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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260714T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260714T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104550Z
CREATED:20260712T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104550Z
UID:1266-1784017800-1784021400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US CPI June 2026: Inflation Falls to 3.5%\, Below Forecast
DESCRIPTION:US CPI Report: 3.5% YoY\, -0.4% MoM (SA); core CPI 2.6% YoY. Both below consensus (3.8% / 2.9% expected). (Tuesday\, July 14\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers June 2026 data. \n\nActual\n3.5% YoY\, -0.4% MoM (SA); core CPI 2.6% YoY. Both below consensus (3.8% / 2.9% expected).\n\nFull schedule and background: US CPI Report. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US CPI ReportNext US CPI Report →\nThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June 2026 on Tuesday\, 14 July 2026\, at 8:30 am ET. Headline CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in June\, below the consensus forecast of 3.8%\, as a sharp fall in energy prices pulled the monthly reading to -0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis\, the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Core CPI\, excluding food and energy\, was unchanged on the month at 2.6% year-on-year\, also softer than forecast. The cooling inflation print boosted risk assets and raised market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of 2026. \nResults: US CPI June 2026\nThe BLS reported that the CPI-U fell 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June 2026\, the largest single-month decline since April 2020. Over the 12 months to June\, the all-items index rose 3.5%\, below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.8% and down from the recent peak of 3.8% recorded in April 2026. Core CPI\, excluding food and energy\, was flat on the month\, with the 12-month rate easing to 2.6%\, against a consensus of approximately 2.9%. The energy index fell 5.7% on the month\, the largest contributor to the monthly decline\, reflecting a sharp drop in petrol and fuel prices following the ceasefire between the United States and Iran that eased Middle East supply concerns. The monthly decline in energy more than offset continued increases in shelter and food prices\, which remain above pre-shock levels. \nMarket Reaction\nThe softer-than-expected inflation data prompted a broad rally in rate-sensitive assets. The 2-year Treasury yield\, most sensitive to near-term Federal Reserve policy\, fell more than 7 basis points to 4.185%\, and the 10-year yield declined more than 2 basis points to 4.583%. The S&P 500 gained 0.47% to close near 7\,545 and the Nasdaq rose 1.08%\, with technology and growth stocks benefiting most from the decline in yields. The US dollar index fell 0.6% to 100.7 in the immediate aftermath of the release\, though part of that decline reversed after Federal Reserve Chair Warsh testified later in the session. Market pricing for rate cuts in the second half of 2026 increased following the print. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe June CPI result shifts the picture materially from the scenario outlined in this preview. The Middle East energy shock that drove headline CPI to 3.8% in April appears to be easing faster than expected\, with the energy component reversing sharply following the US-Iran ceasefire. Both headline and core CPI came in below consensus\, increasing the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end. The FOMC meeting on 28-29 July will be closely watched for any shift in language towards earlier easing. For households\, a lower-than-expected inflation path supports real wage growth and purchasing power\, and could eventually translate into lower mortgage rates and cheaper variable-rate debt if the Fed moves to cut. For savers\, a path towards lower rates would over time compress returns on cash and short-term deposits. \nWhat is the US Consumer Price Index?\nThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services\, including food\, energy\, housing\, transportation\, medical care\, and recreation. The BLS publishes the CPI monthly\, covering the prior calendar month’s price data. It is the primary inflation benchmark used by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve when assessing monetary policy\, although the Fed’s official inflation target is expressed in terms of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. \nTwo headline CPI measures are published simultaneously: the “all items” CPI\, which includes food and energy\, and the “core” CPI\, which excludes food and energy. Core CPI is watched closely because it strips out the most volatile price components and provides a cleaner read on underlying demand-driven inflation. Within the CPI basket\, shelter (housing costs) accounts for approximately one-third of the total weighting and has been the most persistent source of above-target inflation in the current cycle. Services inflation\, particularly in labour-intensive sectors\, is the component the Federal Reserve has focused on most intensely when assessing whether inflation will sustainably return to its 2% target. \nUS CPI Report: July 14\, 2026\nThe July 14 release covers June 2026 price data (the reference month is June). This is the fourth CPI reading of 2026 following reports for January (released February)\, February (March)\, March (April)\, April (May)\, and May (June). The most recent reading\, for April 2026\, showed headline CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year\, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target\, with the monthly increase of 0.6% reflecting continued energy price pressure. \nAs of early June 2026\, no consensus forecast was yet available from major market surveys for the June CPI reading. Consensus estimates of 3.8% year-on-year headline and approximately 2.9% core were compiled by providers including Reuters and Bloomberg in the weeks before the release. \nWhy This CPI Release Matters\nThe July 14 CPI release carried significant weight in the context of US monetary policy and the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 29 rate decision. The FOMC will have access to both the June CPI (July 14) and June PCE data (July 25) before its 28-29 July meeting. Together\, these are the most important inflation inputs for the July FOMC decision. \nInflation in the US accelerated sharply in March and April 2026\, driven primarily by an oil price shock following the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The FOMC has been watching carefully whether this cost-push shock will prove transitory or whether it will generate broader second-round effects through wages and services prices. The June data suggests the energy-driven acceleration has peaked. \nBeyond monetary policy\, the CPI reading matters for real household incomes\, Social Security cost-of-living adjustments\, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) prices\, and the political backdrop in an election environment. Consumer confidence surveys and retail spending data are sensitive to perceived inflation levels\, making the CPI release one of the most widely followed economic data points in the United States. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nHeadline CPI above consensus – A higher-than-expected reading (above the consensus when published) would reinforce the narrative that the Middle East energy shock is keeping inflation elevated. Treasury yields would rise\, equities (particularly growth stocks) would fall\, and the US dollar would strengthen as markets price higher-for-longer Fed rates. The FOMC meeting on 28-29 July would move toward a hawkish hold or even a hike scenario.\nHeadline CPI in line with consensus – An in-line reading would provide some reassurance that inflation is not re-accelerating and would likely result in limited market movement. The FOMC would retain its current stance. Shelter and services components would still receive close scrutiny for signs of stickiness versus goods and energy disinflation.\nHeadline CPI below consensus – A softer-than-expected reading would be bullish for risk assets: equities would rise\, Treasury yields would fall\, and rate cut expectations for the second half of 2026 would increase. The Fed would be more comfortable signalling a patient stance at the July meeting\, and the probability of a rate cut before year-end would rise in market pricing.\n\nUpdate (14 July 2026): The below-consensus scenario materialised. Headline CPI printed at 3.5% against the Dow Jones consensus of 3.8%\, and core CPI at 2.6% against approximately 2.9% expected. Energy prices fell 5.7% on the month\, the primary driver. See the Results section above for full details and market reaction. \nBeyond the headline numbers\, traders focused on core CPI (excluding food and energy)\, shelter inflation\, and supercore CPI (services ex-shelter)\, which the Federal Reserve watches particularly closely. Core shelter inflation remained elevated despite the headline miss\, meaning the Fed will continue to monitor services price dynamics carefully. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nReference Month\nCPI YoY\nMoM (SA)\nKey Driver\n\n\n\n\nJune 2026\n3.5%\n-0.4%\nEnergy decline (ceasefire)\n\n\nApril 2026\n3.8%\n+0.6%\nEnergy\, food\n\n\nMarch 2026\n3.3%\n+0.9%\nEnergy shock onset\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n2.4%\n+0.3%\nShelter\, services\n\n\nDecember 2025\n2.7%\n+0.3%\nShelter\, food\n\n\n\nSources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov). February and May 2026 readings not shown. \nMarket Positioning\nHeading into the July 14 release\, financial markets were positioned for sensitivity to any signal that the inflation trend was turning. The spike in March and April 2026 CPI was unexpected relative to early-year forecasts and caused a repricing of Fed rate cut expectations. The June CPI below 3.8% signals that the energy-driven acceleration peaked in April and that the disinflationary trend of 2025 may be resuming. \nThe US dollar index (DXY) fell 0.6% on the day\, consistent with the cool-print scenario. Gold and rate-sensitive equities\, particularly technology stocks\, responded positively to declining yields. Equity market reaction reflected the reading as a cost-push external shock that is fading rather than entrenched demand-driven inflation\, which proved broadly positive for risk assets. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision July 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s rate decision on 29 July will be directly informed by the June CPI data released on 14 July\, making this the most important pre-FOMC inflation reading.\nUS Retail Sales July 2026 – Retail sales data released on 16 July provides context on consumer spending and demand-side inflation pressures alongside the CPI reading.\nUS CPI Report June 2026 – The prior CPI release (May 2026 data\, released 11 June)\, which established the inflation trend heading into the July report.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the difference between CPI and PCE\, and which does the Federal Reserve use?\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index are both measures of US consumer price inflation\, but they differ in methodology\, scope\, and weighting. The Federal Reserve officially targets PCE inflation at 2% over the medium term\, because PCE adjusts more readily for substitution behaviour (consumers swapping expensive goods for cheaper alternatives)\, covers a broader range of expenditures\, and is considered a more accurate measure of overall consumer price trends. CPI tends to run higher than PCE and is more influenced by shelter costs. However\, CPI is released earlier in each month than PCE and is the first major inflation read markets receive\, making it a key leading indicator for PCE expectations. \nWhen and where is the July 14 CPI release published?\nThe BLS published the June 2026 CPI data at 8:30 am ET on Tuesday\, 14 July 2026\, on the BLS website at bls.gov. The full news release\, including all sub-index data and seasonal adjustment factors\, was available simultaneously. Major financial data terminals (Bloomberg\, Refinitiv) and news services published the headline figures within seconds of the release. \nHow does the CPI reading affect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions?\nThe FOMC uses CPI (alongside PCE and other inflation measures) to assess whether inflation is returning sustainably to the 2% target. A sequence of above-target CPI readings\, particularly if driven by services and shelter rather than transitory energy costs\, would strengthen the case for maintaining restrictive rates or even hiking. A sequence of below-target or rapidly decelerating CPI readings would increase the probability of rate cuts. The July 14 CPI is the last major inflation print before the FOMC’s July 28-29 meeting\, giving it outsized importance for near-term rate expectations.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-july-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260714T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260714T130000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104606Z
CREATED:20260712T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104606Z
UID:1270-1784030400-1784034000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:JPMorgan Chase Q2 2026 Earnings: Results and Market Reaction
DESCRIPTION:JPM Quarterly Earnings: Adj. EPS $6.14 beat ~$5.40 consensus; managed revenue $58.0bn vs $48.73bn; NII guidance raised to $105.5bn. (Tuesday\, July 14\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London)). \n\nActual\nAdj. EPS $6.14 beat ~$5.40 consensus; managed revenue $58.0bn vs $48.73bn; NII guidance raised to $105.5bn.\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nJPMorgan Chase reported Q2 2026 results before US markets opened on Tuesday 14 July 2026\, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The bank reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.14 and managed revenue of $58 billion for the quarter covering April to June 2026\, well ahead of the consensus forecasts of approximately $5.40 EPS and $48.73 billion in revenue. \nJPMorgan again beat expectations in Q2 2026 as it had done in Q1 2026\, when it reported EPS of $5.94 against consensus of approximately $5.40 and revenue of $50.5 billion. The Q2 results delivered the bank’s most profitable quarter on record on a reported basis\, driven by broad-based strength across all business segments. \nResults: JPMorgan Chase Q2 2026 Earnings\nJPMorgan Chase reported Q2 2026 adjusted net income of $16.9 billion\, or $6.14 per share\, beating the analyst consensus of approximately $5.40. Including a $4.6 billion gain on Visa shares and $1.0 billion from equity investments\, GAAP net income reached a record $21.2 billion\, or $7.70 per share. Managed net revenue rose 27% year-on-year to $58 billion\, or 15% excluding significant items. Net interest income was $25.6 billion\, up 10% year-on-year. The bank raised its full-year NII guidance to approximately $105.5 billion from the prior $103 billion\, and increased the quarterly dividend to $1.65 per share. Return on tangible common equity was 23% on an adjusted basis. Credit costs totalled $2.5 billion for the quarter\, reflecting broadly stable consumer and commercial credit quality. \nMarket Reaction\nJPMorgan shares rose 2.3% to $342.23 on the day\, approaching the stock’s 52-week high of $343.45\, as investors responded positively to results that showed strength across all major business lines. Financial sector equities broadly outperformed. The strong JPMorgan results coincided with the release of a softer-than-expected June CPI report\, creating a doubly positive morning for US equities: the S&P 500 closed up 0.47%. The increase in the quarterly dividend and continuation of buybacks were taken as signals of the board’s confidence in the bank’s capital generation capacity. \nKey Takeaways From the Statement\nChief executive Jamie Dimon described the US economy as displaying “notable resiliency\,” citing AI-related capital expenditure and government fiscal stimulus as tailwinds supporting business investment and job creation. However\, his overall tone was decidedly cautious. “It’s getting close to as good as it gets. We just don’t know how long it’s going to last\,” Dimon told analysts. He warned that risks were “shifting below the surface like tectonic plates\,” pointing to geopolitical instability\, persistent inflation pressures\, swelling global fiscal deficits\, and stretched asset valuations as potential sources of meaningful disruption. JPMorgan stated it remains positioned for a wide range of economic outcomes\, maintaining balance sheet strength and liquidity in recognition of the uncertainty ahead. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nJPMorgan’s record profit and raised NII guidance reflect that the current interest rate environment remains supportive of bank profitability. Relatively contained credit costs of $2.5 billion suggest the US consumer and corporate sector remain broadly healthy heading into the second half of 2026. Dimon’s repeated caution about stretched valuations and the interaction of geopolitical risks is a reminder that record bank profits and record equity indices coexist with elevated macro uncertainty. For investors\, the results reinforce the case that large diversified banks can sustain strong earnings even as rate cut expectations build\, but Dimon’s warnings about market valuations warrant attention for those with concentrated equity positions. \nWhat Are the JPMorgan Chase Q2 2026 Earnings?\nJPMorgan Chase is the largest US bank by total assets\, operating across four main segments: Consumer and Community Banking (CCB)\, Commercial Banking\, the Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB)\, and Asset and Wealth Management (AWM). The Q2 2026 results cover the three months to 30 June 2026. \nThe bank’s earnings are directly linked to Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Net interest income\, the spread between what JPMorgan earns on loans and pays on deposits\, is the single largest driver of quarterly profitability. Fed rate decisions during Q2 2026 will have directly influenced this figure\, and any update to full-year NII guidance will be a primary market focus on the earnings call. \nRelease Date and How to Follow\nJPMorgan Chase published Q2 2026 results before US market open on Tuesday 14 July 2026. The earnings press release is available via the JPMorgan Chase investor relations website. An earnings call with CEO Jamie Dimon and CFO Jeremy Barnum took place at approximately 8:30am ET on the same morning. \nResults were covered in real time by major financial press. The 14 July release date coincided with the US CPI report for June 2026\, making it a particularly significant morning for US economic and financial market data. \nWhy These Results Matter\nJPMorgan Chase’s quarterly results are a bellwether for the US financial system. As the largest US bank by assets\, its loan book\, credit card portfolio\, and investment banking activity give the most comprehensive view available of consumer and corporate financial health across the US economy. \nJamie Dimon’s commentary at earnings calls is treated as a significant market event. His assessments of economic conditions\, regulatory risk\, and geopolitical uncertainty frequently move financial sector stocks and influence broader investor sentiment. Any comments on recession risk\, credit deterioration\, or capital allocation priorities will be followed closely by markets. \nJPMorgan is also a central participant in global capital markets through its investment banking and trading operations. Investment banking fees from M&A advisory\, equity issuance\, and debt underwriting provide a live read on corporate confidence and deal flow. Trading revenues from fixed income\, currencies and commodities (FICC) and equities reflect the volatility and volume conditions in global markets through the quarter. \nWhat to Watch For\nNet interest income: NII is the primary profitability driver. Any revision to full-year NII guidance\, set against the backdrop of Federal Reserve rate movements\, will be the central focus of the analyst Q&A. The bank’s NII is sensitive to the pace and direction of rate changes; cuts reduce spreads as the deposit base reprices faster than the loan book. \nCredit quality and loan loss provisions: Rising credit card delinquency rates or an increase in loan loss provisions would signal deteriorating consumer financial health. Conversely\, stable or declining provisions would support the case for consumer resilience. Charge-off rates across credit cards\, auto loans\, and commercial real estate will be scrutinised as leading indicators of credit cycle direction. \nInvestment banking fees: M&A advisory\, equity underwriting\, and debt capital markets revenues will indicate the state of corporate deal flow in Q2 2026. Sustained recovery in investment banking would be positive for both JPMorgan’s results and sentiment across the broader financial sector. \nTrading revenues: FICC and equities revenues from the Markets division reflect conditions in global markets through Q2 2026. Elevated volatility from geopolitical events or policy shifts can drive strong trading quarters even when other segments face headwinds. \nSegment by Segment Expectations\nConsumer and Community Banking: Credit card net charge-off rates and delinquency trends are the primary risk indicators. CCB also includes retail banking deposit flows\, which have been a point of scrutiny across the sector following the 2023 regional banking stress period. Mortgage origination volumes will also be watched in the context of housing market conditions. \nCorporate and Investment Bank: The CIB captures both Markets (trading) and Banking (advisory\, underwriting). Investment banking fee recovery has been progressing since a low point in 2023 and will be measured against Q2 2025 comparables. Strong M&A advisory activity would be a positive signal for the broader deal-making environment. \nCommercial Banking: Middle-market lending and commercial real estate exposure remain areas of focus across the US banking sector. Commercial real estate credit quality has been under scrutiny industry-wide; any update on reserves or write-downs in this area will be closely watched. \nAsset and Wealth Management: Assets under management levels and net inflows will indicate the performance of JPMorgan’s wealth management operations. Strong equity market conditions in Q2 2026 would be expected to support AUM levels and fee income in this segment. \nAnalyst Consensus Estimates\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2026 Consensus\nQ2 2026 Actual\nQ1 2026 Actual\n\n\n\n\nTotal Revenue (managed)\n$48.73 billion\n$58.0 billion (Beat)\n$50.5 billion\n\n\nAdjusted EPS\n~$5.40\n$6.14 (Beat)\n$5.94\n\n\n\nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nQuarter\nRevenue\nEPS\nResult\n\n\n\n\nQ2 2026 (Apr-Jun 2026)\n$58.0 billion\n$6.14 adj. / $7.70 GAAP\nBeat\n\n\nQ1 2026 (Jan-Mar 2026)\n$50.5 billion\n$5.94\nBeat\n\n\nQ2 2025 (Apr-Jun 2025)\n~$44.9 billion\n~$4.40\nBeat\n\n\nQ1 2025 (Jan-Mar 2025)\n~$46.0 billion\n~$5.07\nBeat\n\n\n\nSource: JPMorgan Chase investor relations. Q2 2026 and Q1 2026 per published earnings releases. Q2 2025 and Q1 2025 figures are approximate per public filings. \nMarket Positioning\nJPMorgan entered Q2 2026 with a high bar to clear following its strong Q1 print. Revenue of $50.5 billion and EPS of $5.94 set a level of outperformance that made the Q2 consensus of $48.73 billion and approximately $5.40 EPS appear to represent a sequential step down. That expectation proved too conservative: the bank delivered on all major metrics and then raised full-year guidance. \nThe market’s reaction reflected positive surprise on NII guidance and the stability of credit quality. An upgrade to full-year NII guidance to $105.5 billion signalled that the rate environment is more favourable to bank profitability than previously assumed. Stable credit metrics\, particularly in the credit card and commercial real estate portfolios\, reinforced the case for a healthy US consumer and corporate sector entering the second half of 2026. \nJamie Dimon’s economic commentary was interpreted in the context of current concerns about trade policy impacts\, consumer spending resilience\, and the Federal Reserve’s rate path. His caution about stretched valuations and tectonic geopolitical risks was the one note of reservation in an otherwise strong set of results. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report July 2026 – BLS inflation data for June 2026\, released on the same morning as JPM earnings on 14 July 2026\nMSFT Earnings July 2026 – Microsoft Q4 FY2026 results on 28 July 2026\nMETA Earnings July 2026 – Meta Platforms Q2 2026 results in late July 2026\nFOMC Rate Decision July 2026 – Federal Reserve rate decision directly affecting JPMorgan’s net interest income\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhen does JPMorgan Chase report Q2 2026 earnings?\nJPMorgan Chase reported Q2 2026 earnings before US market open on Tuesday 14 July 2026. \nWhat was the actual JPM Q2 2026 EPS?\nJPMorgan reported adjusted EPS of $6.14 for Q2 2026\, beating the consensus of approximately $5.40. GAAP EPS was $7.70\, including $5.6 billion in pre-tax gains from investments. \nWhat was the Q2 2026 revenue?\nManaged net revenue was $58.0 billion for Q2 2026\, up 27% year-on-year and well ahead of the $48.73 billion consensus. Excluding significant items\, revenue grew 15% year-on-year. \nWhat is the most important metric to watch in JPM Q2 results?\nNet interest income and any revision to full-year NII guidance are the primary metrics. JPMorgan raised full-year NII guidance to $105.5 billion\, up from $103 billion. Credit card charge-off rates are the key risk indicator for consumer financial health. \nWhy does Jamie Dimon’s commentary matter?\nAs head of the largest US bank\, Dimon’s assessments of economic conditions\, regulatory environment\, and market outlook are treated as authoritative. His remarks have historically moved markets in financial sector stocks and occasionally in broader US equity indices. \nPhoto by Nick Chong on Unsplash
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jpm-earnings-july-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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