BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//financecalendar.com - ECPv6.17.4.1//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://www.financecalendar.com
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for financecalendar.com
REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H
X-Robots-Tag:noindex
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:UTC
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
TZNAME:UTC
DTSTART:20250101T000000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:America/New_York
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0500
TZOFFSETTO:-0400
TZNAME:EDT
DTSTART:20250309T070000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0400
TZOFFSETTO:-0500
TZNAME:EST
DTSTART:20251102T060000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0500
TZOFFSETTO:-0400
TZNAME:EDT
DTSTART:20260308T070000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0400
TZOFFSETTO:-0500
TZNAME:EST
DTSTART:20261101T060000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0500
TZOFFSETTO:-0400
TZNAME:EDT
DTSTART:20270314T070000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0400
TZOFFSETTO:-0500
TZNAME:EST
DTSTART:20271107T060000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20260918T000000
DTEND;TZID=UTC:20260918T235959
DTSTAMP:20260918T122954Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260918T122954Z
UID:1258-1789689600-1789775999@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Bank of Japan Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Bank of Japan Rate Decision: Hiked 25bp to 1.25% (uncollateralised overnight call rate)\, vote 7-2 (Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 12:00 pm JST (11:00 pm ET\, 4:00 am London)). \n\nConsensus\nA 25bp hike to 1.25%\, according to a Bloomberg survey of 52 economists\, all of whom expect a rate rise at this meeting\nActual\nHiked 25bp to 1.25% (uncollateralised overnight call rate)\, vote 7-2\n\nFull schedule and background: Bank of Japan Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 18\, 2026 \n\nThe Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18\, 2026\, in a 7-2 split vote that matched consensus but saw the yen weaken rather than strengthen. \nAll 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate from 1.00% to 1.25% on September 18\, 2026\, and around 93% see a further increase by January 2027. This marks a sharp shift from earlier surveys\, where only around 5% of economists expected a September move\, according to a poll cited by FinancialJuice. A genuine surprise would be the Bank of Japan holding rates steady\, or signalling that the pace of policy normalisation will slow\, which markets currently regard as unlikely given the near-unanimous consensus for a hike. \n← Previous Bank of Japan Rate DecisionNext Bank of Japan Rate Decision →\nThe Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its September 2026 monetary policy decision on Friday\, 18 September 2026. The Policy Board meets over two days (17-18 September)\, with “The Bank’s View” statement released on 18 September. As of June 2026\, the uncollateralized overnight call rate stands at 0.75%\, unchanged since December 2025. The September meeting is a non-Outlook Report meeting\, sitting between the July and October quarterly publications\, but may be pivotal if the July meeting did not deliver a hike and inflation data through the summer continues to support further tightening. \nBank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision: September 18\, 2026\nSeptember’s meeting is the sixth of eight scheduled Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings in 2026. It falls between the July Quarterly Outlook Report meeting and the October Quarterly Outlook Report meeting. While September does not produce a full updated forecast publication\, it can still be the meeting at which the Board decides to move rates if data and conditions support action. \nThe BoJ’s April 2026 decision was marked by a 6-3 vote with three Policy Board members favouring an immediate hike to 1.0%. The Bank’s leadership has consistently described real interest rates as “extremely low” and signalled a continued intent to adjust the “degree of monetary accommodation” in line with evolving economic conditions. The trajectory of Japan’s inflation and wages through the summer months will determine whether September or October becomes the decision point for the next hike. \nWhat to Expect\nBy September\, the Policy Board will have access to CPI data for July and August 2026. Japan’s core CPI has been tracking above 2% through 2026\, and the BoJ’s April forecast projected 2.8% core inflation for fiscal 2026. If summer data confirms this trend\, the Board has strong justification for hiking to 1.0%. If inflation eases meaningfully toward 2% or below\, the Board is more likely to hold and wait for the October Quarterly Outlook Report before making its next move. \nThe labour market will also be a key input. Japan’s job-to-applicant ratio has remained elevated\, and nominal wages have grown meaningfully following the 2026 spring shunto. The BoJ will review these data together with consumption and activity indicators to assess whether the positive wage-price cycle it has been awaiting is genuinely entrenched. \nGlobal conditions will influence September’s decision. The FOMC meets on 15-16 September\, the two days immediately before the BoJ’s 17-18 September meeting. A Federal Reserve hold or cut would be interpreted as a global disinflationary signal and could strengthen the case for the BoJ to hold at September\, while a hike would reinforce the case for action. The yen’s level heading into September will also be a factor: any further weakening would increase imported inflation and add pressure on the BoJ to act. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate\nVote\n\n\n\n\nApril 2026\nHold\n0.75%\n6-3\n\n\nMarch 2026\nHold\n0.75%\n8-1\n\n\nJanuary 2026\nHold\n0.75%\nMajority\n\n\nDecember 2025\nHike +25bp\n0.75%\nMajority\n\n\nOctober 2025\nHold\n0.50%\nMajority\n\n\nJuly 2025\nHold\n0.50%\nMajority\n\n\nJune 2025\nHold\n0.50%\nMajority\n\n\nJanuary 2025\nHike +25bp\n0.50%\nMajority\n\n\n\nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nHold at current rate – A hold would be taken as data-dependent caution\, particularly if inflation data from July and August does not clearly support a hike. The yen may weaken modestly. The Nikkei 225 would benefit from yen softness. JGB yields would hold. Markets would immediately shift attention to the October Quarterly Outlook Report meeting as the next potential hike point. A hold at September with no change in forward guidance would be seen as neutral to slightly dovish.\nHike 25bp – A hike to 1.0% (assuming July held) would confirm the BoJ’s commitment to normalisation. The yen would strengthen meaningfully\, JGB yields would rise\, and the Nikkei 225 would likely sell off on yen strength and higher borrowing cost concerns. Global carry trade positions would face pressure. The press statement’s language about further hikes beyond 1.0% would be the primary market driver after the initial reaction to the rate move itself.\nHold with hawkish guidance – A hold accompanied by more explicit language about the conditions for a September or October hike would be taken as directionally hawkish without the immediate market disruption of an actual hike. Yen strengthening and JGB yield increases would be more modest than in a direct hike scenario.\n\nStatement and Press Conference\nAs a non-Quarterly Outlook Report meeting\, the September statement (“The Bank’s View”) will be shorter than the April or July reports. However\, it will still contain the Policy Board’s current assessment of economic and price conditions\, and any changes from the language used in prior statements will be closely analysed by market participants. The Governor will hold a press conference following the announcement. \nParticular attention will be paid to whether the characterisation of inflation changes between July and September: any upgrade from “broadly on track” to “sustainably above 2%” would signal that the Board is closer to the conditions it has set for further normalisation. Any reference to global risks\, including energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty\, would be taken as a signal for a potential hold or delay. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 decision\, immediately before the BoJ’s September 17-18 meeting\, providing critical context on the US-Japan rate differential.\nBank of England MPC Rate Decision September 2026 – The BoE’s September 17 decision\, on the same day as the BoJ meeting begins\, providing broader global context.\nBank of Japan Rate Decision July 2026 – The preceding BoJ quarterly decision on 31 July\, likely to determine whether September is a pivotal or routine meeting.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nIs September typically a significant meeting for the Bank of Japan?\nSeptember is not a Quarterly Outlook Report meeting\, which means it produces a shorter policy statement rather than the full updated economic projections published in January\, April\, July\, and October. However\, the Bank of Japan can and does move rates at any scheduled meeting based on data. In the current tightening cycle\, whether September is a hike or a hold will depend on the inflation and wage data available at the time of the meeting\, and on the Board’s assessment of global risk. \nWhen is the September 2026 BoJ decision announced?\nThe decision will be released on Friday\, 18 September 2026\, following the two-day meeting on 17-18 September. The announcement typically occurs around midday JST (3:00-4:00 am GMT)\, with the Governor’s press conference following in the afternoon. \nHow does Japan’s core CPI affect the BoJ’s timing of rate hikes?\nThe BoJ uses core CPI (CPI excluding fresh food) as its primary inflation measure\, targeting a sustainable rate of “around 2 percent”. The Bank has stated that it will continue to raise the policy rate as the economy and prices develop in line with its projections. If core CPI remains above 2% on a sustained basis\, driven by both cost-push factors (energy\, imports) and demand-pull factors (wages\, domestic services)\, the Board will feel confident that the conditions for further normalisation are met. A sharp fall in core CPI\, or evidence that the rise is entirely cost-push without wage support\, would justify a pause. \nFeatured image: Photo by Clement Souchet on Unsplash. \nResults: Bank of Japan Rate Decision\, September 18\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nPolicy rate\n25bp hike to 1.25%\n25bp hike to 1.25%\nHeld at 1.00%\n\n\nVote split\nNot formally forecast\, but near-unanimous economist expectation of a hike\n7-2 in favour of the hike\n6-3 hold at previous meeting\n\n\n\nThe Bank of Japan raised the uncollateralised overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18\, 2026\, exactly matching the consensus captured in the Bloomberg survey in which all 52 economists polled expected a hike. This is the policy rate’s highest level since 1995 and follows the previous increase only three months earlier\, a faster pace than the roughly six-month gap that preceded it\, according to CNBC. \nThe decision was not unanimous. Board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissented\, preferring to keep rates unchanged\, producing a 7-2 vote. The Bank cited a risk that inflation could deviate above its 2% target as the reason for acting now rather than waiting for the October Quarterly Outlook Report. This landed close to the “hike 25bp” scenario flagged in the preview\, though the two dissents added a more cautious tone than a unanimous vote would have shown. \nThe hike came against a backdrop of explicit pressure from Washington\, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly pushing for faster Japanese policy normalisation\, according to Bloomberg. Japan’s core inflation had actually eased slightly to 1.7% in August from 1.8% in July\, but policymakers judged the risk of inflation running persistently above target as the more pressing concern. \nMarket Reaction\nThe yen weakened rather than strengthened on the hike\, falling as much as 0.7% to around 157.1 per dollar\, its steepest one-day slide in weeks\, according to Reuters. Analysts attributed this to the split vote: two dissents suggested the Board may proceed more cautiously with further tightening than a unanimous decision would have implied\, tempering bets on a rapid follow-up move. HSBC’s chief Asia economist Fred Neumann said the dissents leave “lingering doubts” over how quickly Japan’s central bank will tighten further. \nJapanese equities rallied on the relief that policy would not turn more aggressively hawkish\, with the Nikkei 225 gaining around 1.5% on the day\, according to CNBC. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield slipped after erasing earlier gains\, even as the policy rate rose to its highest level since 1995. Reuters reported that global shares and bonds broadly dipped the same day as a wider push by central banks to contain inflation weighed on sentiment beyond Japan alone. \nAttention now turns to whether the BOJ delivers a further hike before its next Quarterly Outlook Report in October. A Reuters poll cited by Investing Live had economists expecting the policy rate to reach 1.5% by end-March 2027 and 1.75% by the second quarter of 2027\, though the split vote may push some forecasters to push back the timing of the next move. \nKey takeaways from the statement\n\nThe Policy Board voted 7-2 to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%\, with Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting in favour of a hold.\nThe Bank flagged a risk that inflation could deviate upward beyond its 2% target as the primary justification for acting now.\nThe move came only three months after the prior hike\, a faster cadence than the roughly six-month gaps seen earlier in the tightening cycle.\nThe decision followed unusually explicit calls from Washington\, including from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent\, for faster Japanese policy normalisation.\nGovernor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference is being watched for signals on whether the October Quarterly Outlook Report could bring a further hike\, given expectations from some economists for the rate to reach 1.5% by March 2027.\n\nWhat this means for your money now\nFor anyone holding yen-denominated savings or Japanese assets\, the rate rise itself did not deliver the currency boost some investors may have expected. A weaker yen despite higher rates means imports into Japan\, including energy and food\, stay expensive\, while it becomes marginally cheaper for overseas visitors and importers buying Japanese goods. \nInvestors in global funds exposed to the yen carry trade\, where money is borrowed cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere\, should note that further BOJ hikes remain on the table\, based on Reuters-polled forecasts for the rate to reach 1.5% by March 2027. Continued unwinding of these positions could still add volatility to global equities and bond markets in the months ahead\, even though today’s reaction was muted. \nUK and European savers with exposure to Japanese equities benefited from the Nikkei’s gain\, though currency-hedged versus unhedged fund performance will differ given the yen’s fall against the dollar.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/bank-of-japan-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260918T020000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260918T030000
DTSTAMP:20260918T132048Z
CREATED:20260826T033528Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260918T132048Z
UID:2267-1789696800-1789700400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:UK Retail Sales September 2026
DESCRIPTION:UK Retail Sales: +0.5% MoM\, +2.4% YoY (August 2026) (Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\n+0.5% MoM\, +2.4% YoY (August 2026)\n\nFull schedule and background: UK Retail Sales. \nUpdated September 18\, 2026 \n\nUK retail sales volumes rose 0.5% month-on-month in August 2026\, far exceeding the consensus forecast of a 0.2% decline\, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics on September 18\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for August 2026 UK retail sales has not yet been published by Reuters or Bloomberg. The prior reading\, covering July 2026\, showed retail sales volumes fell by 0.5% month-on-month\, according to the Office for National Statistics\, marking the first monthly decline since April 2026 and following an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in June. Traders and analysts will be watching whether August data confirms this softening trend or rebounds\, with a surprise likely to be any reading showing growth stronger than 0.5% or a deeper contraction than economists broadly expect\, which would suggest weakening consumer demand ahead of the autumn. \nThe UK Retail Sales report for August 2026 is released on September 18\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time\, 2:00 am ET) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The release covers retail sales volumes and values for August 2026\, the most closely watched monthly gauge of consumer spending on the high street and online. Full schedule and background: UK Retail Sales. \nWhat is UK Retail Sales?\nUK Retail Sales measures the volume and value of goods sold by retailers in Great Britain\, covering food stores\, non-food stores (such as clothing\, household goods and department stores) and non-store retailing\, which is mostly online. The ONS builds the figures from a monthly survey of around 5\,000 retailers\, adjusting for seasonal patterns and inflation to produce a “volume” measure that strips out the effect of price changes\, so it reflects how much people are actually buying rather than how much they are spending. \nMarkets watch this release closely because consumer spending accounts for roughly 60% of UK economic output. A run of weak retail figures can signal a slowing economy and add pressure on the Bank of England to consider interest rate cuts\, while stronger than expected spending can raise concerns about inflation staying sticky. \nThe headline figure is the month-on-month percentage change in sales volumes\, seasonally adjusted. Economists and journalists also watch the year-on-year change and a version of the data that excludes fuel\, since petrol price swings can distort the picture of underlying consumer demand. \nWhen is the August UK Retail Sales report released?\nThe ONS publishes the August 2026 retail sales bulletin on Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 7:00 am London time (7:00 am BST\, 2:00 am ET). The data is published on the ONS website as part of its scheduled release calendar and is free to access at the time of release\, with no embargoed press access for the general public. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 UK retail sales report had not yet been published at the time of writing. Forecasts from economists polled by Reuters and other data providers typically appear in the days immediately before the release. \nThe most recent published figures\, for July 2026\, showed retail sales volumes fell 0.5% month-on-month\, in line with market expectations at the time\, according to data compiled by Trading Economics. This followed a downwardly revised 0.7% rise in June 2026. On an annual basis\, sales were up 1.6% in July\, the smallest annual rise in three months\, down from 3.8% in June. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nRetail sales volumes\, month-on-month\n-0.5%\nNot yet published\n\n\nRetail sales volumes\, year-on-year\n+1.6%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nSterling could firm and gilt yields may edge up if traders see it as reducing the chance of a near-term Bank of England rate cut\nConsumers spent more than expected\, which could suggest the economy is holding up better than feared\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, as the figure would confirm the existing view of a gradually cooling consumer\nSpending is behaving broadly as economists expected\, so the picture for household finances stays much the same\n\n\nBelow consensus\nSterling could soften and traders may add to bets on a Bank of England rate cut\, according to commentary from analysts tracking UK data surprises\nHouseholds pulled back on spending\, a sign that cost-of-living pressures or weaker confidence are weighing on the high street\n\n\n\nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe Bank of England watches retail sales as one of several signals on the health of the consumer\, alongside wage growth and inflation. According to Trading Economics\, the July 2026 decline was the first fall in sales since April\, with non-food stores and online retailers pulling back after a burst of early summer promotions and hot weather had pulled demand forward into May and June. Food store sales held up better\, supported by warm weather and World Cup-related spending. \nThis volatility around weather and one-off events like major sporting tournaments makes it harder to read the underlying trend\, which is one reason economists tend to look at the three-month or annual comparison alongside the single month-on-month figure. With UK inflation still running above the Bank of England’s 2% target\, policymakers are watching whether consumer spending cools enough to ease price pressures without tipping the economy into a sharper slowdown. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and savings rates: Weaker than expected retail sales can support the case for Bank of England interest rate cuts\, which would eventually feed through to lower mortgage rates for borrowers coming off fixed deals\, but also lower returns on savings accounts.\nJobs and wages: A sustained slowdown in consumer spending can eventually filter through to retail and hospitality employment\, since these sectors depend directly on footfall and sales volumes.\nPrices: If shoppers pull back sharply\, retailers may respond with more discounting\, which can help cool inflation over time\, benefiting anyone doing a weekly food shop or buying big-ticket items.\nInvestments and pensions: UK-focused equity funds and pension holdings with exposure to retailers and consumer goods companies can move on the day of release\, particularly shares of major supermarkets and high street chains.\nThe pound: Sterling often reacts within minutes of the release against the dollar and euro\, since currency traders use consumer data to gauge the likely path of Bank of England policy relative to the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.\n\nRelated events\n\nBank of England interest rate decisions\, which weigh consumer spending data heavily when setting rates\nUK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation report\, published separately by the ONS\nUK labour market and wages data\, which together with retail sales gives a fuller picture of household finances\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is UK Retail Sales released?\nThe ONS publishes the release at 7:00 am London time (7:00 am BST)\, which is 2:00 am ET. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published on the ONS release calendar and the main ONS retail sales statistical bulletin page. \nHow does retail sales data affect interest rates?\nThe Bank of England uses consumer spending trends\, alongside inflation and wage data\, to judge whether the economy needs looser or tighter monetary policy\, so a run of weak or strong retail figures can shift expectations for future rate decisions. \nWhat is the difference between the value and volume measures?\nThe value measure shows how much money was spent in cash terms\, while the volume measure adjusts for price changes so it reflects the actual quantity of goods bought\, which is why economists focus on the volume figure. \nWhen is the next UK Retail Sales report released?\nThe ONS publishes retail sales monthly\, typically around the third week of the following month\, so the next report covering September 2026 data is expected around mid-October 2026. \nResults: UK Retail Sales\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nRetail sales volumes\, month-on-month\n-0.2%\n+0.5%\n-0.5% (July 2026\, revised)\n\n\nRetail sales volumes\, year-on-year\n+1.9%\n+2.4%\n+1.2% (revised down from +1.6%)\n\n\n\nUK retail sales volumes rose 0.5% month-on-month in August 2026\, comfortably beating the consensus forecast of a 0.2% fall from economists surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg\, according to the Office for National Statistics. The reading marked a sharp reversal from July’s 0.5% decline and defied expectations of a continued slowdown in consumer spending. On an annual basis\, sales volumes rose 2.4%\, faster than the 1.9% pace forecast and up from a downwardly revised 1.2% in July. \nThe ONS attributed the rebound to stronger online shopping and department store sales\, with clothing and food retailers also recording gains. Fuel sales were the exception\, falling 1.3% from July as pump prices climbed amid renewed uncertainty in the Middle East linked to the Iran conflict. Warm weather and what commentators described as a brighter national mood were cited as supporting factors\, even as household energy bills continued to rise. The result landed closer to the upside scenario set out in the preview\, in which stronger than expected spending would suggest the economy is holding up better than feared. \nThe surprise strength came despite a more cautious backdrop from individual retailers. Primark reported flat underlying UK sales growth in its most recent quarter\, John Lewis Partnership widened its half-year losses\, and Next trimmed its sales growth outlook\, according to reporting from GB News. This divergence between the aggregate ONS figures and individual company updates suggests the rebound may be concentrated in specific categories rather than broad-based across the high street. \nMarket Reaction\nSterling edged higher against the dollar in the minutes after the release\, with GBP/USD rising to around 1.3366 from 1.3361\, according to FXStreet. The move was modest\, reflecting the fact that markets had already been repricing Bank of England expectations following the previous day’s interest rate decision\, when the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%\, with three members preferring a 25 basis point increase to 4%\, according to Sunday Guardian Live. \nThe stronger retail figures reinforced the slightly hawkish tone from the Bank of England\, adding to the view among traders that an interest rate cut is unlikely in the near term. The FTSE 100 had already risen 1.2% on Thursday\, driven mainly by the rate decision\, a pause in gilt sales and falling oil prices\, and equity moves on Friday were attributed more to these factors and global risk sentiment than to the retail sales print itself. Gilt yields remained low heading into Friday’s session\, with no immediate large move linked specifically to the retail data. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe stronger than expected spending figures\, combined with the Bank of England’s hawkish hold\, mean the near-term outlook for savers and borrowers has shifted slightly. Anyone hoping for an imminent cut to mortgage rates may need to wait longer\, since a resilient consumer gives the Bank of England less reason to loosen policy quickly\, while savers holding cash in easy access accounts continue to benefit from rates that remain higher for longer. Shoppers\, meanwhile\, face a mixed picture\, with rising fuel and energy costs offsetting the boost from stronger high street and online spending.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/uk-retail-sales-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260918T091500
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260918T101500
DTSTAMP:20260918T162256Z
CREATED:20260825T105410Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260918T162256Z
UID:2080-1789722900-1789726500@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Industrial Production September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Industrial Production: +0.1% MoM industrial production\, +0.2% manufacturing output (August 2026); July revised to -0.4% (Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\n+0.1% MoM industrial production\, +0.2% manufacturing output (August 2026); July revised to -0.4%\n\nFull schedule and background: US Industrial Production. \nUpdated September 18\, 2026 \n\nUS industrial production rose 0.1% month-on-month in August 2026\, below the 0.3% consensus forecast\, as the Federal Reserve also revised July’s reading down from growth of 0.2% to a 0.4% decline\, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release published on September 18\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 industrial production report has not yet been widely published ahead of the release. In its most recent report\, the Federal Reserve said industrial output rose 0.2% in July 2026\, matching manufacturing output growth of 0.2%\, after a 0.3% rise in June\, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release. Total industrial production stood 1.1% above its year-earlier level\, with capacity utilisation edging up to 76.3%. Any August reading that deviates sharply from that recent trend\, particularly a contraction or a jump above 0.5%\, would count as a surprise and could shift expectations for factory activity and Federal Reserve policy discussions. \nThe US Industrial Production report for August 2026 is released on Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London) by the Federal Reserve Board\, under its G.17 statistical release. The report covers industrial output data for August 2026. Full schedule and background: US Industrial Production. \nWhat is industrial production?\nIndustrial production measures the physical output of factories\, mines and utilities across the United States. The Federal Reserve compiles the index from data on electricity used by industrial customers\, hours worked in manufacturing\, and physical unit output such as tonnes of steel\, barrels of oil and vehicles assembled. The index is set to a base of 100 in 2017\, so a reading of 103.0 means output is 3.0% higher than the 2017 average. \nThe release also publishes capacity utilization\, which shows what proportion of a factory’s\, mine’s or utility’s total sustainable output is actually being used. A rising utilization rate can signal that firms are running close to their limits\, which sometimes precedes new investment or\, if labour and materials are scarce\, upward pressure on prices. \nMarkets watch this data because it is one of the more direct\, “hard” measures of real economic activity\, in contrast to survey-based indicators such as purchasing managers’ indexes. Central banks\, including the Federal Reserve\, use it alongside employment and spending data to judge whether the economy is expanding\, stalling or overheating. \nWhen is the August 2026 industrial production report released?\nThe Federal Reserve Board publishes the G.17 release at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London time) on Friday\, September 18\, 2026. It is published on the Federal Reserve’s G.17 statistical release page. The Fed’s 2026 publication calendar places this release consistently in the third week of the month\, following the same monthly rhythm used throughout the year. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of this writing\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 release has not yet been published. Forecaster surveys such as the Action Economics Forecast Survey and Trading Economics typically firm up in the days before the release\, once more monthly indicators such as manufacturing hours and vehicle assemblies are available. \nThe most recent published reading\, for July 2026\, showed industrial production and manufacturing output each growing 0.2% on the month\, following 0.3% growth in June\, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.3% in July\, which the Fed noted is 3.1 percentage points below its long-run average from 1972 to 2025. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nIndustrial production (MoM)\n+0.2%\nNot yet published\n\n\nManufacturing output (MoM)\n+0.2%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCapacity utilization\n76.3%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as a sign the factory sector is holding up\, which analysts at Capital Economics have linked in recent notes to strength in AI-related manufacturing investment\nFactories and utilities produced more than expected\, suggesting demand for goods and energy remains firm\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, seen as confirming the existing\, gradual growth trend in the sector\nThe industrial economy is behaving broadly as expected\, neither accelerating nor slowing sharply\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould add to concerns about softening manufacturing momentum\, a theme flagged in Trading Economics’ coverage of recent misses against forecasts\nOutput fell short of what economists expected\, which can point to weaker orders\, higher costs\, or one-off disruptions such as maintenance shutdowns\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities discussed by economists\, not predictions of the actual outcome. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nIndustrial output growth has been uneven through 2026. Data compiled by Haver Analytics show industrial production rose at a 4.0% annualised rate in the second quarter of 2026\, after a slower 1.1% annualised pace in the first quarter. Monthly moves have swung between a 0.7% to 0.9% gain in April 2026 and a 0.3% decline in March 2026\, according to Federal Reserve releases\, reflecting choppy demand for durable goods and shifting energy and mining output. \nManufacturing\, which makes up around 78% of the total industrial production index according to Trading Economics\, has been supported this year by investment tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centre buildouts\, a trend highlighted by IBISWorld and Capital Economics. At the same time\, tariffs on imported inputs and elevated oil prices have been cited as headwinds. The Federal Reserve is watching this data as part of its broader assessment of whether the economy can absorb its recent interest rate decisions without a sharp slowdown in output or jobs. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing rates: Industrial production does not move mortgage rates directly\, but a run of weak readings can add to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further\, which tends to pull down longer-term borrowing costs over time.\nSavings: If the data feeds into a weaker growth narrative and lower rate expectations\, savings account and fixed-deposit rates in the US\, and potentially globally as central banks watch each other\, could drift lower in the following months.\nJobs and wages: Factories\, mines and utilities employ millions of workers. A sustained fall in industrial output has historically preceded softer hiring in manufacturing-heavy regions of the US\, and by extension in supplier countries in Asia and Europe.\nPrices: Very high capacity utilization can be an early sign of price pressure\, since factories running near their limits may raise prices rather than lose orders. Conversely\, spare capacity tends to keep goods price inflation contained.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Industrial shares and broader US equity indices can react to surprises in this data\, particularly manufacturing-heavy names. A weaker than expected reading can also weigh on the dollar if it strengthens expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts\, with knock-on effects for the pound and euro exchange rates against the dollar.\n\nRecent industrial production readings\n\n\n\nMonth\nIndustrial production (MoM)\nManufacturing output (MoM)\n\n\n\n\nMarch 2026\n-0.3%\nn/a\n\n\nApril 2026\n+0.9% (revised)\n+0.7% (revised)\n\n\nMay 2026\n+0.1%\n0.0%\n\n\nJune 2026\n+0.1%\n0.0%\n\n\nJuly 2026\n+0.2%\n+0.2%\n\n\n\nSource: Federal Reserve G.17 statistical releases and Haver Analytics coverage of the underlying data. \nRelated events\n\nUS retail sales\, which is released around the same time each month and offers a demand-side complement to this supply-side measure of output.\nThe ISM Manufacturing PMI\, a survey-based indicator published earlier each month that often foreshadows the direction of industrial production.\nThe next Federal Reserve interest rate decision\, since policymakers weigh industrial output alongside employment and inflation data when setting rates.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August 2026 industrial production report released?\nIt is released at 9:15 am ET\, which is 2:15 pm in London\, on Friday\, September 18\, 2026. \nHow should I read the industrial production index?\nFocus on the month-on-month percentage change and the capacity utilization rate\, and compare both to their recent trend rather than looking at a single month in isolation. \nDoes this report move interest rate expectations?\nIt can\, particularly if it comes in far from consensus\, because the Federal Reserve treats industrial output as one gauge of overall economic momentum when deciding on interest rates. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe Federal Reserve Board publishes the G.17 release on its official G.17 statistical release page. \nWhen is the next industrial production report after this one?\nThe Federal Reserve typically publishes the following month’s data in the third week of the subsequent month\, continuing its established monthly schedule. \nResults: US Industrial Production (August 2026)\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nIndustrial production (MoM)\n+0.3%\n+0.1%\n-0.4% (revised from +0.2%)\n\n\nManufacturing output (MoM)\nNot separately published\n+0.2%\n-0.1% (revised from +0.2%)\n\n\nMotor vehicles and parts output (MoM)\nNot separately published\n+2.6%\nNot separately published\n\n\n\nIndustrial production rose 0.1% in August 2026\, short of the 0.3% gain that economists had pencilled in\, according to a forecast cited by Investing.com ahead of the release. The Federal Reserve’s G.17 statistical release for the month also carried a large downward revision to July: output originally reported as growing 0.2% was revised to a 0.4% decline\, based on more complete source data collected since the initial estimate. \nManufacturing output\, which accounts for the bulk of the index\, rose 0.2% in August after a downwardly revised 0.1% dip in July. Within manufacturing\, motor vehicles and parts output jumped 2.6% on the month\, one of the stronger contributions to the headline figure\, according to the Federal Reserve’s release. \nTaken together\, the report lands closer to the “below consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: the headline monthly gain missed the forecast\, and the sizeable downward revision to July suggests the factory sector’s momentum earlier in the summer was weaker than first reported\, even though August itself showed a modest rebound in manufacturing. \nMarket Reaction\nIndustrial production is a medium-impact\, backward-looking indicator\, and the release did not appear to trigger a sharp\, isolated move in equities\, Treasury yields or the dollar in reporting on the day. Investing.com’s calendar coverage for September 18\, 2026 noted the data was released alongside several scheduled Federal Reserve speakers\, which tends to dilute any single reaction to one data point. \nEven so\, the scale of the downward revision to July’s reading\, from growth of 0.2% to a contraction of 0.4%\, gives traders a somewhat softer read on the manufacturing backdrop than the prior report implied. Economists watching Federal Reserve policy typically weigh this kind of revision alongside labour market and inflation data rather than reacting to it in isolation\, so any effect on interest rate expectations is likely to show up gradually rather than in an immediate market swing. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook is largely unchanged for most households. A single month’s miss against consensus\, alongside a backward-looking revision\, is unlikely on its own to move mortgage rates\, savings rates or the pound\, euro and dollar exchange rates in a lasting way. Investors in industrial and manufacturing-heavy shares may see some short-term repricing as they digest the weaker starting point for the summer\, but the bigger drivers for borrowing costs and currencies remain the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decisions on interest rates and the incoming jobs and inflation data.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-industrial-production-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR