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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T140000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T150000
DTSTAMP:20260916T182532Z
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LAST-MODIFIED:20260916T182532Z
UID:1224-1789567200-1789570800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:FOMC Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:FOMC Rate Decision: Raised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% (first hike in three years) (Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nMarket-implied odds of a 25bp hike\, not a cut\, have risen sharply and stood at around 83-85% as of mid-September 2026\, according to CME FedWatch-based trackers\nActual\nRaised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% (first hike in three years)\n\nFull schedule and background: FOMC Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 16\, 2026 \n\nThe Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16\, 2026\, its first rate increase in three years and a move widely anticipated after market-implied odds of a hike had climbed to around 83-85% beforehand. \nMarket pricing for the September 16\, 2026 FOMC decision has shifted unusually\, with traders now leaning towards a rate rise rather than a cut. According to Yahoo Finance\, odds of a 25 basis point hike tracked by the CME FedWatch tool reached nearly 56% after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh\, and a separate tracker at growbeansprout.com put hike odds at 85.5% by September 12\, 2026. Centralbank.watch similarly showed 83% odds of a hike. This follows a period of swinging expectations\, with emergencyfundcalculator.com noting odds moved from roughly 62% in early August to 30-40% after a weak jobs report. A surprise would be a hold or a cut against this hawkish market positioning. \n← Previous FOMC Rate DecisionNext FOMC Rate Decision →\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 2:00 p.m. EDT\, following a two-day meeting on September 15-16. This is a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting\, meaning the FOMC will simultaneously release updated quarterly economic forecasts and the “dot plot” of individual member rate expectations. The September meeting is historically one of the most anticipated of the year\, as it falls midway through the third quarter and provides the first full picture of how the Fed has revised its outlook for growth\, inflation\, and the rate path heading into year-end. The federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%\, held through multiple meetings in 2026 as the FOMC navigates elevated inflation and a resilient labour market. \nThe Federal Reserve and the FOMC\nThe Federal Open Market Committee is the monetary policy-setting body of the Federal Reserve (the Fed). It meets eight times per year\, with four of those meetings producing a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot: March\, June\, September\, and December. The September meeting is a pivotal one in the annual calendar. It comes after the summer data flow\, covering Q2 GDP and July-August inflation and employment readings\, and it sets up the final two meetings of the year (October and December). It is at September meetings that the Fed has historically made some of its most significant policy pivots\, as the committee can draw on a full half-year of data to assess whether the pace of disinflation or growth slowdown warrants action. \nThe FOMC’s dual mandate is maximum employment and price stability. The Fed targets headline PCE inflation at 2% over the longer run\, and the September SEP will include updated projections for PCE and core PCE inflation\, real GDP growth\, unemployment\, and the federal funds rate path. These projections are the closest thing the Fed publishes to a formal policy commitment\, though they are not binding and can be revised at subsequent meetings. \nFOMC September Meeting: September 15-16\, 2026\nThe September 2026 meeting is one of the most consequential of the year. By September\, the committee will have data through August 2026 for all major indicators: CPI\, PCE\, NFP\, retail sales\, and GDP (including the Q2 2026 advance estimate due in late July). This rich data set will allow the FOMC to make an informed decision about whether the inflation trajectory and economic growth have evolved sufficiently to justify either a rate cut or a continued hold. \nThe March 2026 SEP\, the most recent available at the time of writing\, indicated just one rate cut expected in all of 2026. If the June and September SEPs maintain or shift this projection\, markets will adjust their rate expectations accordingly. A September SEP that shows two cuts now expected in 2026 (implying one at either September or a later meeting) would be interpreted as a dovish shift\, likely boosting equities and Treasuries. A SEP with zero expected cuts in 2026 would be hawkish and push yields higher. The decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT\, with Fed Chair Powell’s press conference beginning at 2:30 p.m. EDT. \nWhat to Expect\nWhether the FOMC cuts\, holds\, or hikes at September 2026 depends on a data flow that has not yet occurred. The key variables are the trajectory of core PCE inflation\, the strength of the labour market\, and GDP growth in Q2 2026. If core PCE has moderated towards 2.2-2.3% by September\, and NFP has shown a clear cooling trend\, the September meeting becomes a live candidate for the first rate cut since December 2025. If core PCE remains above 2.5% and the labour market stays tight\, another hold is the base case. \nGeopolitical factors\, particularly the Middle East energy price shock of 2026\, will have had time to either recede or intensify by September. The Fed’s ability to look through temporary energy-driven inflation (while cutting on the basis of contained core inflation) depends on inflation expectations remaining anchored\, which the FOMC monitors through breakeven inflation rates and consumer/business surveys. The FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 on June 17 and the July 28-29 meeting will both set important precedents for how September is interpreted. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate (Target Range)\nVote\n\n\n\n\nSep 2025\n-25bp\n4.00%-4.25%\nn/v\n\n\nNov 2025\n-25bp\n3.75%-4.00%\nn/v\n\n\nDec 2025\n-25bp\n3.50%-3.75%\n9-3\n\n\nJan 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nMar 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nApr 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\n8-4\n\n\nJun 2026\nTBD (Jun 16-17\, SEP)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nJul 2026\nTBD (Jul 28-29)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\n\nSources: Federal Reserve Board; CNBC; J.P. Morgan. “n/v” = vote not yet verified. All rates are the federal funds target range. SEP = Summary of Economic Projections meeting. \nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nHold with dovish dot plot – A hold at 3.50%-3.75% accompanied by a dot plot shifting to show two cuts in 2026 (implying a December cut) would be interpreted as a near-cut signal. Treasury yields would fall\, equities would rally\, and the dollar would soften. This is the scenario that would most encourage risk-taking ahead of Q4 2026.\nCut (25bp) – A cut to 3.25%-3.50% would confirm the start of a new easing cycle. The market reaction would be strongly positive for equities and bonds\, particularly if accompanied by a dot plot showing further cuts in 2027. The September 2026 cut would be the most anticipated easing step since the 2025 cycle began.\nHold with hawkish dot plot – A hold accompanied by a dot plot showing zero cuts in 2026 (or even no cuts until 2027) would push yields sharply higher\, pressure equities\, and strengthen the dollar\, indicating the Fed sees inflation as an ongoing constraint on easing.\n\nPress Conference and Forward Guidance\nThe September press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT is one of the most closely watched of the year\, given the simultaneous release of the updated SEP and dot plot. Powell’s characterisation of the inflation trajectory and the committee’s confidence in inflation returning to 2% will set the tone for market expectations through year-end. Language around the “balance of risks” and the committee’s “readiness to adjust” will be parsed for any signal about October or December action. \nThe September 2026 SEP will also update projections through 2028\, providing the most comprehensive picture of where the FOMC expects the federal funds rate to settle in the longer run. Any revision to the “longer-run neutral rate” estimate\, currently around 3%\, would be a significant market event in itself\, as it defines the endpoint of any rate-cutting cycle. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June SEP meeting is the preceding comparable SEP decision and the most recent dot plot ahead of September.\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) June 2026 – Labour market data from June through August feeds into the Fed’s employment assessment at the September meeting.\nUS CPI Report June 2026 – CPI and PCE data through August are the critical inflation inputs for the September rate decision.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhy is the September FOMC meeting particularly important?\nSeptember is a SEP meeting\, meaning it produces updated economic forecasts and a dot plot alongside the rate decision. It falls at a natural midpoint in the second half of the year\, when the Fed has sufficient data on Q2 economic performance to assess whether the full-year policy trajectory needs adjustment. Historically\, September meetings have been associated with significant policy pivots\, including the start of both easing and tightening cycles. \nWhen will the FOMC September 2026 decision be announced?\nThe FOMC will publish its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026. The Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot will be released simultaneously. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. EDT. \nWhat is the FOMC dot plot and why is it released at September meetings?\nThe dot plot is a chart showing each FOMC member’s expectation for the appropriate federal funds rate at year-end for the current year and the next two years\, plus the longer run. It is released at the four SEP meetings each year (March\, June\, September\, December). Markets use the median dot to gauge the committee’s collective rate path\, though individual projections can vary widely and the plot can change significantly between meetings. \nResults: FOMC Rate Decision\, September 16\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nFederal funds target range\n25bp hike priced at 83-85% odds (CME FedWatch-based trackers)\nRaised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%\nHeld at 3.50%-3.75% (July 29\, 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point on September 16\, 2026\, taking the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. According to CNBC\, the move was the Fed’s first rate increase in three years and had been “widely anticipated by Wall Street” going into the decision\, after market-implied odds of a hike climbed to around 83-85% in the days beforehand. \nThe hike follows a run of holds at 3.50%-3.75% stretching back to December 2025\, including a 9-3 vote to keep rates unchanged at the July 28-29\, 2026 meeting\, when three members (Beth Hammack\, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan) had already dissented in favour of raising rates\, according to the official minutes cited by KuCoin. The scenario that materialised was closer to the hawkish end of what was previewed: rather than a hold with a hawkish dot plot\, the committee moved directly to a rate rise\, reflecting concerns that inflation was proving more persistent than the earlier hold-and-wait approach had assumed. Formal vote counts and the updated Summary of Economic Projections from the September meeting were not fully detailed in the earliest wire reports and are expected to be confirmed in the post-meeting minutes. \nMarket Reaction\nBond markets showed a measured response immediately after the announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield eased by almost 5 basis points to around 4.947%\, according to CNBC’s live coverage\, consistent with a decision that had been largely priced in beforehand rather than a surprise shock. \nBecause the hike had been flagged well in advance through Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s public remarks and shifting futures pricing\, the immediate reaction across equities\, the dollar and other asset classes was reported as contained rather than disorderly. Attention now turns to Chair Powell’s press conference commentary and the updated dot plot for signals on whether September marks a one-off adjustment or the start of a longer tightening path into the October and December meetings. \nKey takeaways from the statement\n\nThe Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%\, its first increase since the tightening cycle that predated the 2025 rate cuts.\nThe move had been heavily pre-signalled in market pricing\, with hike odds running at 83-85% ahead of the decision\, according to CME FedWatch-based trackers.\nIt follows a 9-3 vote to hold rates in July 2026\, when three members already dissented in favour of raising rates\, indicating the hike had building support within the Committee.\nFull vote details and the updated Summary of Economic Projections for the September meeting were not confirmed in the earliest reports and are expected in the official statement and minutes.\nMarkets will now focus on Powell’s press conference language and the dot plot for guidance on whether further hikes are likely at the October or December meetings.\n\nWhat this means for your money now\nA rate rise\, rather than the hold or cut many households had expected earlier in the year\, means borrowing costs are set to stay higher for longer. Variable-rate mortgages\, credit cards and other loans tied to the federal funds rate are likely to become more expensive\, while savers holding cash in high-yield accounts or money market funds may see a modest further benefit from higher deposit rates. \nFor investors\, a hike after a long run of holds can unsettle equity valuations\, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors\, while a firmer dollar following the move could make imports cheaper but exports less competitive for US companies\, with knock-on effects for currency markets in the UK\, the eurozone and Asia. Pension savers and anyone with a fixed-rate mortgage due for renewal should watch the coming weeks closely\, as Powell’s press conference and the updated dot plot will shape expectations for the October and December meetings.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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