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DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20260804T000000
DTEND;TZID=UTC:20260804T235959
DTSTAMP:20260825T104543Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104543Z
UID:1323-1785801600-1785887999@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US International Trade Balance August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US International Trade Balance: -$73.0bn (June 2026; prior revised -$77.6bn; consensus ~-$73.5bn) (Tuesday\, August 4\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\n-$73.0bn (June 2026; prior revised -$77.6bn; consensus ~-$73.5bn)\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US International Trade BalanceNext US International Trade Balance →\nThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau released the US International Trade in Goods and Services report for June 2026 on Tuesday\, August 4\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The comprehensive FT-900 report detailed US exports and imports of goods and services for the June 2026 reference month\, completing the Q2 2026 trade picture. The goods and services deficit narrowed to $73.0 billion\, from a revised $77.6 billion in May\, broadly in line with pre-release expectations. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nTuesday\, August 4\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\n8:30 AM ET\n\n\nPublished By\nBEA and US Census Bureau\n\n\nReference Month\nJune 2026 (Q2 final)\n\n\nPrior Reading (March 2026)\n-$60.3bn deficit\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Is the US Trade Balance Report?\nThe US International Trade in Goods and Services report (FT-900) is the joint monthly publication of the BEA and the Census Bureau that measures the difference between US exports and imports of both goods and services. A deficit\, the consistent pattern for the United States\, means imports exceed exports. The report is the most comprehensive monthly trade data available\, covering physical goods (machinery\, vehicles\, consumer products\, food) and services (financial services\, tourism\, royalties\, and travel). \nThe FT-900 is released approximately 35 to 37 calendar days after the end of the reference month. The June 2026 data publishing on August 4 therefore falls within the standard release window. An advance goods-only estimate will have been published earlier (around July 27 to 29)\, providing markets with an early indication of the direction\, but the August 4 FT-900 is the definitive\, comprehensive figure used in GDP revisions and policy analysis. \nThe August 4 release will be particularly significant because it covers the final month of Q2 2026 (April\, May\, June). Combined with the April data (released June 9) and May data (released July 7)\, the June trade balance will allow economists to calculate the net exports contribution to Q2 2026 GDP with greater precision. This matters because earlier in 2026\, a large front-loading of imports ahead of tariff announcements created a significant GDP drag; analysts will be looking for evidence of whether this unwound in Q2. \nUS Trade Balance Release: August 4\, 2026\nThe August 4 report will reveal June 2026 trade flows. Prior months show the deficit stabilising after the extraordinary volatility of 2025\, when the goods trade deficit surged to a record of approximately $136 billion in March 2025 (pre-tariff front-loading) and then narrowed sharply to around $29 billion by October 2025 as tariffs took effect. Since then\, the deficit has progressively widened again: January 2026 came in at $54.5 billion\, February at $57.3 billion\, March at $60.3 billion. The July 7 release will have provided May 2026 data\, and the July-to-August gap will show whether June continued the gradual widening trend or reversed it. \nNo formal consensus estimate for June 2026 trade balance is yet available at time of writing. The prior readings suggest analysts will likely look for a deficit in the $55 billion to $65 billion range\, consistent with the 2026 stabilisation trend. An important factor will be whether services exports held firm: the United States runs a structural surplus in services that helps offset the goods deficit\, and any erosion of that surplus due to reduced global trade in financial services or tourism would widen the total deficit further. \nWhy This Release Matters\nThe August 4 trade data arrives in a critical week for US economic releases. The US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) August 2026 report follows on August 7\, meaning the two data releases together will set the tone for summer economic assessment. A weak trade deficit combined with a strong jobs report would present a mixed but broadly positive macro picture; a wide deficit and soft jobs data would increase recession anxiety. \nFor equity markets\, the trade data matters most to companies with significant international revenue exposure. Technology firms\, aerospace manufacturers\, agricultural exporters\, and large retailers with global supply chains will be most directly affected. A narrowing deficit may indicate stronger export performance\, which tends to support the shares of US multinationals. A widening deficit driven by surging imports suggests strong domestic demand but could also point to continued tariff cost absorption across the supply chain. \nCurrency markets will also react to the data. A surprisingly wide deficit implies greater demand for foreign currencies (to pay for imports)\, which can weaken the US dollar. A surprise narrowing\, indicating either stronger exports or weaker imports\, would tend to support the dollar against major peers including the euro\, yen\, and sterling. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nDeficit narrower than $55bn: A narrowing would positively surprise markets and suggest either stronger exports or weaker imports. This is good news for GDP net exports contribution and would typically support the dollar and lift equity sentiment for export-dependent sectors.\nDeficit in line (approximately $55bn to $65bn): A reading consistent with recent months indicates the post-tariff stabilisation is continuing. Markets are unlikely to react sharply\, and the focus will turn to the Q2 GDP revisions that will incorporate these trade figures.\nDeficit wider than $65bn: A renewed widening would subtract from GDP growth\, potentially pressure the dollar\, and raise questions about whether additional import tariff increases are having the desired effect of rebalancing trade. The impact on equity sentiment depends on whether the wider deficit is driven by strong demand (positive) or weak exports (negative).\n\nNote: The June 2026 result (-$73.0bn) fell in the “Deficit wider than $65bn” scenario. However\, by the time of the August 4 release\, pre-release consensus had been updated to approximately -$73.5bn (using the advance goods data from July 28)\, so relative to that updated expectation\, the result was a marginal beat. \nResults: US International Trade in Goods and Services\, June 2026\nThe BEA and Census Bureau released the FT-900 report on August 4\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The total goods and services trade deficit narrowed to $73.0 billion in June 2026\, from a revised $77.6 billion in May 2026. The result broadly matched the pre-release consensus of approximately $73.5 billion\, which had been calibrated using the advance goods-only report published on July 28. \nThe breakdown by component: \n\nGoods deficit: approximately $102.0 billion (May: approximately $106.5 billion) — imports fell roughly 2.6% to approximately $306.2 billion\, while goods exports declined approximately 1.8%\nServices surplus: approximately $28.5 billion (May: approximately $28.9 billion) — holding broadly steady\n\nThe narrowing was driven primarily by a larger fall in imports than exports on the goods side\, continuing the post-tariff stabilisation pattern described in the preview. The advance goods estimate released July 28 had shown a goods-only deficit of $101.5 billion versus the $100.0 billion estimate\, signalling that June trade flows would be slightly wider than initially anticipated but not dramatically so. \nSources: BEA/Census FT-900 report (August 4\, 2026); Investing.com economic calendar; Continuum Economics pre-release analysis. \nMarket Reaction\nMarkets reacted with limited independent movement to the August 4 trade release. The result had been largely anticipated following the advance goods data published July 28\, which had already absorbed much of the directional surprise. No sharp move in equities\, bonds\, or currencies was attributed specifically to the FT-900 release. The S&P 500 traded without a clear direction from the trade data\, with intraday moves driven by other factors. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.70%\, and the US dollar showed limited reaction against major peers. \nThe muted response is consistent with historical patterns: when the advance goods estimate is available\, the full FT-900 release rarely generates significant incremental price action unless the services component delivers an unexpected result. In June 2026\, services trade was broadly stable\, offering no additional surprise. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe June result was broadly reassuring relative to the preview’s key question of whether the 2026 stabilisation trend would hold. The deficit narrowed from its elevated May level and landed in the “wider than $65 billion” range identified in the “What to Watch For” scenarios above — but critically\, the pre-release consensus had already shifted to around $73.5 billion after the advance goods data\, so the actual print was a marginal beat rather than a miss. No scenario of dramatic further widening materialised. \nFor investors\, the net exports contribution to Q2 2026 GDP will now be slightly less negative than feared after May’s $77.6 billion figure. Economists will incorporate all three Q2 months (April\, May\, June) into their Q2 GDP tracker models ahead of the advance GDP estimate. The focus now shifts to the August 7 Non-Farm Payrolls report and the August 12 CPI release\, which together will set the macro tone for markets heading into the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. \nThe goods-only versus services split carries additional significance. A deterioration in services trade\, normally a US surplus area\, would be a more concerning signal than goods alone widening\, since services exports tend to be less sensitive to tariff policy and more reflective of global demand for US financial\, consulting\, and entertainment services. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nTrade Balance (Goods + Services)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nNovember 2025\n-$56.8bn\nWidening from tariff trough\n\n\nDecember 2025\n-$70.3bn\nYear-end import surge\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n-$54.5bn\nPost-holiday normalisation\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n-$57.3bn\nGradual widening\n\n\nMarch 2026\n-$60.3bn\nGoods-only advance: -$88.7bn\n\n\nJune 2026\n-$73.0bn\nQ2 final month; narrowed from May’s -$77.6bn\n\n\n\nSource: BEA and US Census Bureau. Seasonally adjusted goods and services trade balance. Annual 2025 deficit: $901.5 billion. \nMarket Positioning\nBy early August 2026\, markets will have already received the July 2026 advance goods trade estimate as a guide to June trade trends. The full FT-900 on August 4 will confirm or revise that picture. Any divergence between the advance goods estimate and the final FT-900 (for instance\, a meaningful services component surprise) will generate incremental market reaction. Fixed income markets will pay particular attention to any GDP growth implication: a weaker-than-expected net exports contribution would reduce Q2 GDP estimates\, adding to rate-cut expectations heading into the second half of 2026. \nRelated Events\n\nUS International Trade Balance July 2026 – Released July 7\, the May 2026 trade data will provide the most recent prior reading ahead of this August release.\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) August 2026 – Released August 7\, three days after the trade balance\, providing a concurrent employment picture.\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – The August 12 inflation release will complete the early-August macro picture alongside the trade data.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the difference between the goods trade balance and the full FT-900 report?\nThe advance goods-only trade report covers physical products and is released approximately 25 days after month end. The comprehensive FT-900\, released approximately 35 to 37 days after month end\, adds services trade. The United States runs a structural surplus in services that partially offsets the goods deficit\, so the total goods and services figure is always smaller (in absolute terms) than the goods-only figure. \nWhen is the June 2026 trade balance published?\nThe BEA and Census Bureau will release the US International Trade in Goods and Services report for June 2026 on Tuesday\, August 4\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The report is simultaneously available at bea.gov and census.gov/foreign-trade. \nHow does the trade balance relate to GDP?\nNet exports (exports minus imports) are a direct component of GDP. A widening trade deficit reduces the net exports contribution to GDP\, while a narrowing deficit increases it. Because trade data is released monthly with only a 5 to 6 week lag\, economists update their GDP growth estimates each time the trade report is published. The June trade balance released on August 4 will allow a full Q2 2026 trade picture to be assessed before the advance Q2 GDP estimate is published.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-international-trade-balance-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260807T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260807T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104641Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104641Z
UID:1287-1786091400-1786095000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls): -23\,000 NFP vs +80\,000 expected; unemployment 4.1%; AHE +0.1% MoM / +3.2% YoY (Friday\, August 7\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\n-23\,000 NFP vs +80\,000 expected; unemployment 4.1%; AHE +0.1% MoM / +3.2% YoY\n\nFull schedule and background: US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls). \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls)Next US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) →\nThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Employment Situation report for July 2026 on Friday\, August 7\, 2026. The report showed non-farm payrolls fell by 23\,000 in July\, well below the consensus forecast of +80\,000 and the first negative monthly headline print in the current economic cycle\, giving the Federal Reserve a considerably more complicated picture ahead of its September 2026 meeting. \n\n  At a Glance \n\nRelease date: Friday\, August 7\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. ET\nPublishing body: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\nReference month: July 2026\nJuly 2026 actual result: -23\,000 jobs\, unemployment 4.1% (vs +80\,000 expected)\nMarket impact: High\n\n\nResults: US Employment Situation July 2026\nThe BLS reported that non-farm payrolls fell by 23\,000 in July 2026\, sharply below the consensus forecast of +80\,000 and marking the first negative headline print in the current economic cycle. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%\, though the decline reflected a contraction in the labour force rather than stronger hiring: the labour force participation rate fell to 61.4% from 61.5%\, with 264\,000 people leaving the workforce in July. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-on-month (versus the +0.3% expected) and 3.2% year-on-year (versus +3.5% expected)\, a simultaneous softening of both employment and wage growth. \nPrior-month revisions deepened the weakness considerably. May 2026 payrolls were revised down by 66\,000 to +63\,000\, and June 2026 was revised down by 37\,000 to +20\,000\, leaving the two months combined 103\,000 lower than previously reported. The three-month average now stands at approximately +20\,000\, a sharp deterioration from the 130\,000-185\,000 monthly pace recorded through the first quarter of 2026. \nBy sector\, government payrolls fell 53\,000\, with local government education accounting for a significant share of the decline. Leisure and hospitality shed 40\,000 positions\, including 26\,000 in food services. Retail trade also declined. Manufacturing bucked the weakness\, adding 30\,000 jobs\, and health care continued its trend of modest gains. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics\, Employment Situation Summary\, August 7\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nUS Treasury yields fell sharply following the release as rate-hike expectations retreated. The 2-year note\, most sensitive to Fed policy expectations\, fell 8 basis points to 4.16%\, while the 10-year yield dropped 6 basis points to 4.61%. The US dollar index fell 0.5% to 99.43. Equity markets were mixed: the S&P 500 fell 0.2%\, the Nasdaq declined 0.5%\, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.2%\, suggesting investors viewed the data primarily through the lens of reduced tightening risk rather than immediate recession concern. Fed funds futures shifted to price a 40% probability of a September rate hike\, down from 55% before the release. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe July report represents a material change from the picture painted ahead of the release. At publication\, the key question was whether a resilient labour market would keep the Fed on a tightening path. The July data answers that question decisively: payrolls fell\, prior months were revised far lower than reported\, and wage growth cooled below forecast all at once. The probability of a September rate hike has fallen\, reducing upward pressure on borrowing costs. For those with variable-rate mortgages\, home equity lines\, or floating-rate debt\, this data removes some of the near-term rate risk. For savers in cash and money-market products benefiting from elevated rates\, the window of high returns may be beginning to narrow if the Fed shifts its stance in September. \nWhat is the Employment Situation Report?\nThe Employment Situation is the most closely watched monthly economic release in the United States\, covering two separate surveys. The establishment survey measures non-farm payroll employment (the number of jobs added or lost across the economy\, excluding agricultural workers and the self-employed)\, while the household survey measures the unemployment rate and labour force participation. Together\, they form the most comprehensive monthly snapshot of the US labour market. \nPublished by the BLS on the first Friday of each month\, the report covers the previous calendar month. For August 2026\, the report covers employment data for July 2026. The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) number\, expressed as the net change in jobs\, tends to generate the most immediate market reaction. However\, analysts also examine the unemployment rate\, average hourly earnings (for wage inflation signals)\, labour force participation\, and revisions to the prior two months. \nAverage hourly earnings data is particularly important in 2026 given the elevated inflation environment. Wage growth that exceeds productivity growth can contribute to persistent inflation\, which influences the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. \nUS Employment Situation Release: August 7\, 2026\nThe August 7 release covered July 2026 labour market data. The consensus forecast for July payrolls was approximately +80\,000. The most recent reading at time of initial publication\, released on June 5\, 2026\, showed the US economy added 172\,000 jobs in May\, well above the forecast of 85\,000\, according to BLS data. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in May. \nPrior-month revisions proved significant. In the August 7 release\, May was revised down by 66\,000 to +63\,000 and June was revised down by 37\,000 to +20\,000\, a combined downward revision of 103\,000. These revisions materially altered the picture of labour market momentum in the preceding months. \nWhy This Employment Report Matters\nThe August 7 Employment Situation arrived 35 days before the FOMC meeting on September 16\, 2026. Alongside the August 12 CPI release\, it forms the core of the data set informing the Fed’s September rate decision. A strong labour market typically reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates\, while a weak report increases the argument for easing. \nIn 2026\, the Fed faces a challenging dual-mandate environment: inflation has remained stubbornly above its 2% target while the labour market had remained relatively resilient. The question of whether job growth would maintain its momentum or begin to crack under the weight of higher interest rates was central to the policy debate. The July data suggests the latter: the labour market has weakened materially\, complicating the case for further tightening. \nFor financial markets\, a strong payrolls number would have reduced the probability of a September rate cut\, pushing bond yields higher. The weak July number\, particularly combined with a falling participation rate and soft wage growth\, has shifted the probability distribution meaningfully toward a pause or cut. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove consensus: A payrolls reading significantly above expectations (generally defined as more than 50\,000 above consensus) would reinforce labour market resilience and reduce expectations for near-term rate cuts. Bond yields and the US dollar would rise; equities might sell off on reduced easing expectations\, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.\nIn line with consensus: A broadly expected reading would cause limited immediate volatility. Attention would shift to sub-components: average hourly earnings (above 4% annual growth would be viewed hawkishly)\, the unemployment rate\, and labour force participation. Any unexpected movement in these secondary metrics would move markets.\nBelow consensus: A disappointing payrolls number\, particularly if accompanied by a rising unemployment rate\, would increase expectations of a September rate cut. Bonds would rally\, the US dollar would weaken\, and equities would benefit from reduced rate pressure. A very weak print (below 50\,000) could trigger recession concerns\, which would be negative for risk assets despite the rate-cut implication.\n\nWhich scenario landed: The July result fell squarely into the “Below consensus” category\, with payrolls of -23\,000 dramatically below any forecast scenario. The scenario above anticipated a rising unemployment rate as a further negative signal\, but the July rate ticked down to 4.1% due to labour force contraction rather than new hiring. As expected\, bonds rallied and the US dollar weakened. Equity markets showed only modest mixed moves\, with the Dow edging higher\, consistent with investors weighing reduced tightening risk against broader economic slowdown concerns. \nAverage hourly earnings growth deserves particular attention in the context of 2026’s elevated inflation. The July print of +0.1% month-on-month and +3.2% year-on-year came in below the +0.3% and +3.5% forecasts respectively\, suggesting that the disinflationary trend on the wage side has reasserted itself alongside weaker hiring. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nJobs Added\nUnemployment Rate\n\n\n\n\nJuly 2026\n-23\,000\n4.1%\n\n\nJune 2026 (revised)\n+20\,000\n4.2%\n\n\nMay 2026 (revised)\n+63\,000\n4.3%\n\n\nApril 2026 (revised)\n+179\,000\n4.3%\n\n\nMarch 2026 (revised)\n+185\,000\n4.3%\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n+130\,000\n4.4%\n\n\nMay 2025\n+139\,000\n—\n\n\nJanuary 2025\n+143\,000\n—\n\n\n\nSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. July 2026 figures are as reported on August 7\, 2026. June and May 2026 figures reflect revised readings issued in the August 7 release. 2025 data reflects a period of significantly subdued job growth\, with the annual average approximately 15\,000 jobs per month. \nMarket Positioning\nHeading into August\, markets were finely balanced between hoping for labour market resilience (to confirm economic stability) and hoping for some softening (to give the Fed room to cut). The July data resolved that tension firmly toward the latter: payrolls contracted\, prior months were revised materially lower\, and wages softened. This tension makes the NFP release one of the most unpredictable and market-moving data points each month. The August 7 release\, coming just five weeks before the September FOMC meeting\, proved particularly significant in shifting the rate-path outlook. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – The July 2026 inflation reading\, released just five days after this NFP report\, completing the Fed’s dual-mandate picture ahead of September’s meeting.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s next policy decision on September 16\, for which the August labour and inflation data are the primary inputs.\nRBA Rate Decision August 2026 – The Reserve Bank of Australia’s August policy meeting\, providing a global central bank comparison on labour and inflation dynamics.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the non-farm payrolls figure and why does it matter?\nNon-farm payrolls (NFP) measures the net change in the number of paid workers in the US economy during the reference month\, excluding farm workers\, private household workers\, and employees of non-profit organisations. It is released monthly by the BLS and is the single most market-moving US economic data release. A strong NFP reading signals economic health; a weak reading raises recession concerns. \nWhen exactly was the August 2026 Employment Situation released?\nThe August 2026 Employment Situation report was released on Friday\, August 7\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report covered labour market activity during July 2026. Non-farm payrolls fell by 23\,000\, against a consensus forecast of +80\,000. \nHow does the NFP report affect Federal Reserve policy?\nThe Fed targets maximum employment alongside its 2% inflation goal. A robust labour market reduces the urgency to cut rates; a deteriorating market increases the case for easing. In 2026\, with inflation elevated\, the Fed was also watching wage growth within the NFP release for signs of demand-pull inflation. The July 2026 report\, showing a negative payroll print and below-forecast wage growth\, has reduced the probability of a September 2026 rate hike. \nFeatured image: Photo by Zoshua Colah on Unsplash.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-employment-situation-non-farm-payrolls-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260812T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260812T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104554Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104554Z
UID:1272-1786523400-1786527000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US CPI Report August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US CPI Report: +3.4% YoY\, +0.1% MoM; core +2.5% YoY\, +0.2% MoM (in line with consensus) (Wednesday\, August 12\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\n+3.4% YoY\, +0.1% MoM; core +2.5% YoY\, +0.2% MoM (in line with consensus)\n\nFull schedule and background: US CPI Report. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US CPI ReportNext US CPI Report →\nThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2026 on Wednesday\, August 12\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in July\, matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast across all four metrics. The result continued a downward trend in annual inflation from the 3.8% peak recorded in April 2026\, with energy remaining an elevated but moderating factor in the annual figure. \n\n  At a Glance \n\nRelease date: Wednesday\, August 12\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. ET\nPublishing body: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\nReference month: July 2026\nActual result: +3.4% YoY\, +0.1% MoM; core +2.5% YoY\, +0.2% MoM\nMarket impact: High\n\n\nResults: US CPI Report July 2026\nThe BLS reported that consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) and 3.4% year-on-year in July 2026. Core CPI\, which excludes food and energy\, rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. All four readings matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast exactly. \nThe annual headline rate of 3.4% represents a deceleration from 3.5% in June 2026 and from the 3.8% peak in April 2026\, continuing a gradual cooling trend. The core annual rate of 2.5% is the slowest since March 2021 according to BLS data. Within the components\, shelter was the primary monthly contributor\, rising 0.1% and accounting for roughly two-thirds of the all-items monthly increase. Energy fell 1.5% month-on-month\, though it remains elevated at +14.7% year-on-year\, reflecting the oil price shock linked to geopolitical tensions earlier in 2026. \nSources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index Summary\, August 12\, 2026; CNBC\, August 12\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nMarkets responded positively to the in-line print\, though gains faded through the session as the result was largely priced in. The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to close at 7\,748.50\, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.54% to close at 26\,588.49\, aided partly by a concurrent rally in memory chip stocks on AI demand forecasts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed roughly flat. \nTreasury yields were volatile in the immediate aftermath but settled close to unchanged. The 2-year yield edged up approximately 3 basis points to around 4.24%\, while the 10-year yield hovered near 4.70%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened modestly\, declining toward 99.7\, reflecting reduced pressure for aggressive Fed action. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate hike fell to 40.1% from 54.4% the prior week\, pushing the probability of a hold above 50% for the first time since May 2026. \nSources: Motley Fool\, August 12\, 2026; CNBC\, August 12\, 2026; Barchart\, August 12\, 2026. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe July print reinforces the disinflationary trend building since the April peak. Annual headline inflation has fallen from 3.8% to 3.4% over three months\, and core inflation at 2.5% is approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target from a more comfortable distance than earlier in the year. The September rate hike that markets had partially priced in is now below a 50% probability\, shifting the expected path of interest rates in a more dovish direction. \nFor borrowers\, this trajectory is encouraging: mortgage rates and other credit costs tend to follow long-term Treasury yields\, which remained stable after the print. For savers in high-yield accounts or money market funds\, rates are likely to remain elevated for now as the Fed moves cautiously\, but the ceiling on rates appears to have passed. Equity markets\, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities\, real estate investment trusts\, and technology\, stand to benefit if the disinflationary trend continues into the next CPI release. \nWhat is the Consumer Price Index?\nThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is the most widely followed measure of inflation in the United States. Published monthly by the BLS\, it tracks changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services covering approximately 93% of the US population. The basket includes categories such as housing\, food\, transport\, energy\, medical care\, apparel\, and recreation\, with housing carrying the largest weighting at around 32%. \nThe BLS collects price data from tens of thousands of retail and service establishments across the country. The resulting index is expressed as the percentage change against the same month one year earlier (the year-over-year or YoY rate) and as the month-over-month (MoM) change from the previous release. Core CPI\, which strips out volatile food and energy components\, is watched closely by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) as a measure of underlying inflation trends. \nCPI is released roughly 12 to 13 days after the reference month ends. The August 2026 release covers price changes in July 2026\, giving markets a timely read on whether inflationary pressures are accelerating\, stabilising\, or retreating. \nUS CPI Release: August 12\, 2026\nThe August 12 release covered July 2026 price data. The July reading came in at 3.4% year-over-year and 0.1% month-on-month\, a deceleration from the April 2026 peak of 3.8% that was driven largely by energy prices rising 17.9% on an annual basis\, with gasoline up 28.4% year-over-year. \nMonth-over-month\, consumer prices rose 0.6% in April and 0.9% in March\, indicating that inflationary momentum had been building. Core CPI\, excluding food and energy\, rose to 2.8% year-over-year in April. The July reading\, one of two CPI prints before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in September 2026\, confirmed that inflationary pressures are easing\, reducing the case for an additional rate rise at that meeting. \nWhy This CPI Release Matters\nConsumer price inflation has become a dominant macroeconomic theme in 2026. After a period of relative calm in late 2025\, inflation accelerated sharply in the early months of 2026. The annual rate reached 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April\, driven by an oil price shock linked to conflict in the Middle East. Gasoline prices rose 28.4% year-over-year in April\, pushing total energy costs up 17.9%\, the steepest annual energy price increase since September 2022. \nFor equities\, elevated inflation raises the cost of capital and reduces the present value of future earnings\, particularly for growth-oriented sectors. For bonds\, higher-than-expected inflation typically pushes yields upward and prices lower. The US dollar tends to strengthen when inflation data comes in hotter than forecast\, reflecting expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Commodities and inflation-linked securities often benefit from persistent price pressures. \nThe FOMC has maintained interest rates at elevated levels in response to the inflation resurgence. The July CPI print\, along with the June report\, shaped the Fed’s thinking heading into the September 2026 meeting. A sustained retreat in inflation would open the door to rate cuts; a continued acceleration would press the Fed to hold or tighten further. \nWhat to Watch For\nBeyond the headline year-over-year figure\, analysts and traders will examine several components closely: \n\nAbove consensus: A reading above the prevailing trend (above approximately 3.5-4.0%) would reinforce the case for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer\, likely strengthening the US dollar\, pushing Treasury yields higher\, and pressuring equity valuations. Energy-sensitive names and rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate would face the most pressure.\nIn line with consensus: A reading broadly matching market expectations would be largely absorbed without a significant market reaction. Attention would shift to the underlying detail: whether shelter costs are moderating\, whether core services inflation is cooling\, and whether energy remains the primary driver.\nBelow consensus: A softer-than-expected print would boost sentiment across equities and bonds by raising the prospect of Fed rate cuts. The US dollar would likely weaken\, while interest-rate-sensitive sectors would rally. A reading below 3.0% would be particularly meaningful given the recent trend.\n\nShelter costs and services inflation deserve particular attention. Shelter (primarily owners’ equivalent rent) is the single largest CPI component. Core services ex-shelter\, often called “supercore\,” is the metric the Fed watches most closely as an indicator of demand-driven inflation. Any meaningful deceleration in this component would be a strong signal that underlying inflation is genuinely cooling. \nUpdate (August 12\, 2026): The in-line scenario landed. July CPI came in at exactly the Dow Jones consensus forecast: headline +3.4% YoY\, +0.1% MoM; core +2.5% YoY\, +0.2% MoM. As anticipated under this scenario\, the report was absorbed without significant market disruption. Shelter remained the primary monthly contributor\, and CME FedWatch September hike probability fell below 50%. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nYoY\nMoM\nCore YoY\n\n\n\n\nJuly 2026 (actual)\n3.4%\n+0.1%\n2.5%\n\n\nJune 2026\n3.5%\n+0.1%\n2.6%\n\n\nApril 2026\n3.8%\n+0.6%\n2.8%\n\n\nMarch 2026\n3.3%\n+0.9%\n2.6%\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n2.4%\n+0.2%\n—\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n2.4%\n—\n—\n\n\nDecember 2025\n2.7%\n—\n—\n\n\n\nSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. October and November 2025 data were not published due to the US government shutdown. MoM and core figures not available for all periods shown. June 2026 data sourced from BLS July 2026 release. \nMarket Positioning\nHeading into the second half of 2026\, markets are calibrating inflation expectations against Federal Reserve communications. Fed funds futures have reflected uncertainty about the path of interest rates\, with traders reluctant to price in cuts while inflation remains elevated above the Fed’s 2% target. Treasury yields have risen over the course of 2026 as successive CPI prints have exceeded expectations\, reflecting a reassessment of how long restrictive monetary policy may remain in place. \nIn equity markets\, value and defensive sectors have generally outperformed growth names in this environment. The US dollar has strengthened against major currencies on the back of higher real yields. Gold\, typically a beneficiary of elevated inflation expectations\, has also performed well as investors seek stores of value amid persistent price pressures. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report July 2026 – The preceding monthly CPI release\, covering June 2026 price data\, providing essential trend context for the August reading.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting\, for which the August CPI will be a primary input.\nUS Employment Situation (NFP) July 2026 – The labour market report for June 2026\, completing the Fed’s dual-mandate picture alongside the inflation data.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the CPI measure?\nThe CPI measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services\, including housing\, food\, transport\, energy\, and medical care. It is the most widely followed measure of consumer price inflation in the United States\, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. \nWhen was the August 2026 CPI report released?\nThe August 2026 CPI report was released on Wednesday\, August 12\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report covers price changes during July 2026. The actual result was +3.4% year-on-year and +0.1% month-on-month for headline CPI\, with core CPI at +2.5% year-on-year. \nHow does CPI data affect interest rate decisions?\nThe Federal Reserve uses CPI data as a key input for monetary policy. When inflation is running persistently above the Fed’s 2% target\, the central bank typically holds or raises interest rates to cool demand. A sustained decline in CPI towards target would increase the likelihood of rate cuts\, which would affect borrowing costs across the economy including mortgages\, corporate loans\, and credit cards.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260813T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260813T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104612Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104612Z
UID:1324-1786609800-1786613400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Producer Price Index August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Producer Price Index: Flat (0.0% MoM); 4.7% YoY (vs +0.2% MoM / 4.9% YoY consensus). Core ex-food/energy: +0.2% MoM\, +4.2% YoY. (Thursday\, August 13\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\nFlat (0.0% MoM); 4.7% YoY (vs +0.2% MoM / 4.9% YoY consensus). Core ex-food/energy: +0.2% MoM\, +4.2% YoY.\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Producer Price IndexNext US Producer Price Index →\nUpdate (13 August 2026): The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2026 on Thursday\, August 13\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. Producer prices came in flat on the month (0.0% MoM) and rose 4.7% year-on-year\, below consensus expectations of +0.2% MoM and +4.9% YoY. The result marked a meaningful deceleration from the 6.0% year-on-year readings of April and May 2026\, offering the Federal Reserve a more favourable inflation picture ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nThursday\, August 13\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\n8:30 AM ET\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\n\n\nReference Month\nJuly 2026\n\n\nPrior Reading (May 2026)\n+6.0% year-over-year\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Is the Producer Price Index?\nThe Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\, the PPI measures price changes at the wholesale or producer stage before goods and services reach consumers. Because producers typically pass cost increases along the supply chain over time\, rising PPI is a widely recognised leading indicator of future consumer price inflation. \nThe BLS publishes three main PPI measures: final demand (the headline figure\, covering goods and services sold to end users)\, intermediate demand (prices at earlier production stages)\, and crude materials (raw commodities). The core PPI for final demand\, which excludes volatile food and energy prices\, is closely monitored by policymakers and economists as a measure of underlying inflationary trends. The report is released approximately two weeks after the reference month ends\, positioning the August 13 publication as one of the earliest major inflation data points for July 2026. \nPPI Release: August 13\, 2026\nThe August 13 report will cover July 2026 producer prices. The May 2026 reading showed PPI final demand rising 6.0% year-over-year for the second consecutive month\, maintaining the elevated level first reached in April 2026 when the annual rate surged from 4.3% to 6.0%. This acceleration from the 3.0% full-year 2025 average has been driven by tariff cost pass-through to manufacturers\, energy price increases related to geopolitical tensions\, and elevated transportation and warehousing costs. \nBy August 13\, the June 2026 PPI reading (released July 15) will be available and will provide the most recent prior benchmark. No formal consensus estimate for July 2026 PPI is available at time of writing. The key question for the August 13 release will be whether producer prices have begun to ease as tariff impacts stabilise and year-on-year comparisons grow more demanding (base effects)\, or whether new cost pressures have sustained the elevated 6%-plus annual rate into the summer months. The US CPI Report August 2026 on August 12 will precede the PPI by one day\, setting the inflationary context for markets heading into the August 13 release. \nWhy This PPI Release Matters\nBy August 2026\, the trajectory of producer price inflation will be a central input to Federal Reserve policy discussions for the remainder of the year. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026\, typically held in late August (August 27-29)\, will gather global central bankers and economists to assess the economic outlook. The August 13 PPI release will be one of the final major inflation data points before that gathering\, and a reading that diverges significantly from expectations could significantly alter the tone of discussions at Jackson Hole. \nFor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)\, sustained PPI inflation above 5% would complicate any return to rate-cutting mode. The transmission from producer prices to consumer prices runs on a lag of several months: elevated PPI in spring and summer 2026 would typically be expected to show up in CPI by autumn 2026\, potentially keeping consumer inflation above target. If the August PPI confirms that producer price pressures are abating\, it would strengthen the argument for rate cuts at the September FOMC meeting. \nFor equities\, high PPI is a margin concern for industrial companies\, consumer goods manufacturers\, and retailers who must decide whether to absorb higher costs or pass them on to customers. A sharp deceleration in PPI would be a meaningful positive for corporate earnings forecasts\, particularly for companies in sectors with pricing power constraints. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove 6.5% year-over-year: A further acceleration would confirm that producer price pressures are not abating and signal continued risk of consumer price increases in autumn 2026. Bond yields would likely rise\, rate-cut expectations for September would fall\, and equity sentiment could turn risk-off.\nIn line (approximately 5.0% to 6.5% year-over-year): A reading similar to May and June levels would suggest producer price inflation is high but plateauing. Markets would likely take this as neutral\, with attention shifting to whether base effects begin to pull the annual rate lower in coming months.\nBelow 5.0% year-over-year: A meaningful deceleration would be a positive surprise for markets\, indicating that the worst of the tariff and energy-driven producer price surge may be behind the economy. Bond markets would rally\, equities would broadly benefit\, and rate-cut expectations would increase.\n\nWithin the release\, the services PPI component carries particular Fed relevance. Services producer prices are less affected by tariffs than goods prices and are more directly linked to labour cost trends. If services PPI remains elevated while goods PPI eases\, it signals that labour-market-driven inflation is becoming the primary inflation driver\, a more persistent concern than tariff-driven goods price shocks. \nOutcome (13 August 2026): The July 2026 result of 4.7% year-on-year placed in the below 5.0% year-over-year scenario above\, a positive surprise for markets and the biggest single-month deceleration in the annual rate since January 2026. \nResults: US Producer Price Index July 2026\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that final demand PPI was flat month on month in July 2026 (0.0% MoM)\, undershooting the consensus forecast of +0.2% MoM. On a year-on-year basis\, the headline rate fell to 4.7% from an upwardly revised 5.3% in June 2026\, also below the 4.9% consensus estimate. The result is the lowest year-on-year reading in four months and represents the largest single-month deceleration in the annual rate since January 2026. \nThe softness in the headline was driven primarily by a 3.1% decline in final demand energy prices\, with gasoline falling 5.7%. Final demand goods fell 0.7% month on month overall. Final demand services rose 0.2%\, with portfolio management fees rising and transportation and warehousing costs easing. Core PPI excluding food and energy came in at +0.2% MoM and +4.2% YoY\, in line with expectations. The broader core measure excluding food\, energy\, and trade services rose 0.4% MoM\, signalling some residual stickiness in underlying producer cost pressures outside of energy. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics\, August 13\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nEquities rallied on the softer-than-expected PPI print\, which followed a benign CPI reading the previous day (August 12). The S&P 500 rose 0.5 to 0.7%\, reaching a fresh record near 7\,800. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.15% and the Russell 2000 hit a record high\, with small-cap companies benefiting from reduced pressure on floating-rate debt. The 10-year Treasury yield fell approximately 3 to 5 basis points to around 4.64 to 4.68%. The US dollar index was essentially flat near 100. On CME FedWatch\, the probability of a September rate hold rose to approximately 60 to 68%\, up from around 46 to 50% earlier in the week\, as back-to-back soft inflation prints reduced the case for further Fed tightening. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe July 2026 PPI confirms that the spike in producer price inflation seen in the first half of 2026\, driven largely by tariff pass-through and energy cost increases\, is fading. The deceleration from 6.0% to 4.7% year-on-year removes a significant upside risk to the consumer price outlook for autumn 2026. For bond investors\, easing producer prices reduce the risk of a sustained rise in long-term yields. For equity investors\, softening goods price pressures improve the margin outlook for consumer-facing companies and manufacturers. The Federal Reserve now heads into the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27 to 29) with two consecutive soft inflation prints\, giving policymakers more flexibility to signal a potential move toward rate reductions later in 2026 without credibility risk. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nPPI Final Demand (YoY)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nJune 2025\n+2.3%\nPre-tariff baseline\n\n\nAugust 2025\n+2.6%\nEarly tariff pass-through\n\n\nFull Year 2025\n+3.0%\nAnnual average\n\n\nMarch 2026\n+4.3%\nAcceleration begins\n\n\nApril 2026\n+6.0%\nHighest since Dec 2022\n\n\nMay 2026\n+6.0%\nMaintained at elevated level\n\n\n\nSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics. PPI Final Demand year-over-year percentage change. June and July 2026 readings not yet available at time of writing. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of the August 13 release\, rate futures will reflect expectations shaped by the July 15 PPI (June data)\, the August 12 CPI (July data)\, and the August 7 non-farm payrolls report. A combination of strong employment\, high CPI\, and high PPI on August 13 would suggest that the Fed holds rates at the September meeting. A combination of weaker employment\, lower CPI\, and decelerating PPI would open the door for a rate cut discussion. The August 13 PPI will be the final major inflation data point before the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27-29\, giving it elevated market significance in a traditionally low-liquidity summer trading period. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – Released August 12\, one day before the PPI\, providing the consumer price context for the August 13 producer price data.\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) August 2026 – Released August 7\, the labour market data provides essential context for interpreting whether cost pressures are demand-driven or supply-driven.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The August 27-29 gathering of global central bankers will be the next major policy signal after the August 13 PPI\, with the data feeding directly into policy discussions.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nHow does PPI differ from CPI?\nThe PPI measures price changes from the producer’s perspective\, tracking what sellers receive for their goods and services. The CPI measures price changes from the consumer’s perspective\, covering what households pay for a basket of goods and services. PPI is released approximately one day before CPI each month and is often used as a leading indicator of future consumer price trends. \nWhen is the August 2026 PPI report released?\nThe BLS will release the Producer Price Index for July 2026 on Thursday\, August 13\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The report will be available on the BLS website at bls.gov/ppi immediately following publication. \nWhat causes PPI to rise?\nProducer prices can rise due to higher input costs (raw materials\, energy\, labour)\, supply chain disruptions\, tariffs on imported intermediate goods\, or strong end-user demand that gives producers pricing power. In 2026\, the primary drivers have been tariff-related cost increases on goods producers\, higher energy prices\, and elevated transportation costs. These factors tend to pass through to consumer prices over subsequent months\, though the magnitude and speed of pass-through depends on industry competition and consumer demand sensitivity.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-producer-price-index-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260814T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260814T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104613Z
CREATED:20260812T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104613Z
UID:1308-1786696200-1786699800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Retail Sales August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE): -0.6% MoM vs +0.1% expected; ex-autos: -0.3%; control group: -0.4%; total $763.6bn. (Friday\, August 14\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet available\nActual\n-0.6% MoM vs +0.1% expected; ex-autos: -0.3%; control group: -0.4%; total $763.6bn.\n\nFull schedule and background: US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE). \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE)Next US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) →\nUpdate (14 August 2026): The US Census Bureau released Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for July 2026 on Friday\, August 14\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Retail sales fell 0.6% month on month\, the largest monthly decline in more than a year\, sharply missing the +0.1% consensus forecast. The miss raised concerns about the health of the US consumer ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nFriday\, August 14\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nData Covered\nJuly 2026 retail and food services sales\n\n\nPublished By\nUS Census Bureau\n\n\nPrior Reading (MoM)\n+0.5% (April 2026)\n\n\nPrior Reading (YoY)\n+4.9% (April 2026)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh\n\n\n\nWhat is the US Retail Sales Report?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services\, commonly known as retail sales\, is published by the US Census Bureau each month and provides the earliest estimate of consumer spending at US retail establishments. The report covers sales at all types of retailers\, from motor vehicle dealers and petrol stations to food and beverage stores\, clothing outlets\, and online retailers. Retail trade accounts for a substantial share of US personal consumption\, which itself represents approximately 70% of gross domestic product\, making the retail sales report one of the most watched leading indicators of economic health. \nThe report is published as an advance estimate\, typically released around 12 to 14 days after the reference month ends. It is subsequently revised in the Monthly Retail Trade survey. The advance estimate is subject to revision\, but financial markets react primarily to this initial release since it is the first available reading. The headline figure covers total retail and food services sales\, but economists also monitor the “control group” measure (which excludes motor vehicles\, petrol stations\, building materials\, and food services) as it maps more closely to the consumer spending component of GDP. \nFor August 14\, the Census Bureau will release July 2026 data. July is typically a strong month for retail activity\, with summer consumer spending on travel\, electronics\, and seasonal goods. The figure will be scrutinised against the backdrop of persistently elevated PCE inflation and tight credit conditions to assess whether the US consumer is holding up or beginning to retrench. \nUS Retail Sales Release: August 14\, 2026\nConsensus forecasts for the August 14 release will be available in the week prior to the report\, informed by the May and June retail sales data that precede it. The most recent confirmed monthly reading (April 2026: +0.5% MoM) showed a moderation after the unusually large March jump of +1.7%\, which was driven by a record 15.5% surge in petrol station receipts amid elevated fuel prices in early 2026. Markets will be looking to assess whether underlying consumer demand\, stripped of the petrol price distortion\, has remained stable. \nThe August 14 release falls at an important juncture. The US CPI Report for August 2026\, published on August 12\, will be available just two days earlier\, giving traders an initial inflation read before the retail spending data arrives. Together\, CPI (August 12) and retail sales (August 14) form a two-day data cluster that will heavily influence near-term assessments of the US economy ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning August 27. \nThe US Employment Situation for August 2026\, released August 7\, will be the other key input for traders building their position ahead of Jackson Hole. Strong jobs data followed by firm retail sales would paint a resilient consumer picture and reduce the probability of a near-term rate cut. \nWhy This Retail Sales Release Matters\nRetail sales in July 2026 will provide the first hard evidence of how summer consumer spending is tracking. Economists use monthly retail sales data alongside personal consumption expenditures figures to estimate Q3 GDP growth in real time. A strong July reading\, particularly in the control group\, would support a robust Q3 GDP estimate and suggest the US economy is absorbing the Fed’s tightening without significant consumer-side weakness. \nConversely\, a weak July retail sales print would add to the growing body of evidence that high PCE inflation is eroding real consumer purchasing power. Core PCE has risen from 2.7% in October 2025 to 3.3% by April 2026\, and if nominal retail spending growth is slowing while price levels remain elevated\, it implies real consumer spending is contracting. That would be a meaningful signal for policymakers debating whether restrictive rates are doing more harm than good. \nThe petrol station component bears watching. March 2026 saw a 15.5% surge in petrol receipts that distorted the headline retail number significantly. If fuel prices have stabilised or declined into July\, the petrol component should be a neutral or negative contributor\, allowing the underlying trend in discretionary spending to be more visible. Markets will strip out this component and focus on the core retail sales figures. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nHeadline retail sales above +0.6% MoM – A strong reading above consensus would signal consumer resilience and reduce the probability of a September rate cut. Likely to support equities in the consumer discretionary and financial sectors\, lift the dollar\, and push Treasury yields slightly higher.\nHeadline retail sales between +0.2% and +0.5% MoM – A solid but unspectacular reading consistent with modest consumer spending growth. Market reaction is likely to be muted; expectations for the Fed’s September decision will be informed primarily by the CPI and PCE reports.\nHeadline retail sales at or below 0.0% MoM – A flat or negative reading would raise concerns about consumer health and increase calls for a rate cut. Likely to weigh on equities\, push Treasury yields lower\, and potentially weaken the dollar.\n\nThe control group measure (ex-autos\, ex-gas\, ex-building materials\, ex-food services) will be the most important single number in the report\, as it feeds directly into the GDP consumption component. Analysts tracking real-time Q3 GDP estimates will revise their figures in the minutes following the 8:30 a.m. release based on the control group outcome. \nOutcome (14 August 2026): Retail sales came in at -0.6% MoM\, placing the result in the flat or negative scenario above. The miss was the largest in more than a year and ended a six-month streak of consecutive monthly gains in the control group. \nResults: US Retail Sales July 2026\nUS retail sales fell 0.6% month on month in July 2026\, according to the Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales release (14 August 2026). Total retail turnover came in at $763.6 billion\, down from a revised $768.6 billion in June. Year-on-year growth slowed to +5.0% from +6.7%. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.3% (consensus: +0.2%). The control group measure (ex-autos\, ex-gas\, ex-building materials\, ex-food services) fell 0.4%\, its first negative reading since September 2025 and the end of a six-month consecutive monthly gain streak. Motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%; non-store (online) retailers fell 2.2%; electronics and appliances fell 0.5%; petrol stations fell 0.9%. Partial offsets came from clothing stores (+1.9%) and food services (+0.5%). Source: US Census Bureau\, August 14\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nUS equities pulled back on the miss: the S&P 500 fell 0.2%\, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%\, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Treasury yields moved higher counterintuitively\, as persistent inflation concerns outweighed the growth slowdown signal from the retail data. The 10-year yield rose approximately 6 to 7 basis points to 4.696%; the 30-year yield rose approximately 6 basis points to 5.27%; the 2-year yield rose approximately 3 basis points to 4.17%. The US dollar index retreated to 99.50\, down 0.4 to 0.7% against major peers\, as the weaker spending data reinforced a more cautious near-term economic outlook despite the yield moves. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe control group contraction reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September meeting and reinforces a more cautious consumer spending outlook heading into Q3 2026. The counterintuitive rise in bond yields on the day reflects that markets remain more concerned about sticky inflation than slowing growth\, keeping the Fed in a difficult position. For investors\, the combination of soft spending and elevated inflation points toward continued volatility in rate-sensitive sectors. The data will feed directly into discussions at the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27 to 29)\, where the Fed Chair is likely to emphasise a data-dependent approach rather than signal a clear rate move. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Month\nData Month\nMoM Change\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nApril 2026\n+0.5%\n+4.9% YoY; moderation after March spike\n\n\nApril 2026\nMarch 2026\n+1.7%\nAbove +1.4% consensus; petrol stations +15.5%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nFebruary 2026\n+0.7%\nUpwardly revised; solid underlying demand\n\n\nJan 2026\nDecember 2025\n~0.0%\nEssentially flat; holiday season normalisation\n\n\n\nThe March 2026 spike in retail sales\, driven by a 15.5% surge in petrol station receipts\, created significant noise in the headline figures. Underlying consumer demand\, as measured by the control group\, has been more stable. Markets have learned to look through petrol-driven distortions when assessing the fundamental trend in consumer spending. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of August 14\, market positioning will be shaped by the July employment report (August 7) and the August CPI print (August 12). A strong NFP figure followed by firm CPI and solid retail sales would form a “trifecta” of resilient US economic data that significantly diminishes the probability of a September rate cut. In that scenario\, the US dollar would be expected to strengthen against major peers\, Treasury yields would rise\, and the equity market may see rotation from rate-sensitive sectors toward financials and energy. \nWeaker-than-expected readings across these three data points would build the case for a September cut and produce the opposite market reaction: lower yields\, a softer dollar\, and rotation into growth and technology stocks. The proximity of the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27-29) means these August data prints carry additional weight\, as they directly inform the narrative the Fed Chair presents at the most watched central banking conference of the year. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – Released two days earlier on August 12\, providing the July inflation reading that pairs with retail sales to assess the health of the US consumer.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 – Released August 26\, the PCE report provides a complementary consumer spending and inflation read for July 2026.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The symposium begins August 27\, two weeks after the retail sales release; the July spending data will be directly referenced in discussions about the economic outlook.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the US retail sales report measure?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services measures total receipts at US retail businesses\, including motor vehicle dealers\, fuel stations\, food stores\, clothing retailers\, and online sellers. It covers sales of goods (not services) and is the first monthly estimate of consumer spending on goods\, making it a leading indicator for both GDP and broader economic trends. \nWhen is the August 2026 retail sales report released?\nThe Census Bureau will publish the July 2026 advance retail sales report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday\, August 14\, 2026. \nWhat is the “control group” in retail sales and why does it matter?\nThe retail sales control group excludes motor vehicles\, petrol stations\, building materials\, and food services. This measure feeds directly into the personal consumption component of GDP calculations\, making it the figure economists use when estimating quarterly economic growth in real time. A strong control group reading is a direct positive signal for Q3 2026 GDP estimates.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-retail-sales-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260818T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260818T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104615Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104615Z
UID:1325-1787041800-1787045400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts): 1.239 million SAAR (vs 1.350 million consensus); -12.4% MoM; permits beat at 1.443 million SAAR (+5.0% MoM) (Tuesday\, August 18\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\n1.239 million SAAR (vs 1.350 million consensus); -12.4% MoM; permits beat at 1.443 million SAAR (+5.0% MoM)\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts)Next US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) →\nThe US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released the New Residential Construction report for July 2026 on Tuesday\, 18 August 2026\, at 8:30 AM EDT. Total housing starts came in at 1.239 million units (SAAR)\, significantly below the consensus forecast of approximately 1.350 million units and down 12.4% from the revised June figure of 1.415 million\, the weakest pace for single-family starts since late 2022. Building permits provided the sole positive surprise\, rising 5.0% to 1.443 million units. The report arrives in a data-heavy week alongside retail sales and the producer price index. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nTuesday\, August 18\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\n8:30 AM EDT\n\n\nPublished By\nUS Census Bureau and HUD\n\n\nReference Month\nJuly 2026\n\n\nPrior Reading (April 2026)\n1\,465\,000 units (SAAR)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Are Housing Starts?\nHousing starts measure the number of new residential construction projects that begin in a given month\, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The monthly New Residential Construction report\, jointly published by the Census Bureau and HUD\, covers single-family homes and multi-family structures of five units or more. It is released on the 12th working day after the reference month\, placing the August 18 publication squarely within the standard release calendar for July 2026 data. \nThe report includes three components: starts (projects begun)\, building permits (approvals to build\, a forward-looking signal)\, and completions (units finished and entering the housing supply). All three are reported as seasonally adjusted annual rates and broken down by region and unit type. Single-family starts and permits receive particular attention as the most direct indicator of homebuilder confidence and consumer housing demand. \nHousing starts connect directly to employment in construction and related industries\, materials demand across the supply chain\, and consumer spending on home-related goods and services. For the Federal Reserve (the Fed)\, the new housing supply produced by construction activity is a key long-term driver of shelter cost inflation\, making starts data relevant to the inflation outlook across a multi-year horizon. \nHousing Starts Release: August 18\, 2026\nThe August 18 report will reveal July 2026 housing starts. By this date\, the May 2026 data (released June 16)\, June 2026 data (released July 17)\, and July data will together establish the summer construction trend. As of writing in early June 2026\, the most recent confirmed reading is April 2026 at 1\,465\,000 starts (SAAR)\, slightly below March’s 1\,502\,000. July represents the height of the summer building season in the northern United States\, when weather conditions are most favourable for construction across all regions. \nNo consensus forecast for July 2026 housing starts is available at time of writing. The summer months of 2026 will test whether the construction industry can maintain the elevated levels seen in early 2026\, or whether rising material costs\, tighter builder margins driven by energy and input cost inflation\, and persistent affordability challenges for buyers weigh on new project starts. The US New Residential Construction July 2026 report on July 17 will provide the most recent prior reading ahead of this August release. \nWhy This Release Matters\nThe August 18 housing starts data arrives in the same week as the US Retail Sales August 2026 report (August 14) and the US Producer Price Index August 2026 report (August 13). This confluence of major releases in the second week of August creates a dense data environment that will shape the economic narrative heading into the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 27-29\, where Fed Chair and other central bankers typically signal the direction of monetary policy for the remainder of the year. \nHousing starts data also feeds into the broader story of housing supply and affordability. A sustained period of strong new construction would add supply to a market that has been characterised by under-building relative to household formation for much of the 2010s and early 2020s. Increasing supply\, all else equal\, tends to dampen home price appreciation and eventually reduce the shelter CPI component\, which has been a persistent source of consumer inflation. For the Fed\, strong housing supply growth is therefore a medium-term disinflationary force even as it reflects short-term economic strength. \nIn equity markets\, homebuilder shares\, building material companies\, and mortgage providers will be most directly affected. The August 18 release also has implications for home improvement retailers and appliance manufacturers\, whose sales are closely linked to new construction volumes. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove 1\,490\,000 units: A strong reading would confirm that the summer building season has sustained momentum from spring 2026\, boosting homebuilder equities and signalling resilient residential investment in Q3 GDP. For the Fed\, continued strong housing activity would reduce the urgency for stimulative rate cuts.\nIn line (approximately 1\,440\,000 to 1\,490\,000 units): A reading consistent with the 2026 range would confirm stability. Market reaction would likely be muted\, with the focus shifting to building permits as the more forward-looking component.\nBelow 1\,400\,000 units: A meaningful miss\, particularly if also accompanied by weak building permits\, would raise concern about a deterioration in housing market conditions heading into the autumn. Homebuilder stocks would face selling pressure\, and the data would add to arguments for Fed rate cuts at the September meeting.\n\nKey sub-components to monitor: single-family starts (most economically sensitive)\, building permits (forward-looking signal for the next one to three months)\, and the regional breakdown\, particularly the South\, which accounts for the largest share of US housing construction and is most representative of national trends. \nUpdate\, 18 August 2026: The actual July reading of 1.239 million units fell significantly below the 1\,400\,000-unit threshold identified as the key concern scenario. Single-family starts of 808\,000 SAAR were the weakest since late 2022. Building permits were the sole bright spot. Full results and market reaction below. \nResults: July 2026 Housing Starts\nTotal housing starts for July 2026 came in at 1.239 million units (SAAR)\, according to the US Census Bureau and HUD\, a significant miss relative to the consensus forecast of approximately 1.350 million units. The reading represented a month-on-month decline of 12.4% from the revised June figure of 1.415 million\, and was 13.5% lower year-on-year compared with July 2025’s 1.432 million. Single-family starts fell to 808\,000 SAAR\, down 9.9% from June and the weakest reading for that category since late 2022. Multi-family starts (five units or more) dropped approximately 16.8% month-on-month to around 431\,000 SAAR. Housing completions fell 9.1% to 1.212 million SAAR\, the lowest level since May 2020. The sole positive component was building permits\, which rose 5.0% month-on-month to 1.443 million SAAR\, beating the expected consensus of approximately 1.370-1.380 million. Single-family permits rose 2.5% to 894\,000 and multi-family permits increased 9.4% to approximately 549\,000. The divergence between rising permits and sharply falling starts suggests builders are filing plans but pausing on groundbreaking\, likely due to affordability constraints and the 30-year mortgage rate standing at approximately 6.75-6.77%\, near the highest level of 2026. (Sources: US Census Bureau and HUD New Residential Construction press release; NAHB Eye on Housing; Reuters/Investing.com.) \nMarket Reaction\nUS Treasury yields rose sharply on 18 August 2026\, with the 10-year yield reaching approximately 4.70-4.75% and the 30-year bond yield approaching 5.29-5.32%\, near a 19-year high\, as broader fiscal and inflation concerns combined with the weak housing data to sustain selling pressure in the bond market. The S&P 500 fell 0.69% to approximately 7\,691\, its third consecutive declining session\, with the housing starts miss contributing to a broader risk-off tone alongside elevated energy prices and semiconductor sector weakness. The NAHB Housing Market Index for August\, released the previous day\, came in at 35\, marginally above July’s 34 but well below its long-run average of approximately 51\, consistent with the depressed construction activity reported in the July starts data. (Sources: TheStreet stock market recap; Yahoo Finance live markets; NAHB Eye on Housing August 2026.) \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe July 2026 housing starts miss has practical implications across a range of financial situations: \n\nProspective homebuyers: Fewer new homes being built tightens housing supply at a difficult moment. With mortgage rates near their 2026 highs of approximately 6.75-6.77%\, the combination of constrained new supply and elevated borrowing costs continues to restrict affordability for first-time buyers in the US.\nExisting homeowners: Persistently low new supply continues to support home values in most US markets. However\, elevated mortgage rates reduce refinancing opportunities and constrain the move-up market\, limiting homeowners’ ability to realise that equity through a sale.\nBond and fixed-income investors: The 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5.30% reflects a market pricing in sustained inflation pressure and fiscal risk. The weak housing data may\, over the medium term\, add to the case for the Fed to cut rates if shelter inflation moderates as a result of sustained supply shortfalls meeting declining demand.\nFederal Reserve watchers: The weak starts data adds to the argument for rate cuts at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. However\, the Fed is balancing elevated long-term bond yields and sticky services inflation against signs of housing market deterioration. The building permits beat provides some evidence that the construction sector is not in freefall\, which may moderate urgency for immediate easing. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 27-29 August is the next major signpost.\nPension savers and index investors: The S&P 500 decline on 18 August\, driven partly by the housing miss and partly by broader bond yield concerns\, continues a pattern of late-summer volatility. Investors in global equity tracker funds will have seen modest losses on the day\, with the decline broad-based across sectors.\n\nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nActual (SAAR\, thousands)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n1\,487\nPost-holiday surge\n\n\nMarch 2026\n1\,502\n2026 high to date\n\n\nApril 2026\n1\,465\n-2.8% pullback\n\n\nMay 2026\nTBC (released June 16)\n–\n\n\nJune 2026\nTBC (released July 17)\n–\n\n\nJuly 2026\nTBC (released August 18)\nPeak summer month\n\n\n\nSource: US Census Bureau and HUD. All figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) in thousands of units. \nMarket Positioning\nBy mid-August 2026\, the market will have a fuller picture of H1 2026 housing trends from the May\, June\, and July data releases. If the pattern shows sustained starts above 1\,460\,000 through the spring and summer\, it will be a positive signal for housing supply and a potential disinflationary tailwind for shelter costs in H2 2026 and into 2027. A pattern of slowing starts would paint a less encouraging picture and increase concern about housing supply constraints persisting. \nThe August 18 release also comes just before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 starting August 27\, making it one of the final major domestic economic data points before global central bankers convene to discuss the economic outlook. A strong set of August data releases\, including housing\, could set a confident tone ahead of Jackson Hole. A weak set would raise the stakes for any policy signal from the Fed Chair. \nRelated Events\n\nUS New Residential Construction July 2026 – Released July 17\, providing the most recent prior housing starts reading ahead of this August release.\nUS Retail Sales August 2026 – Released August 14 in the same week\, providing a concurrent read on consumer spending conditions in July.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The August 27-29 gathering will incorporate the July housing data as part of the economic assessment presented by Fed officials.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the August 2026 housing starts report cover?\nThe New Residential Construction report released on August 18\, 2026\, covers July 2026 data. It includes housing starts (projects begun in July)\, building permits (approvals issued in July)\, and housing completions (units finished in July). All figures are expressed as seasonally adjusted annual rates in thousands of units. \nWhen is the August 2026 housing starts data released?\nThe US Census Bureau and HUD will publish the New Residential Construction report for July 2026 on Tuesday\, August 18\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM EDT. The report is available on the Census Bureau website at census.gov/construction/nrc immediately upon release. \nWhy do housing starts matter for inflation?\nNew home construction adds to the supply of housing available for purchase or rent. A sustained increase in construction activity tends to moderate home price appreciation and\, over a lag of one to two years\, can reduce rent pressures. Because shelter costs (owners equivalent rent and actual rents) comprise a substantial share of the Consumer Price Index\, increases in housing supply are an important long-term disinflationary force. The Federal Reserve factors housing activity into its multi-year inflation outlook for this reason.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-new-residential-construction-housing-starts-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260820T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260820T130000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104626Z
CREATED:20260818T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104626Z
UID:1326-1787227200-1787230800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:WMT Earnings August 2026
DESCRIPTION:WMT Quarterly Earnings: Adj. EPS $0.81 (beat $0.75 consensus); Revenue $187.9bn (beat $186.94bn guidance); Walmart US comp sales +2.6% (missed ~3.7% estimate); Operating income +28.8% (incl. ~$2.9bn one-time tariff refund); FY2027 EPS guidance raised to $2.80-$2.87 (Thursday\, August 20\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nEPS $0.72-$0.74 (company guidance)\, analyst consensus $0.75; Revenue ~$186.9bn\nActual\nAdj. EPS $0.81 (beat $0.75 consensus); Revenue $187.9bn (beat $186.94bn guidance); Walmart US comp sales +2.6% (missed ~3.7% estimate); Operating income +28.8% (incl. ~$2.9bn one-time tariff refund); FY2027 EPS guidance raised to $2.80-$2.87\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nWalmart (NYSE: WMT) published its Q2 FY2027 earnings results on Thursday\, 20 August 2026\, before market open\, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $0.81 against an analyst consensus of $0.75. Total revenue of $187.9 billion exceeded guidance\, though Walmart US comparable store sales grew just 2.6% (excluding fuel)\, falling short of the approximately 3.7% estimate. WMT shares fell 9.1% on the day as investors focused on the quality of the earnings beat and soft Q3 guidance. Full results\, market reaction\, and analysis are set out below. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nEarnings Date\nThursday\, August 20\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\nBefore market open (7:00 AM CT)\n\n\nFiscal Quarter\nQ2 FY2027 (ended July 31\, 2026)\n\n\nAnalyst EPS Consensus\n$0.75\n\n\nCompany Revenue Guidance\n$186.94bn\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Is the Walmart Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report?\nWalmart Inc. is the world’s largest retailer by revenue\, operating over 10\,500 stores across 19 countries under banners including Walmart\, Sam’s Club\, and Flipkart. Its fiscal year runs from February 1 to January 31\, meaning Q2 FY2027 covers the three months from May 1 to July 31\, 2026. Walmart reports quarterly earnings four times per year\, with results typically released before market open followed by a management conference call for investors and analysts. \nAs the largest single employer in the United States and a dominant force in consumer staples and grocery retail\, Walmart’s earnings are widely treated as a barometer for the health of the American consumer. The company’s ability to maintain or grow comparable store sales across income segments provides a direct read on spending patterns that neither government data nor any other single retailer can match. Walmart has increasingly disclosed granular data on customer income demographics\, making its commentary on consumer behaviour a data source that economists\, policymakers\, and market strategists analyse closely. \nThe Q2 FY2027 report will cover a quarter that spans the late-spring to early-summer period of 2026\, capturing both back-to-school pre-planning spending and the ongoing effects of tariff-driven goods price inflation on consumer purchasing decisions. With fuel costs elevated throughout the quarter and consumer confidence at or near record lows according to the University of Michigan survey\, the interplay between volume and price across Walmart’s categories will be a central focus of the August 20 release. \nWalmart Q2 FY2027: What to Expect\nWalmart provided guidance for Q2 FY2027 during its Q1 FY2027 earnings call in May 2026. The company guided for adjusted earnings per share of $0.72 to $0.74 (USD) for Q2\, compared to the analyst consensus estimate of $0.75. Revenue guidance was set at approximately $186.94 billion. This guidance came slightly below analyst expectations\, with Walmart citing higher fuel costs in distribution and fulfilment as a 250 basis point drag on operating income and expressing caution about whether lower-income consumers would pull back further as gas prices remained elevated. \nIn Q1 FY2027\, Walmart delivered revenue of $177.8 billion (a 7.3% year-over-year increase that beat analyst expectations of $174.98 billion)\, with adjusted EPS of $0.66 in line with consensus. Comparable US store sales rose 4.1%\, excluding fuel\, ahead of the expected 3.85%. E-commerce volume grew 26% and the advertising segment expanded 37%. The Q1 result demonstrated that Walmart’s scale and everyday-low-price positioning allow it to attract cost-conscious consumers even in a high-inflation environment. \nFor Q2\, analysts will assess whether Walmart can sustain the revenue momentum while managing fuel\, labour\, and tariff-related cost pressures. The company’s pharmacy division\, membership-based Sam’s Club\, and high-growth Walmart+ subscription service will all be scrutinised for signals of structural revenue diversification beyond core grocery and general merchandise. \nWhat to Watch For\nThe Q2 FY2027 earnings report will be evaluated across several key dimensions: \n\nBeat on EPS and Revenue: If Walmart reports adjusted EPS above $0.75 and revenue above $186.94 billion\, the market is likely to react positively. A beat would signal that Walmart’s cost management is effective and that consumer demand remains robust enough to absorb higher prices. Shares could rise 2% to 4% in early trading\, and other large-cap retailers may benefit from read-across sentiment.\nIn Line with Guidance: EPS in the $0.72 to $0.74 range with revenue near $186.94 billion would confirm guidance but fall short of analyst consensus\, likely producing a muted or slightly negative share price reaction. Attention would shift to FY2027 full-year guidance and management commentary on the consumer outlook.\nMiss on EPS or Revenue: A miss below guidance would be a significant negative signal. Given that Walmart had already set conservative guidance\, a miss would raise concerns that consumer demand is weakening more sharply than expected. Shares could fall 3% to 6%\, and the negative read-across to other consumer-facing companies could pressure the broader retail sector.\n\nOutcome: Walmart beat on both adjusted EPS ($0.81 vs $0.75 consensus) and revenue ($187.9bn vs $186.94bn guided)\, placing the result closest to the “Beat on EPS and Revenue” scenario. However\, the stock did not rise as the scenario anticipated. Instead WMT fell 9.1%\, because markets focused on the soft Walmart US comparable store sales (+2.6% vs ~3.7% expected)\, the non-recurring tariff refund that inflated operating income\, and Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.62-$0.64 that was below consensus. The 9.1% decline exceeded even the “Miss” scenario’s projected 3%-6% fall\, illustrating that guidance quality and earnings mix mattered more than the headline beat. \nBeyond the headline numbers\, the conference call commentary from Walmart’s management team on consumer behaviour will be of particular value. Any changes in the mix of spending between grocery and general merchandise\, signals of lower-income consumer stress\, or updates to the trajectory of fuel and logistics costs will influence market interpretation of the results and of the broader consumer spending outlook for Q3 2026. \nResults: WMT Earnings August 2026\nWalmart reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.81 for Q2 FY2027\, beating the analyst consensus of $0.75 and comfortably above the company’s own guidance range of $0.72 to $0.74. Total revenue reached $187.9 billion\, up 5.9% year-on-year and above the guided figure of $186.94 billion. Reported operating income rose 28.8% to $9.4 billion\, though analysts noted this included an estimated $2.9 billion one-time benefit from tariff refunds\, a figure that is not expected to recur in subsequent quarters. \nWalmart US comparable store sales grew 2.6% (excluding fuel)\, missing the analyst estimate of approximately 3.7%. Transaction growth was +1.5% and average ticket growth +1.1%. Sam’s Club US comparable sales grew 4.4% (excluding fuel)\, driven by 7.0% transaction growth. E-commerce growth and advertising revenue expansion continued at elevated rates. Walmart raised its FY2027 full-year guidance: net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% (from 3.5% to 4.5%)\, adjusted operating income growth of 7.0% to 8.5% (from 6.0% to 8.0%)\, and adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $2.87 (from $2.75 to $2.85). Q3 adjusted EPS guidance was set at $0.62 to $0.64\, a figure below consensus that became the primary driver of the negative market reaction. \nSources: Walmart Inc. Q2 FY2027 earnings press release\, corporate.walmart.com\, 20 August 2026; SEC Form 8-K\, earningsreleasefy27q2.htm; CNBC earnings analysis\, 20 August 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nWMT shares fell 9.1% on 20 August 2026\, declining from approximately $114 at the prior close to around $103.84 by the end of the session. This was Walmart’s worst earnings-day stock reaction in 10 consecutive quarters and the fourth consecutive negative share price response on an earnings day. Three factors drove the decline: the comparable store sales miss in the US core business\, market scepticism about the tariff-refund component of operating income\, and Q3 EPS guidance of $0.62 to $0.64 that signalled the outsized boost was not repeating. Notably\, Walmart had repurchased 25.7 million shares at an average price of $117.61 during Q2\, meaning the buyback occurred at prices well above the post-results market level. \nThe broader equity market declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% (approximately 700 points)\, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.0%\, and the S&P 500 fell 0.8%. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.69% and the 30-year yield rose 4 basis points to 5.24%. Retail sector stocks broadly fell in sympathy with Walmart. Markets partially recovered the following day\, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.43%\, the Nasdaq 0.43%\, and the Dow 0.98%. \nKey Takeaways From the Statement\nChief executive John Furner said Walmart had seen “unprecedented growth” in advertising\, membership\, and data services over the past two decades\, highlighting the diversification of revenue beyond core retail. Chief financial officer John David Rainey described the business model as “only getting stronger and more durable.” Management cited elevated fuel prices (Brent crude near $93 per barrel during the quarter) as a headwind for lower-income consumers and noted customers were making “trade-offs” in discretionary purchasing. \nThe company confirmed it has continued to attract higher-income consumers (households earning above $100\,000 annually)\, a demographic shift that analysts at Coresight Research described as a structural positive. The Q3 guidance\, however\, made clear that the tariff-refund benefit was a one-time item and that full-year EPS guidance\, while raised\, reflected a more modest underlying trajectory than the headline Q2 beat suggested. Management did not signal any change in the pace of store openings or capital investment programmes. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe Q2 FY2027 result illustrates how earnings quality can matter as much as headline numbers. Walmart beat on both EPS and revenue\, and raised full-year guidance\, yet the stock fell more sharply than it would have on an outright miss. The core issue is that the $2.9 billion tariff-refund benefit was non-recurring: strip it out\, and the operating income picture looks more modest. The Walmart US comparable store sales reading of +2.6% pointed to a US consumer that is still spending\, but with growing selectivity\, particularly at lower income levels where fuel costs are a proportionally larger burden. \nFor investors in Walmart specifically\, UBS analyst Michael Lasser argued the decline represented “a good opportunity\,” noting the underlying EBITDA met the high end of guidance even excluding the tariff refund\, and that structural advantages in grocery\, e-commerce\, and advertising remain intact. For those watching the broader economy\, Walmart’s result is consistent with a picture of cautious but resilient US consumer spending\, with meaningful divergence between income cohorts. With the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning on 27 August\, this consumer data point will form part of the backdrop against which central bankers assess the economic outlook. \nKey Metrics to Monitor\nComparable store sales (comp sales) in the United States\, excluding fuel\, are the single most closely watched sub-metric. Comp sales measure year-over-year revenue growth at stores open for at least one year\, stripping out the effect of new store openings. A reading of 3% or above would generally be considered solid; a reading below 2% would raise concern. Sam’s Club comparable sales and the membership fee revenue trend will also be relevant signals for the premium consumer segment. \nOperating margin is another key focus. Walmart has been navigating elevated distribution costs\, minimum wage increases\, and tariff-driven supply chain expense. Any improvement in operating margin year-over-year would be a positive signal for future earnings sustainability. E-commerce as a share of total sales continues to grow and will be watched for its impact on profitability\, since online fulfilment remains more expensive per unit than in-store sales for most categories. \nHistorical Results\n\n\n\nQuarter\nRevenue\nAdj. EPS\nUS Comp Sales (ex-fuel)\n\n\n\n\nQ1 FY2027 (May 2026)\n$177.8bn\n$0.66\n+4.1%\n\n\nQ2 FY2027 (Aug 2026)\n$187.9bn\n$0.81\n+2.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Walmart Inc. official earnings releases and investor relations communications. Historical quarterly series for prior FY2026 quarters not fully available in verified sources at time of writing. \nMarket Positioning\nWalmart shares tend to trade with relatively low volatility compared to other large-cap earnings events\, given the company’s defensive positioning and predictable business model. However\, in an environment where consumer spending signals are actively scrutinised\, the Q2 results could have broader market implications. The earnings report will arrive one week before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (August 27-29)\, meaning Walmart’s consumer commentary could shape the market’s economic narrative heading into the most important central banking event of the summer. \nInstitutional investors will also watch for any update to Walmart’s FY2027 full-year guidance. The company’s full-year EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.85 fell below the analyst consensus of $2.92\, creating a potential upside catalyst if Q2 performance enables a guidance raise. A narrowing of the gap between company guidance and consensus\, or an outright upgrade\, would be a meaningful positive signal for Walmart shares and the consumer sector broadly. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Retail Sales August 2026 – Released August 14\, providing the official government retail spending data for July that will form part of the backdrop for Walmart’s Q2 report.\nUS Employment Situation August 2026 – Released August 7\, the labour market data provides context for consumer purchasing power ahead of Walmart’s results.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The August 27-29 gathering will incorporate Walmart’s consumer commentary as part of the broader economic picture discussed by central bankers.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhen does Walmart report Q2 FY2027 earnings?\nWalmart will release its Q2 FY2027 earnings results on Thursday\, August 20\, 2026\, before market open at 7:00 AM CT (8:00 AM ET). The quarterly earnings materials will be available at approximately 6:00 AM CT on the date of release. A live investor conference call will begin at 7:00 AM CT and will be accessible via the Walmart investor relations website at stock.walmart.com. \nWhat fiscal quarter does the August 2026 report cover?\nThe August 20 report covers Walmart’s Q2 FY2027\, which is the three-month period from May 1\, 2026\, to July 31\, 2026. Walmart’s fiscal year runs from February 1 to January 31\, so the August report is the second of the four quarterly reports for Walmart’s FY2027 financial year. \nWhy is Walmart’s earnings report treated as a consumer spending indicator?\nWalmart is the largest retailer in the United States by sales volume and serves customers across all income groups\, including a disproportionately large share of lower- and middle-income households. Because Walmart’s sales capture a broad cross-section of consumer spending on groceries\, general merchandise\, healthcare\, and fuel\, its results provide a real-time signal of US consumer health that complements official government data. The company’s management commentary on customer behaviour and spending patterns is closely analysed by economists and policymakers as a high-frequency consumer barometer.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/wmt-earnings-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T110000
DTSTAMP:20260825T102037Z
CREATED:20260825T102037Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T102037Z
UID:1657-1787652000-1787655600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Consumer Confidence August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Consumer Confidence: Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Consumer Confidence. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nUS Consumer Confidence for August 2026 is expected on Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00am ET (3:00pm London)\, published by The Conference Board. The report covers survey responses gathered during August 2026 and measures how optimistic or pessimistic American households feel about the economy\, jobs and their own finances. Full schedule and background: US Consumer Confidence. \nThe Conference Board has not yet confirmed the exact August 2026 release date at the time of writing. The organisation typically publishes the Consumer Confidence Index on the last Tuesday of every month\, and August 25\, 2026 fits that pattern\, but readers should check the Conference Board’s official calendar closer to the date for confirmation. \nWhat is the Consumer Confidence Index?\nThe Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey of around 3\,000 US households\, run for The Conference Board\, asking people how they view current business and labour market conditions and how they expect things to look six months ahead. The headline number is an index\, not a percentage\, benchmarked to a value of 100 in 1985\, so a reading of 90 means confidence sits below its long-run 1985 baseline rather than meaning “90 out of 100”. \nThe index splits into two parts that economists watch separately. The Present Situation Index reflects how people rate current business conditions and how easy or hard it is to find a job right now. The Expectations Index reflects what households think will happen to their income\, business conditions and the jobs market over the next six months. The Conference Board has said that when the Expectations Index falls below 80\, it has historically signalled a heightened risk of recession. \nMarkets watch this release because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of US economic output. A sharp drop in confidence can be an early warning that households are about to pull back on spending\, which feeds into growth forecasts\, corporate earnings and\, indirectly\, decisions at the Federal Reserve. It is a sentiment survey rather than a hard spending number\, so it is watched alongside actual retail sales and jobs data rather than in isolation. \nWhen is the August Consumer Confidence Index released?\nThe report is scheduled for August 25\, 2026 at 10:00am ET (3:00pm London time)\, released by The Conference Board on its own website and distributed simultaneously through newswires. As noted above\, this date has not been formally confirmed by the publisher and is based on the Conference Board’s usual practice of releasing the index on the last Tuesday of the month\, as it did with the June 30\, 2026 and July 28\, 2026 reports. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economist surveys for this release are typically compiled by data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters in the days immediately before the report\, so a specific number is unlikely to appear until closer to August 25\, 2026. \nThe most recent published reading is 90.8 for July 2026\, down 1.4 points from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June\, according to The Conference Board. That July figure came in below the roughly 92.3 to 92.4 consensus that economists had pencilled in\, according to Advisor Perspectives. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Consumer Confidence Index\n90.8\nNot yet published\n\n\nPresent Situation Index\n114.9\nNot yet published\n\n\nExpectations Index\n74.7\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nCould ease concerns about a consumer-led slowdown and support the view that the labour market is holding up\, though analysts note one month rarely shifts Federal Reserve policy on its own\nHouseholds feel more comfortable about jobs and spending than expected\, which may support retail and travel-related shares\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have limited market impact\, with attention shifting quickly to the Present Situation and Expectations components underneath the headline number\nConfidence is roughly where economists expected\, so no major change to the economic outlook\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould reinforce the “downward sloping trajectory” that Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson has described in recent releases\, and may fuel debate about slowing consumer spending\nHouseholds are feeling more nervous than expected\, often about jobs or prices\, which can be an early sign of weaker spending ahead\n\n\n\nThese are possible reactions described by commentators\, not predictions\, and actual market moves depend on other data released the same week. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nConfidence has been on what Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson called “a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021\,” according to the Conference Board’s July 2026 release. The Present Situation Index fell for a third consecutive month in July 2026\, dropping to its lowest level since February 2021\, while the Expectations Index has stayed below the Conference Board’s recession-warning threshold of 80 since February 2025. \nThe labour market has been a particular focus. The Conference Board’s “labour market differential”\, which tracks the share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful minus those saying jobs are hard to get\, fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in July\, according to the same release. Inflation expectations have eased slightly over recent months\, which analysts have flagged as one of the few more encouraging threads in an otherwise softening survey. \nBecause the Federal Reserve watches household sentiment as one input into its view of consumer spending and the labour market\, a further deterioration in the Expectations Index could add to the case some policymakers make for interest rate cuts\, while a stabilisation could support those who prefer to hold rates steady. The report also matters outside the US: American consumer spending trends affect demand for goods made in Asia and Europe\, and shifts in the dollar tied to Fed rate expectations feed through to the pound and euro. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing rates: a weaker than expected reading can add to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates\, which tends to pull US mortgage rates and other borrowing costs lower over time\, with knock-on effects on global bond yields that also influence UK and European mortgage pricing.\nSavings: if the report feeds expectations of Fed rate cuts\, savers holding cash in US dollar accounts or money market funds could eventually see lower returns on new deposits\, though existing fixed-rate savings are unaffected.\nJobs and wages: the survey’s labour market components are watched by employers and workers alike\, since a sustained drop in how “plentiful” people think jobs are has historically coincided with slower hiring.\nPrices: the inflation expectations captured in the survey matter because if households expect prices to keep rising\, they may demand higher wages or bring forward purchases\, which can itself add to inflation pressure.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: a sharp move in confidence can ripple through US equity markets\, and because pension funds worldwide hold significant US assets\, this can affect pension valuations in the UK and Europe. Shifts in confidence also feed into dollar strength or weakness\, affecting the pound and euro exchange rates for anyone travelling\, importing or exporting.\n\nRelated events\n\nUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment\, a separate monthly US sentiment survey often watched alongside this one for comparison.\nUS non-farm payrolls and jobless claims\, which provide the hard labour market data behind the survey’s sentiment.\nThe next Federal Reserve interest rate decision\, which weighs consumer confidence data alongside inflation and employment figures.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August 2026 Consumer Confidence report released?\nIt is scheduled for 10:00am ET\, which is 3:00pm in London\, on August 25\, 2026\, though the Conference Board had not formally confirmed this date at the time of writing. \nHow should I read the Consumer Confidence Index?\nLook beyond the headline number to the Present Situation and Expectations components\, since the Conference Board and economists often draw different conclusions depending on which part is driving the move. \nHow does this data affect interest rates?\nIt is one of several data points the Federal Reserve considers when assessing the strength of consumer spending and the labour market\, so a run of weak readings can add to the case for lower interest rates\, though it rarely moves policy on its own. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe Conference Board publishes the report directly on its Consumer Confidence topic page\, with the data also distributed via newswire on release day. \nWhen is the next Consumer Confidence report after this one?\nThe Conference Board typically releases the index on the last Tuesday of each month\, so the following report would be expected in late September 2026\, subject to official confirmation.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-consumer-confidence-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T110000
DTSTAMP:20260825T102317Z
CREATED:20260825T102317Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T102317Z
UID:1463-1787652000-1787655600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US New Home Sales August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US New Home Sales: Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US New Home Sales. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nUS New Home Sales for July 2026 is scheduled for release on Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the US Census Bureau\, jointly with the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The report covers new single-family home sales activity during July 2026. Full schedule and background: US New Home Sales dates. \nWhat is New Home Sales?\nNew Home Sales measures the number of newly built single-family houses sold during the month\, expressed as a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A sale is recorded when a buyer signs a contract or makes a deposit\, even before construction is complete\, which makes this one of the more forward-looking gauges of housing demand available to policymakers and investors. \nThe Census Bureau and HUD compile the figures from a sample of building permits and\, in areas without permit systems\, from site visits. Alongside the headline sales rate\, the report publishes the median and average sales price\, the number of homes for sale\, and months’ supply (how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the recent sales pace). \nMarkets watch this release because new construction feeds directly into GDP\, employment in the building trades\, and demand for materials and appliances. It is also highly sensitive to mortgage rates\, since most new-home buyers finance their purchase\, so the series is one of the more direct readings on how borrowing costs are affecting the real economy. \nWhen is the July 2026 New Home Sales report released?\nThe report is due on Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm in London). It is published jointly by the Census Bureau and HUD as part of the Monthly New Residential Sales release\, available on the Census Bureau’s construction statistics pages. New Home Sales for a given month is typically released around the fourth week of the following month\, so a late-August date for July data is in line with the usual schedule. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of the time of writing\, a consensus forecast for July 2026 New Home Sales has not yet been published. Economist surveys for this release\, run by outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg\, are typically published only a few days before the release date\, so a specific number is not yet available. The most recent confirmed data point is the June 2026 report\, published on July 24\, 2026\, which showed new single-family home sales at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 628\,000 units\, up 1.6% from a revised May 2026 estimate of 618\,000\, according to the joint Census Bureau and HUD release. That June reading was 5.6% below the June 2025 rate. Months’ supply of new homes stood at 9.3 months in June\, slightly below May’s 9.4 months. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (June 2026)\nConsensus (July 2026)\n\n\n\n\nNew Home Sales (SAAR)\n628\,000\nNot yet published\n\n\nMonths’ supply\n9.3 months\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nSeen as a sign builders are moving inventory despite higher rates\, which some analysts argue could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly if it coincides with firmer prices\nMore new homes are selling than expected\, which can support construction jobs but may keep prices from falling\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nTypically a limited market reaction\, since the print confirms the recent trend rather than changing it\nThe housing market is behaving broadly as expected\, so mortgage rates and builder plans are unlikely to shift much\n\n\nBelow consensus\nOften read as evidence that high mortgage rates are still weighing on affordability\, which economists surveyed by Reuters have flagged as a persistent drag on housing demand\nFewer buyers are committing to new homes\, which can eventually feed through to weaker construction activity and job losses in the sector\n\n\n\nWhy does this release matter right now?\nNew Home Sales has been volatile through 2026 as buyers weigh elevated mortgage rates against improving builder incentives. Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association have projected 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaging around 6.3% through 2026\, according to reporting cited by industry housing forecasts\, a level that continues to price some buyers out of the market. Builders have responded with rate buydowns and price incentives to keep sales moving\, which is part of why the sales rate has held up even as affordability remains stretched. \nThe Federal Reserve watches new construction data closely because housing is one of the most interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy. A run of weak New Home Sales prints would add to the case\, made by some housing economists\, that the impact of past rate cuts has not yet fully worked through to home construction. A run of strong prints would suggest the sector is stabilising despite still-elevated borrowing costs. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: A weak New Home Sales report can add to expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts\, which over time tends to filter through to mortgage rates in the US and\, indirectly\, to sentiment in the UK and eurozone bond markets that influence fixed-rate mortgage pricing there.\nSavings: Softer housing data that raises the odds of rate cuts can eventually mean lower returns on cash savings accounts and money market funds\, since these tend to track central bank policy.\nJobs and wages: Construction\, real estate and related trades employ millions of workers. A sustained slowdown in new home sales can reduce hiring and overtime in the building trades\, while a pickup can support wage growth in those sectors.\nPrices: Homebuilder price incentives and mortgage buydowns reported alongside sales data give a real-time read on whether housing costs\, a major part of inflation\, are easing or holding firm.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Homebuilder shares and housing-related exchange-traded funds often move on this data. A surprise reading can also move the dollar against the pound and euro if it shifts expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move\, which in turn affects the value of US assets held in pension funds outside America.\n\nRelated events\n\nUS Existing Home Sales\, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors\nUS Housing Starts and Building Permits\, published monthly by the Census Bureau\nFederal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which shape the mortgage rates that drive new home demand\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is US New Home Sales released?\nThe July 2026 report is due at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm in London\, on Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026. \nHow should I read the New Home Sales number?\nFocus on the seasonally-adjusted annual rate and its change from the prior month\, and check the margin of error the Census Bureau publishes\, since month-to-month swings in this survey are often within the statistical noise range. \nDoes New Home Sales affect interest rate decisions?\nYes\, the Federal Reserve tracks housing data as part of its broader assessment of how higher borrowing costs are affecting the economy\, though this single release is unlikely to be decisive on its own. \nWhere is the official New Home Sales release published?\nThe Census Bureau publishes the full release\, including data tables\, on its construction statistics website\, jointly with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. \nWhen is the next New Home Sales report after this one?\nThe following report\, covering August 2026 data\, is typically released around the fourth week of September 2026\, following the Census Bureau’s usual monthly schedule.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-new-home-sales-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T213000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T223000
DTSTAMP:20260825T123446Z
CREATED:20260825T123445Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T123446Z
UID:2157-1787693400-1787697000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Australia CPI August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Australia CPI: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 at 11:30 am AEST (9:30 pm ET\, 2:30 am London). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n3.8% annual CPI (June 2026); trimmed mean 3.6%\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Australia CPI. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nAustralia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2026 is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at 11:30am AEST on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. For traders in New York that falls at 9:30pm ET on Tuesday\, August 25\, and for London it lands at 2:30am on August 26. The report covers price changes across the Australian economy during July 2026. Full schedule and background: Australia CPI. \nWhat is the Australia CPI?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks how much prices for a broad basket of goods and services\, housing\, food\, transport\, healthcare and recreation\, have changed for the average Australian household. The ABS calculates it by pricing thousands of items each month and comparing the total cost with the same basket a year earlier\, producing the headline annual inflation rate. \nSince late 2022 the ABS has published a full monthly CPI indicator rather than relying only on the quarterly series\, so the August release is a genuine month-on-month read on inflation rather than an interim estimate. Alongside the headline figure\, the ABS publishes trimmed mean inflation\, a core measure that strips out the most volatile price movements (such as petrol and fresh food) to show the underlying trend. \nMarkets watch this release closely because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) uses it\, together with the quarterly CPI\, to judge whether inflation is moving back towards its 2 to 3 per cent target band. A surprise in either direction can move the Australian dollar\, government bond yields and expectations for the RBA’s cash rate\, with knock-on effects for currency pairs traded in London and New York and for Asian markets that track the AUD as a regional risk barometer. \nWhen is the July CPI released?\nThe ABS releases the monthly CPI indicator for July 2026 at 11:30am AEST on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. It is published on the ABS website under Consumer Price Index\, Australia\, alongside a media release summarising the headline and trimmed mean figures. The date is confirmed on the ABS release calendar rather than estimated. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of the time of writing\, a consensus forecast for the July 2026 CPI has not yet been published. Economist surveys for Australian monthly CPI readings are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg in the days immediately before release\, so a median forecast is likely to emerge closer to August 26\, 2026. \nThe most recent published reading is the June 2026 monthly CPI indicator\, released by the ABS on July 30\, 2026. Annual headline inflation was 3.8 per cent\, down from 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to May 2026\, according to the ABS media release. Trimmed mean inflation\, the RBA’s preferred core gauge\, held at 3.6 per cent for a second consecutive month. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (June 2026)\nConsensus (July 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, annual\n3.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\nTrimmed mean\, annual\n3.6%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nAnalysts covering Australian inflation generally treat an upside surprise as reducing the chance of near-term RBA rate cuts\, which tends to support the Australian dollar and push bond yields higher\nPrices are rising faster than expected\, which could delay any easing in mortgage rates and keep the cost of living elevated for longer\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nA reading matching forecasts is usually seen as reinforcing the RBA’s existing policy path\, with limited immediate market reaction\nInflation is behaving broadly as expected\, so there is unlikely to be a sudden change in borrowing costs or the dollar\n\n\nBelow consensus\nA downside surprise is typically read as strengthening the case for the RBA to consider cutting its cash rate sooner\, which can weigh on the Australian dollar\nPrice pressures are easing faster than expected\, which could eventually flow through to lower variable mortgage rates\n\n\n\nThese are possible reactions described by market commentators\, not predictions of what will happen on the day. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nAustralian inflation has been on an uneven path through 2026. The monthly indicator moved from 3.7 per cent in the year to February 2026 up to 4.6 per cent in March\, before easing to 4.2 per cent in April\, 4.0 per cent in May and 3.8 per cent in June\, according to successive ABS media releases. The March spike was driven in large part by transport costs\, with fuel prices rising sharply\, while the subsequent easing reflected falling automotive fuel prices as global oil markets stabilised. \nThe RBA has repeatedly said it wants to see inflation\, and in particular trimmed mean inflation\, converge sustainably within its 2 to 3 per cent target band before it is comfortable easing policy further. With trimmed mean inflation stuck at 3.6 per cent for two consecutive months to June 2026\, the July print will be watched for evidence of whether underlying price pressures are genuinely cooling or merely stabilising above target. \nGlobally\, the release sits alongside other major inflation data such as the US CPI report and eurozone HICP figures that central banks in Washington\, Frankfurt and London are also scrutinising\, making it part of a broader picture of whether global disinflation is continuing or stalling. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: Australian homeowners with variable-rate mortgages are directly affected by RBA decisions that lean heavily on CPI data. A hotter-than-expected July reading could push back the timing of any future rate cut\, while a cooler reading could add to the case for one.\nSavings: Term deposit and savings account rates in Australia tend to track the cash rate outlook\, so a shift in inflation expectations can change what banks offer savers within weeks.\nJobs and wages: Persistently high inflation erodes real wage growth even when nominal pay rises\, so the CPI print feeds into wage negotiations and the Fair Work Commission’s annual minimum wage review.\nPrices: The report itself shows households what has been driving the cost of living\, from housing and electricity to food and transport\, useful context for anyone budgeting for the months ahead.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Movements in the Australian dollar following the release can affect returns for international investors holding Australian assets\, and pension funds with Asia-Pacific exposure watch the data for signs of how RBA policy\, and therefore bond yields\, might move. A weaker or stronger AUD also changes the cost of importing goods and travelling for Australians\, and affects exporters trading with the UK\, Europe and Asia.\n\nRelated events\n\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia’s next cash rate decision\, which will weigh the July CPI alongside labour market data\nThe US CPI report\, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics\, which shapes Federal Reserve policy and global rate expectations\nEurozone HICP inflation data\, watched by the European Central Bank for similar signs of disinflation or persistence\n\nRecent Australia CPI readings\n\n\n\nMonth\nAnnual headline CPI\n\n\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n3.7%\n\n\nMarch 2026\n4.6%\n\n\nApril 2026\n4.2%\n\n\nMay 2026\n4.0%\n\n\nJune 2026\n3.8%\n\n\n\nSource: ABS monthly Consumer Price Index media releases for each respective month. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Australia CPI released?\nThe ABS releases the monthly CPI indicator at 11:30am AEST\, which is 9:30pm ET the evening before in New York and 2:30am in London on the same calendar day as the Australian release. \nHow should I read the headline versus trimmed mean figures?\nThe headline CPI shows overall price changes including volatile items like fuel and fresh food\, while the trimmed mean strips out extreme movements to show the underlying inflation trend that the RBA weighs most heavily. \nHow does this data affect RBA interest rate decisions?\nThe RBA uses monthly and quarterly CPI data as key evidence when setting the cash rate\, so a surprise reading can shift market expectations for whether rates will rise\, hold or fall at upcoming meetings. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published directly on the Australian Bureau of Statistics website under Consumer Price Index\, Australia\, alongside a media release summarising the main findings. \nWhen is the next Australia CPI release?\nThe ABS publishes the monthly CPI indicator roughly a month after each reference period\, so the following release covering August 2026 data is expected around late September 2026\, with the exact date confirmed on the ABS release calendar.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/australia-cpi-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104606Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104606Z
UID:1305-1787733000-1787736600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Retail Sales: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet available\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Retail Sales. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Retail SalesNext US Retail Sales →\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index\, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge\, alongside personal income and consumer spending data. The August 26 release falls on the day before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 opens\, making it one of the most closely watched PCE prints of the year: the Fed Chair will be speaking in Wyoming just 24 hours later with fresh inflation data in hand. As of April 2026\, core PCE stood at 3.3% year-on-year\, well above the Fed’s 2% target. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nWednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nData Covered\nJuly 2026 personal income and spending\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\n\n\nPrior Core PCE (YoY)\n3.3% (April 2026)\n\n\nFed Target\n2.0% (headline PCE)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh (amplified by proximity to Jackson Hole)\n\n\n\nWhat is the PCE Price Index?\nThe Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve (the Fed) uses for its official 2% target. Published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis\, PCE tracks price changes across the full range of goods and services consumed by US households\, including expenditures made on their behalf by employers and the government. This broader coverage distinguishes it from the Consumer Price Index (CPI)\, which measures only out-of-pocket consumer spending on a fixed basket of goods. \nPCE also adjusts for substitution effects over time\, reflecting how consumers shift their purchasing behaviour when certain goods become more or less expensive. This makes the PCE index more responsive to actual spending patterns\, and the Fed considers it a more accurate gauge of underlying inflation pressures. Core PCE\, which strips out volatile food and energy prices\, is the figure policymakers monitor most closely when assessing the pace of monetary tightening or easing. \nThe BEA releases the Personal Income and Outlays report monthly\, covering income\, spending\, and the PCE price indices. The August 26\, 2026 report will be the first official data point on July 2026 inflation\, income\, and consumer spending. Consensus forecasts are typically published in the week before the release by major financial data providers and survey organisations. \nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) Release: August 26\, 2026\nThe August 26 release arrives at an unusually significant moment in the economic calendar. It is published just one day before the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium opens on August 27. Fed Chair remarks at Jackson Hole\, traditionally delivered on the Friday morning of the symposium (August 28)\, will incorporate this fresh PCE data. Markets will be watching whether the July PCE print validates or challenges the narrative the Chair is likely to present\, creating a two-day window of elevated sensitivity around both the August 26 data and the August 28 keynote. \nConsensus forecasts for the August 26 release are not yet available; they will be published in the week before the report. The May 2026 and June 2026 PCE readings (released June 25 and July 30 respectively) will form the basis of expectations. On the same day\, the BEA will also publish the US GDP Q2 2026 second estimate\, which updates the advance estimate released on July 30 with revised data. The combination of inflation and growth data in a single morning will require traders to rapidly assess the implications for monetary policy direction. \nThe Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections placed year-end 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7%. Core PCE at 3.3% in April 2026 suggests the Fed is running well above its own forecast\, adding pressure to maintain restrictive policy settings throughout the remainder of the year. \nWhy This PCE Release Matters\nThe August PCE report is the last major inflation data point before the FOMC Rate Decision on September 16\, 2026. Together with the August CPI report (released August 12)\, it will form the core of the inflation evidence available to policymakers when deciding whether to hold\, cut\, or raise rates at September’s meeting. Market expectations for September will shift significantly on the basis of the August 26 PCE print. \nBeyond the immediate policy implications\, the spending component of the report provides critical context on the health of the US consumer. Real personal spending (adjusted for inflation) shows whether households are maintaining their purchasing power or pulling back. Given that core PCE has risen from 2.7% in October 2025 to 3.3% in April 2026\, the question of whether consumers are absorbing or reacting to higher prices has significant implications for Q3 2026 GDP growth. \nThe August release is also watched by global markets because the Jackson Hole symposium the following day draws central bankers from 70 countries. Any surprise in the PCE data will colour the conversations in Wyoming and may be referenced explicitly in speeches from the ECB\, Bank of England\, or Bank of Japan\, whose representatives will also be present. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nCore PCE above 3.5% YoY or above +0.3% MoM – Would indicate further acceleration in underlying inflation. Likely to weigh on equities\, lift Treasury yields\, strengthen the US dollar\, and reduce September rate-cut odds significantly.\nCore PCE steady at 3.2-3.4% YoY – A plateau reading with no further acceleration. Markets may interpret this as “the worst may be over” while acknowledging inflation remains well above target. Limited directional impact on rate expectations.\nCore PCE below 3.0% YoY or below +0.15% MoM – A meaningful downside surprise. Would reignite rate-cut expectations for September and materially shift the tone of the Jackson Hole discussions. Likely to support equities\, lower yields\, and weaken the dollar.\n\nThe personal spending figure will also be scrutinised alongside the inflation data. Strong nominal spending paired with elevated PCE inflation could mean consumers are spending more to buy the same basket of goods\, a sign of declining real purchasing power. Weak nominal spending alongside high PCE would point to demand destruction\, the mechanism through which restrictive policy is supposed to operate. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Month\nData Month\nCore PCE (YoY)\nCore PCE (MoM)\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nApril 2026\n3.3%\n+0.24%\n\n\nApril 2026\nMarch 2026\n3.2%\n+0.30%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nFebruary 2026\n3.0%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nDecember 2025\n3.0%\n+0.40%\n\n\nJan 2026\nNovember 2025\n2.8%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nOctober 2025\n2.7%\nn/a\n\n\n\nThe trend in core PCE has been sharply higher since the low of approximately 2.6% recorded in mid-2025. The 60-basis-point rise in core PCE over the six months from October 2025 to April 2026 represents one of the more persistent re-acceleration episodes since the post-pandemic surge of 2021-2022. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of the August 26 release\, positioning will be shaped by the US CPI Report for August 2026 published on August 12 and the PCE print on July 30. If this PCE sequence shows two consecutive months of moderation\, market participants may begin pricing in a September rate cut more aggressively. Conversely\, back-to-back prints above 3.3% core would likely cement a September hold. \nThe proximity to the Jackson Hole symposium creates unusual two-way risk. If PCE comes in soft on August 26 but the Fed Chair signals a hawkish tone in Wyoming on August 28\, the initial bond rally on the PCE data could rapidly reverse. Traders are likely to keep position sizes smaller than usual ahead of the August 26 report\, reserving capital until after the Jackson Hole keynote the following morning provides fuller policy guidance. \nRelated Events\n\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The three-day symposium opens on August 27\, the day after PCE. The Fed Chair’s keynote on August 28 will be directly informed by this PCE reading.\nUS Gross Domestic Product August 2026 – The Q2 2026 GDP second estimate is released on the same day (August 26)\, offering an updated read on growth to set alongside the inflation data.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The next FOMC meeting on September 16 is the primary policy decision that the August PCE data will influence.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the PCE price index measure?\nPCE measures the change in prices paid for goods and services by US consumers and on their behalf by employers and the government. It is the Federal Reserve’s official inflation target\, with a 2% year-on-year rate the stated goal. The core version excludes food and energy prices and is the measure most closely watched by policymakers. \nWhen is the August 2026 PCE report released?\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report\, which includes PCE data\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. The GDP Q2 second estimate is published at the same time. \nWhy does the August PCE matter more than usual in 2026?\nThe August 26 PCE release falls just one day before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium\, where the Fed Chair will speak publicly about the economic outlook. This creates a unique situation in which the most recent inflation data and a major policy communication event overlap within a 24-hour window\, amplifying the market impact of both.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-personal-income-and-outlays-pce-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104630Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104630Z
UID:1299-1787733000-1787736600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Gross Domestic Product August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Gross Domestic Product: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers Q2 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Gross Domestic Product. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Gross Domestic ProductNext US Gross Domestic Product →\nThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026 on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This revised estimate will incorporate more complete source data than the advance estimate released on July 30\, and is expected to show whether the initial Q2 2026 reading holds up or requires significant adjustment. \n\n  At a Glance \n\nRelease date: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. ET\nPublishing body: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\nCoverage: Q2 2026 (April\, May\, June 2026) — second estimate\nPrevious estimate: Q2 2026 advance estimate (July 30\, 2026)\nMost recent prior quarter: Q1 2026 at 1.6% (second estimate)\nMarket impact: High\n\n\nWhat is GDP and Why Does It Matter?\nGross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic output\, capturing the total value of all goods and services produced within the United States during a given quarter. The BEA publishes GDP in three sequential estimates: the advance (approximately 30 days after the quarter ends)\, the second (60 days after)\, and the third (90 days after). Each successive estimate incorporates more complete source data and is typically closer to the final figure. \nUS GDP is expressed as a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR)\, meaning the quarterly growth rate is extrapolated to represent a full year’s pace. A reading of 2.0% means that if the economy maintained that quarter’s pace for a full year\, output would grow by 2.0%. This convention differs from most other countries\, which report non-annualised quarter-on-quarter growth rates. \nFor financial markets\, GDP data informs Federal Reserve policy\, corporate earnings projections\, and the risk appetite of investors. Strong growth supports the case for holding or raising rates; weak growth increases pressure on the Fed to cut. \nQ2 2026 GDP Second Estimate: August 26\, 2026\nThe August 26 release will revise the Q2 2026 advance estimate that was published on July 30. The second estimate incorporates more complete data on inventories\, business investment\, trade\, and government spending\, which often leads to revisions relative to the advance figure. In Q4 2025\, for example\, the advance estimate of 1.4% was revised to 0.7% in the second estimate\, highlighting the potential for significant changes between releases. \nBy August 26\, markets will have had four weeks to process the advance estimate and will have formed a view on the likely direction of the revision. The advance estimate was accompanied by the PCE deflator for Q2\, which will also be revised in the August release. Any change to the PCE deflator has implications for inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy ahead of the September 16 FOMC meeting. \nWhy This GDP Release Matters\nThe second estimate lands three weeks before the September 16 FOMC meeting\, giving policymakers time to incorporate the revised growth figure into their assessment. If the advance estimate showed a significant acceleration or deceleration in Q2 growth\, the second estimate will either confirm or partially reverse that signal. \nAugust 26 is also the day of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming\, which historically serves as a key venue for Federal Reserve communication. The Jackson Hole symposium and the GDP revision on the same day create an unusually data-dense environment for markets. The Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole could provide guidance that overrides the market reaction to the GDP revision in terms of policy implications. \nCorporate profits data is included with the second GDP estimate\, providing a BEA-level confirmation of the earnings environment that companies reported during Q2 earnings season. Any meaningful divergence between GDP-level corporate profits and S&P 500 reported earnings would attract attention from economists and analysts. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nUpward revision: A revision above the advance estimate would confirm stronger Q2 growth\, supporting risk assets and corporate earnings\, while potentially adding to inflation concerns if accompanied by a higher PCE deflator. The FOMC’s September decision would become less likely to include a cut.\nBroadly unchanged: A second estimate close to the advance figure would confirm the initial reading and reduce volatility around the GDP release itself\, leaving markets to focus on the Jackson Hole commentary for the key policy signal of the day.\nDownward revision: A downward revision of more than 0.5 percentage point would raise questions about the quality of Q2 growth and could increase expectations of a September rate cut. Bonds would rally; the growth-versus-inflation tension would sharpen. A revision below 1.5% annualised would likely be viewed as material weakness.\n\nThe composition of the revision matters as much as the direction. A revision driven by inventories (volatile and less indicative of underlying demand) carries less weight than one driven by changes to consumer spending or business investment. \nHistorical GDP Growth\n\n\n\nQuarter\nGDP Growth (SAAR)\nEstimate Type\n\n\n\n\nQ1 2026\n1.6%\nSecond estimate\n\n\nQ4 2025\n0.5%\nThird estimate\n\n\nQ3 2025\n4.4%\nUpdated estimate\n\n\nQ2 2025\n3.8%\n—\n\n\nFull year 2025\n2.2%\nAnnual\n\n\n\nSource: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Q4 2025 was depressed by the US government shutdown\, estimated to have subtracted approximately 1.0 percentage point from growth. SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate. \nMarket Positioning\nAugust 26 will be dominated by the dual release of the GDP second estimate and the Jackson Hole symposium. Fed Chair communication from Jackson Hole typically carries more long-term policy significance than a GDP revision\, but a surprise in the GDP figure could complicate or amplify the market’s interpretation of the Fed Chair’s remarks. \nBond markets and the US dollar are particularly sensitive on days that combine data releases with Fed commentary. Traders often see elevated volatility across multiple asset classes. The PCE deflator revision embedded in the GDP release will be particularly scrutinised given that it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and will feed directly into the September FOMC decision. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – The July 2026 inflation reading on August 12\, providing the most recent inflation context ahead of the August 26 GDP release.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Fed’s next policy decision on September 16\, for which the Q2 GDP second estimate is a key input alongside the September 4 NFP and September 11 CPI.\nUS Employment Situation (NFP) August 2026 – The July 2026 labour market report on August 7\, completing the macro picture alongside the GDP revision.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nHow does the second GDP estimate differ from the advance estimate?\nThe second estimate incorporates more complete source data than the advance estimate\, including updated figures on inventories\, trade in services\, and construction spending. The revision can be modest or substantial: the Q4 2025 advance estimate was 1.4% but the second estimate revised this to 0.7%. The second estimate also includes the first release of corporate profits data alongside GDP\, which is not available in the advance estimate. \nWhen is the Q2 2026 GDP second estimate released?\nThe Q2 2026 GDP second estimate will be released on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. \nWhat is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and why does it overlap with this GDP release?\nThe Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual gathering of central bank governors\, academics\, and finance ministers hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole\, Wyoming. The Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole is closely watched as a signal of upcoming monetary policy shifts. The overlap of the GDP second estimate on August 26 with the symposium (typically running from late August) creates an unusually data-rich environment. In past years\, Jackson Hole has been used to signal major policy shifts\, including the 2022 “pain” speech that preceded aggressive rate hikes. \nFeatured image: Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-gross-domestic-product-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T130000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104548Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104548Z
UID:1327-1787745600-1787749200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:NVDA Earnings August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next NVDA Quarterly Earnings: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nRevenue ~$91.0bn (company guidance ±2%); analyst EPS consensus $2.07\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nNVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA) will report its Q2 FY2027 earnings results on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, after market close. The report will cover the fiscal quarter ending 27 July 2026\, and will reveal whether the AI chip maker has met or exceeded its own guidance of approximately $91.0 billion (USD) in revenue for the quarter. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nEarnings Date\nWednesday\, August 26\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\nAfter market close\n\n\nFiscal Quarter\nQ2 FY2027 (ended July 27\, 2026)\n\n\nAnalyst EPS Consensus\n$2.07\n\n\nCompany Revenue Guidance\n~$91.0bn (±2%)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium-High\n\n\n\nWhat Is NVIDIA’s Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report?\nNVIDIA Corporation designs and manufactures graphics processing units (GPUs) and system-on-chip units for a wide range of markets\, most notably data centre AI infrastructure\, gaming\, professional visualisation\, and automotive applications. Its fiscal year runs from late January to late January\, with Q2 FY2027 covering the period from late April 2026 to late July 2026. NVIDIA has become one of the most consequential earnings reports in global equity markets as the dominant supplier of AI training and inference chips through its Hopper and Blackwell GPU architectures. \nFollowing a period of extraordinary growth\, NVIDIA reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6 billion (USD) on May 20\, 2026\, a figure 20% above the prior quarter and 85% above the same quarter a year earlier. The data centre segment accounted for the vast majority of revenue\, driven by hyperscaler and enterprise investment in AI infrastructure. NVIDIA guided Q2 FY2027 revenue at approximately $91.0 billion\, plus or minus 2%\, representing another quarter of sequential growth if achieved. \nThe August 26 report will reveal whether NVIDIA has sustained its hypergrowth trajectory into the second fiscal quarter of 2027. With AI capital expenditure from major cloud providers (Microsoft Azure\, Google Cloud\, Amazon Web Services\, and Meta) remaining at elevated levels\, the key question is whether demand visibility has extended further into the fiscal year or whether any signs of digestion\, supply constraints\, or competitive pressure are beginning to emerge. \nQ2 FY2027: What to Expect\nNVIDIA’s own guidance of approximately $91.0 billion in Q2 revenue sets a high bar that\, if met\, would represent an 11.5% sequential increase from Q1’s $81.6 billion and continued annual growth above 80% year-over-year. The analyst EPS consensus of $2.07 reflects expectations for sustained high profitability\, supported by NVIDIA’s pricing power in the AI GPU market and its platform-level software revenues through CUDA and AI Enterprise. \nThe key variable heading into August 26 is whether NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture ramp has proceeded smoothly. The transition from Hopper to Blackwell was the central supply chain story of H1 2026\, and analysts will seek confirmation that Blackwell system yields have improved and shipment velocity is consistent with the demand signals communicated by hyperscalers during their own earnings calls. Any indication of supply-side friction or customer delivery delays would be a negative signal; confirmation that the ramp is on track or accelerating would be a strong positive. \nFor the full FY2027\, analysts have set a consensus revenue estimate of $391.3 billion and an EPS estimate of $9.34. Achieving Q2 guidance and raising Q3 guidance toward or above $100 billion would keep the company on track for the annual consensus estimates and sustain investor confidence in the multi-year AI infrastructure investment cycle. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nRevenue above $93bn (above guidance): A beat above the top of the guidance range ($91.0bn plus 2% = $92.8bn) would be a significant positive surprise. NVIDIA has beaten its own guidance in recent consecutive quarters\, and a further beat would reinforce the pattern that demand exceeds the company’s own initial expectations. Shares are likely to respond with a strong after-hours rally\, and the semiconductor sector broadly would benefit from the read-across.\nRevenue in line (approximately $89bn to $93bn): A reading within the guided range would confirm that NVIDIA’s visibility into demand is accurate. Investor reaction would be influenced primarily by Q3 guidance and management commentary on the longer-term demand outlook. An in-line Q2 with a strong Q3 guide would be well received.\nRevenue below guidance ($89bn or less): A miss below the guided range would be unusual for NVIDIA and would raise immediate questions about whether AI capital expenditure is softening\, supply chain issues have emerged\, or competitive pressure from AMD\, Intel\, or custom silicon from hyperscalers is accelerating. Shares could fall sharply after hours\, and the broader technology sector would face risk-off pressure.\n\nQ3 FY2027 guidance will be the most market-sensitive element of the release. If NVIDIA guides Q3 revenue above $100 billion for the first time\, it would be a significant milestone that would likely dominate market commentary. The gross margin trajectory\, which reflects both product mix (Blackwell versus Hopper) and supply chain cost normalisation\, will also be closely monitored: sustained gross margins above 70% are expected\, and any compression below that level would raise concern about the economics of the Blackwell transition. \nHistorical Results\n\n\n\nQuarter\nRevenue\nYoY Growth\nEPS (Adjusted)\n\n\n\n\nQ1 FY2027 (Apr 2026)\n$81.6bn\n+85%\n–\n\n\nQ2 FY2027 (Aug 2026)\nGuided ~$91.0bn\nTBC\nConsensus $2.07\n\n\n\nSource: NVIDIA Corporation investor relations. Q1 FY2027 results reported May 20\, 2026. FY2027 full-year analyst consensus: revenue $391.3bn\, EPS $9.34 (per S&P Global consensus data). \nMarket Positioning\nNVIDIA earnings have become one of the defining single-stock events of each quarter for global equity markets. The company’s share price commands influence over technology sector indices and AI-related exchange-traded funds. The August 26 after-hours announcement arrives during the week of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 (August 27-29)\, meaning the market will simultaneously be processing NVIDIA’s results and anticipating potential monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole\, creating an unusually significant intersection of corporate and macro catalysts in a single week. \nOptions market implied volatility for NVIDIA typically rises significantly in the two weeks before earnings as traders position for either a rally or a sell-off. Historically\, NVIDIA has moved by an average of 7% to 12% in the session following earnings\, in either direction. The magnitude of any move on August 27 (the day after the release) will reflect both the magnitude of any beat or miss relative to guidance and the forward guidance provided for Q3. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Employment Situation August 2026 – Released August 7\, the jobs report will set the economic backdrop heading into the August earnings season.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – Opening August 27\, one day after NVIDIA’s results\, the Fed symposium will intersect with NVIDIA’s market impact for an unusually eventful trading week.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 – Released August 26\, the same day as NVIDIA’s after-market close results\, providing the Fed’s preferred inflation measure alongside the earnings report.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhen does NVIDIA report Q2 FY2027 earnings?\nNVIDIA will release its Q2 FY2027 earnings results after market close on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. The results and accompanying investor presentation will be published on the NVIDIA investor relations website\, and a conference call for analysts and investors will follow at approximately 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT) on the same day. \nWhat fiscal quarter does the August 2026 report cover?\nThe August 26 report covers NVIDIA’s Q2 FY2027\, which is the fiscal quarter ending 27 July 2026. NVIDIA’s fiscal year ends in late January\, so Q2 FY2027 runs from late April 2026 to late July 2026. \nWhy does NVIDIA’s earnings report move the broader market?\nNVIDIA has become the world’s most valuable semiconductor company and a central node in the global AI infrastructure build-out. Its revenue reflects the capital spending decisions of the largest technology companies in the world\, including Microsoft\, Alphabet\, Amazon\, Meta\, and major sovereign AI projects. When NVIDIA beats expectations\, it signals that AI capital expenditure is accelerating\, which is broadly positive for technology sector earnings\, cloud services companies\, data centre operators\, and energy firms supplying power to AI facilities. A miss would signal the opposite: a slowdown in AI investment with broad sector implications.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/nvda-earnings-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260827T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260827T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T102421Z
CREATED:20260825T102421Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T102421Z
UID:1464-1787819400-1787823000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Initial Jobless Claims: August 27\, 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday\, August 27\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nNext US Initial Jobless Claims →\nThe US Department of Labor publishes its weekly Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report on Thursday\, August 27\, 2026\, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The report covers initial jobless claims for the week ending August 22\, 2026\, one of the most closely watched weekly gauges of the American labour market. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nInitial jobless claims count the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week. Because the data arrives every seven days\, with almost no lag\, economists and Federal Reserve officials treat it as an early warning signal for shifts in hiring and firing long before monthly jobs reports confirm a trend. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the week ending August 22\, 2026 has not yet been published. Forecasts for weekly claims are typically released only a day or two before the report\, once analysts have seen the latest layoff announcements and seasonal adjustment factors. \nThe most recent published reading\, for the week ending August 15\, 2026\, showed initial claims at 206\,000\, a decrease of 6\,000 from the prior week’s revised level of 212\,000\, according to the Department of Labor. The four-week moving average\, which smooths out weekly noise\, stood at 204\,000. Continuing claims\, which count people still receiving benefits after their first week\, rose by 24\,000 to 1\,801\,000 in the most recent week reported\, according to Trading Economics\, a level still below this year’s average. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n206\,000 (week ending Aug 15\, 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\n4-week average\n204\,000\nn/a\n\n\nContinuing claims\n1\,801\,000\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus (once published)\nBond yields could fall; some investors read it as a step toward interest rate cuts\nMore people filed for benefits than expected\, suggesting the labour market is cooling faster than thought\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction; existing Federal Reserve rate expectations largely unchanged\nClaims came in roughly as forecast\, confirming the current\, gradual trend rather than a sudden shift\n\n\nBelow consensus\nYields could rise; markets may push back the timing of expected rate cuts\nFewer people filed for benefits than expected\, a sign that hiring and job security remain firm\n\n\n\nWhy it matters this week\nWeekly claims have held in a fairly narrow\, low range through the summer of 2026\, with the level for the week ending August 15 still well below the readings that historically signal a recession. Federal Reserve officials have pointed to this resilience as one reason they can weigh interest rate decisions carefully rather than reacting to a single data point. A run of higher claims would add to evidence that the labour market is loosening\, a factor the Fed weighs alongside inflation when setting interest rates. \nBecause the US economy remains the largest single driver of global financial conditions\, a marked change in the trend of American jobless claims also feeds into currency and bond markets in the UK\, the eurozone and Asia. A weaker US labour market typically pulls US Treasury yields down\, which can drag global borrowing costs with them and shift the value of the dollar against the pound and the euro. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor anyone with a mortgage\, the path of US jobless claims matters because it feeds into expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions\, and those decisions influence borrowing costs well beyond America. If claims rise steadily and markets expect rate cuts\, mortgage and loan rates can drift lower over time\, though the effect is usually gradual rather than immediate. \nSavers with cash in interest-bearing accounts should watch the same trend in reverse: falling US rates over time tend to filter through to lower returns on savings globally\, as central banks elsewhere often follow the Fed’s direction. For anyone holding shares\, funds or a pension invested in global markets\, a sharp jump in claims can unsettle share prices in the short term\, since investors reassess how healthy company profits and consumer spending are likely to be. \nAnyone earning income in dollars\, or planning to convert pounds or euros into dollars for travel or business\, should also watch this data. A weaker labour market reading can nudge the dollar lower against the pound and euro\, changing the value of money exchanged around that time. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time does the August 27\, 2026 jobless claims report come out?\nThe Department of Labor releases the report at 8:30 am ET\, which is 1:30 pm in London\, on Thursday\, August 27\, 2026. \nWhat counts as a big miss on jobless claims?\nEconomists generally consider a move of 15\,000 to 20\,000 or more away from the recent trend\, or from the four-week moving average\, to be significant\, since weekly claims can be volatile due to seasonal factors and one-off events such as extreme weather. \nWhen is the next jobless claims report after this one?\nThe Department of Labor publishes a new jobless claims report every Thursday\, so the next release follows one week later\, covering the week ending August 29\, 2026. \nWhy do jobless claims matter more some weeks than others?\nClaims attract more attention around Federal Reserve meetings or when other labour market data\, such as the monthly jobs report\, has surprised markets\, since traders look for confirmation or contradiction of the broader trend.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-initial-jobless-claims-august-27-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260828T080000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260828T090000
DTSTAMP:20260826T024137Z
CREATED:20260826T024137Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260826T024137Z
UID:2249-1787904000-1787907600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Germany CPI Flash August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Germany CPI Flash: Friday\, August 28\, 2026 at 2:00 pm CEST (8:00 am ET\, 1:00 pm London). Covers July 2026 data. \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n2.8% year-on-year (July 2026\, flash and confirmed)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nThe Germany CPI Flash is a preliminary estimate of consumer price inflation\, released by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis). The August 28\, 2026 release covers July 2026 data and is expected at 8:00 am ET (2:00 pm CEST local time\, 1:00 pm in London). Full schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash hub. \nWhat is the Germany CPI Flash?\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the average change over time in the prices paid by German households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from groceries and rent to fuel and holidays. The flash estimate is Destatis’s earliest reading\, published roughly two weeks before the confirmed figure\, and is based on price data collected from several federal states before the full national dataset is finalised. \nBecause Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone\, its CPI flash is one of the most closely watched inputs into the eurozone-wide Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)\, which the European Central Bank (ECB) uses to guide interest rate decisions. A faster or slower pace of German inflation can shift expectations for the whole currency bloc\, affecting bond yields\, the euro exchange rate and borrowing costs across the continent. \nMarkets watch both the headline year-on-year rate\, which includes volatile items like energy and food\, and the underlying trend implied by the month-on-month change\, which shows how prices are moving right now rather than compared with a year ago. \nWhen is the July 2026 Germany CPI Flash released?\nDestatis has not yet confirmed the exact release date for this print at the time of writing. Germany’s statistics office typically publishes the flash CPI estimate close to the end of the reference month\, generally in the last week\, so August 28\, 2026 reflects that usual pattern rather than a confirmed calendar slot. The data will appear on the official Destatis release calendar once scheduled\, alongside a short statistical release and\, later\, the fully confirmed report. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast has not yet been published for the July 2026 Germany CPI Flash. Economist forecasts for German inflation are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg surveys closer to the release date\, once more of the month’s price data (fuel costs\, food prices and rent trends) is available. The most recent comparable reading is the prior month’s flash and confirmed figure\, which Destatis and independent trackers put at 2.8% year-on-year for July 2026\, with a monthly rise of 0.8%\, according to preliminary data cited by ACEMAXX Analytics\, an economics commentary account that tracks Destatis releases. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (July 2026 print)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, year-on-year\n2.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, month-on-month\n0.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nEuro could firm and eurozone bond yields could rise\, as traders price a slower pace of ECB rate cuts\nPrices in Germany are rising faster than expected\, which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer across the eurozone\n\n\nIn line with prior trend\nLimited market reaction\, as the print confirms existing expectations for the ECB’s policy path\nInflation is behaving roughly as expected\, so little changes for savers\, borrowers or investors immediately\n\n\nBelow consensus\nEuro could soften and eurozone bond yields could fall\, as markets lean towards further ECB easing\nPrice pressures are cooling faster than thought\, which could eventually feed into lower mortgage and loan rates\n\n\n\nThese are possible market reactions discussed by analysts and traders\, not predictions of how the data will actually come in. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe ECB has spent recent policy meetings weighing whether inflation across the eurozone is settling durably near its 2% target or remains sticky due to services costs\, wages and energy price swings. Germany’s CPI flash\, released ahead of the eurozone-wide HICP flash\, gives an early signal of where that balance stands in the bloc’s biggest economy. A reading materially above or below the prior 2.8% year-on-year pace would feed directly into debate at the next ECB Governing Council meeting about whether borrowing costs should stay on hold\, rise or fall further. \nThe series has hovered close to the ECB’s target range in recent months\, and traders use each new flash print to recalibrate bets on the timing of future rate moves\, which in turn move eurozone government bond yields and the euro’s value against the dollar and pound. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and loans: If German inflation stays elevated\, the ECB is less likely to cut interest rates soon\, which can keep variable mortgage and loan rates across the eurozone higher for longer. A cooler reading raises the chance of cheaper borrowing in future.\nSavings: Higher-than-expected inflation can support higher savings account rates in the eurozone\, since central banks tend to keep policy rates up when prices are rising quickly. A weaker print could see savings rates drift lower over time.\nJobs and wages: Persistent inflation often prompts unions and employers to negotiate higher wage settlements to protect living standards\, though this can also make firms more cautious about hiring if their costs rise.\nPrices: The CPI flash directly reflects what German households are paying for everyday items\, from supermarket shopping to energy bills\, so a rising rate means the cost of living is climbing faster.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Eurozone bond and equity markets\, plus the euro against the dollar and the pound\, can move on this data because it shapes expectations for ECB policy. UK holidaymakers and businesses trading with the eurozone may notice knock-on effects on the euro’s exchange rate\, while pension funds holding eurozone bonds can see valuations shift with rate expectations.\n\nRelated events\n\nThe confirmed Germany CPI report\, published roughly two weeks after this flash estimate\, using the same reference month’s data.\nThe eurozone-wide HICP flash estimate from Eurostat\, which typically follows shortly after Germany’s national release and rolls national figures into a single eurozone reading.\nThe next ECB Governing Council interest rate decision\, where policymakers weigh inflation data including this release when setting the deposit rate.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Germany CPI Flash released?\nThe release is expected at 8:00 am ET\, which is 2:00 pm local time in Germany (CEST) and 1:00 pm in London\, though Destatis has not yet formally confirmed this exact date. \nHow should I read the headline CPI figure?\nThe year-on-year percentage shows how much prices have risen compared with the same month a year earlier\, while the month-on-month figure shows the pace of change over just the last month\, which can be more volatile. \nHow does this data affect ECB interest rates?\nThe ECB tracks eurozone-wide HICP inflation against its 2% target\, and Germany’s CPI flash\, as the largest component of that index\, offers an early signal of whether inflation pressure is building or easing before the ECB’s next policy meeting. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published on the Destatis Release Calendar at destatis.de\, alongside a short accompanying statistical statement explaining the drivers behind the month’s figure. \nWhen is the next Germany CPI release?\nThe confirmed CPI figure for the same reference month typically follows around two weeks after this flash estimate\, with the next month’s flash estimate due roughly a month after that\, again in the last week of the month.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/germany-cpi-flash-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260828T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260828T110000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104634Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104634Z
UID:1328-1787911200-1787914800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Friday\, August 28\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\n46.0\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US University of Michigan Consumer SentimentNext US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment →\nThe University of Michigan will publish the final reading of the Surveys of Consumers for August 2026 on Friday\, August 28\, 2026\, at 10:00 AM ET. The August final reading represents the definitive monthly consumer confidence measure for the period and will revise the preliminary estimate released approximately two weeks earlier\, on August 14. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nFriday\, August 28\, 2026 (Final)\n\n\nRelease Time\n10:00 AM ET\n\n\nPublished By\nUniversity of Michigan\n\n\nReference Month\nAugust 2026 (Final)\n\n\nPrior Reading (May 2026 Final)\n44.8 (record low)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey?\nThe University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers is a monthly survey of approximately 600 US adults that has tracked consumer attitudes since 1946. Published by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan\, the survey measures how Americans feel about their personal financial situations\, buying conditions for major items\, and expectations for the broader economy over the next one and five years. The index is benchmarked to 1966 as 100\, with readings above 80 historically associated with a confident consumer environment and readings below 60 indicating significant pessimism. \nThe survey produces a headline Index of Consumer Sentiment\, as well as sub-indices for current economic conditions and consumer expectations. It also reports one-year and five-to-ten year ahead inflation expectations\, which the Federal Reserve (the Fed) monitors carefully as a gauge of whether price expectations are becoming entrenched. The University of Michigan releases a preliminary estimate mid-month and a final reading on the last Friday of the month\, with the August 28 release representing the final figure for the August 2026 survey period. \nConsumer Sentiment Release: August 28\, 2026\nThe August 28 final reading will provide a definitive picture of consumer confidence for August 2026. The most recent confirmed data point is May 2026 at 44.8\, which represented a record low in the survey’s history. The June and July 2026 final readings (released June 27 and July 31 respectively) will have established the recent trend prior to this August release. By the time August 28 arrives\, the preliminary August reading (released around August 14) will give markets an early indication of whether the record-low sentiment environment has begun to stabilise or deteriorate further. No formal consensus estimate for August 2026 is available at time of writing. \nThe August 28 release arrives on the second day of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026\, which runs from August 27 to 29. This timing creates an unusual coincidence: Federal Reserve Chair and senior central bankers will be actively discussing the economic outlook in Wyoming while the University of Michigan publishes its latest consumer confidence reading in Ann Arbor. A reading that diverges sharply from the July data could influence the tone and content of discussions at Jackson Hole\, even though the data arrives after the symposium has begun. \nWhy This Release Matters\nConsumer sentiment has been one of the most prominent economic weak spots of 2026. The record low of 44.8 in May 2026 reflects the combination of tariff-driven goods price inflation\, elevated energy costs\, geopolitical uncertainty\, and a broader loss of economic confidence that has affected households across the income spectrum. For policymakers\, the critical distinction is between sentiment that is weak because of temporary price shocks (which may self-correct) and sentiment that reflects genuine expectations of prolonged economic deterioration (which is more concerning from a self-fulfilling prophecy perspective). \nThe August 28 data will be read against a backdrop shaped by the summer earnings season. If major retailers (including Walmart\, which reports on August 20) have signalled continued robust consumer spending despite low confidence\, it could suggest that the confidence decline is not translating directly into reduced activity. However\, if spending data and earnings have also been disappointing\, the confluence of low confidence and weak spending would present a more worrying picture for the economic outlook heading into Q4 2026. \nFor the Fed\, consumer inflation expectations embedded in the sentiment survey remain a key signal. If one-year ahead inflation expectations in August remain above 5%\, it will suggest that consumers anticipate continued tariff-driven price increases\, complicating the Fed’s ability to justify rate cuts without appearing to accommodate elevated price expectations. A fall in inflation expectations alongside a potential sentiment recovery would create more room for monetary policy easing. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nSentiment above 50 (recovery into positive territory): A return above 50 would break the below-50 run of spring and early summer 2026 and signal that consumer pessimism may be bottoming. This would be interpreted positively by consumer-facing equities and would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates as a confidence-boosting measure.\nSentiment between 44 and 50 (stabilisation at depressed levels): A broadly unchanged reading\, while still historically very low\, would confirm that confidence has found a floor at current levels. Markets have likely priced in weak confidence\, so stability would be treated as neutral to mildly positive.\nSentiment below 44 (new record low): A further decline would intensify recession concern and increase pressure on the Fed to signal easing. Consumer discretionary equities would face additional selling pressure\, defensive sectors would outperform\, and bond markets would likely rally on increased safe-haven demand.\n\nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nIndex (Final)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nJune 2025\n60.7\n–\n\n\nJuly 2025\n61.7\n–\n\n\nNovember 2025\n51.0\nDeclining trend\n\n\nDecember 2025\n52.9\nSlight recovery\n\n\nApril 2026\n49.8\nBelow 50 threshold\n\n\nMay 2026\n44.8\nRecord low\n\n\n\nSource: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Final monthly readings. Index benchmarked to 1966=100. \nMarket Positioning\nThe August 28 release coincides with the Jackson Hole symposium\, creating heightened market sensitivity to the consumer confidence reading. Fixed income markets will be particularly attentive to the inflation expectations components: any deterioration in expectations at the same time as Fed Chair signals are being parsed from Wyoming would create a complex cross-asset reaction. Options markets may have elevated implied volatility around August 28 due to the Jackson Hole coincidence\, amplifying price moves in either direction. The consumer discretionary sector and large retailers will be most directly sensitive to the headline sentiment figure. \nRelated Events\n\nUS University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment July 2026 – The July 31 final reading establishes the prior monthly trend before this August release.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – Running August 27-29\, the symposium coincides directly with this release\, creating unusual policy and data confluence.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 – Released August 26\, two days before this sentiment reading\, providing the spending and income counterpart to the survey-based confidence data.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index?\nThe Index of Consumer Sentiment is the headline output from the University of Michigan’s monthly Surveys of Consumers. The index is calculated from five questions covering personal finances (current and expected)\, business conditions (short and long-term)\, and buying conditions for large household durables. It is benchmarked to 1966=100\, with readings above 80 indicating confidence and readings below 60 reflecting notable pessimism. At 44.8 in May 2026\, the index was at a record low\, surpassing the previous lows from 2008-2009 and 2022. \nWhen is the final August 2026 consumer sentiment reading released?\nThe University of Michigan will release the final August 2026 Surveys of Consumers reading on Friday\, August 28\, 2026\, at 10:00 AM ET. The preliminary reading for August 2026 will be published approximately two weeks earlier\, around August 14. The August 28 final reading supersedes the preliminary and is the figure used in official economic analyses. \nHow does consumer sentiment affect Federal Reserve policy?\nThe Fed does not respond mechanically to consumer sentiment surveys\, but the data informs its assessment of household sector health and inflation expectations. Particularly important are the one-year and five-to-ten year ahead inflation expectations sub-components: if consumers expect inflation to remain persistently elevated\, wage demands and pricing decisions may reinforce that expectation\, making it harder for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target. A deterioration in confidence readings alongside elevated inflation expectations would present a difficult trade-off between supporting growth and controlling price pressures.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260830T213000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260830T223000
DTSTAMP:20260902T123616Z
CREATED:20260826T024323Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T123616Z
UID:2251-1788125400-1788129000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:China Official PMI August 2026
DESCRIPTION:China Official PMI: Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (vs 49.6 consensus\, prior 49.2); Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (vs prior 49.0) (Monday\, August 31\, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET\, 2:30 am London)). \n\nActual\nManufacturing PMI 49.8 (vs 49.6 consensus\, prior 49.2); Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (vs prior 49.0)\n\nFull schedule and background: China Official PMI. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nChina’s official Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August 2026\, beating the 49.6 consensus from a Reuters poll and up from July’s 49.2\, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI held steady at 49.0. \nChina’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August 2026 is due for release on Monday\, August 31\, 2026 at 9:30 am China Standard Time\, which is 9:30 pm ET on Sunday\, August 30 in the United States and 2:30 am on August 31 in London. The data is compiled and published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and covers manufacturing and non-manufacturing (services and construction) activity during August 2026. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI. \nWhat is the China Official PMI?\nThe Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey-based gauge of business conditions. Each month\, NBS asks purchasing managers at a large panel of Chinese companies whether output\, new orders\, employment\, supplier delivery times and inventories rose\, fell or stayed the same compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into a single index. A reading above 50 signals expansion versus the prior month\, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. \nNBS publishes two separate headline indices: the Manufacturing PMI\, which tracks factory activity\, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI\, which covers services and construction. A composite output index blends both. Because China is the world’s largest exporter and a major buyer of industrial commodities\, its PMI is watched closely by traders in metals\, energy and currency markets\, as well as by companies that supply or buy from Chinese factories. \nThe survey is one of the earliest hard signals each month on how China’s economy is performing\, arriving before trade\, retail sales or investment data. Central banks\, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank\, monitor it as an early read on global demand\, given how much of world trade flows through China. \nWhen is the August PMI released?\nNBS is scheduled to release the August 2026 PMI on Monday\, August 31\, 2026 at 9:30 am local time in Beijing\, which corresponds to 9:30 pm ET (Sunday) and 2:30 am London time (Monday). The release is published on the NBS website and typically appears within seconds via wire services such as Reuters and Bloomberg\, given the market sensitivity of the number. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economists typically submit forecasts to Reuters and Bloomberg surveys in the days immediately before the release\, so a median estimate should appear closer to August 31\, 2026. \nThe most recent published figures are for July 2026. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June\, missing the median forecast of 50.0 in a Reuters poll of economists\, according to CNBC. The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June\, according to FocusEconomics. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nManufacturing PMI\n49.2\nNot yet published\n\n\nNon-Manufacturing PMI\n49.0\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus (or a return above 50)\nRead as a sign that stimulus measures and export demand are stabilising activity\, which could support the Chinese yuan and Asian equities and ease pressure on commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar\nFactories and service firms report more new orders than the month before\, suggesting the economy is regaining momentum\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have a muted market reaction\, since the outcome would confirm existing expectations of a soft but not deteriorating economy\nBusiness conditions are roughly unchanged from expectations\, with no fresh surprise for policymakers or investors\n\n\nBelow consensus (further into contraction)\nCould add to expectations that Beijing will need further monetary or fiscal support\, a scenario analysts have flagged after the July slump\, and may weigh on commodity prices and risk sentiment in Asian and European markets\nFewer new orders and weaker output suggest the slowdown seen in July has deepened\n\n\n\nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe July 2026 data marked a sharp reversal\, with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices falling back below the 50 threshold after several months near or above it. CNBC reported that the manufacturing miss was linked to a “demand slump” and disruption from typhoons affecting production and logistics. The Shanghai Metals Market noted the composite PMI output index fell to 49.3 in July from 50.6 in June\, describing an overall slowdown in business activity across sectors. \nBecause the slide followed months of relative stability\, the August print is being watched to see whether July was a temporary weather-driven dip or the start of a more sustained downturn. A weak reading would likely sharpen calls\, already voiced after the July data\, for additional stimulus from Beijing\, while a rebound would ease concerns about a broader loss of momentum in the world’s second-largest economy. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: Weak Chinese data can lower expectations for global growth and inflation\, which sometimes pulls down government bond yields worldwide\, indirectly affecting mortgage pricing in the UK\, Europe and the US.\nSavings: If the data feeds into expectations of slower global growth\, central banks may lean towards holding or cutting interest rates\, which can mean lower returns on cash savings over time.\nJobs and wages: Companies that export machinery\, commodities or components to China\, from German carmakers to Australian miners\, can see demand shift with these figures\, which over time can affect hiring and wage growth in those sectors.\nPrices: Weaker Chinese factory activity can reduce demand for industrial commodities such as copper and oil\, which sometimes feeds through to lower prices at the pump or for raw materials used in manufactured goods.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Chinese PMI surprises can move Asian and commodity-linked stock markets\, the Australian and New Zealand dollars\, and the offshore yuan\, all of which can affect pension funds and investment portfolios with exposure to Asia or emerging markets.\n\nRelated events\n\nCaixin China Manufacturing PMI\, a separate private-sector survey focused more on smaller\, export-oriented firms\, usually released a day or two after the official figures.\nChina trade data (exports and imports)\, typically published in the second week of the following month.\nUS ISM Manufacturing PMI\, released on the first business day of the month\, often close to the China PMI release date.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the China Official PMI released?\nThe August 2026 release is due at 9:30 am China Standard Time on August 31\, 2026\, which is 9:30 pm ET the previous evening and 2:30 am in London. \nHow should I read the PMI number?\nA reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding compared with the previous month\, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The distance from 50 reflects the strength of the change\, not an absolute growth rate. \nDoes the China PMI affect UK or US interest rates?\nNot directly\, since it is a Chinese domestic data release\, but it feeds into the global growth outlook that the Bank of England\, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank weigh when setting policy\, particularly through its effect on trade\, commodity prices and financial market sentiment. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published on the National Bureau of Statistics of China website\, with the July 2026 release available at stats.gov.cn. \nWhen is the next China Official PMI released?\nNBS typically publishes the PMI on the last calendar day of each month\, so the September 2026 reading is expected around September 30\, 2026. \nResults: China Official PMI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nManufacturing PMI\n49.6 (Reuters poll)\n49.8\n49.2 (July 2026)\n\n\nNon-Manufacturing PMI\nNot separately polled\n49.0\n49.0 (July 2026)\n\n\n\nChina’s official Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August 2026 from 49.2 in July\, beating the 49.6 median forecast from a Reuters poll of economists and coming in above TradingEconomics’ 49.7 consensus. It marked a second consecutive month below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction\, but the improvement was larger than analysts had pencilled in after July’s sharp slump\, according to CNBC. \nThe National Bureau of Statistics said both the production and new orders sub-indexes moved back into expansion\, at 50.4 and 50.6 respectively\, while new export orders rebounded to 50.1 from 49.6 in July. The Non-Manufacturing PMI\, covering services and construction\, held flat at 49.0\, unchanged from July\, with construction activity slipping to 46.9 while services edged sideways at 49.3\, according to Metal.com’s summary of the NBS release. The composite output index\, which blends both surveys\, rose to 49.5 from 49.3 in July\, according to china.org.cn. \nThe result landed closest to the “in line with\, or slightly above\, consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: factory activity stayed in contraction but the pace of deterioration eased\, suggesting July’s slump\, partly blamed on typhoon disruption\, was not the start of a deeper downturn. \nMarket Reaction\nThe reaction across Asian markets was muted rather than sharp. FXStreet reported that the stronger-than-expected manufacturing figure had “little to no impact” on the China-proxy Australian dollar at the time of release\, since the number remained below the 50 expansion line. Mainland Chinese equities were mixed on the day\, with the STAR Composite Index\, which tracks Shanghai’s sci-tech board\, closing 1.90% higher\, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped slightly\, according to a market wrap from Cross Pacific Watchers. \nCommodity markets showed little immediate follow-through\, with copper and iron ore prices broadly steady as traders weighed the improvement in the headline PMI against the fact that both official indices remained in contraction territory. Economists cited in coverage of the release continued to flag the case for further policy support from Beijing\, including expanded interest subsidy programmes and a policy-backed financing facility for local governments\, as the underlying recovery in domestic demand remains fragile. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe August data is a modest positive surprise rather than a turning point\, so the broader picture for savers and investors is largely unchanged from the preview. A manufacturing sector still in contraction\, even if less deeply than in July\, keeps alive the case for further Chinese stimulus\, which could continue to weigh on commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars and keep industrial metals prices contained in the near term. \nFor UK\, European and US households\, the direct effect remains small: mortgage and savings rates are driven mainly by domestic central bank policy\, not Chinese PMI prints. Investors and pension savers with exposure to Asian equities or commodity producers are the group most likely to feel any knock-on effect\, and only if the improvement proves durable in September’s data.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/china-official-pmi-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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