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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261028T094500
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261028T104500
DTSTAMP:20260825T141222Z
CREATED:20260825T141222Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T141222Z
UID:2199-1793180700-1793184300@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Bank of Canada Rate Decision October 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Wednesday\, October 28\, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (1:45 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\nCut 50bp to 3.25% (December 11\, 2024)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous Bank of Canada Rate Decision\nThe Bank of Canada’s Governing Council announces its October 2026 interest rate decision on Wednesday\, October 28\, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (1:45 pm London time). The decision follows a two-day deliberation and is released alongside a policy statement; at select meetings this is accompanied by the quarterly Monetary Policy Report and a press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem. Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada rate decision dates. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council and what does it decide?\nThe Governing Council is the Bank of Canada’s internal decision-making body. It sets the target for the overnight rate\, the interest rate at which major financial institutions lend to one another overnight\, which in turn influences mortgage rates\, savings rates\, business loans and the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar. The Bank’s mandate\, agreed with the federal government\, is to keep inflation near a 2% target within a 1% to 3% control range while supporting maximum sustainable employment. \nUnlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England\, the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes. Decisions are reached by consensus among the Governor\, the Senior Deputy Governor and the Deputy Governors\, and no dissent record is released. The Bank holds eight scheduled rate announcements a year\, roughly every six weeks\, on pre-announced Wednesdays. \nWhen is the October Bank of Canada decision announced?\nThe rate statement is released at 9:45 am ET (1:45 pm London) on October 28\, 2026. Bank of Canada meetings that include a Monetary Policy Report are followed by a press conference\, typically around 10:30 am ET\, where the Governor and Senior Deputy Governor take questions from reporters on the outlook for growth\, inflation and the labour market. The Bank has confirmed its 2026 and 2027 announcement calendar\, as set out in its own schedule of policy interest rate announcements. Because this preview is published well ahead of the meeting\, readers should check the Bank of Canada’s website closer to the date for the confirmed rate entering the decision and for any published Monetary Policy Report projections. \nWhat to expect\nA consensus forecast for the October 28\, 2026 decision has not yet been published. Economist surveys and market pricing for Bank of Canada meetings typically firm up in the one to two weeks before the announcement\, drawing on data such as the Canadian Consumer Price Index\, the Labour Force Survey and the Bank’s own Business Outlook Survey. Readers can expect Reuters and Bloomberg economist polls\, along with overnight index swap pricing\, to sharpen closer to the meeting date. \nWhat is verifiable now is the Bank’s recent rate path through 2024\, when it moved from a restrictive stance toward a more neutral one as inflation eased. The table below\, drawn from the Bank of Canada’s own published key interest rate history\, shows the last confirmed run of decisions available at the time of writing. Decisions made in 2025 and through to October 2026 should be checked directly against the Bank’s published history\, since this preview is written well in advance of the meeting. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\nRate after meeting\n\n\n\n\nJanuary 24\, 2024\nHeld\n5.00%\n\n\nMarch 6\, 2024\nHeld\n5.00%\n\n\nApril 10\, 2024\nHeld\n5.00%\n\n\nJune 5\, 2024\nCut 25bp\n4.75%\n\n\nJuly 24\, 2024\nCut 25bp\n4.50%\n\n\nSeptember 4\, 2024\nCut 25bp\n4.25%\n\n\nOctober 23\, 2024\nCut 50bp\n3.75%\n\n\nDecember 11\, 2024\nCut 50bp\n3.25%\n\n\n\nA basis point (bp) is one hundredth of a percentage point\, so a 25bp move equals 0.25%. The sequence of cuts through 2024 reflected inflation returning toward the Bank’s 2% target after the sharp tightening cycle of 2022 and 2023. \nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold\nRead by traders as the Bank signalling confidence that inflation and growth are broadly on track\, according to typical desk commentary around unchanged decisions\nBorrowing costs stay where they are for now\, and the Bank is likely watching incoming data before its next move\n\n\nCut\nGenerally read as a sign the Bank is more worried about slowing growth or a softening labour market than about inflation\, per standard market reaction patterns to easing moves\nCheaper borrowing over time for mortgages\, car loans and business credit\, though savings rates tend to fall too\n\n\nHike\nWould be read as a signal that inflation risks have resurfaced and the Bank wants to cool demand\, consistent with how markets reacted to the 2022 to 2023 tightening cycle\nHigher borrowing costs but potentially better returns on savings accounts and fixed-income investments\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nAnalysts typically focus on a handful of things in the Bank of Canada’s statement: the language used to describe inflation risks (whether price pressures are described as “easing”\, “persistent” or “broadening”)\, any reference to the labour market and wage growth\, and commentary on the Canadian dollar and export demand\, which is heavily exposed to US trade policy and commodity prices. Because the Governing Council does not publish a vote split\, there is no dissent count to watch in the way there is at the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England; instead\, commentators look for changes in tone between one statement and the next. \nIf the meeting includes a Monetary Policy Report\, watch for updated growth and inflation projections and any commentary on the Bank’s balance sheet\, including its quantitative tightening programme\, which affects how much government debt the Bank is holding and indirectly influences longer-term borrowing costs. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor Canadian mortgage holders\, especially those with variable-rate mortgages or lines of credit\, a cut lowers monthly payments while a hold or hike keeps costs where they are; those coming up for renewal watch these decisions closely because Canadian mortgages typically reset every few years rather than being fixed for the full term as in the United States. Savers holding high-interest savings accounts or GICs (guaranteed investment certificates) generally see lower returns after a cut and better returns after a hold or hike. \nThe decision also matters beyond Canada. A more dovish Bank of Canada\, one leaning toward cuts\, tends to weaken the Canadian dollar against the US dollar\, the pound and the euro\, which affects the cost of cross-border shopping\, travel and imported goods. Because Canada’s economy is closely tied to US demand and commodity prices\, and to a lesser extent to European and Asian trade flows\, shifts in the Bank’s outlook are watched by global fixed-income and currency traders\, not just domestic borrowers. Pension funds and equity investors also track the rate path because lower rates tend to support share prices and bond valuations\, while higher rates can pressure both. \nRelated events\n\nThe previous Bank of Canada rate decision provides the starting point for this meeting’s rate path.\nCanadian Consumer Price Index data released in the weeks before the meeting is one of the key inputs the Governing Council reviews.\nThe Canadian Labour Force Survey\, published monthly by Statistics Canada\, feeds directly into the Bank’s assessment of the labour market and wage pressures.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Bank of Canada decision announced on October 28\, 2026?\nThe statement is released at 9:45 am ET\, which is 1:45 pm London time. \nWill the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in October 2026?\nA consensus forecast has not yet been published this far ahead of the meeting; economist polls and market pricing typically firm up in the days before the announcement. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s current policy rate?\nThe overnight rate stood at 3.25% after the Bank of Canada’s confirmed December 11\, 2024 cut; readers should check the Bank’s own key interest rate history for decisions made since then\, as this preview is written well ahead of the October 2026 meeting. \nWhen is the next Bank of Canada meeting after October 2026?\nThe Bank of Canada publishes its full announcement calendar\, including 2027 dates\, on its own website. \nWhere can I watch the Bank of Canada announcement live?\nThe statement and any press conference are published on the Bank of Canada’s official website and carried live by major Canadian and international broadcasters. \n← Previous Bank of Canada Rate Decision
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-october-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261028T140000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261028T150000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104632Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104632Z
UID:1228-1793196000-1793199600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:FOMC Rate Decision October 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next FOMC Rate Decision: Wednesday\, October 28\, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (6:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: FOMC Rate Decision. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous FOMC Rate DecisionNext FOMC Rate Decision →\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday\, October 28\, 2026\, at 2:00 p.m. EDT\, following a two-day meeting on October 27-28. This is a non-SEP meeting\, with no updated economic projections or dot plot released alongside the decision. The October meeting falls between the September SEP meeting (September 15-16) and the December SEP meeting (December 8-9)\, making it a critical juncture: the October decision will either confirm or depart from the trajectory set at September\, and it shapes market positioning heading into the final FOMC meeting of the year. The federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. \nThe Federal Reserve and the FOMC\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policy body of the Federal Reserve (the Fed)\, the US central bank. It sets the target range for the federal funds rate and meets eight times per year. The October meeting is one of four non-SEP meetings (alongside January\, April\, and July)\, at which only a policy statement and press conference are released. The October 2026 meeting follows three months of data released after the summer\, covering the July\, August\, and September inflation and employment prints\, giving the committee a substantial evidence base for its decision. \nThe October meeting’s proximity to the December SEP meeting makes it significant in the context of signalling. A rate change in October would need to be followed through in December\, or explicitly reversed\, which would be unusual. Conversely\, a hold at October with dovish language effectively sets up December as the likely candidate for any year-end rate adjustment. The committee’s dual mandate requires balancing price stability (2% PCE target) and maximum employment\, and the October decision will reflect how the FOMC has weighed these objectives through the second half of 2026. \nFOMC October Meeting: October 27-28\, 2026\nThe October 27-28 meeting arrives after the September SEP has updated the committee’s public projections and rate path. If September produced a rate cut (taking the funds rate to 3.25%-3.50%)\, October could be either a second cut or a pause to allow the effects of the September action to flow through the economy. If September was another hold\, October faces the same dynamic: cut\, hold\, or acknowledge that December will be the decision point. \nThe data available by late October 2026 will include: Q2 2026 GDP (released late July)\, Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate (released late October)\, July-September CPI and PCE readings\, July-September NFP reports\, and any updated Federal Reserve communications from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (typically held in late August). This is one of the richest data environments of any FOMC meeting\, spanning a full third-quarter picture of the US economy. The decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT on October 28\, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT. \nWhat to Expect\nThe October 2026 outcome depends entirely on the data and policy decisions that will unfold over the preceding months. Key scenarios include: (1) the Fed has already begun cutting at September\, in which case October will determine the pace of the easing cycle; (2) the Fed has held through September\, in which case October becomes a live decision point if inflation has moderated sufficiently; or (3) inflation remains sticky and October is another hold\, with December as the final assessment for 2026. \nThe March 2026 SEP dot plot showed a median expectation of one cut in all of 2026. If that cut has not been delivered by October\, market pressure on the Fed to deliver at least one reduction before year-end will be significant. The Fed’s credibility on its own projections is a factor in how it manages this tension. The FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 and subsequent meetings will collectively define the backdrop for October. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate (Target Range)\nVote\n\n\n\n\nDec 2025\n-25bp\n3.50%-3.75%\n9-3\n\n\nJan 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nMar 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nApr 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\n8-4\n\n\nJun 2026\nTBD (Jun 16-17\, SEP)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nJul 2026\nTBD\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nSep 2026\nTBD (Sep 15-16\, SEP)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nOct 2026\nTBD (Oct 27-28)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\n\nSources: Federal Reserve Board; CNBC. “n/v” = vote not yet verified. “TBD” indicates decisions pending as of June 2026. Rates shown are the federal funds target range. \nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nHold – A hold at October\, if accompanied by clear language signalling a December cut\, would be interpreted as market-neutral with a mildly dovish tilt. Treasuries would hold steady; equities would look ahead to December. A hold with no clear December guidance would be disappointing for rate-cut expecters and could push yields modestly higher.\nCut (25bp) – A cut in October would confirm that the easing cycle has resumed. This is positive for equities and bonds\, reduces the dollar\, and validates the market’s expectation that the Fed is prioritising growth support over residual inflation risks. A 25bp cut here\, followed by a potential hold in December\, would represent the “one cut in 2026” outcome from the March dot plot.\nHike – Not the base case; would require significantly worse-than-expected inflation data and would be strongly negative for equities and supportive of the dollar and bond yields.\n\nPress Conference and Forward Guidance\nWithout a dot plot\, the October press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT carries extra weight in shaping year-end rate expectations. Powell will need to either signal what the committee sees as the appropriate December outcome or maintain genuine uncertainty that keeps market pricing fluid. Given that October is three weeks before the US presidential election cycle’s post-election period (depending on the electoral calendar)\, the Fed will be particularly careful to emphasise its political independence and data-dependent decision-making process. \nForward guidance language in the October statement will be compared line-by-line against the September statement. Any new language acknowledging that “the committee has made further progress toward its inflation objective” (dovish) or that “uncertainty around the inflation outlook remains elevated” (hawkish) will be immediately parsed by market participants as a signal for December. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June SEP establishes the 2026 dot plot trajectory that October’s decision will need to conform to or deviate from.\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) June 2026 – Labour market strength or weakness through July-September is a key input for the October decision.\nUS CPI Report June 2026 – Inflation data from June through September provides the definitive picture of whether the Fed has scope to ease at October.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhy does the October FOMC meeting matter despite having no dot plot?\nNon-SEP meetings like October matter because any rate change decided there takes immediate effect on financial markets and lending rates. They are also important as signals of the committee’s assessment between the guidance-setting SEP meetings. An October rate change would confirm that the Fed has moved ahead of its December projection update\, signalling either urgency in easing or an unexpected shift in the data. \nWhen will the FOMC October 2026 decision be announced?\nThe FOMC will release its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday\, October 28\, 2026. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will begin at 2:30 p.m. EDT. No Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot will be published at this meeting. \nHow close is the October 2026 meeting to the US election?\nThe Federal Reserve operates independently of the political calendar and explicitly avoids scheduling rate decisions around elections. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting is timed according to the Fed’s fixed annual schedule. The Fed has a longstanding policy of emphasising its political independence\, and Chair Powell has consistently stated that rate decisions are based solely on economic data\, not on political considerations.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-october-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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