 2026 prints were not independently verifiable in the sources available for this preview, so readers should check the official NBS release or a live economic calendar closer to the date for the confirmed prior figure and consensus.

Measure
Prior (most recently confirmed)
Consensus

Manufacturing PMI
50.4 (March 2026)
Not yet published

Non-manufacturing PMI
50.1 (March 2026)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Read as a sign that stimulus measures and export demand are gaining traction, potentially supportive for commodity currencies and Asian equities
Chinese factories and services firms reported stronger business than expected, which can lift confidence in global growth

In line
Limited market reaction, seen as confirmation of the existing trend near the 50 expansion threshold
The economy is broadly performing as expected, neither accelerating nor slowing sharply

Below consensus
Could renew concerns about weak domestic demand and add pressure for further policy support, a theme frequently flagged by analysts at Trading Economics and other data providers
Businesses are reporting weaker conditions than hoped, which can weigh on commodity prices and sentiment towards China-exposed assets

Why does this release matter right now?
China’s manufacturing PMI has spent long stretches hovering either side of the 50 threshold through 2025 and into 2026, reflecting a mix of resilient exports and persistently soft domestic demand. The index fell to 49.0 in October 2025 from 49.8 in September, according to Trading Economics, before recovering to 50.1 in December 2025, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. Early 2026 saw a dip back into contraction around the Lunar New Year holiday before a rebound to 50.4 in March 2026, the strongest print in a year, supported by government spending and export demand tied to global AI-related investment.
Policymakers in Beijing use the PMI as one input into decisions on fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, while foreign central banks and investors treat it as an early gauge of Chinese demand for imported goods, industrial inputs and commodities. A weak reading tends to reinforce expectations that Beijing will lean further into stimulus, while a strong reading can ease pressure for additional support.
Recent China Official PMI readings

Month
Manufacturing PMI
Non-manufacturing PMI

September 2025
49.8
n/a

October 2025
49.0
n/a

December 2025
50.1
50.2

January 2026
49.3
n/a

February 2026
49.0
n/a

March 2026
50.4
50.1

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China and Trading Economics. Some months are omitted where an official non-manufacturing figure was not independently confirmed for this preview.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and interest rates: A weak China PMI can push global bond yields lower as investors seek safety, which can feed through to slightly cheaper fixed mortgage rates in the US, UK and Europe. A strong reading can have the opposite effect, nudging yields and borrowing costs up.
Jobs and wages: Manufacturers and exporters in Asia, Europe and commodity-producing nations such as Australia and Brazil are sensitive to Chinese demand. A run of weak PMI prints can eventually show up as softer hiring at firms that sell machinery, metals or components into China.
Prices at home: China is a major buyer of oil, copper and other raw materials. Stronger Chinese activity tends to support commodity prices, which can filter into fuel and household goods prices elsewhere; weaker activity can help keep those costs down.
Investments and pensions: Chinese and broader Asian equities, along with commodity-linked stocks and funds held in pensions, often move on the day of this release. A surprise in either direction can cause short-term volatility in diversified portfolios with exposure to emerging markets.
Currencies: The Chinese yuan, the Australian dollar and other commodity currencies frequently react to PMI surprises, and moves can spill over into the pound, euro and dollar through shifts in risk appetite and trade flows.
Related events

Previous release: China Official PMI, October 2026
China’s Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs, a separate private-sector survey published a day or two after the official figures
China trade balance and industrial production data, typically released in the following weeks

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the China Official PMI released?
The November 2026 release is due at 9:30 am China Standard Time on November 30, 2026, which is 8:30 pm ET the previous evening and 1:30 am in London.
How do I read the PMI number?
A reading above 50.0 means activity expanded compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50.0 means it contracted; the further from 50.0, the stronger the signal.
Does the China PMI affect central bank policy elsewhere?
It is not a direct input for the Federal Reserve, Bank of England or European Central Bank, but sharp swings can influence their assessment of global growth and commodity price pressures, which feed into inflation forecasts.
Where can I find the official release?
The data is published on the National Bureau of Statistics of China website, with an English-language version typically posted within days of the Chinese release.
When is the next China Official PMI due?
The December 2026 reading is expected around the final day of December 2026 or the first business day of January 2027, following the usual monthly pattern.
← Previous China Official PMI

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI December 2026
2026-11-30 20:45 - 21:45 (America/New_York)
Next China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, December 1, 2026 at 9:45 am CST (8:45 pm ET, 1:45 am London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
50.9 (September 2026, most recent confirmed print at time of writing)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November 2026 is scheduled for release on December 1, 2026, at approximately 9:45 am China Standard Time, which is 8:45 pm ET on December 1 in the US and 1:45 am London time on December 2 in the UK. The figures are compiled by S&P Global on behalf of Chinese financial media group Caixin and cover business conditions in China’s manufacturing sector during November 2026. Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
What is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI?
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based gauge of activity at Chinese factories. Purchasing managers at more than 500 manufacturing companies are asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchased items have improved, worsened or stayed the same compared with the previous month. Those answers are combined into a single diffusion index: a reading above 50 signals expansion, a reading below 50 signals contraction, and 50 itself marks the boundary between growth and shrinkage.
Unlike the official manufacturing PMI produced by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which leans towards larger, state-owned firms, the Caixin survey focuses on small and medium-sized private manufacturers. That makes it a useful cross-check on the health of the private sector, which employs a large share of China’s workforce and is more exposed to swings in export demand.
Markets watch the release closely because China is the world’s second-largest economy and its largest consumer of industrial metals. A weakening Caixin PMI can flag softer demand for commodities, shipping and components sourced from Asia, Europe and the Americas, while a stronger reading can support risk appetite across global equity and currency markets.
When is the November Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The report is due on December 1, 2026, published by S&P Global and Caixin Insight Group on the Caixin website and through S&P Global’s PMI release channels. The Caixin manufacturing survey traditionally appears on the first business day of the month, immediately after China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI. As with most monthly indicator pages on this calendar, the exact release date shown here has not yet been formally confirmed by the publisher and is estimated from that established pattern; readers should check the official S&P Global release calendar nearer the time.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 Caixin Manufacturing PMI has not yet been published. Analyst estimates for this release typically emerge in the days immediately before publication, gathered by data providers such as Reuters and Trading Economics as part of their economic calendars.
The most recent confirmed print available at the time of writing was the September 2026 reading of 50.9, which had eased from 51.7 the previous month, according to TrendForce’s DataTrack service, which cited slower growth in production and new orders as the pace of China’s recovery cooled.

Measure
Prior confirmed print
Consensus

Caixin Manufacturing PMI
50.9 (September 2026)
Not yet published

Change from prior month
Down from 51.7 (August 2026)
Not applicable

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Read as a sign Chinese manufacturers are coping better with soft domestic demand, potentially lifting sentiment towards Asian equities and commodity-linked currencies
Factories reported more new orders or output than economists expected, suggesting the sector is holding up or improving

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction, since the number confirms the trend already priced in by investors
Manufacturing conditions changed roughly as expected, neither a relief nor a fresh worry

Below consensus
Could add to concerns about China’s growth momentum, an outcome commentators such as those at TrendForce have linked to sluggish domestic demand and calls for more infrastructure spending
Factories reported weaker conditions than forecast, which may renew pressure on Beijing to support the economy

These are possible market reactions described by analysts, not predictions of how markets will actually move on the day.
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s manufacturing sector has spent much of 2026 hovering close to the 50 boom-or-bust line, with readings such as the September dip to 50.9 from 51.7 reflecting what TrendForce described as domestic demand dragging on the recovery even as the survey stayed in expansion territory. The official NBS PMI has periodically slipped below 50 during the same period, according to Investing.com’s economic calendar commentary, underlining a divergence between the private-sector Caixin survey and the state-focused official gauge.
Investors are watching whether Beijing’s infrastructure spending and stimulus measures feed through into stronger new orders, and whether export demand holds up given ongoing trade tensions. Any renewed weakness in the Caixin PMI would likely intensify calls, noted in recent commentary, for further policy support from Chinese authorities.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and borrowing costs: a weak Chinese PMI can pull down global bond yields as investors seek safety, which can feed through to slightly lower mortgage rates in the US, UK and eurozone, though the effect is usually modest and indirect.
Savings: savers are unlikely to see a direct effect, but persistent weakness in Chinese manufacturing can weigh on the interest rate outlook of central banks whose economies are exposed to Chinese demand.
Jobs and wages: workers in commodity exporting economies such as Australia, and in manufacturing supply chains across Asia and Europe, are more exposed to swings in Chinese factory demand than most.
Prices: a stronger PMI can support commodity prices, including metals and energy, which can feed into the cost of goods and fuel for households worldwide.
Investments, pensions and currencies: the Chinese yuan, Asian equity markets and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar tend to react most directly to this release, with knock-on effects for globally diversified pension funds.

Related events

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, November 2026
China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI, usually released the same day
China Caixin Services and Composite PMI, published a few days after the manufacturing survey

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The November 2026 report is expected around 9:45 am China Standard Time on December 1, 2026, which is 8:45 pm ET the same day and 1:45 am London time on December 2.
How should I read the PMI number?
A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing activity compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction; the further from 50, the stronger the signal.
Does the Caixin PMI affect interest rate decisions?
It is not a policy tool itself, but persistent weakness or strength can influence how central banks and investors assess global growth risks, indirectly affecting bond yields and rate expectations.
Where can I find the official release?
The official figures are published by S&P Global and Caixin Insight Group, with release dates listed on S&P Global’s PMI release calendar.
When is the next Caixin Manufacturing PMI due?
The following report, covering December 2026, is typically released on the first business day of January 2027.
← Previous China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Eurozone Flash CPI December 2026
2026-12-01 05:00 - 06:00 (America/New_York)
Next Eurozone Flash CPI: Tuesday, December 1, 2026 at 11:00 am CET (5:00 am ET, 10:00 am London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
3.0% HICP annual inflation (April 2026, final Eurostat reading); October/November 2026 figures not yet independently verified
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Eurozone Flash CPI.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Eurozone Flash CPI
The Eurozone Flash CPI for November 2026 is due on Tuesday, December 1, 2026 at 11:00 am CET, which is 5:00 am ET and 10:00 am London time. The release is published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, and gives the first, fastest read on how much prices rose across the 20 countries that use the euro during November 2026. Full schedule and background: Eurozone Flash CPI.
This is a flash estimate, meaning it is a rapid calculation based on early, partial price data, not the fully audited final figure. Eurostat typically revises the number slightly a few weeks later once complete national data comes in, though large revisions are unusual.
What is the Eurozone Flash CPI?
The flash CPI tracks the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, or HICP, which measures the average change in prices paid by households across the euro area for a fixed basket of goods and services: food, energy, housing costs, transport, healthcare, leisure and more. Eurostat calculates it by combining preliminary national inflation data submitted by member states’ statistical offices before their own final figures are ready, which is why the euro area number often lands before some individual country data is finalised.
Markets watch this release closely because it is the main input the European Central Bank (ECB) uses to judge whether inflation is moving towards its 2% target. The headline figure includes volatile items like energy and unprocessed food, so analysts also watch core inflation, which strips these out to show the underlying price trend. A basis point, often shortened to bp, is one hundredth of a percentage point and is the unit used to describe changes in interest rates that the ECB may set in response to this data.
Because the euro is shared by 20 countries with very different local conditions, from low-inflation Sweden and Denmark to higher-inflation Romania and Bulgaria, the euro area average can mask sharp differences at the national level. Eurostat publishes country breakdowns alongside the headline figure.
When is the November flash CPI released?
Eurostat is scheduled to release the November 2026 flash estimate on December 1, 2026 at 11:00 am CET (5:00 am ET, 10:00 am London). It appears on the Eurostat euro indicators release calendar and is published as a short statistical release on the Eurostat website, usually followed a few weeks later by the fuller, revised HICP report that includes more detailed component breakdowns.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the November 2026 flash estimate has not yet been published. Economist surveys for this release, typically compiled by Reuters or Bloomberg in the days before publication, tend to appear closer to the release date, so figures may firm up as December 1 approaches.
The most recently confirmed Eurostat figures available show that euro area annual inflation was 3.0% in April 2026, up from 2.6% in March 2026, according to Eurostat’s official euro indicators release. A year earlier, in the November 2025 flash estimate, euro area inflation stood at 2.2%, up from 2.1% in October 2025. These figures illustrate the general upward drift in euro area inflation through 2026, though the specific October and November 2026 readings that would normally sit directly ahead of this release were not independently verifiable from public sources at the time this page was written.

Measure
Most recent confirmed reading
Consensus for November 2026

Headline annual HICP inflation
3.0% (April 2026, final)
Not yet published

EU-wide annual inflation
3.2% (April 2026, final)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as a sign the ECB may hold interest rates higher for longer, since policymakers watch inflation prints closely when deciding on rates
Prices are rising faster than expected, which could keep borrowing costs elevated and squeeze household budgets further

In line with consensus
Likely limited market reaction, as traders would see this as confirming the existing policy path
Inflation is behaving broadly as expected, so no major surprises for mortgage rates or savings in the near term

Below consensus
Could support expectations of interest rate cuts or a pause in tightening from the ECB
Prices are rising more slowly than feared, which could eventually feed through to lower borrowing costs

These are possibilities based on how markets have typically reacted to inflation surprises, not predictions of what will happen on December 1, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
The ECB has repeatedly stated that its policy decisions are data dependent, meaning each new inflation reading feeds directly into its assessment of whether interest rates need to rise, fall or stay unchanged to keep inflation near its 2% medium-term target. Eurostat’s own release calendar and data show that euro area inflation rose over the course of 2026, moving from 2.2% in the November 2025 flash estimate to 3.0% by the final April 2026 reading, a trend that has kept inflation above the ECB’s target for an extended period. Large gaps between individual eurozone countries, with rates as low as 0.5% in Sweden and as high as 9.5% in Romania in the April 2026 data, also complicate the ECB’s task of setting one interest rate for the whole currency bloc.
What It Means for Your Money
For anyone with a mortgage in the eurozone, this release matters because it feeds into the ECB’s interest rate decisions, which set the base cost of borrowing for banks across the currency area. A higher than expected inflation print could reduce the chances of near-term rate cuts, keeping variable mortgage repayments higher for longer. A lower print could support hopes of cheaper borrowing in the months ahead.
Savers with euro-denominated deposit accounts are affected in the opposite direction: higher interest rates generally mean better returns on cash savings, while a sustained fall in inflation could eventually see banks reduce the rates they pay.
For wages and jobs, persistent high inflation tends to feed into pay negotiations, as workers and unions push for larger increases to keep pace with the rising cost of living. This in turn can influence how quickly, or slowly, the ECB feels able to bring rates down.
Everyday prices, from groceries to energy bills, are the most direct effect: this release simply measures how much they have already changed, giving households across the eurozone (and by extension trading partners in the UK, the US and Asia) a read on the direction of living costs.
For investors and pension savers, eurozone inflation surprises can move government bond yields, the euro’s exchange rate against the pound and dollar, and stock market sentiment, since interest rate expectations affect the value of company earnings and future ECB policy. A weaker euro following a soft inflation print, for instance, can make imports more expensive for eurozone consumers but cheaper for UK or US buyers of European goods.
Related events

Eurozone Flash CPI, November 2026 release, the previous month’s flash estimate
The European Central Bank’s next interest rate decision, which typically follows the flash CPI release by one to two weeks
The US Consumer Price Index report, published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which investors often compare against eurozone inflation trends

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 Eurozone flash CPI released?
Eurostat is scheduled to publish the flash estimate on December 1, 2026 at 11:00 am CET, which is 5:00 am ET and 10:00 am London time.
How should I read the flash CPI figure?
Look at the annual percentage change first, then compare it with the prior month and any published consensus forecast; a rise above expectations generally signals stronger price pressure, while a figure below expectations suggests inflation is cooling.
How does this release affect ECB interest rates?
The ECB uses inflation data, including flash CPI estimates, as one of its main inputs when deciding whether to raise, lower or hold its key interest rates, since its mandate is to keep euro area inflation close to 2% over the medium term.
Where can I find the official release?
The figures are published directly on the Eurostat euro indicators release calendar and on the Eurostat website under euro area inflation statistics.
When is the next Eurozone flash CPI release?
Eurostat typically publishes the flash estimate on the first business day of the following month, so the December 2026 flash estimate, covering that month’s data, would normally follow in early January 2027.
← Previous Eurozone Flash CPI

US ISM Manufacturing PMI December 2026
2026-12-01 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, December 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
55.6 (July 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December 2026 is due to be released on December 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The report covers manufacturing activity for November 2026. Full schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
What is the ISM Manufacturing PMI?
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives at manufacturing firms across the United States. Respondents from around 400 companies in 18 industries are asked whether business conditions such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories have improved, worsened or stayed the same compared with the previous month.
Those responses are combined into a single diffusion index. A reading above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding, a reading below 50 means it is contracting. The distance from 50 indicates the pace of change, so a reading of 58 signals faster growth than 52.
Markets watch the ISM Manufacturing PMI closely because it is one of the earliest and most reliable monthly indicators of the health of US industry, arriving before most official government data for the same month. Sub-indices such as New Orders and Prices Paid also give an early read on demand and inflation pressure in supply chains, which the Federal Reserve monitors when setting interest rates.
When is the December ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
The report is scheduled for Tuesday, December 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London), published directly by the Institute for Supply Management on its website. The ISM has not yet confirmed this specific date at the time of writing; ISM typically publishes the Manufacturing PMI on the first business day of the month following the survey period, so December 1, 2026 is the expected date based on that established pattern.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 data (to be published on December 1, 2026) has not yet been published. Economists’ estimates typically become available in the days immediately before the release, compiled by outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg from surveys of forecasters.
The most recent confirmed reading available at the time of writing is for July 2026. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July 2026, up from 53.3 in June 2026, according to TD Economics’ analysis of the official ISM report, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion and the strongest reading since May 2022.

Measure
Prior (June 2026)
Latest confirmed (July 2026)

Headline PMI
53.3
55.6

New Orders Index
56.0
56.7

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Read as a sign of resilient factory demand; could support the dollar and push Treasury yields higher if it feeds expectations that the Fed will hold rates for longer
Factories are busier than expected, which can be a good sign for jobs and growth but may also keep borrowing costs elevated

In line with consensus
Likely limited market reaction, since the data broadly confirms the trend traders had already priced in
Manufacturing is behaving roughly as expected, so little changes for interest rate expectations

Below consensus
Could be read as a sign of cooling demand, potentially supporting expectations of interest rate cuts and weighing on the dollar
Factories are seeing less business than hoped, which can be a warning sign for jobs and wider economic growth

These are possible reactions described by market commentators, not predictions. Actual moves depend on the wider data picture on the day, including labour market and inflation releases around the same time.
Why does this release matter right now?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been a closely watched barometer of the US industrial cycle through 2026. According to TD Economics, the index climbed for seven straight months into July 2026, with production and new orders both strengthening and 15 of 18 tracked industries reporting expansion. That trend followed an extended period earlier in the expansion where the Employment Index remained below 50, a point ISM’s Susan Spence highlighted in the June 2026 report when factory hiring intentions were still soft even as overall activity improved.
Investors and the Federal Reserve watch this report for signs of whether tariffs, borrowing costs and global demand are helping or hurting US factories, and whether price pressures in the Prices Paid sub-index are building or easing. A run of strong prints can shift expectations for how long the Fed keeps interest rates on hold, while a sudden slowdown can revive talk of rate cuts.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loans: Manufacturing strength that suggests the economy is running hot can push bond yields up, which tends to feed through to higher fixed mortgage rates in the US and, indirectly, to global borrowing costs. Weak factory data can have the opposite effect.
Savings: If the report shifts expectations about Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, it can move the rates banks offer on savings accounts and money market funds in the months ahead.
Jobs and wages: The Employment Index within the report gives an early signal on factory hiring. A weakening trend can be a warning sign for job security in manufacturing-heavy regions and supply chains.
Prices: The Prices Paid sub-index tracks the cost of raw materials for manufacturers. A sharp rise can be an early sign that inflation pressure is building further down the supply chain, which can eventually show up in shop prices.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Equity markets, particularly industrial and materials shares, often react to the headline number and New Orders sub-index. A stronger-than-expected US reading can also lift the dollar against the pound and euro, affecting the value of overseas holdings for UK and European investors, while a weak reading tends to have the opposite effect.

Related events

Previous release: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, November 2026
Full series schedule and history: US ISM Manufacturing PMI hub page
Related US labour market and inflation releases, including the monthly jobs report and CPI, are also worth checking around this date for the fuller economic picture

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
It is scheduled for 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London, on December 1, 2026.
How do I read the ISM Manufacturing PMI number?
A reading above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 means it is contracting. The further from 50, the faster the pace of change.
How does this report affect interest rates?
The Federal Reserve monitors manufacturing activity and price pressures shown in the report’s sub-indices as part of its broader assessment of the economy, so persistently strong or weak readings can influence expectations for future interest rate decisions.
Where can I find the official ISM Manufacturing PMI release?
The report is published directly by the Institute for Supply Management on its website, ismworld.org, in the ISM PMI Reports section.
Where can I find the next ISM Manufacturing PMI released after this one?
The following report, covering December 2026 data, is expected in early January 2027, following ISM’s usual pattern of publishing on the first business day of the month.
← Previous US ISM Manufacturing PMI

US JOLTS Job Openings December 2026
2026-12-01 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, December 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers October 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
7.3 million (July 2026, most recent confirmed reading)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US JOLTS Job Openings.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US JOLTS Job Openings
The US JOLTS Job Openings report for October 2026 is released on December 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS, measures how many positions employers were actively trying to fill during the reference month, alongside hiring and separations. Full schedule and background: US JOLTS Job Openings.
What is the JOLTS job openings report?
JOLTS is a monthly survey of roughly 21,000 US business establishments run by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It counts three main flows in the labour market: job openings (unfilled positions employers are actively recruiting for), hires (people added to payrolls) and separations, which splits further into quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.
The headline figure watched by markets is the total number of job openings, usually expressed in millions, along with the job openings rate (openings as a share of employment plus openings). A second closely tracked figure is the quits rate, which economists use as a proxy for worker confidence: people tend to quit more readily when they believe they can find another job easily.
The Federal Reserve pays close attention to JOLTS because it captures labour demand before it shows up in the monthly non-farm payrolls report. A wide gap between openings and the number of unemployed workers points to a tight labour market that can put upward pressure on wages and, eventually, inflation.
When is the October 2026 JOLTS report released?
The BLS publishes the JOLTS release for October 2026 data on Tuesday, December 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time). The full statistical tables and commentary are published on the BLS JOLTS website. JOLTS data run with roughly a two-month lag to the reference month, which is why the October reading is not published until early December.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the October 2026 release has not yet been published. Polls of economists compiled by outlets such as Dow Jones and Reuters are typically released only in the days immediately before the report, so figures will need to be checked closer to December 1, 2026.
The most recent confirmed reading at the time of writing is for July 2026: job openings were “little changed at 7.3 million,” according to the BLS July 2026 JOLTS release. Openings had earlier jumped to 7.618 million in April 2026, “the highest level since May 2024,” according to Advisor Perspectives, before holding around 7.6 million in May.

Measure
Prior reading
Consensus

Job openings (millions)
7.3 million (July 2026)
Not yet published

Quits rate
Down from prior month (July 2026)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as a sign of a resilient labour market, potentially reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, according to analysts who track JOLTS alongside payrolls data
More jobs are being advertised than expected, which can support wage growth but may also keep borrowing costs higher for longer

In line with consensus
Markets are likely to treat the release as confirming the existing view of a “low-hire, low-fire” labour market, a description used by Oxford Economics economist Matthew Martin
The jobs market is neither strengthening nor weakening sharply, so little changes for interest rate expectations

Below consensus
Could be interpreted as a cooling labour market, potentially firming expectations for further Fed rate cuts, according to economists who watch the openings-to-unemployed ratio
Employers are advertising fewer jobs, which can eventually translate into slower hiring and weaker wage growth

Why does this release matter right now?
The Federal Reserve has used JOLTS data throughout 2026 to judge whether labour demand is cooling gently or sharply. Openings surged to 7.618 million in April 2026, the highest level in nearly two years, before easing back to 7.3 million by July, described by the BLS as “little changed” month on month. Oxford Economics economist Matthew Martin said in a note on the April data that “the labour market remains mostly stable,” with both quits and layoffs ticking down, a pattern typically described as low-hire, low-fire.
Because JOLTS lags the reference month by roughly two months, the October 2026 report gives the Fed a delayed but still useful cross-check against more timely indicators such as weekly jobless claims and the monthly non-farm payrolls report. Traders in interest rate futures markets use shifts in the openings and quits data, alongside these other releases, to adjust the probability they assign to future Fed rate decisions.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and borrowing: A weaker-than-expected JOLTS report can nudge US Treasury yields lower, which sometimes feeds through to US mortgage rates and, indirectly, to global bond markets that influence UK and eurozone borrowing costs.
Savings rates: If the data shift expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, savings account and money market fund returns in the US could adjust in the following months, with the direction of savings rates in the UK and eurozone often following a similar pattern with a lag.
Jobs and wages: A falling quits rate suggests workers feel less confident about finding a new role, which can slow wage growth. This is watched by anyone renegotiating pay or considering a job change, not just in the US but across economies closely linked to US demand.
Investments and pensions: Equity markets, including those held in workplace pensions, often react to what JOLTS implies for interest rates rather than the jobs numbers themselves. A soft reading that raises hopes of rate cuts can lift share prices, while a strong reading can weigh on them.
Currencies: Surprises in JOLTS can move the US dollar against the pound and the euro, since they feed into expectations for the gap between US and other major central bank interest rates.

Related events

US JOLTS Job Openings, November 2026 report (September 2026 data)
US non-farm payrolls report, typically released on the first Friday of the month
Federal Reserve interest rate decision, usually held roughly a week or two after the JOLTS release

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the October 2026 JOLTS report released?
The BLS publishes the report on December 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm London time.
How should I read the JOLTS job openings number?
A rising number of job openings generally signals stronger labour demand, while a falling number, alongside a falling quits rate, tends to signal a cooling labour market.
How does JOLTS affect interest rate decisions?
The Federal Reserve treats JOLTS as one of several labour market indicators used to judge whether the jobs market is loosening or tightening, which feeds into its assessment of inflation risk and its interest rate decisions.
Where can I find the official JOLTS release?
The BLS publishes the full release and data tables on its JOLTS website.
When is the next JOLTS report after this one?
The BLS typically publishes JOLTS data roughly a month after this release, covering the following reference month, though exact dates depend on the BLS release schedule.
← Previous US JOLTS Job Openings

Eurozone Unemployment December 2026
2026-12-02 05:00 - 06:00 (America/New_York)
Next Eurozone Unemployment: Wednesday, December 2, 2026 at 11:00 am CET (5:00 am ET, 10:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
To be confirmed by Eurostat closer to release
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Eurozone Unemployment.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Eurozone Unemployment
Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, releases its monthly euro area unemployment report on Wednesday, December 2, 2026, at 11:00am CET (5:00am ET, 10:00am London). This release covers the unemployment rate for October 2026, the labour-market snapshot for the 20 countries that use the euro. Full schedule and background: Eurozone Unemployment.
The unemployment rate measures the share of the labour force that is jobless but actively seeking work, seasonally adjusted so that normal hiring patterns (such as seasonal retail or agricultural work) do not distort the monthly comparison. Eurostat also publishes a breakdown by age group and by member state, which tends to show wide gaps between economies such as Germany and Spain.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published for this release. Economists surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg typically publish their median estimate in the days immediately before the release date, once other euro area labour indicators for October have come through.
The euro area unemployment rate has held near historic lows through 2025 and 2026, broadly in the low 6% range, according to Eurostat’s release calendar. The exact prior reading for September 2026 will be confirmed in Eurostat’s official statistical release ahead of this report; readers should check Eurostat’s release calendar for the confirmed figure closer to the date.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Unemployment rate
To be confirmed by Eurostat
Not yet published

Youth unemployment
To be confirmed by Eurostat
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Above consensus
Euro softens slightly, European Central Bank seen more cautious on further rate cuts
More people are out of work than expected, a sign the labour market is cooling

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction
The labour market is behaving as economists expected, no major surprise

Below consensus
Euro can firm modestly, seen as supportive for consumer spending
Fewer people are unemployed than expected, a sign hiring remains resilient

Why it matters this week
The unemployment rate is one of the European Central Bank’s key gauges of how much slack remains in the euro area economy. A tight labour market, where unemployment stays low, tends to keep wage growth firmer, which the ECB watches closely because higher wages can feed into inflation through higher household spending and business costs.
This report lands alongside other euro area data in early December, so investors will also weigh it against inflation and growth figures due around the same time. A weaker than expected reading could add to the case for the ECB to hold or cut interest rates further, while a stronger reading could reinforce the ECB’s caution about cutting rates too quickly, according to commentary on the Eurostat release calendar.
What It Means for Your Money
For savers and mortgage holders across the euro area, this report feeds into the broader picture the ECB uses when setting interest rates. If unemployment rises more than expected, it could support the case for lower borrowing costs over time, which would eventually filter through to cheaper mortgages and loans, though usually with a lag of several months.
For investors holding European equities or eurozone government bonds, a weaker labour market can be a double-edged sword: it may support lower interest rates (generally good for bond prices) but can also signal weaker consumer spending, which weighs on company earnings and pension fund returns.
For anyone holding euros against the pound, dollar or other currencies, a surprise in either direction can move the exchange rate briefly, affecting the cost of European holidays, imported goods, or money sent abroad, though the unemployment rate on its own rarely causes large or lasting currency swings.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 2026 euro area unemployment report released?
Eurostat publishes the report at 11:00am CET (5:00am ET, 10:00am London) on Wednesday, December 2, 2026.
What would count as a big miss from consensus?
Once a consensus is published, a move of 0.2 percentage points or more away from the median forecast would typically be seen as a significant miss, since the euro area unemployment rate usually moves in very small increments month to month.
When is the next euro area unemployment report?
Eurostat typically publishes euro area unemployment data on the first business day of the following month, so the next release covering November 2026 is expected in early January 2027.
Where can I find the official prior reading?
The confirmed prior month’s figure is published in Eurostat’s official statistical release, available through the Eurostat release calendar.
← Previous Eurozone Unemployment

US ADP Employment Report December 2026
2026-12-02 08:15 - 09:15 (America/New_York)
Next US ADP Employment Report: Wednesday, December 2, 2026 at 8:15 am ET (1:15 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not yet available for this release
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US ADP Employment Report.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US ADP Employment Report
The US ADP Employment Report for November 2026 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, December 2, 2026 at 8:15am ET (1:15pm London). It is published by ADP Research, the research arm of payroll processor Automatic Data Processing, in partnership with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The report estimates the change in private sector employment across the United States during November 2026. Full schedule and background: US ADP Employment Report.
Because ADP has not yet confirmed the exact release date this far in advance, this page uses the standard pattern: ADP typically publishes its national employment report on the first Wednesday of the month, two days ahead of the US government’s official jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If ADP shifts the date closer to the time, this page will be updated.
What is the ADP Employment Report?
The ADP National Employment Report measures the month-on-month change in private sector jobs in the United States, using anonymised payroll data from roughly 25 million workers processed through ADP’s own systems. Unlike the government’s non-farm payrolls report, it does not survey businesses directly. Instead, it draws on real payroll transactions, which supporters say makes it a faster, more direct read on hiring, though the two series can diverge sharply in any given month.
The headline figure is the net number of private jobs added or lost during the reference month. ADP also breaks the data down by company size, industry sector and, in some months, pay growth for job stayers and job switchers. Markets watch the report closely because it lands two days before the official non-farm payrolls figure and offers an early, if imperfect, signal of labour market momentum.
The Federal Reserve tracks employment data as one half of its dual mandate, alongside price stability, so a report that hints at cooling or reheating hiring can shift expectations for interest rate decisions. A weaker-than-expected ADP print can raise hopes of rate cuts, while a stronger one can push back against them.
When is the November 2026 ADP report released?
ADP is expected to publish the November 2026 report on December 2, 2026 at 8:15am ET (1:15pm London), on the ADP Research website and through data terminals such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv. As noted above, this date has not been formally confirmed by ADP and is based on the usual first-Wednesday-of-the-month pattern; readers should treat it as indicative until ADP’s own calendar confirms it.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published for the November 2026 ADP report. Economist surveys from outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg are typically compiled only in the days immediately before release, so figures will not be available this far ahead. The most recently published prior reading was also not available through the sources checked for this preview.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Private payrolls, net change
Not yet available
Not yet published

Pay growth, job stayers
Not yet available
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as a sign of resilient hiring, potentially reducing expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts
More jobs were added than expected, suggesting businesses are still confident enough to hire

In line with consensus
Likely to have limited market impact on its own
The labour market is behaving broadly as economists expected, with no major surprise

Below consensus
Could be read as a sign of a cooling labour market, potentially supporting expectations of rate cuts
Fewer jobs were added than expected, which could point to businesses becoming more cautious about hiring

These are possible interpretations only, not predictions. Analysts caution that ADP’s monthly figures have at times diverged meaningfully from the official non-farm payrolls report released two days later by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so any single print should be read with care.
Why does this release matter right now?
Investors and policymakers use ADP’s report as an early gauge of whether the US labour market is cooling, holding steady, or reheating ahead of the official government jobs data. The Federal Reserve weighs employment trends alongside inflation when setting interest rates, so a run of weak or strong ADP prints can shift market pricing for future rate decisions well before the official data confirms the picture. Because the report lands so close to other major US releases in early December, it often sets the tone for how traders interpret the rest of that week’s data.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loans: Signs of a cooling US labour market can lower expectations for future interest rates, which may feed through into cheaper mortgage and loan pricing over time, including for buyers outside the US who track dollar borrowing costs.
Savings rates: If the data supports expectations of Fed rate cuts, savers holding cash in interest-bearing accounts could eventually see lower returns as rates fall.
Jobs and wages: A weak reading can be an early warning sign for hiring more broadly, including in sectors linked to US demand such as exporters in Europe and Asia.
Prices: A tight labour market with strong pay growth can keep inflation pressures elevated, which matters for the cost of everyday goods well beyond the United States.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Equity markets and the dollar often move on labour market surprises. A weaker print can weigh on the dollar against the pound and euro, while a stronger print can support it, affecting the value of international pensions and investment holdings.

Related events

Previous release: US ADP Employment Report, November 2026
The official US non-farm payrolls report, typically released two days after ADP’s figures
US weekly initial jobless claims, a more frequent gauge of labour market conditions

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the ADP employment report released?
The report is scheduled for 8:15am ET, which is 1:15pm in London, though the exact December 2026 date has not yet been formally confirmed by ADP.
How should I read the ADP number?
Focus on the direction and size of the net change in private jobs, and compare it with the prior month’s figure and any published consensus forecast, rather than treating it as a precise measure on its own.
Does the ADP report affect interest rate decisions?
It is one of several employment indicators the Federal Reserve considers, and a surprising reading can shift market expectations for rate decisions, though it rarely changes policy by itself.
Where can I find the official ADP release?
The report is published on the ADP Research website and distributed to major financial data providers at the scheduled release time.
When is the next ADP employment report?
ADP typically publishes its next report on the first Wednesday of the following month, covering data for December 2026.
← Previous US ADP Employment Report

CRM Earnings December 2026
2026-12-02 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next CRM Quarterly Earnings: Wednesday, December 2, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
EPS $4.95 (fiscal Q2 2027, ended July 31, 2026, reported August 26, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous CRM Quarterly Earnings
Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) is expected to report its fiscal third-quarter 2027 results on December 2, 2026, with the earnings call scheduled for 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London). The date has not been confirmed by the company as of writing: Salesforce typically announces quarterly results roughly three months after its previous report, and this slot follows that usual cadence. Full schedule and background on the company’s reporting calendar: CRM earnings history and dates.
Salesforce is the world’s largest customer relationship management (CRM) software provider and a bellwether for enterprise software spending, cloud adoption and, increasingly, corporate investment in artificial intelligence tools such as its Agentforce platform. Its results are watched closely because they offer an early read on whether large businesses are still spending on software subscriptions, a signal that ripples through technology stocks, pension fund holdings and index-tracking investments worldwide.
What is the Salesforce earnings report?
Each quarter, Salesforce publishes audited financial results covering revenue, profit, subscription growth and forward guidance for the following quarter and full fiscal year. Management, led by chief executive Marc Benioff, hosts a call with analysts to discuss the numbers and answer questions on demand trends, customer spending and product adoption, particularly around its newer AI-driven tools. The report matters to markets because Salesforce’s size and enterprise customer base make it a proxy for broader business technology budgets in the US, Europe and Asia.
When is the Salesforce Q3 report and how to follow it
The report is expected around 4:00 pm to 4:05 pm ET when Salesforce typically releases results, ahead of the 12:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm London earnings call noted in this brief. Because the exact date has not been confirmed, investors should check Salesforce’s investor relations website closer to the date for the final confirmation, as is standard practice for companies that have not yet locked in a fiscal quarter’s reporting slot. Results are published as an SEC filing and press release, with the call streamed live via webcast on Salesforce’s investor relations site.
What to expect
A consensus forecast specifically for the December 2, 2026 report has not yet been published, as analyst estimates typically firm up in the weeks before the release. For context, analysts polled by AlphaQuery had pencilled in an average estimate of around $2.32 in earnings per share for the fiscal quarter ending October 31, 2026, though this figure will likely be revised as the date approaches, according to AlphaQuery’s earnings history data.
Analysts are likely to focus on three areas: subscription and support revenue growth, current remaining performance obligation (a measure of future contracted revenue not yet recognised), and adoption metrics for Agentforce, the company’s AI agent product. Guidance for the final quarter of the fiscal year will also be closely watched, since Salesforce has a history of issuing cautious forward guidance even after strong quarterly results.
In its most recent reported quarter, ended July 31, 2026 and announced on August 26, 2026, Salesforce posted earnings per share of $4.95, beating the average analyst estimate of $2.35, according to AlphaQuery. A verified table of the last four quarters’ revenue and EPS could not be confirmed against Salesforce’s own investor relations disclosures at the time of writing, so it has been omitted rather than risk publishing an unverified figure.
Currency movements are also worth watching around this release. Salesforce generates a meaningful share of its revenue outside the United States, so a strengthening dollar against the pound or euro can make its overseas sales look smaller when converted back into dollars, even if underlying demand in the UK or eurozone is stable. Analysts sometimes flag this “currency headwind” on the earnings call itself, and it is one reason a revenue miss does not always mean weaker actual demand.
What the outcome could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat on EPS and revenue, strong guidance
Shares likely rise; software sector sentiment improves
Businesses are still spending on Salesforce’s tools, a sign corporate technology budgets remain healthy

In line with estimates
Muted reaction, focus shifts to guidance commentary
Growth is steady but not accelerating; investors look for clues on next quarter

Miss on revenue or weak guidance
Shares likely fall; renewed scrutiny of enterprise software demand
Companies may be cutting back on software spending, a warning sign for the wider technology sector

What It Means for Your Money
Salesforce is a large constituent of major US indices such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, so its results affect the value of workplace pensions and index funds held by millions of ordinary savers, even those who have never bought an individual share. A strong report can lift broader technology and software stocks, while a weak one can drag down sentiment across the sector, including European and Asian software firms with similar business models. The report has little direct effect on mortgage rates or everyday prices, but it can influence the dollar modestly if it shifts overall views on US corporate earnings strength, which in turn can move the pound and euro against the dollar on the day.
Retail investors following the report should remember that a single quarter rarely changes the underlying investment case for a company of Salesforce’s size. Sharp price swings on the day of results, up or down, often unwind within days once the wider market has absorbed the guidance commentary, so financial advisers generally caution against making large portfolio changes based on one earnings reaction alone.
Related events

Salesforce’s fiscal Q2 2027 earnings report, the previous quarter in this reporting cycle
Other major enterprise software earnings releases in the same window, which often move in sympathy with Salesforce
US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which influence how growth stocks like Salesforce are valued

Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salesforce report earnings on December 2, 2026?
The earnings call is scheduled for 12:00 pm ET, which is 5:00 pm in London, though the exact date has not been confirmed by Salesforce.
Why is the date for this report estimated?
Salesforce had not confirmed its fiscal third-quarter 2027 reporting date at the time of writing; companies typically report roughly three months after the prior quarter, which is the basis for this estimate.
What was Salesforce’s most recent earnings result?
In the quarter ended July 31, 2026, reported on August 26, 2026, Salesforce posted earnings per share of $4.95, beating the average analyst estimate of $2.35, according to AlphaQuery.
Is there a consensus forecast for this report yet?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published for the December 2, 2026 report; estimates typically firm up closer to the confirmed date.
How does Salesforce’s earnings report affect ordinary investors?
Because Salesforce is held widely in pension funds and index-tracking investments, its results can move the value of retirement savings even for people who do not follow the stock directly.
← Previous CRM Quarterly Earnings

US Initial Jobless Claims: December 3, 2026
2026-12-03 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, December 3, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
See November 19, 2026 report
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims
The US Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending November 28, 2026 is due on Thursday, December 3, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). It is published by the US Department of Labor and is one of the most timely gauges of the American labour market, counting how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the previous week. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for this specific week has not yet been published. Economists surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg typically publish their weekly claims estimates only a day or two before release, once more recent labour-market data is available. The prior week’s reading, covering the week ending November 19, 2026, is available in the November 19, 2026 report, and readers should check that page for the latest confirmed figure and its associated four-week moving average.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Initial claims
See November 19, 2026 report
Not yet published

Continuing claims
See November 19, 2026 report
Not yet published

4-week moving average
See November 19, 2026 report
Not applicable

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Above consensus
Bond yields may fall, dollar could soften, on rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts
More people are losing jobs or struggling to find new ones than expected, a sign the labour market is weakening

In line with consensus
Muted market reaction, since traders had already priced in this outcome
The labour market is behaving broadly as economists expected, with no fresh surprises

Below consensus
Yields could rise and the dollar may firm, as a tight jobs market reduces the case for near-term rate cuts
Fewer people are filing for benefits than expected, suggesting employers are still holding onto staff

Basis points (bp) is a unit equal to one hundredth of a percentage point, commonly used to describe interest rate moves. Consensus refers to the average forecast among economists polled by news organisations such as Reuters or Bloomberg ahead of a data release.
Why it matters this week
Weekly claims data feed directly into how investors judge the health of the US labour market, which in turn shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A sustained rise in claims tends to support the case for interest rate cuts, while a run of low readings can push back against that view. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, claims data is tracked closely alongside continuing claims and the four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly noise caused by holidays, seasonal hiring and one-off layoff announcements.
Because the report lands in early December, close to the holiday shopping season, seasonal adjustment factors can be less reliable than usual, and analysts often caution against reading too much into a single week’s number. The trend over several weeks tends to matter more than any individual release.
What It Means for Your Money
For savers, a weaker-than-expected claims report can nudge markets toward pricing in earlier or larger Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which over time tends to reduce the returns on savings accounts and money market funds. For borrowers, the same data can flow through to mortgage rates, since long-term borrowing costs often track expectations for where the Fed is heading.
For anyone holding shares or pension funds invested in equities, a labour market that is cooling too quickly can unsettle stock markets even as it raises hopes of rate cuts, because it raises the risk of a broader economic slowdown. A resilient claims report, by contrast, tends to support confidence in continued spending and corporate earnings, though it can also delay hoped-for rate cuts.
The report can also move the value of the dollar against the pound and the euro. A weak US jobs picture can weigh on the dollar, making US holidays, imports and dollar-denominated investments slightly cheaper for UK and European households, while a strong labour market can have the opposite effect.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 3, 2026 jobless claims report released?
The report is released at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, on Thursday, December 3, 2026.
What counts as a big miss on jobless claims?
There is no fixed threshold, but a move of more than around 20,000 to 30,000 claims away from the consensus forecast, once published, is generally viewed by traders as a significant surprise.
When is the next jobless claims report?
Initial jobless claims are released every Thursday by the US Department of Labor, so the next report covering the following week is due on Thursday, December 10, 2026.
← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims

US ISM Services PMI December 2026
2026-12-03 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US ISM Services PMI: Thursday, December 3, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
A consensus forecast has not yet been published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US ISM Services PMI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US ISM Services PMI
The US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 is scheduled for release on Thursday, December 3, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London), published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The report covers business activity in the services sector, which accounts for the majority of US economic output, during November 2026. Full schedule and background: US ISM Services PMI.
What is the ISM Services PMI?
The ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives across the US services sector, covering industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, transport and hospitality. It is compiled from responses on business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries and prices, and combined into a single headline number.
A reading above 50 signals that the services sector, taken as a whole, is expanding compared with the previous month. A reading below 50 signals contraction. Because services make up around three quarters of US private-sector activity, the index is one of the most closely watched gauges of the health of the broader economy, alongside its manufacturing counterpart.
Investors, economists and central bankers watch the report because it arrives early in the month and gives one of the first readings on how the economy performed, well before slower official data such as GDP. Markets in Europe and Asia also react to the release because a strong or weak US services sector affects global demand, US interest rate expectations and, in turn, currency and bond markets worldwide.
When is the November ISM Services PMI released?
The report is expected on Thursday, December 3, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London), published directly by the Institute for Supply Management on its website. ISM has not yet confirmed this specific date at the time of writing. ISM typically publishes the Services PMI on the first, second or third business day of the month following the survey period, so the December 3 date reflects that usual pattern rather than a confirmed release calendar entry.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 ISM Services PMI has not yet been published. Economist surveys from data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg are typically compiled only in the days immediately before release, and the prior reading for November 2026 (the October 2026 report, published in early November) had also not yet been released at the time this preview was written.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Headline Services PMI
Not yet available
Not yet published

New Orders Index
Not yet available
Not yet published

Employment Index
Not yet available
Not yet published

Once economists’ estimates are published, typically in the week before release, this page will be updated with the prior reading and the consensus figure, both sourced from the official ISM release and reputable polling data.
What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Seen as a sign of resilient services activity, which economists surveyed by Bloomberg often link to reduced expectations of near-term interest rate cuts
The services side of the economy, where most people work, is holding up better than expected, which can support wages but keep borrowing costs higher for longer

In line with consensus
Typically produces limited market reaction, as analysts note the data confirms the existing view of the economy
The economy is behaving broadly as expected, so there is little new information for households or investors to react to

Below consensus
Often interpreted by economists as a sign of a slowing services sector, which can raise expectations that the Federal Reserve may ease policy sooner
Weaker demand for services could point to a softer jobs market and slower growth, which sometimes brings mortgage and loan rates down over time

These are possible market reactions based on how similar releases have historically been read by analysts, not predictions of the actual outcome.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Federal Reserve monitors services sector data closely because it captures where most American jobs and consumer spending activity sit, distinct from the smaller and more volatile manufacturing sector. Recent ISM Services readings have been watched for signs of whether elevated borrowing costs and sticky inflation are cooling demand for services such as travel, healthcare and financial services, or whether the sector continues to expand despite tighter monetary policy.
Any material change in the trend of this index, either an unexpected acceleration or a sharper slowdown, tends to move expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision, which in turn affects Treasury yields, the dollar and, by extension, other currencies including the pound and the euro.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loans: A stronger than expected services reading can push up expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, which tends to keep mortgage and loan rates elevated. A weaker reading can have the opposite effect over time.
Savings: If the data supports higher rates for longer, savers holding cash in interest-bearing accounts may continue to earn relatively attractive returns, though this can change quickly if the outlook shifts.
Jobs and wages: Because services employ the bulk of the US workforce, sustained weakness in this index can be an early warning of a softer jobs market, which matters for wage growth and job security.
Investments and pensions: Equity markets, including those held in pensions and index funds, often react to surprises in this data because it feeds into expectations for corporate earnings and interest rates.
Currencies: A surprise in either direction can move the dollar against the pound and the euro, affecting the cost of imports, the price of holidays abroad and returns on overseas investments for UK and European investors.

Related events

Previous release: US ISM Services PMI, November 2026
ISM Manufacturing PMI, typically released a few business days earlier in the same week
US nonfarm payrolls report, usually released the Friday of the same week, which offers a complementary read on the labour market

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the ISM Services PMI released?
The report is released at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London, on the scheduled release day.
How do I read the ISM Services PMI number?
A figure above 50 indicates the services sector is expanding compared with the previous month, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction.
How does this report affect interest rates?
Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, use this data as one input among many when assessing economic momentum, so a surprise reading can shift market expectations for future interest rate decisions, though it rarely changes policy on its own.
Where can I find the official release?
The official report is published directly by the Institute for Supply Management on its website, ismworld.org.
When is the next ISM Services PMI released?
The following report, covering December 2026 data, is typically published on the first few business days of January 2027, in line with ISM’s usual monthly schedule.
← Previous US ISM Services PMI

US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) December 2026
2026-12-04 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls): Friday, December 4, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls).
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls)
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Employment Situation report for November 2026 on Friday, December 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report will be the final major labour market data point before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on December 9, 2026, for the last rate decision of the year.

At a Glance

Release date: Friday, December 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET
Publishing body: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Reference month: November 2026
Most recent reading: +172,000 jobs, unemployment 4.3% (May 2026)
Market impact: High

What is the Employment Situation Report?
The Employment Situation is the most closely watched monthly economic release in the United States, published by the BLS on the first Friday of each month. It covers two separate surveys: the establishment survey (non-farm payroll employment and average hourly earnings) and the household survey (unemployment rate and labour force participation). Together, they form the most comprehensive monthly snapshot of the US labour market.
The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure measures the net change in employment across all non-agricultural industries. Beyond the headline, analysts examine the unemployment rate, wage growth, labour force participation, and revisions to prior months.
The December 2026 release covers November 2026 employment data, arriving just five days before the FOMC’s year-end meeting.
US Employment Situation Release: December 4, 2026
The December 4 release will provide the final major labour market snapshot of 2026, covering November employment. This report takes on exceptional significance because it falls just five days before the FOMC’s December 9 meeting, leaving almost no time for the data to be fully absorbed before the rate decision. The most recent reading showed +172,000 jobs in May 2026, above the forecast of 85,000, with unemployment at 4.3%.
By December, the US labour market will have had a full year of 2026 data accumulated. Whether the recovery from 2025’s extreme weakness (averaging just 15,000 jobs per month) has been sustained through the year, or whether the cumulative impact of elevated interest rates has begun to crimp hiring, will be fully visible by November’s data. Consensus forecasts will be available closer to the release.
Why This Employment Report Matters
The December 4 release is perhaps the highest-impact NFP of the entire year precisely because of its timing. With the FOMC convening five days later, a significant surprise in either direction will trigger an immediate repricing of December rate expectations. The BLS will not release another major labour market report before the December 9 FOMC decision.
The November payrolls figure will form part of a final pre-meeting data package alongside the December 10 CPI (though this comes the day after the FOMC) and the November PCE data due November 25. If the November NFP shows the labour market has significantly cooled, the case for a December rate cut becomes much stronger. Conversely, a robust payrolls print could push the Fed to hold, deferring any easing to 2027.
For year-end financial markets, the December 4 NFP is also significant in the context of portfolio rebalancing. Institutional investors making final positioning decisions for 2026 will watch the report closely, and any significant surprise could trigger larger-than-usual moves as investors adjust their 2027 outlooks.
What to Watch For

Above consensus: A strong reading above expectations would significantly reduce the probability of a December rate cut and could push the first 2027 cut to March or later. Treasury yields would rise, the US dollar would strengthen, and equities could face selling pressure as rate-cut expectations are pushed back into the new year.
In line with consensus: A reading matching expectations would keep the December FOMC decision dependent on the full data picture, including November PCE data released on November 25. The FOMC statement and press conference language would carry more weight than the NFP data in this scenario.
Below consensus: A weak reading, particularly if accompanied by a rising unemployment rate, would strongly increase the probability of a December cut and potentially put a 50 basis point reduction on the table. Bonds and equities would rally in anticipation of easing; the US dollar would weaken. This outcome would represent a significant turn in the labour market narrative.

Given the report’s proximity to the FOMC meeting, even a modest surprise in either direction could generate outsized market moves. Liquidity also begins to thin in early December as the holiday trading period approaches, which may amplify reactions.
Historical Context

Month
Jobs Added
Unemployment Rate

May 2026
+172,000
4.3%

April 2026 (revised)
+179,000
4.3%

March 2026 (revised)
+185,000
4.3%

January 2026
+130,000
4.4%

May 2025
+139,000
—

January 2025
+143,000
—

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Revised figures as of the June 2026 release. 2025 data reflects a period of significantly subdued job growth averaging approximately 15,000 per month.
Market Positioning
The December 4 NFP arrives as investors are setting year-end positions and looking ahead to 2027 strategy. The combination of the December 4 employment report, the December 9 FOMC meeting, and the December 10 CPI will constitute one of the most data-dense weeks of the year. Markets will be sensitive to all three releases in rapid succession, with the cumulative effect shaping the risk environment into the new year.
Year-end positioning considerations amplify volatility around this release. Portfolio managers closing the year may use a strong or weak NFP to catalyse final adjustments, meaning the market reaction could be disproportionate to the actual data versus expectations gap.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of 2026 on December 9, just five days after this release, making this one of the most consequential NFP reports of the year.
US CPI Report December 2026 – The November 2026 inflation reading on December 10, completing the macro data picture alongside this employment report.
RBA Rate Decision December 2026 – The Reserve Bank of Australia’s December meeting on December 8, the day before the FOMC, providing a global central bank context for year-end monetary policy.

Frequently Asked Questions
What does the December NFP cover?
The December 2026 Employment Situation report covers labour market activity during November 2026, including the number of jobs added or lost, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and labour force participation. The report covers both the establishment survey (payrolls) and the household survey (unemployment).
When is the December 2026 NFP released?
The December 2026 Employment Situation report will be released on Friday, December 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report covers labour market activity during November 2026.
Why is the December NFP particularly market-sensitive?
The December 4 release comes just five days before the FOMC rate decision on December 9, making it the final major labour market reading before the Fed’s last 2026 policy decision. Combined with year-end positioning by institutional investors and thinning holiday liquidity, any significant payrolls surprise is likely to generate an amplified market reaction across bonds, equities, and the US dollar.
Featured image: Photo by Zoshua Colah on Unsplash.

Canada Labour Force Survey December 2026
2026-12-04 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next Canada Labour Force Survey: Friday, December 4, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
6.7% unemployment (February 2026, latest verified reading)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Canada Labour Force Survey.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Canada Labour Force Survey
Statistics Canada publishes the Labour Force Survey for December 2026 on Friday, December 4, 2026, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The release covers the reference week for November 2026 and reports the national unemployment rate, employment change, wages and hours worked. Full schedule and background: Canada Labour Force Survey.
What is the Labour Force Survey?
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is Statistics Canada’s monthly household survey of roughly 56,000 households. It is the official source of Canada’s unemployment rate, employment level and participation rate, and it is the Canadian equivalent of the US non-farm payrolls report. Interviewers ask a rotating sample of Canadians about their work status during a specific reference week, then Statistics Canada seasonally adjusts the results and publishes them as “The Daily”.
The headline figures are the unemployment rate (the share of the labour force that is out of work and actively looking), the net change in employment (jobs added or lost since the previous month) and the participation rate (the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work). Analysts also watch full-time versus part-time job creation and average hourly wage growth, because these details show whether new jobs are secure and well paid.
The Bank of Canada uses the LFS, alongside inflation data, to judge how much slack remains in the economy when it sets its overnight interest rate. A weakening labour market with rising unemployment tends to support the case for cutting rates, while resilient job growth can keep the central bank cautious about easing further.
When is the December Labour Force Survey released?
Statistics Canada releases the report at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time) on Friday, December 4, 2026, through its “The Daily” bulletin on the StatCan website. The LFS is normally published on the first Friday of each month and covers data collected in the reference week of the previous month, so the December release reports on labour market conditions in November 2026.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of publication, a consensus forecast for the December 2026 release (covering November 2026) has not yet been published. Economists’ median estimates for unemployment rate and job change are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg in the days immediately before the release, once StatCan payroll and vacancy data for the reference month are available. Check back closer to December 4, 2026 for the latest survey of forecasters.
The most recent confirmed reading available is the February 2026 report, which showed the unemployment rate at 6.7%, up from 6.5% in January 2026, according to Trading Economics. The table below tracks the unemployment rate over the six most recent verified prints.

Measure
Prior print
Consensus

Unemployment rate
6.7% (February 2026)
Not yet published

Net employment change
-84,000 (February 2026)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus (stronger jobs, lower unemployment)
Markets could trim expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut, and the Canadian dollar could firm against the US dollar and the euro
More people are working and earning, which tends to support consumer spending, though it can also mean borrowing costs stay higher for longer

In line with consensus
A muted reaction is likely, with the Bank of Canada’s rate path left broadly unchanged
The labour market is behaving roughly as expected, so mortgage and savings rates are unlikely to move much on this data alone

Below consensus (weaker jobs, higher unemployment)
Markets could increase bets on a Bank of Canada rate cut, and the Canadian dollar could soften
Fewer jobs or rising unemployment can point to a slowing economy, which sometimes leads to lower borrowing costs down the line but also signals more households facing job insecurity

These are possible market reactions cited for illustration, not predictions. Actual moves depend on the scale of any surprise and on other data released around the same time, including US employment figures and Canadian inflation readings.
Why does this release matter right now?
Canada’s unemployment rate spent much of 2025 climbing from just over 6% to a four-year high of 7.1% in September 2025, before easing to 6.9% in October and 6.5% in November as employment rose for two consecutive months, according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey release for November 2025. The rate then ticked back up to 6.8% in December 2025 as more people searched for work, per Statistics Canada’s December 2025 Daily bulletin, before falling to a 16-month low of 6.5% in January 2026 and rising again to 6.7% in February 2026 as employment fell by roughly 84,000, according to Trading Economics.
Statistics Canada has noted that 2025’s labour market faced headwinds “in part due to the economic uncertainty introduced by the threat or imposition of tariffs on exports to the United States”. The Bank of Canada is watching whether that trade-related drag continues to show up in construction, manufacturing and export-linked sectors, or whether hiring in health care, retail and services keeps offsetting it. Each LFS print through 2026 will help the central bank judge whether the labour market is cooling gradually or losing momentum more sharply, which feeds directly into its interest rate decisions.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: A weaker jobs report tends to raise the odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut, which can eventually lower variable mortgage rates and lines of credit for Canadian borrowers. A stronger report can do the opposite, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.
Savings: Interest paid on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates tends to move in the same direction as the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, so a softer labour market that points to future rate cuts can mean lower returns on cash savings over time.
Jobs and wages: The headline employment change and wage growth figures give the clearest read on whether it is getting easier or harder to find work, and whether pay rises are keeping pace with the cost of living.
Investments and pensions: Canadian equities and bonds can react to surprises in either direction, since a cooling labour market often supports bond prices (lower yields) while a resilient one can support bank and consumer-facing stocks.
Currencies: A weaker-than-expected report can pressure the Canadian dollar lower against the US dollar, the pound and the euro, which affects the cost of imports, cross-border travel and returns for UK and European investors holding Canadian assets.

Related events

Previous release: Canada Labour Force Survey, November 2026
Full series background and schedule: Canada Labour Force Survey hub page
US non-farm payrolls, typically released the same week, offers a comparable read on the North American labour market

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Canada Labour Force Survey released?
Statistics Canada releases the report at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, on Friday, December 4, 2026.
How do I read the unemployment rate figure?
The unemployment rate is the share of the labour force without a job who are actively looking for one. A rising rate generally signals a cooling job market, while a falling rate signals a tightening one.
How does this report affect Bank of Canada interest rate decisions?
The Bank of Canada weighs labour market slack alongside inflation when setting its overnight rate. Persistent job losses or a rising unemployment rate can support the case for interest rate cuts, while strong, sustained hiring can argue for holding rates steady.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published on Statistics Canada’s website under “The Daily” and in table 14-10-0287-01 of its data tables.
When is the next Labour Force Survey released?
Statistics Canada typically releases the LFS on the first Friday of each month, so the following report covering December 2026 data is expected in early January 2027.
← Previous Canada Labour Force Survey

Japan GDP December 2026
2026-12-07 18:50 - 19:50 (America/New_York)
Next Japan GDP: Tuesday, December 8, 2026 at 8:50 am JST (6:50 pm ET, 11:50 pm London). Covers Q3 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Q2 2026: +1.1% annualized (second preliminary, revised down from Q1's +1.8%)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Japan GDP.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Japan GDP
Japan’s second preliminary (revised) gross domestic product report for the July to September 2026 quarter is due on Tuesday, December 8, 2026, at 8:50 am Japan Standard Time, which is 6:50 pm ET on Monday, December 7 and 11:50 pm in London the same evening. The figures are published by Japan’s Cabinet Office through its Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). Full schedule and background: Japan GDP.
What is Japan’s GDP report?
Gross domestic product measures the total value of goods and services produced in an economy over a set period. Japan’s Cabinet Office publishes GDP for each quarter twice: a “first preliminary” estimate roughly six weeks after the quarter ends, followed by this “second preliminary” release around six weeks later, once more complete data on capital spending and inventories become available.
The headline figures are usually quoted three ways: the quarter-on-quarter change, an annualized rate (what the quarterly change would look like if repeated for four quarters), and the year-on-year change. Analysts also watch the underlying components, private consumption, business investment, government spending and net trade (exports minus imports), because these show where growth or weakness is coming from.
Markets watch Japanese GDP closely because it feeds directly into the Bank of Japan’s policy decisions on interest rates and its assessment of whether wage and price growth is durable enough to justify further tightening.
When is the December GDP report released?
The Cabinet Office is scheduled to release the second preliminary estimate for the July to September 2026 quarter on December 8, 2026 at 8:50 am local time, published on the ESRI Quarterly Estimates of GDP page. This revised release covers the same July to September quarter as the first preliminary estimate published in mid-November 2026, but incorporates updated corporate and public investment data that were not available for the earlier reading.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the December 8, 2026 release has not yet been published, as economist surveys for Japanese GDP revisions are typically compiled only in the days immediately before the release. Once the first preliminary estimate for Q3 2026 is published in mid-November 2026, that figure becomes the effective “prior” for this revision, and analysts build their forecasts around expected changes to capital expenditure and inventory data.
For context, Japan’s most recently confirmed reading at the time of writing is the second preliminary estimate for Q2 2026 (April to June), which showed annualized growth of 1.1%, easing from an upwardly revised 1.8% (originally 2.1%) in Q1 2026, according to Trading Economics.

Measure
Prior (Q1 2026, revised)
Q2 2026 (revised)

GDP, annualized q/q
+1.8%
+1.1%

GDP, quarter-on-quarter
+0.5%
+0.3%

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Revised upward from the first preliminary
Yen could firm modestly and Japanese government bond yields may edge higher, as stronger growth supports the case for further Bank of Japan rate normalisation
The economy grew more than first thought, usually because business investment or exports were revised up

In line with the first preliminary estimate
Limited market reaction, since the figure confirms the picture already priced in after the mid-November release
The initial reading holds up once fuller data are added

Revised downward, or a contraction confirmed
Yen could soften and expectations for near-term Bank of Japan tightening may be pushed back, according to commentary from economists tracked by TradingView on prior GDP revisions
The economy grew less than first estimated, often reflecting weaker capital spending or public investment than initially recorded

These are possibilities drawn from how markets have reacted to past Japanese GDP revisions, not predictions of what will happen on December 8, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of Japan has been gradually moving away from decades of near-zero interest rates, and GDP data feed directly into its judgement on how much slack remains in the economy. Growth slowed from an annualized 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026 to 1.1% in the second, with Trading Economics noting that private consumption made no contribution to growth in Q2 amid rising living costs, while capital spending weakened further.
Exports have also been under pressure from US tariff policy through 2026, a theme that analysts expect to continue weighing on the July to September quarter. Any downward revision to business investment or public spending in this release would reinforce concerns that momentum is fading heading into 2027, which matters for how quickly, or slowly, the Bank of Japan can continue raising rates.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and borrowing in Japan: weaker GDP revisions could slow the pace of Bank of Japan rate rises, keeping Japanese mortgage and loan rates lower for longer; stronger data could do the opposite.
Savings: higher Japanese interest rates, if growth data support them, would gradually improve returns on yen deposits after years of near-zero rates.
Jobs and wages: sustained GDP growth supports the wage negotiations that feed into Japan’s annual “shunto” spring wage round, which the Bank of Japan watches closely.
Currencies: a stronger than expected reading tends to support the yen against the dollar and euro, which affects the cost of Japanese imports and the returns UK and European investors get on yen-denominated assets.
Investments and pensions: Japanese equities and government bonds, widely held in global pension funds, can move on GDP surprises, and yen strength or weakness affects the sterling or dollar value of unhedged Japanese holdings.

Related events

Previous release: Japan GDP, November 2026, the first preliminary estimate for the same July to September 2026 quarter.
Bank of Japan policy decisions, which draw directly on GDP and wage data when setting interest rates.
Japan’s monthly trade balance and industrial production releases, which feed into the net trade and output components of GDP.

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is Japan’s December GDP report released?
It is released at 8:50 am Japan Standard Time on December 8, 2026, which is 6:50 pm ET on December 7 and 11:50 pm in London.
Why does Japan publish GDP twice for the same quarter?
The first preliminary estimate uses incomplete data to give a quick read, while the second preliminary estimate, due on December 8, 2026, incorporates fuller corporate and public investment figures that arrive later.
How does this GDP data affect Bank of Japan interest rate decisions?
The Bank of Japan uses GDP growth and its components, particularly consumption and investment, to judge how much room the economy has to absorb higher interest rates without weakening demand.
Where can I find the official Japanese GDP release?
The Cabinet Office publishes the data through its Economic and Social Research Institute at esri.cao.go.jp.
When is the next Japan GDP release after this one?
The next release is the first preliminary estimate for the October to December 2026 quarter, expected in mid-February 2027, though the exact date is confirmed closer to the time on the ESRI schedule.
← Previous Japan GDP

RBA Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-08 00:00 - 23:59 UTC
Next RBA Rate Decision: Tuesday, December 8, 2026 at 2:30 pm AEST (10:30 pm ET, 3:30 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous RBA Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its final interest rate decision of 2026 on Tuesday, 8 December 2026, at 2:30 pm AEST. The Monetary Policy Board meets over two days (7-8 December), with the outcome published on the second day, followed by a Governor’s press conference at 3:30 pm. As of May 2026, the cash rate target stands at 4.35% following three consecutive hikes in 2026 that reversed all the cuts made in 2025.
RBA Rate Decision: December 8, 2026
December’s meeting is the eighth and final Monetary Policy Board decision of 2026. It comes without a quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (the November meeting carries the SMP), making it a shorter, more focused decision. By December, the Board will have a comprehensive picture of how Australian economic conditions have evolved across the full year: whether the three hikes of early 2026 have succeeded in bringing inflation back toward the 2-3% target band, and whether further tightening is required or whether the cycle has peaked.
The current cash rate of 4.35% matches the peak reached in late 2023, before the RBA began cutting in February 2025. The three hikes of 2026 (February, March, and May) were driven by a re-acceleration of underlying inflation, a persistently tight labour market, and rising energy and food prices linked to the Middle East conflict. All three cuts of 2025 have now been fully reversed. Markets have been pricing approximately one additional 25 basis point hike to 4.60% by year-end, though the timing has remained uncertain.
The December decision will be announced at 2:30 pm AEST on Tuesday, 8 December 2026, followed by a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST.
What to Expect
By December 2026, the RBA will have assessed several months of additional inflation data. The key question is whether underlying inflation has moderated sufficiently to justify a pause, or whether it remains stubbornly elevated, warranting a further hike to 4.60%. The RBA’s trimmed mean inflation measure, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) with each quarterly CPI release, is the Board’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures, stripping out volatile items such as fuel and fresh produce.
The Australian labour market has remained remarkably resilient through 2026’s hiking cycle. Unemployment has stayed near multi-decade lows, and wage growth has remained above levels consistent with the 2-3% inflation target over a sustained period. A persistent mismatch between labour demand and supply contributes to services inflation, which the RBA has flagged as a structural concern.
Global factors will also weigh on the December decision. Conditions in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, are critical to commodity export revenues and domestic economic confidence. The trajectory of US Federal Reserve policy and global financial conditions will influence the Australian dollar and imported inflation. By December, the Board will have the benefit of several additional data points on global growth, trade, and commodity prices.
If inflation data between August and November 2026 shows a sustained return toward the target band, the Board may signal that the hiking cycle has peaked and that the next move could eventually be a cut. If inflation proves more persistent, a hike in December to 4.60% remains possible. The RBA’s communication leading into the December meeting, including any public speeches by the Governor or Deputy Governor, will be closely monitored for signals.
Cash Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Rate
Vote

May 2026
Hike +25bp
4.35%
8-1

March 2026
Hike +25bp
4.10%
Majority

February 2026
Hike +25bp
3.85%
Majority

November 2025
Hold
3.60%
Majority

September 2025
Hold
3.60%
Majority

August 2025
Cut 25bp
3.60%
Majority

May 2025
Cut 25bp
3.85%
Majority

February 2025
Cut 25bp
4.10%
Majority

Market Impact Scenarios

Hold at 4.35% (base case) – If underlying inflation is tracking back toward the 2-3% band, a hold is the most likely outcome. The Australian dollar (AUD) would hold steady against major currencies. Australian government bond yields would see limited movement. The ASX 200 would likely react positively to confirmation that the hiking cycle has peaked, with rate-sensitive sectors including property and financials outperforming. The Board’s statement would focus on when, not whether, the next move might be a cut.
Hike 25bp to 4.60% – A hike in December would signal that the Board views inflation as not yet sufficiently tamed. The AUD would strengthen against the US dollar and euro. Bond yields would rise. The ASX 200 would likely fall, with mortgage-sensitive sectors including banks and residential property under pressure. Australian households carry high levels of variable-rate debt, making further hikes particularly sensitive for consumer confidence.
Cut 25bp to 4.10% – A cut at the December meeting would be a significant surprise and would require a sharp moderation in both headline and underlying inflation to well within the target band. The AUD would weaken sharply. Bond prices would rally. Such a move is unlikely given the recent hiking cycle but cannot be entirely excluded if growth slows sharply through the second half of 2026.

Statement and Press Conference
Following the 2:30 pm AEST announcement, RBA Governor Michele Bullock will hold a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST to explain the Board’s decision and answer media questions. The post-decision statement will be scrutinised for any change in language about the Board’s assessment of inflation risks and the future path of the cash rate. As a non-SMP meeting, the statement will be shorter than the quarterly reports but still provides the primary communication channel for the Board’s current thinking.
The minutes of the December meeting will be published two weeks after the decision. They provide a more detailed account of the Board’s deliberations and are used by economists and market participants to assess the distribution of views within the Board. Any shift toward a more dovish tone in the minutes, or a reduction in the number of members favouring further hikes, would be taken as a signal that the tightening cycle has run its course.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The US Federal Reserve’s December decision, which will influence global monetary conditions and the AUD/USD rate ahead of the RBA’s announcement.
ECB Rate Decision December 2026 – The European Central Bank’s December decision, providing broader context for global monetary policy heading into year-end 2026.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision December 2026 – The BoE’s December decision on 17 December, another major central bank decision in the same month.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is the RBA’s inflation target and how does the cash rate affect it?
The Reserve Bank of Australia targets CPI inflation of 2-3% on average over the medium term. The cash rate target is the primary monetary policy tool: raising rates increases borrowing costs, dampening spending and investment, which in turn reduces inflationary pressure. Cutting rates does the opposite. The trimmed mean CPI, which strips out the most volatile price movements, is the Board’s preferred underlying inflation gauge.
When will the December 2026 RBA decision be announced?
The decision will be published at 2:30 pm AEST (3:30 am GMT) on Tuesday, 8 December 2026, following a two-day Monetary Policy Board meeting on 7-8 December. The Governor’s press conference follows at 3:30 pm AEST.
How does the RBA cash rate affect Australian mortgages?
The RBA cash rate directly influences variable-rate mortgage rates offered by Australian banks. Australia has a high proportion of variable-rate and short-fixed-term mortgages relative to other developed economies, meaning rate changes flow through quickly to household budgets. A 25 basis point increase in the cash rate typically adds approximately A$75-100 per month to repayments on a A$500,000 variable mortgage. Rate-sensitive property markets, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, watch RBA decisions closely.
Featured image: Photo by Fabian Mardi on Unsplash.

US International Trade Balance December 2026
2026-12-08 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US International Trade Balance: Tuesday, December 8, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US International Trade Balance
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Census Bureau will jointly release the US International Trade in Goods and Services report for October 2026 on Tuesday, December 8, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The release covers US exports and imports of goods and services during October, providing the final major monthly trade reading of the year before the December Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Consensus forecasts for October 2026 trade are not yet available at the time of writing. The release date was confirmed via the Census Bureau’s FT-900 press release schedule.
What Is the US International Trade Balance Report?
The US International Trade in Goods and Services (FT-900) is a joint monthly release from the BEA and the Census Bureau. It measures the value of all US cross-border trade in goods (physical merchandise) and services (financial services, travel, intellectual property, and other cross-border transactions). The headline figure is the net deficit or surplus: the United States has run a persistent goods deficit for decades, partially offset by a structural services surplus in areas such as finance, software, and travel exports.
The trade balance feeds directly into the national accounts. Wider deficits subtract from GDP, while narrower deficits add to growth. Monthly trade data is also incorporated into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance GDP estimates, meaning that this December 8 release covering October will provide important context for analysts modelling Q4 2026 GDP. The report is released approximately five to six weeks after the reference month ends and is subject to later revision.
Trade Balance Report: December 8, 2026
The December 8 release covers October 2026 trade flows and arrives the day before the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 FOMC meeting begins. The FOMC will use October trade data alongside CPI, PPI, retail sales, employment, and housing figures in its final assessment of 2026 economic conditions before setting the policy rate for the period ahead. This makes the December 8 release timing particularly notable: it is one of the last major economic data points the Fed will receive before its year-end meeting.
October 2026 will be an important reference month for trade, as it represents the start of the holiday import surge that typically occurs as US retailers stock up on consumer goods for the November-December shopping season. Historical patterns show that October imports often rise sharply versus September, widening the goods deficit before partially retracing in January. Markets will assess whether October 2026 follows this seasonal pattern or whether tariff-adjusted supply chains have altered the typical rhythm of import flows.
The most recently available data (April 2026, published June 9) showed a deficit of $60.3 billion. The trend in early 2026 stabilised in the $55-60 billion range after the December 2025 spike to $70.3 billion attributable to pre-tariff import front-loading. By December 8, additional monthly trade readings for May through September will have been published, providing a fuller picture of the 2026 trend.
Why This Report Matters
The December 8 trade balance release is particularly significant for several reasons. First, it provides the October trade data that feeds into Q4 2026 GDP calculations, complementing consumer spending, business investment, and government expenditure data that will also be released during Q4. Second, it arrives the day before the FOMC begins its December meeting, making it a timely input to the Fed’s final 2026 policy deliberations. Third, as the last monthly trade balance release of the year, it provides analysts with an opportunity to assess the full-year 2026 trade deficit trajectory.
For currency markets, a widening October deficit driven by the typical pre-holiday import surge could exert modest pressure on the US dollar, while a narrowing deficit would be constructive. Energy trade flows — US crude oil, LNG, and refined products exports — remain a critical variable, as shifts in energy trade can significantly alter the goods deficit independently of manufactured goods trends. The RBA Rate Decision December 8, 2026 falls on the same day, making it a busy session for global macro markets.
What to Watch For

Above consensus (wider deficit) — A wider-than-expected October deficit would reflect strong import demand ahead of the holiday season, signalling robust domestic spending but subtracting from GDP arithmetic. A particular widening in consumer goods imports would be a direct read on holiday retail sentiment.
In line with consensus — A result matching expectations would have limited standalone market impact. Markets would look to the services surplus, the energy trade component, and prior-month revisions for directional signals.
Below consensus (narrower deficit) — A narrower deficit would be constructive for GDP estimates and would provide a positive surprise for the dollar and bond yields. A narrowing driven by export growth would be particularly bullish for internationally exposed US sectors.

Historical Context

Release Date
Reference Month
Deficit (Goods & Services)
Note

June 9, 2026
April 2026
-$60.3B
Wider than estimate

May 5, 2026
March 2026
-$60.3B
In line with estimate

April 2, 2026
February 2026
-$57.3B
Narrower than estimate

March 2026
January 2026
-$54.5B
—

February 2026
December 2025
-$70.3B
Pre-tariff surge; largest in 2025-26

January 2026
November 2025
-$53.0B
—

Market Positioning
The December 8 trade balance release sits at the intersection of three major market themes: the end-of-year holiday import cycle, the FOMC’s December rate decision, and year-end portfolio positioning. The trade data will feed into GDP nowcast models for Q4 2026 and influence how analysts and strategists frame their year-end economic assessments. Combined with the October CPI and PPI data (released earlier in November), the December 8 trade print will give markets a comprehensive view of October economic conditions just one day before the Federal Reserve convenes for its final 2026 meeting.
As context, the full-year 2025 trade deficit was approximately $900 billion on an annual basis. The trajectory of the 2026 monthly readings will determine whether the annual deficit has widened further or has begun to narrow as tariff-driven import patterns normalise and US export competitiveness adjusts to the new trade policy environment. The US CPI Report December 2026, released December 10, will complement this trade data with the latest inflation reading as markets head into year-end.
Related Events This Week

FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 — The Fed’s December 9-10 meeting begins the day after this trade release, making December 8 trade data one of the final inputs before the year-end monetary policy decision.
RBA Rate Decision December 2026 — The Reserve Bank of Australia also announces on December 8, making it a busy global central bank and economic data day.
US CPI Report December 2026 — Released December 10, just two days after the trade balance, completing the major inflation picture for the October reference month period.

Frequently Asked Questions
What does the US International Trade Balance report measure?
The report measures the difference in value between all US exports and imports of goods and services during the reference month. A negative figure is a trade deficit; a positive figure is a surplus. The US has run a persistent goods deficit for decades, partially offset by a services surplus. The report is published jointly by the BEA and the Census Bureau under the designation FT-900.
When is the December 2026 trade balance report released?
The October 2026 trade data will be published on Tuesday, December 8, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This date was confirmed via the Census Bureau’s foreign trade press release schedule.
Why does trade balance data matter for the Federal Reserve?
The trade balance influences GDP directly via the net exports component. If the deficit widens more than expected, it subtracts from GDP growth and can prompt downward revisions to economic output estimates. Trade data also provides information about domestic demand (via import volumes), export competitiveness, and the relative strength of the US economy versus its trading partners. All of these factors inform the FOMC’s dual mandate assessment of growth and inflation when setting monetary policy.

RBNZ Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-08 20:00 - 21:00 (America/New_York)
Next RBNZ Rate Decision: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 pm NZDT (8:00 pm ET, 1:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Hiked to 2.50% (July 8, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: RBNZ Rate Decision.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous RBNZ Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, at 2:00 pm NZDT, which is 8:00 pm ET on Tuesday, December 8, and 1:00 am London time on December 9. The RBNZ sets New Zealand’s benchmark interest rate, which most recently stood at 2.50% following a hike at the July 2026 meeting. Full schedule and background: RBNZ Rate Decision hub page.
What is the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee and what does it decide?
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the body inside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responsible for setting the Official Cash Rate, the interest rate that influences borrowing costs across the New Zealand economy. It is a six-person panel that includes the Governor and internal and external members, and it operates under a remit from the government to keep annual inflation between 1% and 3%, with a focus on the 2% midpoint, while supporting maximum sustainable employment.
Unlike some central banks that publish individual votes as a matter of course, the RBNZ’s committee generally seeks to reach decisions by consensus, though splits do occur and are recorded in the meeting minutes. The committee meets seven times a year, roughly every six to seven weeks, and each decision is accompanied by a written statement explaining the reasoning.
Four times a year the OCR announcement is paired with a Monetary Policy Statement, a longer document setting out the RBNZ’s economic forecasts, including its projected path for the OCR itself, commonly referred to by traders as the interest rate track.
When is the December RBNZ decision announced?
The decision is released at 2:00 pm New Zealand time on December 9, 2026, alongside a statement from the Monetary Policy Committee. If this meeting coincides with a quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, the RBNZ also publishes updated economic projections and the Governor typically holds a press conference shortly after the announcement to take questions from journalists. Minutes or a record of the meeting, when published, generally follow within the RBNZ’s usual disclosure timetable rather than weeks later, in line with the Reserve Bank’s own published schedule of OCR decision dates.
What to expect
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the December 2026 decision has not yet been published. Traders typically look to overnight index swap pricing and to bank economists in New Zealand and Australia for a read on the likely outcome closer to the meeting date, and that pricing can shift quickly if New Zealand inflation or employment data surprise in either direction before December 9.
The most recent confirmed move came at the July 8, 2026 meeting, when the RBNZ raised the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its first hike in more than three years, a decision described by FocusEconomics as “in line with market expectations”. That followed a prolonged hold that had been in place since November 2025, and a closely split May 2026 meeting in which the committee divided three-three before the Governor’s tie-breaking vote favoured a hold.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

November 2025
Held
2.25%

May 2026
Held (3-3 split, Governor’s casting vote)
2.25%

July 8, 2026
Hiked 25bp
2.50%

Rows for meetings between these dates and for the October 2026 decision are omitted here because they could not be independently verified against the RBNZ’s own releases at the time of writing. Readers should check the Reserve Bank’s official OCR page for the confirmed rate ahead of the December announcement.
Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold
Seen as a pause to assess incoming inflation and jobs data
Borrowing costs in New Zealand stay where they are for now, and the New Zealand dollar’s reaction depends on the tone of the statement rather than the decision itself

Hike
Read as the RBNZ leaning further against above-target inflation risks
Mortgage and business borrowing costs in New Zealand would likely rise further, and the currency could strengthen if the move is seen as decisive

Guidance shift
Markets focus on the tone of the statement and any updated rate track rather than the OCR level itself
Even with no change to the OCR, hints about future moves can shift mortgage pricing and the currency within hours

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Analysts watching the December statement will focus on how the committee characterises the inflation outlook after the July hike, whether members flag further tightening or judge that one move is sufficient, and whether any dissent is recorded within the committee’s consensus-based process. The RBNZ’s language on the labour market, house prices and the exchange rate tends to move alongside the headline decision, and any hint of a further move at the following meeting can matter as much to markets as the rate itself.
Because the Bank had held rates for an extended period before the July hike, commentators will also be alert to whether the committee describes this as the start of a new tightening phase or as a single, data-driven adjustment.
What It Means for Your Money
For people with a mortgage in New Zealand, a further OCR increase typically feeds through to floating and shorter fixed mortgage rates within weeks, raising monthly repayments, while a hold or a dovish tone can ease pressure on those due to refix. Savers with term deposits and online savings accounts tend to see slightly better rates when the OCR rises, though banks do not always pass through the full amount immediately.
The decision also moves the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, the pound and the euro. A hike that surprises markets tends to support the currency, making imports cheaper for New Zealanders but making New Zealand exports, including dairy and tourism, relatively more expensive for overseas buyers. For UK and eurozone investors with exposure to New Zealand assets or the New Zealand dollar, this decision is a smaller but still watched input into global rate expectations, particularly as it comes late in a year when several major central banks have been navigating their own inflation paths. Pension funds and diversified investment portfolios with exposure to Australasian bonds or equities can see modest price moves around the announcement, and New Zealand share prices, especially in interest-sensitive sectors like property and retail, often react within the same trading session.
Related events

Previous decision: RBNZ Rate Decision October 2026
New Zealand inflation and employment data released ahead of this meeting will shape the committee’s assessment of whether inflation is returning to the 1% to 3% target band
Full RBNZ decision history and upcoming dates: RBNZ Rate Decision hub

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 2026 RBNZ decision announced?
The decision is released at 2:00 pm New Zealand time on December 9, 2026, which is 8:00 pm ET on December 8 and 1:00 am London time on December 9.
What is New Zealand’s current Official Cash Rate?
The OCR stood at 2.50% after the RBNZ’s hike at its July 8, 2026 meeting, the most recent confirmed decision available at the time of writing.
Will the RBNZ cut or hike rates in December 2026?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published. The outcome will depend on New Zealand inflation and labour market data released in the weeks before the meeting.
When is the next RBNZ decision after December 2026?
Check the RBNZ Rate Decision hub for the confirmed date of the following meeting once the Reserve Bank publishes its updated schedule.
Where can I watch the RBNZ announcement live?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand publishes its statement and, where applicable, streams the Governor’s press conference on its official website at the time of the decision.
← Previous RBNZ Rate Decision

China CPI December 2026
2026-12-08 20:30 - 21:30 (America/New_York)
Next China CPI: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (8:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
" " }

Prior
0.5% YoY (July 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: China CPI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous China CPI
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2026 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, at 9:30 am China Standard Time, which is 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday, December 8 in the United States and 1:30 am on December 9 in London. The figures are published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and cover price changes recorded across November 2026. Full schedule and background: China CPI.
What is the China CPI?
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban and rural households for a fixed basket of goods and services, including food, housing, transport, healthcare and education. The NBS calculates the index by tracking prices in dozens of cities across China’s provinces and weighting each category according to its share of typical household spending.
Economists and traders watch China’s CPI because it is the clearest monthly signal of domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy. A low or negative reading suggests households and businesses are spending cautiously, which can point to deflationary pressure. A rising reading suggests demand is picking up, which can influence decisions by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on interest rates and liquidity support.
The headline year-on-year figure gets the most attention, but analysts also track the month-on-month change and core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices to show the underlying trend in the economy.
When is the November 2026 CPI released?
The NBS is expected to publish the November 2026 CPI report on December 9, 2026, at 9:30 am local time in Beijing. The release is posted on the National Bureau of Statistics website alongside the accompanying Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, which are released simultaneously. Because the NBS follows a fixed monthly release calendar for CPI and PPI, this date has not shifted from prior months.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 reading has not yet been published by major polling services such as Reuters or Bloomberg. These polls are typically compiled only a few days before the release, so figures are not yet available this far in advance. The most recent confirmed official reading, covering July 2026, showed headline inflation at 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.0% in June 2026, according to Trading Economics data sourced from the NBS. That July print fell short of market forecasts of 0.8%, marking the lowest reading since January 2026.

Measure
Prior (July 2026)
Consensus (November 2026)

Headline CPI (YoY)
0.5%
Not yet published

Core CPI (YoY)
Data not independently confirmed
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could ease deflation worries and reduce pressure on the PBOC to add more stimulus, according to analysts cited by ING in past commentary on China’s inflation trend
Prices are rising faster than expected, suggesting Chinese consumers and businesses are spending a bit more freely

In line
Limited market reaction, seen as confirmation that the current gentle inflation trend is intact
The economy is behaving broadly as expected, with no fresh signal for policymakers

Below consensus
Could revive concerns about deflationary pressure and add to expectations of further PBOC support, a theme CNBC has highlighted in coverage of China’s inflation data
Prices are rising more slowly than hoped, which can signal weak demand at home

These are possible market reactions based on how similar readings have been discussed by analysts in the past, not predictions of what will happen on December 9, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
China has spent much of 2026 wrestling with weak domestic demand, and headline CPI has repeatedly undershot official targets and market forecasts through the middle of the year. The July 2026 reading of 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.0% in June, extended a pattern of soft and uneven inflation, according to Trading Economics. At the same time, producer prices, which measure costs at the factory gate, have remained in deflation for an extended stretch, a trend tracked by Moody’s Analytics.
This combination matters because persistently weak consumer inflation limits the PBOC’s room to manoeuvre and keeps pressure on Beijing to support household spending through fiscal measures, subsidies or targeted stimulus. The OECD has separately noted that headline inflation trends among major non-OECD G20 economies, including China, have moved unevenly through the second half of 2026, according to the OECD’s Consumer Prices update. Investors watching the November print will be looking for signs of whether food prices, a volatile but influential component of China’s CPI basket, are stabilising heading into the winter months.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing costs: China’s CPI does not set UK, US or European mortgage rates directly, but weak Chinese inflation can weigh on global growth expectations, which sometimes feeds through to bond yields and, indirectly, to borrowing costs worldwide.
Savings: If Chinese demand remains soft, cheaper Chinese exports of goods such as electronics, clothing and machinery can help keep imported inflation low in the UK, Europe and the United States, which can support the case for central banks to hold or cut interest rates, affecting the returns savers earn on deposit accounts.
Jobs and wages: Companies with significant exposure to Chinese consumer demand, from luxury goods makers to mining and commodity firms, can see revenue expectations shift after a CPI surprise, which occasionally feeds into hiring and investment decisions at multinational employers.
Investments and pensions: Chinese consumer weakness has historically weighed on commodity prices and emerging market equities, both of which sit inside many diversified pension funds, so a surprise reading can move fund valuations even for investors who have never bought a Chinese stock directly.
Currencies: A weaker-than-expected reading can pressure the Chinese yuan and, at times, other Asian currencies, while also influencing how traders price the US dollar, the euro and the pound against a backdrop of shifting global growth expectations.
Related events

Previous release: China CPI, November 2026 data
China’s Producer Price Index (PPI), released alongside CPI each month by the NBS
Upcoming PBOC policy decisions, which take China’s inflation trend into account

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the China CPI released?
The NBS releases the report at 9:30 am China Standard Time, which is 8:30 pm ET the previous evening and 1:30 am in London on the release day.
How do I read the China CPI figure?
Focus on the year-on-year headline number for the overall inflation trend, then check the month-on-month change and core CPI to see whether the trend is being driven by volatile items like food or by broader demand.
How does China’s CPI affect interest rates?
Weak or negative inflation gives the People’s Bank of China more room to keep monetary policy supportive, while stronger inflation can reduce the urgency for additional stimulus, indirectly shaping global rate and currency expectations.
Where can I find the official release?
The data is published directly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on its website, alongside the PPI report for the same month.
When is the next China CPI release?
The NBS publishes CPI monthly, so the following report, covering December 2026 data, is expected in mid-January 2027 under the bureau’s standard release calendar.
← Previous China CPI

Bank of Canada Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-09 09:45 - 10:45 (America/New_York)
Next Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Held at 2.25% (last confirmed July 15, 2026; unchanged since October 2025)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Bank of Canada Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council announces its December policy interest rate decision on December 9, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time). The rate has been held at 2.25% through every scheduled decision since October 2025, when policymakers last cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of one percentage point). This is the final rate announcement of 2026, and it is not accompanied by a quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which is instead published alongside the January, April, July and October decisions. Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada rate decisions.
What is the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council and what does it decide?
The Governing Council is the Bank of Canada’s senior decision-making body. It sets the target for the overnight rate, the interest rate at which major financial institutions lend to one another overnight, which in turn shapes the Bank’s Rate (currently 2.5%) and the deposit rate (currently 2.20%). Changes in the overnight rate feed through to the prime rates set by Canada’s big banks, which affect variable-rate mortgages, home equity lines of credit and business loans across the country.
The Council is chaired by the Governor, Tiff Macklem, and includes the Senior Deputy Governor and several Deputy Governors. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes; decisions are presented as a collective judgement of the Governing Council reached by consensus rather than a recorded ballot.
The Bank’s mandate, agreed with the Government of Canada, is to keep inflation at the 2% target within a control range of 1% to 3%, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. It normally meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks, to review this mandate against incoming economic data.
When is the December Bank of Canada decision announced?
The decision is released in a written statement at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time) on December 9, 2026. Because this is not one of the four Monetary Policy Report meetings, there is no accompanying set of new growth and inflation projections and no scheduled press conference in the way there is for January, April, July and October decisions; the Bank instead publishes a shorter statement explaining its reasoning. The summary of deliberations, the closest Canadian equivalent to meeting minutes, is normally released roughly two weeks after each decision.
What to expect
According to reporting from Canadian Mortgage Trends, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at every one of its scheduled decisions through July 2026, having last moved rates in October 2025 with a 25 basis point cut. Coverage from Immigration News Canada in late July 2026 noted a “growing consensus among economists that the Bank’s next move will be a hike rather than a cut”, with the overnight rate sitting at the bottom of the Bank’s estimated 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range. The September 2 and October 28, 2026 decisions fall between that reporting and this December meeting; for the most recently confirmed outcome ahead of December, see the October 2026 Bank of Canada decision page. A consensus forecast specific to the December 9, 2026 meeting has not yet been published by major polling desks this far in advance.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

October 2025
Cut, 25bp
2.25%

December 2025
Hold
2.25%

January 2026
Hold
2.25%

March 2026
Hold
2.25%

April 2026
Hold
2.25%

June 2026
Hold
2.25%

July 2026
Hold (with Monetary Policy Report)
2.25%

Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold at 2.25%
Likely read as consistent with the “prolonged hold” path described by analysts cited by nesto.ca; limited immediate reaction in the Canadian dollar or bond yields
Borrowing costs stay where they are; savers and mortgage holders see no immediate change

Hike
Would likely be read as a hawkish shift given commentary from Immigration News Canada pointing to growing hike expectations for 2027; could push the Canadian dollar higher against the US dollar and euro
Loans, mortgages and lines of credit become more expensive, but savings accounts and GICs typically pay more

Cut
Would be a surprise against current economist commentary and would likely weaken the Canadian dollar
Cheaper borrowing for mortgages and business loans, but lower returns on savings

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Because December is not a Monetary Policy Report meeting, the accompanying statement tends to be shorter, but markets will still parse it closely for forward guidance, meaning any hint about the likely direction of future decisions. Analysts will be watching for language on inflation’s path back to the 2% target, references to US trade policy and tariffs given Canada’s reliance on cross-border trade, and any signal about the neutral rate, the level at which policy is neither stimulating nor restricting the economy. With the overnight rate sitting at the low end of the Bank’s own estimated 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range, commentators will be alert to any wording suggesting the next move is more likely to be a hike than a further hold or cut. Because the Bank does not publish a recorded vote, there is no formal “dissent” to track in the way there is at the Fed or the Bank of England, though the summary of deliberations released roughly two weeks later can reveal a range of views within the Governing Council.
What It Means for Your Money
For Canadian mortgage holders, a hold means variable rates and lines of credit tied to bank prime rates stay unchanged; a hike would raise monthly payments on variable-rate and soon-to-renew mortgages, while a cut would lower them. Fixed-rate mortgages react more to bond yields than to the overnight rate itself, but the Bank’s tone can still move those yields. Savers with high-interest savings accounts or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) would likely see slightly better returns after a hike and slightly worse ones after a cut, with banks typically adjusting these rates within days to weeks of a Bank of Canada move.
The decision also matters beyond Canada. A stronger or weaker Canadian dollar affects the cost of Canadian imports for UK and European buyers and the returns UK and eurozone investors get from Canadian assets when converted back into pounds or euros. Because the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are all navigating similar inflation and growth trade-offs, this decision is also watched as a read-across for how other central banks might be thinking, which can move global bond and equity markets, including pension funds and stock market index trackers held by ordinary savers in the UK and Europe.
Related events

Previous decision: Bank of Canada Rate Decision, October 2026
Full schedule: Bank of Canada rate decisions hub
Canada’s inflation and jobs data released in the weeks before this meeting typically shape the Governing Council’s final judgement

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Bank of Canada’s December 2026 decision announced?
The decision is released at 9:45 am ET, which is 2:45 pm in London, on December 9, 2026.
Will the Bank of Canada cut rates in December 2026?
No one can say in advance; the Bank had held its rate at 2.25% throughout 2026 up to July, and some economists cited by Immigration News Canada expected the next move to be a hike rather than a cut, but this is a possibility, not a certainty.
What is the Bank of Canada’s current policy rate?
The target for the overnight rate had been held at 2.25% since October 2025, according to the Bank of Canada’s own press releases, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.
When is the next Bank of Canada rate decision after December 2026?
The Bank’s 2027 schedule, published in July 2026, sets the first 2027 decision for January 27, 2027.
Where can I watch the Bank of Canada announcement?
The Bank of Canada publishes its statements directly on bankofcanada.ca, and major financial news outlets typically carry the release live at 9:45 am ET.
← Previous Bank of Canada Rate Decision

US Existing Home Sales December 2026
2026-12-09 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
A consensus forecast has not yet been published
Prior
Not yet confirmed from the official NAR release at time of writing
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Existing Home Sales.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Existing Home Sales
The US Existing Home Sales report for November 2026 data is released on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The report measures the pace at which previously owned homes changed hands during the month, and it is one of the two main gauges of US housing market activity alongside new home sales. Full schedule and background: US Existing Home Sales.
What is existing home sales?
Existing home sales tracks the number of previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops that closed during the reporting month, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Because the figure counts closings rather than new contracts, it reflects buying decisions made roughly one to two months earlier, when the mortgage rate at the time of the offer was locked in.
The NAR compiles the data from a survey of multiple listing services and brokers around the country. Alongside the headline sales pace, the report includes median sale price, months of supply, the share of cash buyers, and regional breakdowns for the Northeast, Midwest, South and West. Because roughly 90% of all US home sales are existing homes rather than new construction, this release is the primary window into the health of the housing market.
Investors and central bankers watch it because housing is highly sensitive to interest rates and because the sector influences consumer spending through wealth effects, home renovation activity and the pace of household formation. A sustained slowdown in sales can signal that higher mortgage rates are squeezing affordability, while a pickup can suggest buyers are adjusting to a new rate environment.
When is the November existing home sales report released?
The National Association of Realtors publishes the November 2026 existing home sales figures on December 9, 2026 at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London. The release is published on the NAR’s own website and distributed to newswires simultaneously. This date has been confirmed by the NAR’s release calendar and is not an estimate.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast from a major poll such as Reuters or Bloomberg for the November 2026 reading has not yet been published, and the prior month’s confirmed sales pace has not been verified against the NAR’s own release for this article. Readers should check the NAR’s official release or a live consensus tracker such as Investing.com or Trading Economics closer to the release date for the most current prior figure and survey median, since these can shift materially as the release date approaches.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Existing home sales (SAAR)
To be confirmed from the October 2026 NAR release
Not yet published

Median existing home price
To be confirmed from the October 2026 NAR release
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as a sign the housing market is stabilising or improving despite elevated mortgage rates, which some analysts suggest may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly
More people are successfully buying and selling homes than expected, which can support related spending on furniture, renovations and moving services

In line
Likely to have limited market impact since the figure was already priced in by traders
The housing market is behaving broadly as expected, offering no major surprise to buyers, sellers or renters

Below consensus
May be interpreted as evidence that high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the market, which some economists argue strengthens the case for future rate cuts
Fewer homes are changing hands than expected, which can signal that affordability pressures are holding back both buyers and sellers

These are possible interpretations discussed by market commentators, not predictions of how markets will actually move on the day.
Why does this release matter right now?
Housing has remained one of the most interest-rate-sensitive parts of the US economy through 2026, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates staying well above the historic lows seen earlier in the decade. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor housing data closely as part of its broader assessment of financial conditions and the labour market, since construction, real estate services and related retail spending make up a meaningful share of US economic activity. A run of weak existing home sales prints earlier in the year has kept the sector under scrutiny, and any further deterioration or improvement in November’s figures will feed into the debate over the path of interest rates into 2027.
Globally, the release also matters because US mortgage and housing trends often mirror pressures seen in the UK and euro area, where central banks have likewise grappled with the effect of higher rates on property markets. A weaker-than-expected US reading can reinforce expectations that major central banks, including the Bank of England and European Central Bank, may need to stay cautious about how quickly they ease policy.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: A stronger-than-expected sales figure can nudge US Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher if it suggests the economy remains resilient, while a weak print can support the case for lower rates over time, indirectly affecting mortgage pricing in the UK and eurozone through global bond market linkages.
Savings: Changes in the interest rate outlook driven by housing data can influence what savings accounts and fixed-term deposits pay, since banks price savings products off the same rate expectations that move mortgage costs.
Jobs and wages: A healthy housing market supports employment in real estate, construction, home improvement and retail, so a sustained slowdown in sales can eventually show up in slower job growth in these sectors.
Prices: Median home price trends reported alongside the sales figure give a read on housing costs, one of the larger components of household budgets and inflation measures in the US.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Housing-linked stocks such as homebuilders and real estate investment trusts often react directly to the release, and shifts in US rate expectations can move the dollar against the pound and euro, affecting the value of overseas investments and pension holdings with US exposure.

Related events

Previous release: US Existing Home Sales, November 2026 data
US New Home Sales, the companion report covering newly built housing
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which shape mortgage rates and housing demand

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November existing home sales report released?
The National Association of Realtors publishes the data at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London, on December 9, 2026.
How should I read the existing home sales figure?
Look at the seasonally adjusted annual rate against the prior month and against the consensus forecast, and check the accompanying median price and months of supply for a fuller picture of market conditions.
How does this data affect interest rates?
The Federal Reserve considers housing market strength as part of its broader assessment of the economy, so persistently weak or strong readings can feed into expectations for future rate decisions, though housing data alone rarely drives policy on its own.
Where can I find the official release?
The National Association of Realtors publishes the full report, including regional breakdowns and price data, on its own website at the scheduled release time.
When is the next existing home sales report?
The NAR typically publishes existing home sales data around the 20th to 25th of the month for two months prior, though the November data covered here follows an adjusted December publication date; check the NAR calendar for the exact date of the following release.
← Previous US Existing Home Sales
