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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260930T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260930T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104610Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104610Z
UID:1301-1790757000-1790760600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Gross Domestic Product September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Gross Domestic Product: Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers Q2 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Gross Domestic Product. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Gross Domestic ProductNext US Gross Domestic Product →\nThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the third and final estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026 on Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This release will incorporate the most complete available data for the April-to-June quarter and will provide the definitive read on Q2 2026 economic growth\, alongside updated corporate profits figures. \n\n  At a Glance \n\nRelease date: Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. ET\nPublishing body: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\nCoverage: Q2 2026 (April\, May\, June 2026) — third and final estimate\nMost recent prior quarters: Q1 2026 at 1.6% (second estimate); Q4 2025 at 0.5% (third estimate)\nMarket impact: High\n\n\nWhat is GDP and Why Does It Matter?\nGross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most comprehensive measure of US economic output\, published quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is released in three successive estimates: the advance (approximately 30 days after the quarter ends)\, the second (60 days after)\, and the third (90 days after). The third estimate represents the definitive quarterly figure and is typically the one incorporated into annual economic revisions. \nThe third estimate is particularly important because it includes the BEA’s most complete dataset\, incorporating comprehensive data on state and local government spending\, healthcare services\, and financial services that are not fully available for the earlier estimates. It also includes comprehensive corporate profits data with industry and sector breakdowns\, providing deep insight into the health of the private sector. \nUS GDP is reported as a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR)\, representing the quarterly growth pace extrapolated to a full year. This convention is used uniquely in the United States; the standard in most other countries is to report quarter-on-quarter non-annualised growth. \nQ2 2026 GDP Third Estimate: September 30\, 2026\nThe September 30 release will provide the final word on Q2 2026 growth\, incorporating a third and final pass over the source data. Historical precedent shows that third estimates can diverge meaningfully from advance readings. For Q4 2025\, the advance estimate of 1.4% was revised to 0.7% in the second estimate and settled at 0.5% in the third\, a reduction of nearly 1 percentage point from the initial reading. \nThe third estimate will also confirm or revise the Q2 personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator\, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Any revision to the PCE deflator could be market-moving given the FOMC met on September 16 and will be incorporating this final data point into its view ahead of the October 28 meeting. \nWhy This GDP Release Matters\nAs the final estimate\, the September 30 GDP release resolves the uncertainty created by the advance and second estimates and provides the definitive Q2 2026 growth figure. Beyond its informational value\, the third estimate tends to generate less market volatility than the advance estimate because much of the data has already been incorporated into market pricing through the prior two releases. \nHowever\, meaningful revisions relative to the second estimate can still move markets. If the third estimate shows Q2 2026 growth was significantly stronger or weaker than previously indicated\, it will update the narrative about the economy’s underlying health and affect expectations for the rest of the year. The FOMC\, having met on September 16\, will also incorporate the final Q2 reading into its economic projections for the October meeting. \nThe comprehensive corporate profits data released with the third estimate allows economists to assess profit margins\, labour cost pressures\, and the health of the business sector with greater precision than the preliminary figures published with the advance and second estimates. These data points inform analyst forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2026 corporate earnings. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nUpward revision from second estimate: A final reading above the second estimate would confirm stronger Q2 growth and support positive risk sentiment heading into Q4 2026. It would also reduce the pressure on the Fed to cut rates and could push back market expectations for easing.\nBroadly unchanged: A third estimate in line with the second estimate would attract limited market attention\, with the corporate profits data becoming the key focus. Attention would shift quickly to the October 14 CPI and the October 28 FOMC meeting.\nDownward revision from second estimate: A significant downward revision would raise questions about the sustainability of US economic growth and could increase pressure on the Fed to ease. A final Q2 reading below 1.5% would revise the economic narrative in a meaningful negative way.\n\nThe PCE deflator revision\, if any\, carries additional significance given that the FOMC has just met and will be preparing for its October meeting. Any change to the official Q2 inflation reading could shift the Fed’s assessment of the inflation trajectory. \nHistorical GDP Growth\n\n\n\nQuarter\nGDP Growth (SAAR)\nEstimate Type\n\n\n\n\nQ1 2026\n1.6%\nSecond estimate\n\n\nQ4 2025\n0.5%\nThird estimate\n\n\nQ3 2025\n4.4%\nUpdated estimate\n\n\nQ2 2025\n3.8%\n—\n\n\nFull year 2025\n2.2%\nAnnual\n\n\n\nSource: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Q4 2025 was impacted by the US government shutdown\, which the BEA estimated subtracted approximately 1.0 percentage point from growth. SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate. \nMarket Positioning\nBy September 30\, markets will be in the final stages of the Q3 earnings season preview period. The definitive Q2 GDP figure will provide a basis for assessing how corporate revenues and profits in Q2 compared to the overall economic backdrop. Q3 2026 will have just ended at the time of this release\, and investors will already be looking at Q3 GDP nowcasts and early corporate results as the more immediate signal for year-end outlook. \nThe September 30 release also marks the end of the US government fiscal year\, and any commentary from the BEA regarding government spending contributions or subtractions will be relevant for the Q4 2026 outlook. Federal government shutdowns or spending cliffs at fiscal year-end can create volatility in the GDP data\, as demonstrated by the Q4 2025 government shutdown’s approximately 1 percentage point drag. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Employment Situation (NFP) October 2026 – The September 2026 labour market report on October 2\, just two days after this GDP release\, completing the Q3 data picture for the October FOMC.\nUS CPI Report October 2026 – The September 2026 inflation reading on October 14\, alongside which the final Q2 GDP will inform market and Fed expectations for the October 28 FOMC meeting.\nFOMC Rate Decision October 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s next rate decision on October 28\, for which the September 30 GDP finalisation will be an important data input.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nHow does the third GDP estimate differ from the advance and second estimates?\nThe third estimate is the final of three GDP releases for each quarter and incorporates the most complete source data\, including comprehensive figures on state and local government spending\, healthcare\, financial services\, and corporate profits by industry. While revisions from the second to the third estimate are often smaller than those from the advance to the second\, they can still be significant. The third estimate is considered the definitive quarterly GDP figure. \nWhen is the Q2 2026 third GDP estimate released?\nThe Q2 2026 third and final GDP estimate will be released on Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. \nWhat corporate profits data is included in the third GDP estimate?\nThe third GDP estimate includes a comprehensive corporate profits table with pre-tax and after-tax profit figures broken down by industry and by domestic versus rest-of-world profits. This level of detail allows economists and analysts to assess how the broader economy’s income is distributed across sectors\, and to compare the BEA’s GDP-level profit data with individual company earnings reported during earnings season. \nFeatured image: Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-gross-domestic-product-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260930T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260930T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104612Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104612Z
UID:1307-1790757000-1790760600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Retail Sales: Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet available\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Retail Sales. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Retail SalesNext US Retail Sales →\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report on Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index\, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge\, alongside personal income and consumer spending data. September 30 is the final day of Q3 2026 and the day the BEA also publishes the GDP Q2 2026 third estimate. The September PCE data will be the first post-FOMC-September inflation reading\, giving markets a sense of whether the Fed’s policy stance is gaining traction against persistent price pressures. As of April 2026\, core PCE stood at 3.3% year-on-year. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nWednesday\, September 30\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nData Covered\nAugust 2026 personal income and spending\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\n\n\nPrior Core PCE (YoY)\n3.3% (April 2026\, most recent available)\n\n\nFed Target\n2.0% (headline PCE)\n\n\nSame Day Release\nGDP Q2 2026 Third Estimate\n\n\n\nWhat is the PCE Price Index?\nThe Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and serves as the Federal Reserve’s official inflation target measure. PCE covers expenditures by US households and also includes spending made on their behalf by employers and government entities\, giving it broader coverage than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). PCE also adjusts for consumer substitution behaviour\, making it more responsive to actual spending patterns than a fixed-basket measure. \nCore PCE\, which strips out food and energy\, is the metric that receives the closest scrutiny from monetary policymakers. The Fed’s 2% target applies to headline PCE\, but core PCE provides a cleaner signal of underlying inflation momentum. With core PCE at 3.3% year-on-year in April 2026\, the Fed remains significantly above its target\, a situation that has kept the policy rate at restrictive levels throughout 2026. \nThe Personal Income and Outlays report also provides data on personal income growth and consumer spending. These components offer valuable context on the US consumer’s financial health and are used to estimate future GDP growth. The September 30 release will be the first look at August 2026 income and spending conditions\, arriving two weeks after the FOMC’s September 16 rate decision. \nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) Release: September 30\, 2026\nThe September 30 report arrives in a particularly significant context. The FOMC Rate Decision of September 16\, 2026 will already have been announced when the PCE data is published. September 30 PCE is therefore the first major inflation data point after the September FOMC meeting\, giving markets an early read on whether conditions justify the FOMC’s September stance and shaping expectations for the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. \nThe BEA releases the GDP Q2 2026 third estimate on the same day\, September 30. This Q2 GDP revision is typically minor\, reflecting small data adjustments to the already-published first and second estimates. However\, any meaningful revision to Q2 growth\, combined with the PCE inflation print\, will give a fuller picture of the US economic performance in the first half of 2026 and what it implies for the second half. \nConsensus forecasts for the September 30 PCE release will be published in the week before the report. Market participants will use the August CPI print (released September 11) as the most recent comparable inflation reading when forming expectations. \nWhy This PCE Release Matters\nThe September PCE report is the last major inflation data point before the FOMC Rate Decision on October 28-29\, 2026. Along with the October CPI report (due in mid-October)\, it will form the core of the inflation evidence available for the October meeting. If September PCE shows a continued decline from the elevated April 2026 reading of 3.3%\, it would build the case for an October rate cut. If PCE remains sticky\, it reinforces a hold. \nBeyond the immediate policy implications\, the August consumer spending data within the report will reflect summer spending patterns and be compared against the retail sales data published in mid-September. Real personal spending\, adjusted for PCE inflation\, shows whether consumers are maintaining purchasing power through the summer months or pulling back in response to high prices. Analysts watch this figure closely when constructing early estimates for Q3 2026 GDP. \nThe US GDP Q2 Third Estimate\, published alongside the PCE report on September 30\, will provide the final word on how the US economy performed in the April-to-June quarter. A downward revision to Q2 growth combined with a still-elevated PCE print would be a stagflationary signal. An upward revision alongside modifying inflation would be more constructive for markets. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nCore PCE above 3.3% YoY – New highs in core PCE would be a hawkish signal\, likely to reduce October rate-cut odds and weigh on equities and bonds simultaneously\, with the dollar strengthening.\nCore PCE between 3.0% and 3.3% YoY – A modest pullback from the April peak but still well above target. Markets may interpret this as early evidence of disinflation\, modestly supportive for risk assets without prompting aggressive repricing of rate expectations.\nCore PCE below 2.8% YoY – A significant deceleration that would substantially increase the probability of an October rate cut and produce a rally in bonds and equities.\n\nThe monthly change (MoM) will receive particular attention. A core PCE MoM reading of +0.1% or below\, annualised to around 1.2%\, would signal that month-by-month momentum has turned sharply lower even if the annual figure remains elevated. Markets often react to the MoM reading as a more forward-looking indicator than the lagged YoY comparison. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Month\nData Month\nCore PCE (YoY)\nCore PCE (MoM)\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nApril 2026\n3.3%\n+0.24%\n\n\nApril 2026\nMarch 2026\n3.2%\n+0.30%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nFebruary 2026\n3.0%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nDecember 2025\n3.0%\n+0.40%\n\n\nJan 2026\nNovember 2025\n2.8%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nOctober 2025\n2.7%\nn/a\n\n\n\nMarket Positioning\nAhead of the September 30 release\, market positioning will be guided by the September 11 CPI report and the September 16 FOMC decision. If the Fed holds rates at its September meeting\, traders will be watching the September 30 PCE print closely for any signal that a cut at October’s meeting is justified. Interest rate futures markets will provide real-time October cut probability estimates that shift in the minutes following the PCE publication. \nThe September 30 date has historical significance as a quarter-end date for global institutional investors. Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing can add unusual flows to equity\, bond\, and currency markets regardless of the PCE outcome\, making intraday volatility patterns harder to attribute solely to the inflation data. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The September 16 rate decision precedes the PCE release by two weeks; September 30 PCE will be the first read on whether the Fed’s stance is gaining traction on inflation.\nUS Gross Domestic Product September 2026 – The GDP Q2 third estimate is published on the same day (September 30)\, providing the final Q2 growth figure alongside the August inflation data.\nUS CPI Report September 2026 – Released September 11\, providing the August CPI print that will inform PCE forecasts and set market expectations for September 30.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the difference between core PCE and headline PCE?\nHeadline PCE covers all personal consumption expenditures\, including food and energy\, and is the measure against which the Fed’s 2% target is formally defined. Core PCE strips out food and energy to isolate underlying inflation trends. Because food and energy prices are more volatile\, core PCE is the figure most closely watched by the FOMC when assessing the persistence of inflation. \nWhen is the September 2026 PCE report released?\nThe BEA will publish the August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026. The GDP Q2 third estimate is released at the same time. \nHow does the September 30 PCE data affect the October FOMC decision?\nThe October 28-29 FOMC meeting is the next scheduled rate decision after September 30. The September PCE print\, along with October CPI (released mid-October)\, will form the key inflation evidence the Fed reviews at the October meeting. A significant decline in core PCE toward 3% or below would materially increase the odds of a cut; a sticky reading at or above 3.3% would reinforce a hold.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-personal-income-and-outlays-pce-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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