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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261209T094500
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261209T104500
DTSTAMP:20260826T021909Z
CREATED:20260826T021909Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260826T021909Z
UID:2235-1796809500-1796813100@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Bank of Canada Rate Decision December 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Wednesday\, December 9\, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\nHeld at 2.25% (last confirmed July 15\, 2026; unchanged since October 2025)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous Bank of Canada Rate Decision\nThe Bank of Canada’s Governing Council announces its December policy interest rate decision on December 9\, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time). The rate has been held at 2.25% through every scheduled decision since October 2025\, when policymakers last cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of one percentage point). This is the final rate announcement of 2026\, and it is not accompanied by a quarterly Monetary Policy Report\, which is instead published alongside the January\, April\, July and October decisions. Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada rate decisions. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council and what does it decide?\nThe Governing Council is the Bank of Canada’s senior decision-making body. It sets the target for the overnight rate\, the interest rate at which major financial institutions lend to one another overnight\, which in turn shapes the Bank’s Rate (currently 2.5%) and the deposit rate (currently 2.20%). Changes in the overnight rate feed through to the prime rates set by Canada’s big banks\, which affect variable-rate mortgages\, home equity lines of credit and business loans across the country. \nThe Council is chaired by the Governor\, Tiff Macklem\, and includes the Senior Deputy Governor and several Deputy Governors. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England\, the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes; decisions are presented as a collective judgement of the Governing Council reached by consensus rather than a recorded ballot. \nThe Bank’s mandate\, agreed with the Government of Canada\, is to keep inflation at the 2% target within a control range of 1% to 3%\, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. It normally meets eight times a year\, roughly every six weeks\, to review this mandate against incoming economic data. \nWhen is the December Bank of Canada decision announced?\nThe decision is released in a written statement at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time) on December 9\, 2026. Because this is not one of the four Monetary Policy Report meetings\, there is no accompanying set of new growth and inflation projections and no scheduled press conference in the way there is for January\, April\, July and October decisions; the Bank instead publishes a shorter statement explaining its reasoning. The summary of deliberations\, the closest Canadian equivalent to meeting minutes\, is normally released roughly two weeks after each decision. \nWhat to expect\nAccording to reporting from Canadian Mortgage Trends\, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at every one of its scheduled decisions through July 2026\, having last moved rates in October 2025 with a 25 basis point cut. Coverage from Immigration News Canada in late July 2026 noted a “growing consensus among economists that the Bank’s next move will be a hike rather than a cut”\, with the overnight rate sitting at the bottom of the Bank’s estimated 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range. The September 2 and October 28\, 2026 decisions fall between that reporting and this December meeting; for the most recently confirmed outcome ahead of December\, see the October 2026 Bank of Canada decision page. A consensus forecast specific to the December 9\, 2026 meeting has not yet been published by major polling desks this far in advance. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\nRate after meeting\n\n\n\n\nOctober 2025\nCut\, 25bp\n2.25%\n\n\nDecember 2025\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJanuary 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nApril 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJune 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJuly 2026\nHold (with Monetary Policy Report)\n2.25%\n\n\n\nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold at 2.25%\nLikely read as consistent with the “prolonged hold” path described by analysts cited by nesto.ca; limited immediate reaction in the Canadian dollar or bond yields\nBorrowing costs stay where they are; savers and mortgage holders see no immediate change\n\n\nHike\nWould likely be read as a hawkish shift given commentary from Immigration News Canada pointing to growing hike expectations for 2027; could push the Canadian dollar higher against the US dollar and euro\nLoans\, mortgages and lines of credit become more expensive\, but savings accounts and GICs typically pay more\n\n\nCut\nWould be a surprise against current economist commentary and would likely weaken the Canadian dollar\nCheaper borrowing for mortgages and business loans\, but lower returns on savings\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nBecause December is not a Monetary Policy Report meeting\, the accompanying statement tends to be shorter\, but markets will still parse it closely for forward guidance\, meaning any hint about the likely direction of future decisions. Analysts will be watching for language on inflation’s path back to the 2% target\, references to US trade policy and tariffs given Canada’s reliance on cross-border trade\, and any signal about the neutral rate\, the level at which policy is neither stimulating nor restricting the economy. With the overnight rate sitting at the low end of the Bank’s own estimated 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range\, commentators will be alert to any wording suggesting the next move is more likely to be a hike than a further hold or cut. Because the Bank does not publish a recorded vote\, there is no formal “dissent” to track in the way there is at the Fed or the Bank of England\, though the summary of deliberations released roughly two weeks later can reveal a range of views within the Governing Council. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor Canadian mortgage holders\, a hold means variable rates and lines of credit tied to bank prime rates stay unchanged; a hike would raise monthly payments on variable-rate and soon-to-renew mortgages\, while a cut would lower them. Fixed-rate mortgages react more to bond yields than to the overnight rate itself\, but the Bank’s tone can still move those yields. Savers with high-interest savings accounts or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) would likely see slightly better returns after a hike and slightly worse ones after a cut\, with banks typically adjusting these rates within days to weeks of a Bank of Canada move. \nThe decision also matters beyond Canada. A stronger or weaker Canadian dollar affects the cost of Canadian imports for UK and European buyers and the returns UK and eurozone investors get from Canadian assets when converted back into pounds or euros. Because the Bank of Canada\, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are all navigating similar inflation and growth trade-offs\, this decision is also watched as a read-across for how other central banks might be thinking\, which can move global bond and equity markets\, including pension funds and stock market index trackers held by ordinary savers in the UK and Europe. \nRelated events\n\nPrevious decision: Bank of Canada Rate Decision\, October 2026\nFull schedule: Bank of Canada rate decisions hub\nCanada’s inflation and jobs data released in the weeks before this meeting typically shape the Governing Council’s final judgement\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Bank of Canada’s December 2026 decision announced?\nThe decision is released at 9:45 am ET\, which is 2:45 pm in London\, on December 9\, 2026. \nWill the Bank of Canada cut rates in December 2026?\nNo one can say in advance; the Bank had held its rate at 2.25% throughout 2026 up to July\, and some economists cited by Immigration News Canada expected the next move to be a hike rather than a cut\, but this is a possibility\, not a certainty. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s current policy rate?\nThe target for the overnight rate had been held at 2.25% since October 2025\, according to the Bank of Canada’s own press releases\, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. \nWhen is the next Bank of Canada rate decision after December 2026?\nThe Bank’s 2027 schedule\, published in July 2026\, sets the first 2027 decision for January 27\, 2027. \nWhere can I watch the Bank of Canada announcement?\nThe Bank of Canada publishes its statements directly on bankofcanada.ca\, and major financial news outlets typically carry the release live at 9:45 am ET. \n← Previous Bank of Canada Rate Decision
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-december-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261209T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261209T110000
DTSTAMP:20260902T103104Z
CREATED:20260902T103104Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T103104Z
UID:2467-1796810400-1796814000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Existing Home Sales December 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday\, December 9\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers November 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nA consensus forecast has not yet been published\nPrior\nNot yet confirmed from the official NAR release at time of writing\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Existing Home Sales. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Existing Home Sales\nThe US Existing Home Sales report for November 2026 data is released on Wednesday\, December 9\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The report measures the pace at which previously owned homes changed hands during the month\, and it is one of the two main gauges of US housing market activity alongside new home sales. Full schedule and background: US Existing Home Sales. \nWhat is existing home sales?\nExisting home sales tracks the number of previously owned single-family homes\, townhomes\, condominiums and co-ops that closed during the reporting month\, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Because the figure counts closings rather than new contracts\, it reflects buying decisions made roughly one to two months earlier\, when the mortgage rate at the time of the offer was locked in. \nThe NAR compiles the data from a survey of multiple listing services and brokers around the country. Alongside the headline sales pace\, the report includes median sale price\, months of supply\, the share of cash buyers\, and regional breakdowns for the Northeast\, Midwest\, South and West. Because roughly 90% of all US home sales are existing homes rather than new construction\, this release is the primary window into the health of the housing market. \nInvestors and central bankers watch it because housing is highly sensitive to interest rates and because the sector influences consumer spending through wealth effects\, home renovation activity and the pace of household formation. A sustained slowdown in sales can signal that higher mortgage rates are squeezing affordability\, while a pickup can suggest buyers are adjusting to a new rate environment. \nWhen is the November existing home sales report released?\nThe National Association of Realtors publishes the November 2026 existing home sales figures on December 9\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm in London. The release is published on the NAR’s own website and distributed to newswires simultaneously. This date has been confirmed by the NAR’s release calendar and is not an estimate. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAt the time of writing\, a consensus forecast from a major poll such as Reuters or Bloomberg for the November 2026 reading has not yet been published\, and the prior month’s confirmed sales pace has not been verified against the NAR’s own release for this article. Readers should check the NAR’s official release or a live consensus tracker such as Investing.com or Trading Economics closer to the release date for the most current prior figure and survey median\, since these can shift materially as the release date approaches. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nExisting home sales (SAAR)\nTo be confirmed from the October 2026 NAR release\nNot yet published\n\n\nMedian existing home price\nTo be confirmed from the October 2026 NAR release\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nCould be read as a sign the housing market is stabilising or improving despite elevated mortgage rates\, which some analysts suggest may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly\nMore people are successfully buying and selling homes than expected\, which can support related spending on furniture\, renovations and moving services\n\n\nIn line\nLikely to have limited market impact since the figure was already priced in by traders\nThe housing market is behaving broadly as expected\, offering no major surprise to buyers\, sellers or renters\n\n\nBelow consensus\nMay be interpreted as evidence that high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the market\, which some economists argue strengthens the case for future rate cuts\nFewer homes are changing hands than expected\, which can signal that affordability pressures are holding back both buyers and sellers\n\n\n\nThese are possible interpretations discussed by market commentators\, not predictions of how markets will actually move on the day. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nHousing has remained one of the most interest-rate-sensitive parts of the US economy through 2026\, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates staying well above the historic lows seen earlier in the decade. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor housing data closely as part of its broader assessment of financial conditions and the labour market\, since construction\, real estate services and related retail spending make up a meaningful share of US economic activity. A run of weak existing home sales prints earlier in the year has kept the sector under scrutiny\, and any further deterioration or improvement in November’s figures will feed into the debate over the path of interest rates into 2027. \nGlobally\, the release also matters because US mortgage and housing trends often mirror pressures seen in the UK and euro area\, where central banks have likewise grappled with the effect of higher rates on property markets. A weaker-than-expected US reading can reinforce expectations that major central banks\, including the Bank of England and European Central Bank\, may need to stay cautious about how quickly they ease policy. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: A stronger-than-expected sales figure can nudge US Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher if it suggests the economy remains resilient\, while a weak print can support the case for lower rates over time\, indirectly affecting mortgage pricing in the UK and eurozone through global bond market linkages.\nSavings: Changes in the interest rate outlook driven by housing data can influence what savings accounts and fixed-term deposits pay\, since banks price savings products off the same rate expectations that move mortgage costs.\nJobs and wages: A healthy housing market supports employment in real estate\, construction\, home improvement and retail\, so a sustained slowdown in sales can eventually show up in slower job growth in these sectors.\nPrices: Median home price trends reported alongside the sales figure give a read on housing costs\, one of the larger components of household budgets and inflation measures in the US.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Housing-linked stocks such as homebuilders and real estate investment trusts often react directly to the release\, and shifts in US rate expectations can move the dollar against the pound and euro\, affecting the value of overseas investments and pension holdings with US exposure.\n\nRelated events\n\nPrevious release: US Existing Home Sales\, November 2026 data\nUS New Home Sales\, the companion report covering newly built housing\nFederal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which shape mortgage rates and housing demand\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the November existing home sales report released?\nThe National Association of Realtors publishes the data at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm in London\, on December 9\, 2026. \nHow should I read the existing home sales figure?\nLook at the seasonally adjusted annual rate against the prior month and against the consensus forecast\, and check the accompanying median price and months of supply for a fuller picture of market conditions. \nHow does this data affect interest rates?\nThe Federal Reserve considers housing market strength as part of its broader assessment of the economy\, so persistently weak or strong readings can feed into expectations for future rate decisions\, though housing data alone rarely drives policy on its own. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe National Association of Realtors publishes the full report\, including regional breakdowns and price data\, on its own website at the scheduled release time. \nWhen is the next existing home sales report?\nThe NAR typically publishes existing home sales data around the 20th to 25th of the month for two months prior\, though the November data covered here follows an adjusted December publication date; check the NAR calendar for the exact date of the following release. \n← Previous US Existing Home Sales
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-existing-home-sales-december-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261209T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261209T130000
DTSTAMP:20260902T095623Z
CREATED:20260902T095623Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T095623Z
UID:2465-1796817600-1796821200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:ADBE Earnings December 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next ADBE Quarterly Earnings: Wednesday\, December 9\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\nQ3 FY2025: EPS $5.31 vs $5.18 forecast\, revenue $5.99bn vs $5.91bn forecast\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\n← Previous ADBE Quarterly Earnings\nAdobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) is expected to report its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results on December 9\, 2026\, with the earnings call scheduled for approximately 12:00pm ET (5:00pm London). The report will be one of the last major software earnings of the calendar year and will close out Adobe’s fiscal 2026\, giving investors a full-year picture of how the company’s Creative Cloud\, Document Cloud and Digital Experience businesses performed\, particularly the pace at which artificial intelligence features are converting into paid subscriptions. Full schedule and background: Adobe earnings dates. \nAdobe has not yet confirmed this date. The company has historically reported its fiscal fourth-quarter results in mid-December\, so December 9\, 2026 is an estimate based on that pattern rather than a confirmed corporate announcement. \nWhat is Adobe’s Q4 2026 earnings report?\nThis is Adobe’s quarterly results announcement covering its fiscal fourth quarter (roughly September to November 2026) and its full fiscal year 2026. Adobe’s finance team\, led by the chief financial officer\, releases the figures via press release before the market opens\, followed by a live conference call with the chief executive\, chief financial officer and other senior executives who take questions from analysts at major banks and research firms. The release covers total revenue\, earnings per share (EPS)\, performance across Adobe’s three main segments (Digital Media\, Digital Experience and Publishing)\, and guidance for the following fiscal year. \nMarkets pay close attention to this particular release because it is the first full-year read on how Adobe’s generative AI tools\, including Firefly and AI features built into Creative Cloud and Acrobat\, are contributing to subscription growth and average revenue per user\, rather than just being a marketing talking point. \nWhen is Adobe’s earnings report and how to follow it\nAdobe typically issues its results after the US market closes or before it opens\, depending on the quarter\, with the earnings call beginning shortly afterwards. For this event\, the call is pencilled in for 12:00pm ET\, which is 5:00pm in London and later in the evening for continental Europe. Investors in Asia would need to check the announcement the following morning local time. The release and a live audio webcast are normally made available on Adobe’s investor relations website\, with a transcript published within a day or two by financial news outlets. As above\, this date is estimated and should be treated as provisional until Adobe’s investor relations team confirms it\, typically a few weeks beforehand. \nWhat to expect\nBecause this event is more than a year away from today’s date\, no consensus forecast for EPS or revenue has yet been published by analysts. Wall Street estimates for a specific quarter typically firm up only in the weeks before the report\, once analysts have updated their models following the prior quarter’s results and any interim guidance from Adobe. When estimates are published\, they usually appear on financial data platforms and are compiled into consensus figures by services such as LSEG or FactSet\, cited by outlets including Reuters and Bloomberg. \nFor context\, in its fiscal third quarter of 2025\, Adobe reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.31 against an average analyst forecast of $5.18\, with revenue of $5.99 billion versus an expected $5.91 billion\, according to a transcript summary published by Investing.com. Adobe also raised its full-year fiscal 2025 revenue target to between $23.65 billion and $23.70 billion at that time. Analysts watching the December 2026 report are likely to focus on the same themes: growth in Digital Media annualised recurring revenue\, adoption of AI-powered features\, competitive pressure from rivals in generative image and video tools\, and the trajectory of Digital Experience\, Adobe’s marketing software business. \nWhat the outcome could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nBeat\nShares could rise if EPS and revenue exceed the eventual consensus and guidance for fiscal 2027 is upgraded\nAdobe’s AI investments and subscription growth are converting into stronger-than-expected profit\n\n\nIn line\nLimited share price reaction\, with attention shifting to management’s forward commentary on AI monetisation\nAdobe delivered what was already priced in\, so the story becomes what happens next\n\n\nMiss\nShares could fall\, particularly if guidance for the new fiscal year is cut or AI-related spending weighs on margins\nGrowth or profitability came in weaker than analysts hoped\, raising questions about competitive pressure\n\n\n\nWhat It Means for Your Money\nAdobe is a large constituent of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500\, so its shares are held\, often unknowingly\, inside many workplace pensions\, individual savings accounts (ISAs) and index tracker funds used by ordinary savers in the UK\, Europe and further afield. A significant move in Adobe’s share price after this report can nudge the value of technology-focused funds up or down\, though the effect on a diversified pension pot is usually small. For creative professionals and businesses that pay monthly for Adobe’s Creative Cloud or Acrobat subscriptions\, the earnings call sometimes hints at future pricing changes or new AI features bundled into existing plans. The report itself does not move mortgage rates\, savings rates or the value of the pound\, dollar or euro directly\, but it does add to the broader mood around US technology earnings\, which can influence investor sentiment and stock market volatility during December\, a period when many funds are also managing year-end positioning. \nRelated events\n\nAdobe’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings report\, the previous quarterly release from the company\nUS Federal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which shape the broader environment for technology stock valuations\nOther major software earnings reported around the same December window\, including peers in cloud and enterprise software\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nIs the December 9\, 2026 date for Adobe’s earnings confirmed?\nNo\, it is an estimate based on Adobe’s usual pattern of reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results in mid-December. Adobe typically confirms the exact date a few weeks in advance. \nWhat time does Adobe usually hold its earnings call?\nAdobe’s earnings calls are generally scheduled for the early afternoon US Eastern Time\, which falls in the late afternoon or early evening in London. \nWhere can I watch Adobe’s earnings call?\nAdobe normally streams a live audio webcast of the call on its investor relations website\, with a replay and transcript typically available afterwards. \nHas a consensus forecast been published for this report?\nNot yet. A consensus forecast has not yet been published because the event is far in advance; analyst estimates typically firm up closer to the reporting date. \nWhy does Adobe’s earnings report matter to non-US investors?\nAdobe is a widely held stock in global index funds and technology-focused portfolios\, so a large earnings surprise can affect the value of pensions and investment funds held by savers outside the United States. \n← Previous ADBE Quarterly Earnings
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/adbe-earnings-december-2026/
CATEGORIES:Earnings Season
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20261209T140000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20261209T150000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104541Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104541Z
UID:1220-1796824800-1796828400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:FOMC Rate Decision December 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next FOMC Rate Decision: Wednesday\, December 9\, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: FOMC Rate Decision. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous FOMC Rate Decision\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its final interest rate decision of 2026 on Wednesday\, December 9\, 2026\, at 2:00 p.m. EDT\, following a two-day meeting on December 8-9. This is a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting\, at which FOMC members will publish updated quarterly forecasts and the closely watched “dot plot” of individual rate expectations. The December meeting represents the committee’s last opportunity in 2026 to adjust the federal funds rate target\, and markets will focus on both the rate decision itself and the updated economic projections for 2027 and beyond. The federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%\, where it has been held following three rate cuts in the second half of 2025. \nThe Federal Reserve and the FOMC\nThe Federal Open Market Committee is the monetary policy-making body of the Federal Reserve (the Fed)\, the central bank of the United States. The FOMC meets eight times per year in Washington DC\, with each meeting lasting one or two days. The committee consists of 12 voting members: the seven members of the Board of Governors\, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York\, and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents who rotate voting rights annually. \nThe Fed operates under a dual mandate established by Congress: maximum employment and price stability\, with price stability defined as headline PCE inflation of 2% over the longer run. When the FOMC sets the federal funds rate\, it directly influences short-term borrowing costs across the entire US economy\, flowing through to mortgage rates\, corporate borrowing\, consumer credit\, and exchange rates. The December 2026 meeting is particularly significant because it concludes the committee’s work for the year and establishes the rate outlook through its updated SEP and dot plot\, which will guide market expectations into 2027. \nFOMC December Meeting: December 8-9\, 2026\nThe December 2026 meeting is one of four SEP meetings in the year (alongside March\, June\, and September)\, at which FOMC members publish quarterly forecasts for GDP growth\, unemployment\, inflation\, and the federal funds rate. The dot plot\, which shows each member’s year-end rate expectation for the next three years and the longer run\, is the primary tool through which the committee communicates its collective thinking on the rate path. \nThe March 2026 SEP\, the most recent set of projections available at the time of writing\, showed committee members expecting just one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027\, before the federal funds rate converges towards a longer-run neutral rate of approximately 3%. Against this backdrop\, the key question for December 2026 is whether the full-year data has shifted those projections. The combination of elevated headline inflation (driven by energy prices following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East)\, above-trend employment growth in early 2026\, and below-trend GDP growth presents a complex policy environment. The decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT on December 9\, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference beginning at 2:30 p.m. EDT. \nWhat to Expect\nThe most likely outcome at the December 2026 meeting\, based on the FOMC’s stated data-dependent posture and the March 2026 dot plot projections\, is a hold at the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. The Fed has held rates through multiple consecutive meetings in 2026\, citing elevated inflation and a resilient labour market as arguments against premature easing. However\, if core PCE inflation has moderated consistently through the second half of 2026\, and if GDP growth has slowed to a pace that raises concerns about economic momentum\, the December SEP could reveal a shift in committee thinking towards more cuts in 2027. \nGovernor Miran’s dissent at the April 2026 meeting\, calling for a 25-basis-point cut\, represented the dovish extreme of the committee. Meanwhile\, hawkish members dissenting in favour of stronger forward guidance against cuts have pushed the other end. The December meeting will reveal where this internal debate has resolved over the course of 2026. If the committee delivers a cut at any earlier meeting (June\, July\, September\, or October)\, December could either follow with a second cut or revert to a hold. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate (Upper)\nVote\n\n\n\n\nSep 2025\n-25bp\n4.25%\nn/v\n\n\nNov 2025\n-25bp\n4.00%\nn/v\n\n\nDec 2025\n-25bp\n3.75%\n9-3\n\n\nJan 2026\nHold\n3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nMar 2026\nHold\n3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nApr 2026\nHold\n3.75%\n8-4\n\n\nJun 2026\nTBD (Jun 16-17)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nJul 2026\nTBD (Jul 28-29)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\n\nSources: Federal Reserve; CNBC; J.P. Morgan. “n/v” = vote not yet verified from official sources. Upper rate refers to the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Rates shown at 3.75% upper bound reflect the hold from December 2025 onwards. \nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nHold (base case) – Maintaining the 3.50% to 3.75% range would be interpreted as cautious\, data-dependent policy continuation. Markets will focus primarily on the updated dot plot for 2027 expectations. If the dot plot shifts towards more cuts in 2027\, Treasury yields would fall modestly and equities would rally. If the dot plot holds or moves hawkish\, bond yields would remain elevated\, and equities would face pressure heading into year-end.\nCut (25bp) – A December rate cut to 3.25%-3.50% would signal the Fed has gained enough confidence in the inflation outlook to resume easing. This outcome would be positive for equities and bonds\, negative for the dollar\, and would likely be accompanied by a dovish dot plot. The size of the year-end equity rally would depend on whether the cut was already priced in by December.\nHike – A rate increase from the current range would represent a dramatic policy reversal and is not the base case. A hike would be strongly negative for equities\, particularly for the most rate-sensitive sectors (real estate\, utilities\, high-growth technology)\, and would strengthen the dollar while pushing bond yields higher across all maturities.\n\nPress Conference and Forward Guidance\nFed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT on December 9 will be scrutinised for signals about the 2027 rate path. After the dot plot\, Powell’s characterisation of inflation progress and the growth outlook will drive market reaction. Key phrases to watch include whether the Fed describes inflation as “still elevated” versus “making progress toward 2%”\, and whether Powell signals that the committee sees further cuts as appropriate or that it will remain on hold for an extended period. \nThe December SEP will also update projections for PCE inflation\, core PCE\, GDP growth\, and unemployment through 2028. Revisions to these projections\, particularly whether the committee now sees inflation returning to 2% in 2027 or later\, will shape the market’s interpretation of the dot plot and inform investment positioning into the new year. The December meeting traditionally attracts higher media and market attention than non-SEP meetings. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June 16-17 SEP meeting is the next FOMC rate decision after the current date\, providing the first updated dot plot ahead of December.\nUS CPI Report June 2026 – Inflation data from June and subsequent months will be the primary determinant of whether the Fed has scope to cut in December 2026.\nECB Rate Decision June 2026 – The ECB’s June 11 decision illustrates the broader global monetary policy environment against which the Fed’s December decision will be assessed.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the FOMC’s dual mandate?\nThe Federal Open Market Committee operates under a congressional mandate to pursue maximum employment and price stability. In practice\, the Fed targets headline PCE inflation of 2% over the longer run and aims to maintain the unemployment rate near its longer-run neutral level\, which the March 2026 SEP estimated at approximately 4.1%. \nWhen will the FOMC December 2026 decision be announced?\nThe FOMC will release its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday\, December 9\, 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will begin at 2:30 p.m. EDT. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)\, including the dot plot\, will be released simultaneously with the policy statement. \nWhat does the dot plot show?\nThe dot plot is a chart published at each SEP meeting showing each FOMC member’s expectation for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate at year-end for the next three years and in the longer run. It is anonymous and shows the distribution of views across the committee\, not a binding forecast. Markets use the median dot to infer the committee’s collective rate path\, but it can shift significantly between meetings as economic conditions change.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-december-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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