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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261223T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261223T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104609Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104609Z
UID:1306-1798014600-1798018200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) December 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Retail Sales: Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet available\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Retail Sales. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Retail Sales\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the November 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report on Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index\, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation\, alongside personal income and consumer spending data. The December 23 release falls two days before Christmas\, making it one of the final major US economic data points of 2026. As of April 2026\, core PCE stood at 3.3% year-on-year\, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Consensus forecasts for the December 23 release will be published in the week before the report. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nWednesday\, December 23\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nData Covered\nNovember 2026 personal income and spending\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\n\n\nPrior Core PCE (YoY)\n3.3% (April 2026\, most recent available)\n\n\nFed Target\n2.0% (headline PCE)\n\n\nSame Day Release\nGDP Q3 Third Estimate (December 23)\n\n\n\nWhat is the PCE Price Index?\nThe Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve’s official inflation target measure. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes PCE monthly as part of the Personal Income and Outlays report\, tracking changes in prices paid for goods and services by US households and on their behalf. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI)\, PCE covers a broader range of expenditures and adjusts for shifts in consumer spending patterns over time\, making it a more comprehensive and flexible gauge of inflation. \nCore PCE\, which excludes food and energy\, is the variant the Fed monitors most closely when calibrating monetary policy. The Fed’s stated target is 2% for the headline PCE measure over the longer run. As of April 2026\, core PCE was running at 3.3% year-on-year\, a reading that has risen from 2.7% in October 2025 and represents a significant departure from the Fed’s goal. The trajectory of core PCE over 2026 will be the primary factor in determining when the Federal Reserve begins to ease policy. \nThe December 23 release covers November 2026 data and arrives alongside the BEA’s GDP Q3 third estimate\, providing a comprehensive end-of-year snapshot of US economic performance. Liquidity in financial markets is typically lower in the last week of December as institutional investors reduce exposures before year-end\, which can amplify price moves in response to data surprises. \nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) Release: December 23\, 2026\nThe December 23 release is the penultimate major economic data event of 2026\, preceding only the New Year’s period. Consensus forecasts will not be available until the week before the release; they will reflect the November CPI print published on December 10 as the most recent comparable inflation reading. The US CPI Report December 2026 (December 10) will be widely used by forecasters to calibrate their PCE expectations. \nThe FOMC Rate Decision December 9\, 2026 will already have been announced by the time PCE is released on December 23. This means the December PCE data will not directly affect December’s rate outcome but will carry significant weight for the FOMC’s January 2027 meeting and the Fed’s year-end policy assessment. If the December PCE print shows meaningful progress toward the 2% target\, it could set a positive tone heading into 2027 and increase the odds of rate cuts in the first quarter. \nThe December release is also notable for its holiday-period timing. Thin trading conditions in the final days before Christmas can mean that data surprises produce larger-than-usual market moves. Traders who remain active during this period should expect elevated intraday volatility relative to a typical December session. \nWhy This PCE Release Matters\nThe December 23 PCE report will be the final inflation reading of 2026\, providing the definitive year-end score on how far the Fed has progressed toward its 2% target. If core PCE is still running at 3% or above\, it will confirm that the Fed ended 2026 well above its March projection of 2.7% year-end PCE. Such an outcome would likely push the Fed’s 2% target horizon further into 2027 or 2028\, reinforcing the case for a prolonged period of restrictive policy. \nThe personal spending component of the December report will also be significant. November spending data captures the core of the US holiday shopping season\, a period when consumer outlays typically see seasonally elevated volumes. Strong nominal spending in November\, even if partially offset by higher prices\, is a signal that the US consumer remains resilient. Weak spending would suggest that elevated prices and tight credit conditions are beginning to crimp demand. \nMarket participants will also use the December PCE print to finalise their assessments of full-year 2026 inflation\, income growth\, and real spending trends. These year-end readings inform annual economic reviews\, investment strategy forecasts for 2027\, and the Federal Reserve’s own retrospective assessment of whether its tightening cycle achieved its objectives. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nCore PCE above 3.0% YoY – Would confirm the Fed ended 2026 significantly above its own projections and reinforce expectations for a prolonged restrictive stance into 2027. Likely to weigh on bonds and risk assets in thin year-end markets.\nCore PCE between 2.5% and 3.0% YoY – Progress toward target\, though still above the Fed’s 2% goal. Likely to be received positively by markets as evidence that the tightening cycle is gaining traction. Supports the case for rate cuts in early 2027.\nCore PCE below 2.5% YoY – A significant downside surprise that would substantially shift the rate-cut narrative and could produce a sharp rally in Treasuries and equities\, even in thin holiday-period markets.\n\nThe November personal spending figure will be especially watched as a proxy for holiday retail activity. Economists compare November PCE spending with retail sales data (released earlier in December) to calibrate their estimates of Q4 2026 GDP growth. A divergence between retail sales and PCE spending can signal timing differences in how consumers paid for holiday purchases. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Month\nData Month\nCore PCE (YoY)\nCore PCE (MoM)\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nApril 2026\n3.3%\n+0.24%\n\n\nApril 2026\nMarch 2026\n3.2%\n+0.30%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nFebruary 2026\n3.0%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nDecember 2025\n3.0%\n+0.40%\n\n\nJan 2026\nNovember 2025\n2.8%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nOctober 2025\n2.7%\nn/a\n\n\n\nMarket Positioning\nThe December 23 release lands in a period of traditionally low market liquidity. Many institutional investors are in their year-end wind-down\, and trading desks are often lightly staffed. This means that even a modest data surprise can have an outsized impact on bond and equity prices. Options activity ahead of the December 23 report is typically light\, but any significant deviation from consensus could trigger automated stop-loss orders that amplify the initial move. \nMarket participants will also be watching the November personal income data for signs of real wage growth. Incomes rising faster than inflation would indicate that workers are keeping pace with price increases\, supporting consumer resilience into 2027. Incomes lagging behind PCE inflation would signal that real purchasing power continues to erode\, a pressure point that could eventually weigh on consumer spending and GDP growth. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The December 9 rate decision precedes the PCE release by two weeks; the December PCE data will shape January 2027 FOMC expectations.\nUS CPI Report December 2026 – Released on December 10\, two weeks before PCE; provides the nearest comparable inflation reading for calibrating PCE forecasts.\nUS Employment Situation December 2026 – Released December 4\, providing the November jobs data that completes the picture of labour market and consumer conditions.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the December 23 PCE report cover?\nThe December 23\, 2026 release covers November 2026 personal income\, consumer spending\, and the PCE price index. It is the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final PCE report of 2026\, providing the year-end inflation\, income\, and spending data that markets and policymakers use to assess the Fed’s progress toward its 2% target. \nWhen is the December 2026 PCE report released?\nThe BEA will publish the report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026\, alongside the GDP Q3 2026 third estimate. \nHow does year-end PCE data affect Fed policy in early 2027?\nThe December PCE reading is one of the key inputs the FOMC will review when setting its January 2027 policy stance. A year-end core PCE still well above 2% reinforces the case for holding rates at restrictive levels. Progress toward 2% would support the argument for beginning an easing cycle. The Fed’s first 2027 meeting is scheduled for late January\, giving policymakers roughly four weeks to assess the full suite of year-end data.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-personal-income-and-outlays-pce-december-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261223T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261223T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104633Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104633Z
UID:1312-1798014600-1798018200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Gross Domestic Product December 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Gross Domestic Product: Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers Q3 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet available\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Gross Domestic Product. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Gross Domestic Product\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 2026 Third Estimate on Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The third estimate is the final and most comprehensive revision to Q3 2026 growth\, incorporating the most complete data available. December 23 is two days before Christmas\, making it one of the last major US economic releases of 2026 and a day on which trading liquidity is typically reduced. The report is released alongside the November 2026 Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) report\, providing a final year-end summary of US growth and inflation conditions. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nWednesday\, December 23\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nGDP Estimate\nQ3 2026 Third Estimate (final)\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\n\n\nPrior GDP (Q1 2026)\n+1.6% annualised (second estimate)\n\n\nSame Day Release\nPCE November 2026\n\n\nContext\nTwo days before Christmas; final GDP estimate of 2026\n\n\n\nWhat is the GDP Third Estimate?\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes US Gross Domestic Product in three sequential estimates for each quarter. The advance estimate\, released approximately four weeks after quarter-end\, is based on preliminary data and is subject to revision. The second estimate\, released eight weeks after quarter-end\, incorporates additional data and usually produces modest revisions. The third estimate\, released approximately 12 weeks after quarter-end\, incorporates the most comprehensive source data available and represents the BEA’s final assessment of the quarter’s economic performance before annual benchmark revisions. \nThird estimates rarely produce large revisions relative to the second estimate\, but they include important supplementary detail: a full breakdown of GDP by industry\, revised corporate profits data\, and state-level GDP figures. Corporate profits data\, in particular\, can move equity markets since it provides a top-down view of profitability that companies themselves will not have fully reported through quarterly earnings. \nThe December 23 release also contains full-year 2026 data context and Q3 2026 current account and sector-level accounts\, making it one of the most data-rich GDP publications of the year. For economists building forecasts for 2027\, the December 23 release is a key input for calibrating models of US economic growth and inflation. \nUS GDP Q3 2026 Third Estimate: December 23\, 2026\nThe December 23 third estimate finalises Q3 2026 GDP after two earlier estimates in October and November. The advance estimate (October 29) and second estimate (released by the GDP November 2026 report) will have established the Q3 growth baseline. The December 23 third estimate will confirm or modestly revise that figure. Markets will also receive November 2026 PCE data on the same day\, combining the final Q3 GDP verdict with the latest inflation reading. \nThe December 23 release arrives after the FOMC Rate Decision on December 9\, meaning the final Q3 GDP figure and November PCE will not affect December’s rate outcome but will inform market expectations for January 2027 and the Fed’s first meeting of the new year. If the third estimate reveals a more significant Q3 2026 slowdown than previously estimated alongside still-elevated PCE inflation\, it could set up an awkward policy dynamic for early 2027. \nHoliday-period trading conditions apply on December 23. With Christmas two days away\, institutional trading desks are typically at reduced capacity and market liquidity is lower than normal. This creates conditions where data surprises\, even modest ones\, can produce proportionally larger price moves than the same data would generate in normal market conditions. \nWhy This GDP Release Matters\nThe December 23 third estimate will provide the definitive Q3 2026 GDP figure and serve as one of the final building blocks for year-end economic assessments. With full-year 2026 performance now largely visible\, economists\, strategists\, and central banks will use December 23 data to produce their 2027 outlooks. Any material revision to Q3 GDP\, particularly in the corporate profits component\, can shift equity market valuations and refine GDP growth trajectories for 2027. \nThe corporate profits data included in the third estimate provides a comprehensive view of US business earnings performance in Q3. This figure aggregates domestic and foreign profits\, and any significant change from earlier estimates can move sentiment in the equity market even outside the normal earnings season calendar. A sharp downward revision to Q3 corporate profits would be a bearish signal for equity valuations heading into 2027. \nFor global investors\, the December 23 combination of final Q3 GDP and November PCE provides the last significant US data point before year-end portfolio positions are set. International capital allocation decisions for 2027\, particularly regarding the relative attractiveness of US versus non-US assets\, are often finalised in the last week of December. The December 23 data will be a key input to those decisions. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nQ3 GDP third estimate above +2.0% – Would close 2026 on a relatively positive economic note\, reducing recession fears and supporting equity valuations heading into 2027. Reduces urgency for early rate cuts.\nQ3 GDP third estimate confirmed in +1.0% to +2.0% range – Consistent with the trend from Q1 2026\, suggesting modest but positive growth. The corporate profits decomposition will receive attention as a secondary indicator of Q4 and 2027 trajectories.\nQ3 GDP third estimate below +1.0% – A downward revision to near-stagnant territory would raise the probability of an early 2027 rate cut and could dampen risk sentiment heading into the new year.\n\nThe corporate profits sub-component deserves separate attention. If corporate profits in Q3 2026 contracted year-on-year\, it would be a significant negative signal for equity earnings estimates in 2027\, even if headline GDP growth remained modest. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nQuarter\nReal GDP Growth (Annualised)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nQ1 2026\n+1.6%\nSecond estimate; partial recovery from Q4 slowdown\n\n\nQ4 2025\n+0.5%\nFederal government shutdown subtracted ~1.0pp\n\n\nQ3 2025\n+4.4%\nStrong consumer and business investment\n\n\nQ2 2025\n+3.8%\nRobust domestic demand and services spending\n\n\nFull Year 2025\n+2.1%\nAnnual rate; Q4 shutdown weighed on average\n\n\n\nMarket Positioning\nDecember 23 is one of the lightest trading days of the calendar year. Institutional desks are mostly closed\, and automated trading systems may not fully reflect the typical market reaction to data surprises. Bid-ask spreads in equities\, bonds\, and currencies often widen in the days before Christmas\, which can amplify the price impact of any release. Market participants who remain active in the December 23 morning session should be prepared for elevated volatility relative to the magnitude of any data surprise. \nThe combination of final Q3 GDP and November PCE on December 23 will be the last major input for Q4 2026 GDP tracking estimates\, which economists will finalise in the final week of the year. These Q4 estimates\, combined with the December 23 data\, will form the basis of early 2027 consensus growth forecasts that drive investment strategy and portfolio construction for the new year. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) December 2026 – Released simultaneously on December 23\, providing the November 2026 inflation data alongside the final Q3 GDP figure.\nUS Gross Domestic Product November 2026 – The Q3 second estimate (November 25) is the preceding revision that the December 23 third estimate will update.\nFOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The December 9 rate decision will have already set the year-end policy stance; the December 23 GDP and PCE data will shape January 2027 FOMC expectations.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat additional data does the GDP third estimate include?\nThe third estimate incorporates a full industry-by-industry GDP breakdown\, revised corporate profits data (including domestic and foreign profits)\, state GDP and personal income estimates\, and current account data. It is the most data-rich of the three quarterly GDP publications and provides the final authoritative figure before annual benchmark revisions update the entire historical series. \nWhen is the December 2026 GDP report released?\nThe BEA will publish the Q3 2026 GDP third estimate at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026\, alongside the November 2026 Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) report. \nWhy do markets sometimes react to third GDP estimates even though revisions are usually minor?\nThird estimates include corporate profits data not available in earlier estimates\, which can move equity markets independently of the headline growth figure. Additionally\, if the third estimate makes a larger-than-expected revision to the headline growth rate\, it can shift economists’ full-year GDP assessments and ripple into forward guidance from the Federal Reserve and major investment banks.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-gross-domestic-product-december-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261223T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261223T110000
DTSTAMP:20260902T113136Z
CREATED:20260902T113135Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T113136Z
UID:2497-1798020000-1798023600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US New Home Sales December 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US New Home Sales: Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers November 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n607\,000 SAAR (July 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US New Home Sales. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US New Home Sales\nThe US New Home Sales report for November 2026 is released on Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026\, at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London)\, by the US Census Bureau in cooperation with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The release covers new single-family home sales activity during November 2026. Full schedule and background: US New Home Sales dates. \nWhat is New Home Sales?\nNew Home Sales measures the number of newly built single-family homes sold across the United States in a given month\, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A sale is counted at the point a deposit is taken or a contract is signed\, not when the home is finished or when the buyer moves in. This makes the series one of the earliest signals of housing demand\, well ahead of measures based on completed transactions. \nThe Census Bureau collects the data from a national sample of homebuilders and combines it with building permit records. Alongside the headline sales pace\, the report publishes the median and average sales price\, the number of homes for sale\, and the “months’ supply”\, which shows how long the current stock of unsold new homes would last at the present sales rate. \nMarkets watch the release because new construction feeds directly into gross domestic product and employment in the building trades. It is also highly sensitive to mortgage rates\, since most new home buyers borrow to finance the purchase\, so the series often reacts quickly to changes in Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy expectations. \nWhen is the November New Home Sales report released?\nThe Census Bureau publishes the November 2026 report on Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026\, at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm in London). The data is released as a joint statistical statement on the Census Bureau’s construction statistics website\, alongside detailed tables covering sales\, prices\, inventory and regional breakdowns. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the November 2026 report has not yet been published. Economist surveys from outlets such as Reuters and Trading Economics are typically released in the days immediately before the report\, so a median forecast should appear closer to December 23\, 2026. \nThe most recent verified reading comes from the July 2026 report\, which showed new home sales falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607\,000\, a drop of 10.5% from June’s upwardly revised 678\,000 pace\, missing economists’ expectations of a softer decline to around 620\,000\, according to HousingWire and Trading Economics. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (November 2026)\n\n\n\n\nNew home sales (SAAR)\n607\,000\nNot yet published\n\n\nMonthly change\n-10.5%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as a sign builders are managing to move inventory despite high borrowing costs\, which could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly\nMore new homes are being bought\, suggesting buyers are adjusting to current mortgage rates or builders are offering bigger incentives\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have limited market impact\, treated as confirmation of the existing housing trend\nThe housing market is behaving broadly as expected\, with no fresh signal for interest rate policy\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould add to concerns about housing affordability and reinforce bets on earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts\, weighing on homebuilder shares\nFewer new homes are being sold\, often linked to high mortgage rates or elevated prices pricing out buyers\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities discussed by analysts\, not predictions. Actual market reaction depends on the wider data picture on the day\, including bond yields and other releases. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nNew home sales have been on a choppy downward path through 2026\, with the July reading of 607\,000 marking the slowest pace of the year\, according to RISMedia. Builders have responded to soft demand with price cuts\, mortgage rate buydowns and other incentives\, which the Census Bureau’s data captures through the median sales price series alongside the volume figures. \nThe Federal Reserve tracks housing indicators closely because the sector is one of the most interest-rate sensitive parts of the economy. A run of weak new home sales prints\, combined with elevated months’ supply\, tends to reinforce arguments for lower borrowing costs\, while a rebound can complicate that case. The November report lands just before the December Federal Open Market Committee decision cycle concludes\, so it feeds into the broader read on how the economy is responding to the rate path set earlier in the year. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: Weak new home sales figures can support expectations of lower Federal Reserve rates\, which over time can feed through to mortgage rates in the US\, though the connection is not immediate or guaranteed.\nSavings: If the data pushes bond yields lower\, savings account and money market fund returns in the US could soften slightly as banks adjust rates in response to the wider rate environment.\nJobs and wages: Homebuilding supports a large number of construction\, manufacturing and retail jobs. A sustained slowdown in new home sales can eventually show up in hiring and overtime in these trades.\nPrices: Builder price cuts and incentives\, visible in the median sales price data\, can spill over into the resale market\, affecting what buyers pay for both new and existing homes.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Homebuilder and construction materials shares often move on this release. Outside the US\, a softer US housing market can weigh on the dollar against the pound and euro if it strengthens the case for rate cuts\, which in turn affects returns on US-focused investments and pension holdings for UK and European savers.\n\nRelated events\n\nPrevious month’s report: US New Home Sales November 2026 release\nUS Existing Home Sales\, published separately by the National Association of Realtors\, covers the resale market and typically arrives earlier in the month\nUS Housing Starts and Building Permits\, which give an earlier read on construction activity ahead of eventual sales\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the November New Home Sales report released?\nIt is released at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm in London\, on Wednesday\, December 23\, 2026. \nHow do I read the New Home Sales figure?\nThe headline number is a seasonally adjusted annual rate\, meaning it estimates how many new homes would sell over a full year if the current monthly pace continued. Compare it with the prior month and with the consensus forecast to judge whether housing demand is strengthening or weakening. \nHow does this data affect interest rates?\nThe Federal Reserve considers housing market strength as one input among many when setting interest rates. A weak reading can support the case for rate cuts\, while a strong reading can support holding rates steady\, though no single data point normally moves policy on its own. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe US Census Bureau publishes the full report\, including data tables\, on its construction statistics website\, alongside the Department of Housing and Urban Development. \nWhen is the next New Home Sales report?\nThe December 2026 data is typically published toward the end of January 2027\, following the Census Bureau’s usual monthly schedule for this release. \n← Previous US New Home Sales
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-new-home-sales-december-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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