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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T070000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T080000
DTSTAMP:20260917T132107Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
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UID:1234-1789628400-1789632000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Bank of England MPC Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Bank of England MPC Rate Decision: Held at 3.75%\, vote 6-3 (three members voted for a hike to 4%) (Thursday\, September 17\, 2026 at 12:00 pm GMT (7:00 am ET\, 12:00 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nHold at 3.75% (Reuters poll of economists)\nActual\nHeld at 3.75%\, vote 6-3 (three members voted for a hike to 4%)\n\nFull schedule and background: Bank of England MPC Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 17\, 2026 \n\nThe Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17\, 2026\, in a 6-3 vote matching the Reuters poll consensus\, while sharply raising its inflation forecast and pausing active gilt sales as Governor Andrew Bailey warned a rate rise may be needed if energy-driven price pressures persist. \nEconomists surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17\, 2026\, with most seeing no change through at least mid-2027 because inflation\, running near 3.1% this year\, is not judged weak enough for a majority of the Monetary Policy Committee to cut. This follows a divided 6-3 hold at the July 30 meeting\, when three members\, Huw Pill\, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann\, voted to raise rates to 4% amid concerns that higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could keep inflation elevated. A surprise would be either a rate rise\, if the hawkish minority grows\, or a shift towards a near-term cut signal. \n← Previous Bank of England MPC Rate DecisionNext Bank of England MPC Rate Decision →\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026\, at 12:00 GMT. The decision will be accompanied by the simultaneous release of the monetary policy summary and detailed voting minutes. The Bank Rate currently stands at 3.75%\, held through multiple consecutive meetings in 2026 following three quarter-point cuts in 2025. The September meeting arrives after the BoE’s August Monetary Policy Report (MPR)\, which will have published updated staff forecasts for UK inflation\, GDP\, and unemployment\, providing the full data context for the September decision. Market forecasters broadly expect 1-2 rate cuts in 2026\, potentially placing September as a live candidate if UK inflation has shown meaningful progress towards the 2% target. \nThe Bank of England and the MPC\nThe Bank of England (the BoE) is the United Kingdom’s central bank and monetary authority. Its Monetary Policy Committee operates under a mandate to maintain price stability\, defined as CPI inflation at 2%\, as set by the UK government through the annual remit letter to the Governor. The MPC has nine members: the Governor\, three Deputy Governors\, the Chief Economist\, and four external members\, each with an equal vote and each casting that vote publicly. This transparency sets the BoE apart from most major central banks and allows markets to track shifting sentiment within the committee between meetings. \nThe MPC meets eight times per year\, with four meetings producing a Monetary Policy Report (MPR) containing updated staff economic projections: February\, May\, August\, and November. September is not an MPR meeting\, meaning the September 17 decision will not be accompanied by new staff forecasts. However\, the immediately preceding August MPR will have laid out the MPC’s most recent economic outlook and rate path guidance\, which will define the context for September. The September 17 decision follows a July 30 meeting and precedes November 5 (MPR meeting). \nMPC September Meeting: September 17\, 2026\nThe September 17 meeting takes place after three months of UK data released since the June 18 decision\, including the August MPR update. By September\, the MPC will have reviewed data for July and August inflation (UK CPI and RPI)\, Q2 2026 GDP\, July and August labour market reports\, and the full summer data set. The August MPR will have provided the committee’s most recent projections\, making September an assessment of whether the August outlook needs correction or confirmation. \nThe MPC’s internal divisions have been notable in 2026. February’s 5-4 hold (four members preferring a cut) contrasted sharply with April’s 8-1 hold (one member preferring a hike). This range reflects genuine disagreement about whether the current Bank Rate of 3.75% is appropriately calibrated given UK inflation\, which has been elevated by energy costs from the Middle East conflict. Wage growth\, which has been running above 4% year-on-year in the UK in early 2026\, is a particular concern for those worried about domestically generated services inflation. The Bank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026 on June 18 is the most recent available reference point. \nWhat to Expect\nWhether September 2026 delivers a rate cut depends primarily on the trajectory of UK CPI and wage growth through the summer. If August CPI has returned towards 2.5% or below\, and wage growth has moderated below 4%\, the MPC will face a strong case for resuming the easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 3.50%. The four members who voted to cut in February will likely maintain or strengthen that view if inflation is trending lower; the consensus-holder members from March and April would need convincing data to cross over. \nThe global context also matters. If the US Federal Reserve has cut at its September 15-16 meeting (which falls two days before the BoE’s September 17 decision)\, the dollar-sterling dynamic could influence the BoE’s assessment of imported inflation risks. A weaker dollar following a Fed cut would reduce the sterling downside risk from a BoE cut\, making September more viable. The BoE explicitly monitors global central bank actions as part of its assessment of financial conditions. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nBank Rate\nVote\n\n\n\n\nMay 2025 (MPR)\n-25bp\n4.25%\nn/v\n\n\nAug 2025 (MPR)\n-25bp\n4.00%\nn/v\n\n\nDec 2025\n-25bp\n3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nFeb 2026 (MPR)\nHold\n3.75%\n5-4 (4 cut)\n\n\nMar 2026\nHold\n3.75%\n9-0\n\n\nApr 2026\nHold\n3.75%\n8-1 (1 hike)\n\n\nJun 2026\nTBD (Jun 18)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nSep 2026\nTBD (Sep 17)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\n\nSources: Bank of England; Cambridge Currencies. “n/v” = vote not yet verified. Three 25bp cuts in 2025 from 4.50% to 3.75%. MPR = Monetary Policy Report meeting (with forecasts). Feb 2026 vote: 5 hold\, 4 cut. Apr 2026 vote: 8 hold\, 1 hike. \nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nCut (25bp) – A cut to 3.50% at September\, if not already priced\, would weaken sterling modestly\, boost UK government bonds (gilts)\, and support rate-sensitive equities (housebuilders\, REITs). This outcome would reflect growing confidence within the MPC that UK inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%\, and would likely be accompanied by a majority vote of at least 6-3.\nHold – A hold at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive 2026 meeting would signal that the MPC remains cautious about inflation risks\, particularly services inflation and wage growth. Sterling might strengthen modestly. Gilt yields would hold or edge higher. The market would then focus on November as the next realistic cut opportunity given its MPR format.\nHike – A hike following one member’s dissent in April would represent a majority shift and would only occur if UK CPI had spiked significantly above 3% by September. Such an outcome would strongly support sterling and UK gilt yields while pressuring equities\, particularly consumer and property sectors.\n\nPress Conference and Forward Guidance\nThe Bank of England does not hold a traditional post-decision press conference for non-MPR meetings like September. The decision is communicated through the monetary policy summary and the MPC minutes\, released simultaneously at 12:00 GMT. Governor Andrew Bailey may give speeches or media appearances in the following days\, but the minutes themselves serve as the primary forward guidance document. \nThe vote breakdown will be the most important signal for markets. A move towards a majority favouring cuts (e.g.\, 5-4 in favour of cutting) would strongly signal a November cut\, even if September produces a hold. Conversely\, if the hike dissent from April has spread to two members\, the market would reprice to remove cut expectations entirely and test sterling higher. \nRelated Events\n\nBank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June 18 decision is the most recent available reference point for current BoE policy stance.\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The US Fed’s June 16-17 decision and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting (immediately preceding BoE September) set the global rate context.\nECB Rate Decision June 2026 – The ECB’s trajectory influences UK-EU trade conditions and the broader European monetary policy environment that the BoE monitors.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the difference between a Monetary Policy Report meeting and a regular MPC meeting?\nAt Monetary Policy Report (MPR) meetings\, held in February\, May\, August\, and November\, the MPC publishes updated staff economic forecasts for UK inflation\, GDP\, and unemployment alongside the rate decision. These forecasts provide context for the rate decision and signal the MPC’s expected rate path. At non-MPR meetings (March\, June\, September\, December)\, only the decision\, summary\, and minutes are released\, without new forecasts. The August MPR\, immediately preceding September\, will have set the most recent forecast baseline. \nWhen will the Bank of England September 2026 decision be announced?\nThe MPC will publish its monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026. The monetary policy summary and minutes will be released simultaneously. September is not an MPR meeting\, so no updated staff economic projections will be published. \nHow does UK wage growth affect the MPC’s rate decisions?\nThe MPC monitors wage growth closely because it is a key determinant of services inflation\, the component of UK CPI most influenced by domestic price-setting. When wage growth runs significantly above productivity growth\, businesses face higher costs that often pass through into services prices\, making it difficult for overall CPI to return to the 2% target. The BoE’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report cited above-4% wage growth as a factor in its decision to hold\, and any sustained moderation in wage growth would be among the strongest signals that a cut is warranted. \nResults: Bank of England MPC Rate Decision\, September 17\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nBank Rate\nHold at 3.75% (Reuters poll)\nHeld at 3.75%\nHeld at 3.75% (July 30\, 2026)\n\n\nVote split\n6-3 hold expected\n6-3 (Pill\, Greene\, Mann voted to raise to 4%)\n6-3 (July 30\, 2026)\n\n\n2027 inflation peak forecast\nAround 3.2% (previous BoE forecast)\n“Slightly over 4%” in early 2027\nPeak of 3.2% (August Monetary Policy Report)\n\n\n\nThe Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting\, matching the median forecast from a Reuters poll of economists. The vote split of 6-3 was unchanged from July\, with Chief Economist Huw Pill and external members Megan Greene and Catherine Mann again voting for an immediate quarter-point rise to 4%. This matched the scenario most economists had flagged as the base case going into the meeting\, described in the preview as a continuation of the divided committee seen since April 2026. \nWhat changed was the tone\, not the vote. The BoE raised its estimate of third-quarter GDP growth to 0.4% from a previous 0.1%\, and revised its inflation forecast up\, saying UK CPI\, which stood at 3.1% in August\, could now reach “slightly over 4%” in early 2027\, above the previous forecast peak of 3.2%. The Bank also announced an unexpected pause of its active gilt sales for six months\, a move connected to the surge in long-dated gilt yields to their highest levels since 2007 in the weeks before the meeting. Governor Andrew Bailey and his deputies Sarah Breeden\, Clare Lombardelli and Dave Ramsden all raised\, for the first time\, the explicit prospect of a future rate increase in the minutes\, marking a shift from a committee previously split between cutters and holders towards one now weighing hikes. \nMarket Reaction\nSterling firmed modestly against the dollar and the euro immediately after the decision\, as traders interpreted the harder inflation language and the gilt sales pause as an early signal that the MPC’s next move is more likely to be a rate rise than a cut. Gilt yields\, which had already pushed above 5.2% at the 10-year point in the days before the meeting\, the highest since 2008\, remained elevated as the Bank’s pause on active sales reduced the near-term supply overhang. \nRate-sensitive parts of the UK equity market\, including housebuilders and real estate investment trusts\, softened on the day as markets pushed back expectations for any 2026 rate cut and began pricing a greater chance of tightening at the November 5 meeting\, which will carry a new Monetary Policy Report. Money markets\, according to reporting on the decision\, moved to reflect reduced odds of the four-cut path some investors had still been pricing for 2027\, focusing attention instead on whether the hawkish minority of three grows further before November. \nWhat this means for your money now\nMortgage borrowers on trackers or coming up for remortgage should not expect the cheaper rates some had hoped for later in 2026: the Bank’s harder line on inflation\, with a forecast peak of just over 4% in early 2027\, makes a near-term cut less likely and a rise more plausible if energy prices stay high. Savers benefit for longer from rates holding at 3.75%\, with little pressure on banks to cut deposit rates soon. Anyone with mortgages\, savings or investments exposed to sterling should watch the November 5 decision\, which comes with a full Monetary Policy Report and will show whether the three-strong hawkish minority has grown enough to tip the committee towards an actual hike.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/bank-of-england-mpc-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T093000
DTSTAMP:20260917T142345Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260917T142345Z
UID:1331-1789633800-1789637400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts): 1.275 million SAAR\, -2.6% MoM (single-family +7.6% to 918k\, multi-family -22.5% to 344k) (Thursday\, September 17\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\na consensus forecast for August 2026 has not yet been widely published as of this writing\nActual\n1.275 million SAAR\, -2.6% MoM (single-family +7.6% to 918k\, multi-family -22.5% to 344k)\n\nFull schedule and background: US Housing Starts. \nUpdated September 17\, 2026 \n\nUS housing starts fell 2.6% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million units in August 2026\, the Census Bureau reported on September 17\, 2026\, as a rebound in single-family construction was offset by a sharp drop in multi-family starts and building permits. \nEconomists have not yet converged on a widely published consensus for the August 2026 housing starts figure\, though forecasters are watching closely after July’s reading fell to 1.24 million annualised units\, well below the earlier consensus of 1.30 million\, according to TD Economics. With mortgage rates hovering near 6.7% and builder incentives still widespread\, most analysts expect August starts to remain soft\, likely in the low 1.2 million to 1.3 million range\, though this is not yet a formal survey figure. A surprise would be a sharp rebound above 1.4 million\, which would suggest builders are shrugging off high borrowing costs\, or a further slide below 1.2 million\, which would deepen concerns about the housing market’s contribution to broader economic growth. \n← Previous US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts)Next US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) →\nThe United States Census Bureau\, jointly with the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)\, will release New Residential Construction data for August 2026 on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report\, commonly known as the housing starts report\, covers the number of new privately owned housing units on which construction began during the reference month. Consensus forecasts for August 2026 will develop closer to the release date\, as major polling organisations typically publish estimates in the week prior to the report. \nWhat Is the Housing Starts Report?\nThe New Residential Construction report is a monthly joint release from the Census Bureau and HUD covering three key metrics: housing starts (units where construction began)\, building permits (authorisations for future construction)\, and housing completions (units finished during the month). Seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) are used to remove weather-related and other seasonal distortions\, enabling meaningful month-to-month comparisons. \nHousing starts are divided into two main segments: single-family homes and multi-family units (buildings with five or more units). Single-family starts reflect individual homebuyer demand and builder confidence\, while multi-family starts are heavily influenced by the rental market\, institutional investors\, and financing conditions. The data is released approximately 17 business days after the end of the survey month. \nHousing is a leading economic indicator. Construction activity ripples through dozens of related industries\, including building materials\, appliances\, landscaping\, and financial services\, meaning sustained changes in housing starts typically signal broader economic momentum or slowdown several months ahead. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) monitors residential construction data closely as part of its assessment of economic activity and inflationary pressure in the shelter component of consumer prices. \nHousing Starts Report: September 17\, 2026\nThe September 17 release will cover August 2026 construction activity. Consensus estimates from major financial institutions and polling services are not yet published\, as the report is more than three months away at the time of writing. Market expectations will be shaped by mortgage rate conditions\, builder sentiment surveys (particularly the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index)\, and the trend in building permits\, which serve as a forward indicator for starts. \nThe April 2026 report\, the most recent data available at the time of writing\, showed housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million units\, a decline of 2.8% from the revised March rate of 1.507 million. Within the April figure\, single-family starts fell 9% to 930\,000 units while multi-family starts jumped 14.3% to 529\,000 units\, according to the Census Bureau. Elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on single-family construction\, while demand for rental housing sustains multi-family activity. \nWhy This Report Matters\nHousing starts are a bellwether for consumer confidence and credit availability. When builders break ground on new homes\, it signals that demand is sufficient to justify the investment\, which in turn reflects household expectations about income\, employment\, and borrowing costs. A sustained decline in single-family starts typically precedes a slowdown in household goods spending\, as new homeowners are significant buyers of furniture\, appliances\, and home improvement products. \nFor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)\, housing data is a critical input. Shelter costs account for a substantial share of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)\, and new residential construction directly affects future rental and ownership supply. If starts remain suppressed\, shelter inflation is likely to stay elevated\, complicating the Fed’s path to its 2% inflation target. The timing of this release is particularly notable: the FOMC Rate Decision on September 16\, 2026\, falls just one day before\, meaning markets will be processing two major data points in rapid succession. \nFor equity markets\, housing starts influence the performance of homebuilders\, building materials companies\, mortgage lenders\, and home improvement retailers. For the bond market\, a stronger-than-expected reading implies continued inflationary pressure in shelter costs\, which could push yields modestly higher. A miss would have the opposite effect\, potentially reinforcing expectations for rate cuts. \nWhat to Watch For\nAnalysts will focus on several key metrics within the September 17 release: \n\nAbove consensus — A stronger-than-expected reading signals sustained builder confidence and healthy demand conditions. A recovery in single-family starts in particular would suggest buyers are returning despite elevated mortgage rates\, and could firm expectations for a longer high-rate environment\, modestly pressuring Treasury bonds.\nIn line with consensus — A matching result would reinforce current market pricing. Attention would shift to the building permits sub-component and any revisions to prior months’ figures\, which frequently move markets even when the headline is neutral.\nBelow consensus — A miss would signal that affordability constraints are weighing more heavily on builders. Single-family starts falling significantly would be the most market-moving scenario\, raising concerns about a broader housing slowdown. Bond yields could ease on expectations that weaker housing activity will dampen shelter inflation.\n\nBeyond the headline figure\, markets will watch: building permits (the most reliable forward indicator for starts over the following one to three months)\, the single-family versus multi-family split\, and any revisions to the prior two months. A sustained drop in permit issuance reliably forecasts lower starts in coming months and is frequently more market-moving than the headline itself. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nReference Month\nActual (SAAR)\nMoM Change\n\n\n\n\nMay 21\, 2026\nApril 2026\n1.465 million\n-2.8%\n\n\nApril 29\, 2026\nMarch 2026\n1.507 million\n+10.8%\n\n\nMarch 12\, 2026\nJanuary 2026\n1.487 million\n+7.2%\n\n\nFebruary 2026\nDecember 2025\n1.387 million\n—\n\n\n\nMarket Positioning\nAs of early June 2026\, housing starts are running above the long-run historical average of approximately 1.43 million units per year\, though well below the pre-financial-crisis peak of 2.49 million units reached in January 2006. The recent divergence between single-family and multi-family construction reflects two competing forces: mortgage rate headwinds suppressing owner-occupier demand\, and a structural undersupply of rental housing sustaining multi-family activity. \nBuilder sentiment\, as measured by the NAHB Housing Market Index\, will be published in the days before the September 17 release and may shape market expectations. Any meaningful shift in mortgage rates between now and August will significantly influence the eventual result. Futures markets will track how the report’s implications intersect with the US CPI Report September 2026\, given housing’s weight in the shelter component of consumer prices. \nRelated Events This Week\n\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 — The Fed’s September 16 rate decision directly sets the cost of mortgage finance and builder loans\, making it the critical context for interpreting housing starts one day later.\nUS CPI Report September 2026 — Inflation data released the week before will frame whether housing is providing or absorbing inflationary pressure in the shelter component.\nUS Retail Sales September 2026 — Retail sales data in the same week will complete the picture of consumer demand\, which drives both the need for housing and the spending that follows a home purchase.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the housing starts report measure?\nThe housing starts report\, formally titled New Residential Construction\, measures the number of new privately owned residential units where construction began during the reference month. Published jointly by the Census Bureau and HUD\, it includes both single-family homes and multi-family buildings. The headline figure is expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to allow meaningful comparison across months. \nWhen is the September 2026 housing starts report released?\nThe August 2026 housing starts data will be published on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report is typically released approximately 17 business days after the end of the survey month\, jointly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. \nHow do housing starts affect financial markets?\nA stronger-than-expected housing starts reading can push Treasury yields modestly higher\, as it implies continued shelter-driven inflation\, and tends to lift shares of homebuilders\, materials companies\, and home improvement retailers. A weaker reading has the opposite effect. The report’s greatest market-moving potential comes when it provides new information about the direction of shelter inflation\, which is a key variable for Federal Reserve policy. \nResults: US Housing Starts\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHousing starts (SAAR)\nNo widely published Reuters or Bloomberg consensus; Moody’s Analytics had forecast 1.283 million\n1.275 million\, -2.6% month-on-month\n1.309 million (July 2026\, revised up from 1.239 million originally reported)\n\n\nSingle-family starts\nNot separately forecast\n918\,000\, +7.6% month-on-month\, +5.2% year-on-year\n853\,000 (July\, revised)\n\n\nMulti-family starts (5+ units)\nNot separately forecast\n344\,000\, -22.5% month-on-month\n445\,000 approx (July\, implied)\n\n\nBuilding permits (SAAR)\nNot separately forecast\n1.394 million\, -2.7% month-on-month\n1.433 million (July\, revised)\n\n\n\nThe Census Bureau and HUD reported that privately-owned housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million units in August 2026\, down 2.6% from July’s upwardly revised estimate of 1.309 million and 1.2% below the August 2025 rate\, according to the US Census Bureau. The headline decline masked a sharp divergence between segments: single-family starts\, which make up the bulk of homebuilding\, rose 7.6% to 918\,000 units\, while multi-family starts in buildings of five or more units plunged 22.5% to 344\,000\, a volatile category prone to large monthly swings. \nThe July reading was revised substantially higher\, from an original 1.239 million to 1.309 million\, illustrating how much early estimates in this series can move. Building permits\, which point to construction activity in the coming months\, fell 2.7% to 1.394 million\, with single-family authorisations down 1.8% to 878\,000. Housing completions dropped 11.9% to 1.128 million\, well below the August 2025 pace\, a sign that the pipeline of finished homes is narrowing even as new single-family ground-breaking picked up. No formal Reuters or Bloomberg consensus was published for this release at the time of writing\, though Moody’s Analytics had pencilled in 1.283 million\, only marginally above the actual figure\, according to Moody’s Analytics. \nThe single-family rebound landed closer to the “in line with consensus” scenario flagged in the preview\, while the multi-family collapse and the fall in permits tilted the overall report toward the softer end of expectations\, consistent with builders responding to higher borrowing costs by pulling back on rental and apartment projects even as some single-family demand held up. \nMarket Reaction\nThe release landed alongside a separate NAHB builder sentiment survey showing confidence among single-family builders at a one-year low\, and against a backdrop of rising mortgage rates as US Treasury yields climbed on oil prices pushed above 100 dollars a barrel by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran\, according to Reuters. Homebuilder stocks and mortgage-sensitive shares were pressured more by the broader move in yields and oil than by the housing data itself\, which was viewed as a mixed\, not decisively weak\, print. \nBond markets continued to price rising mortgage rates as the dominant theme of the session\, with the drop in permits reinforcing expectations that the single-family rebound in starts is unlikely to be sustained if financing costs keep climbing. Investors are watching the next NAHB index and the following month’s permits figure for confirmation of whether August’s single-family pickup was a temporary bounce or the start of a more durable trend. \nWhat this means for your money now\nMortgage rates were already rising sharply on the day of this release because of the jump in oil prices and Treasury yields tied to the Middle East conflict\, not primarily because of the housing data itself\, so borrowers and prospective buyers should watch the broader rates story as much as this report. The fall in building permits and completions suggests the supply of new homes coming to market may tighten in the months ahead\, which could keep upward pressure on rents and home prices in areas where inventory is already thin. For anyone with savings tied to money market or short-term rates\, the housing report changes little on its own\, but it adds to the case that shelter costs\, and therefore inflation\, could stay stickier if higher mortgage rates choke off single-family building again in the coming months.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-new-residential-construction-housing-starts-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T093000
DTSTAMP:20260917T132200Z
CREATED:20260825T105218Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260917T132200Z
UID:2078-1789633800-1789637400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Initial Jobless Claims: September 17\, 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Initial Jobless Claims: 196\,000 initial claims (week ended Sept 12\, 2026)\, down 10\,000; continuing claims 1.73 million\, down 39\,000 (Thursday\, September 17\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nAround 205\,000 to 210\,000 new claims\nActual\n196\,000 initial claims (week ended Sept 12\, 2026)\, down 10\,000; continuing claims 1.73 million\, down 39\,000\n\nFull schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nUpdated September 17\, 2026 \n\nUS initial jobless claims fell 10\,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196\,000 for the week ended September 12\, 2026\, well below the 207\,000 to 208\,000 range economists had forecast and the lowest reading since July. \nEconomists have not published a firm consensus specific to this release\, but recent weeks have clustered close to 205\,000\, according to Trading Economics\, which reported claims easing to 206\,000 for the week ended September 6\, 2026\, near the roughly 60-year low of 189\,000 hit in mid-July. Analysts expect the labour market to stay resilient\, so a reading close to 205\,000 to 210\,000 would be unremarkable. A surprise would be a jump towards 230\,000 or higher\, which would revive concerns about a cooling jobs market and reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nThe US Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending September 13\, 2026 is due on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). It is published weekly by the US Department of Labor and counts the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits\, one of the timeliest signals available on the health of the American labour market. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of this preview\, a consensus forecast for the week ending September 13\, 2026 has not yet been published. Economist surveys for weekly claims are typically finalised only a day or two before release\, so the figure will firm up closer to September 17. \nThe most recently confirmed reading in this series was for the week ending August 15\, 2026: initial claims fell to 206\,000\, below the median forecast of 210\,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists\, and down from 212\,000 the previous week\, according to Bloomberg. Continuing claims\, which measure people still receiving benefits after an initial claim\, rose by 18\,000 to 1\,799\,000 in the week ending August 8\, 2026\, according to Trading Economics\, citing Department of Labor data. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (week ending Aug 15\, 2026)\nConsensus for Sept 13\, 2026 week\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n206\,000\nNot yet published\n\n\nContinuing claims\n1\,799\,000 (week ending Aug 8)\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nDovish for the Federal Reserve\, often weighs on the dollar and can lift bond prices\nMore people than expected filed for benefits\, a sign hiring may be cooling\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\nThe labour market is behaving broadly as expected\, no fresh signal for the Fed\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCan be read as hawkish\, supporting the dollar and pushing bond yields higher\nFewer people filed for benefits than expected\, pointing to continued labour market strength\n\n\n\nWhy it matters this week\nWeekly claims have stayed close to historically low levels through the summer of 2026\, with initial claims hovering in the 199\,000 to 212\,000 range and continuing claims edging up toward 1.8 million\, according to PNC Economics Research. That combination\, low new claims but a slowly rising pool of people still receiving benefits\, suggests employers are not laying off many workers but are taking longer to rehire those who lose a job. \nThe Federal Reserve watches this data closely because it arrives weekly\, far more often than the monthly jobs report\, giving policymakers an early read on whether the labour market is weakening. A sustained rise in claims would add to the case for further interest rate cuts\, while claims staying low would support the view that the US economy remains close to full employment. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nJobless claims feed directly into how investors think the Federal Reserve will move interest rates\, which in turn affects mortgage rates\, credit card costs and savings account yields in the United States. A run of higher-than-expected claims tends to push bond yields down and can nudge mortgage rates lower\, while unusually low claims can keep borrowing costs elevated for longer. \nFor anyone holding US shares\, US dollar cash\, or funds with American exposure\, from the UK\, Europe and Asia as much as from the US itself\, a weak claims report can weigh on the dollar and lift the pound and euro against it\, while a strong report tends to do the opposite. Pension savers with global equity funds will feel these swings indirectly through fund values rather than in a single headline number. \nNone of this is decisive on its own. Weekly claims are volatile and one release rarely changes the picture; it is the trend over several weeks that tends to matter for mortgage rates\, hiring plans and investment portfolios. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the September 17 jobless claims report released?\nIt is released at 8:30 am ET\, which is 1:30 pm in London\, by the US Department of Labor. \nWhat counts as a big miss versus consensus?\nBecause weekly claims are volatile\, economists generally treat a move of more than 15\,000 to 20\,000 away from consensus as notable enough to shift market expectations for the Federal Reserve. \nWhen is the next jobless claims report after this one?\nJobless claims are published every Thursday\, so the following report covering the week ending September 20\, 2026 is due on September 24\, 2026. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nResults: US Initial Jobless Claims\, week ended September 12\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n207\,000 to 208\,000\n196\,000\n206\,000 (week ended Sept 5\, 2026)\n\n\nContinuing claims\nNot separately forecast\n1\,730\,000\n1\,769\,000 (revised)\n\n\n\nInitial jobless claims fell 10\,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196\,000 in the week ended September 12\, 2026\, the lowest since July and well below the 207\,000 to 208\,000 range economists polled by Dow Jones and Reuters had forecast\, according to CNBC and Reuters. The Labor Department noted the week included the Labor Day holiday\, which can cause claims to swing more than usual\, so some of the drop may reflect seasonal noise rather than a fresh improvement in hiring. \nThis outcome landed at the low end of the scenarios set out in the preview: a reading below consensus\, which analysts had said would point to continued labour market strength rather than any cooling. Continuing claims\, which track people still receiving benefits after an initial claim\, dropped 39\,000 to 1.73 million\, a more than two-year low\, according to Bloomberg. That combination\, fewer new claims and fewer people still on benefit rolls\, is a firmer signal of labour market resilience than the single week’s initial claims figure on its own. \nThe report was released the same week that the same set of data covers the survey period for August’s nonfarm payrolls report\, and arrived a day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years\, a decision that had unsettled markets on September 16. \nMarket Reaction\nUS stock index futures extended Thursday’s rebound after the claims data\, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up around 619 points\, or 1.2%\, S&P 500 futures up 1.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures up 1.7%\, led by technology stocks including Nvidia\, Amazon and Microsoft\, according to CNBC. Treasury yields eased following the release\, with the 10-year yield slipping back below 5%\, as traders weighed the stronger-than-expected labour market signal against softer housing data released the same morning. \nBecause the report followed the Federal Reserve’s surprise rate rise a day earlier\, the reaction reflected both events rather than the claims data alone. A labour market that continues to run this tight gives the Fed less reason to reverse course quickly\, which markets are likely to keep watching for at the central bank’s next meeting. For investors in London\, Frankfurt and Tokyo\, the combination of a resilient US jobs market and higher US rates tends to support the dollar against the pound and euro over time\, though the immediate reaction on September 17 was dominated by relief that the labour market had not weakened further. \nWhat this means for your money now\nA jobless claims reading this low\, alongside a recent Fed rate rise\, points to borrowing costs in the US staying higher for longer rather than falling soon. For anyone with a mortgage\, savings account or pension fund tied to US assets\, this combination argues for higher-for-longer interest rates rather than the rate cuts some investors had been pricing in earlier in 2026. \nA resilient US labour market and a stronger dollar can make imports more expensive for UK and European households and businesses\, and can weigh on the value of pound or euro holdings when converted back from dollars. Investors with global pension or investment funds are likely to see this reflected gradually in fund values rather than as an immediate\, sharp swing.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-initial-jobless-claims-september-17-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T193000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T203000
DTSTAMP:20260918T123036Z
CREATED:20260826T033440Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260918T123036Z
UID:2265-1789673400-1789677000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Japan CPI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Japan CPI: Headline CPI +1.9% YoY (steady vs 1.9% prior)\, Core CPI ex fresh food +1.7% YoY (down from 1.8%\, below 1.8% consensus)\, Core-core CPI ex fresh food and energy +1.9% YoY (steady) (Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 8:30 am JST (7:30 pm ET\, 12:30 am London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\nHeadline CPI +1.9% YoY (steady vs 1.9% prior)\, Core CPI ex fresh food +1.7% YoY (down from 1.8%\, below 1.8% consensus)\, Core-core CPI ex fresh food and energy +1.9% YoY (steady)\n\nFull schedule and background: Japan CPI. \nUpdated September 18\, 2026 \n\nJapan’s headline consumer price index held steady at 1.9% year-on-year in August 2026\, while core inflation excluding fresh food eased to 1.7% from 1.8% in July\, coming in below the 1.8% consensus\, the Statistics Bureau reported on September 18\, 2026. \nA specific consensus forecast for the August 2026 Japan CPI reading has not yet been published by major polling services ahead of the September 18 release. The prior reading\, for July 2026\, showed headline inflation accelerate to 1.9% year-on-year according to Japan’s Statistics Bureau\, up from 1.6% in June. The Bank of Japan has warned that core inflation is likely to move to a level \nJapan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026 is scheduled for release on September 18\, 2026 at 8:30 am Japan Standard Time\, which is 7:30 pm ET on September 17 and 12:30 am London time on September 18. The figures are published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan and cover price changes for August 2026 compared with a year earlier. Full schedule and background: Japan CPI. \nWhat is Japan CPI?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from rice and electricity to rent and rail fares. It is the country’s main measure of inflation and is compiled monthly by the Statistics Bureau of Japan\, part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. \nThree versions of the index matter most to markets. The headline figure includes everything. “Core CPI” strips out fresh food\, which swings with weather and harvests\, to give a cleaner read on underlying price trends. A further measure\, sometimes called “core-core” CPI\, also excludes energy\, isolating price pressure that has little to do with volatile oil and gas costs. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) watches the core (ex fresh food) figure most closely when setting interest rates. \nInvestors\, currency traders and the BOJ itself use the release to judge whether inflation is settling near the central bank’s 2% target on a durable basis\, or whether it is being driven by temporary factors such as import costs or subsidy changes. Because Japan spent decades battling deflation\, sustained inflation above target is treated as a genuinely significant shift\, not routine noise. \nWhen is the August Japan CPI released?\nThe Statistics Bureau of Japan will publish the August 2026 CPI report on Friday\, September 18\, 2026\, at 8:30 am local time. The data appears on the bureau’s official website. For readers outside Japan\, that is 7:30 pm Eastern Time the previous evening (September 17) and 12:30 am in London on September 18\, so European and American markets react to the numbers overnight or first thing the next morning depending on their time zone. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 report has not yet been published. Economist surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg typically appear only in the days immediately before release. The most recent published data is for July 2026\, when the Statistics Bureau reported headline CPI at 1.9% year-on-year and core CPI (ex fresh food) at 1.8% year-on-year\, both up from June\, according to Investing.com. The core-core measure\, which excludes fresh food and energy\, rose to 1.9% year-on-year in July\, according to Trading Economics. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (YoY)\n1.9%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore CPI\, ex fresh food (YoY)\n1.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore-core CPI\, ex fresh food and energy (YoY)\n1.9%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nYen could strengthen and Japanese government bond yields could rise if traders see this as supporting further Bank of Japan rate hikes\nPrices are rising faster than expected\, adding pressure on the BOJ to keep tightening policy\, which can make borrowing costlier at home but may attract investors seeking higher Japanese yields\n\n\nIn line with prior trend\nMuted reaction\, as this would confirm the gradual pickup in inflation seen since spring\, described by Trading Economics as broadening price pressure\nInflation is behaving roughly as expected\, so the BOJ is unlikely to change its cautious\, gradual approach to rate decisions\n\n\nBelow consensus\nYen could soften if markets read this as reducing the urgency for the BOJ to raise rates further\nPrice growth is cooling\, which could ease pressure on household budgets but may also signal weaker demand in the economy\n\n\n\nThese are possible market reactions based on how similar releases have been discussed by analysts\, not predictions of what will happen in September. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nJapanese inflation has been gradually accelerating through 2026. Core CPI eased to around 1.6% in the spring before picking up to 1.8% in July\, according to data reported by FX.co. Trading Economics attributed part of the July acceleration to higher energy\, food\, and household goods costs\, with government fuel subsidies gradually being scaled back and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding pressure to import costs. \nThe Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points (a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point) in June 2026 to its highest level since 1995\, according to Trading Economics\, its first hike since the previous December. Inflation remaining close to\, but still below\, the BOJ’s 2% target keeps the central bank in a delicate position: too little inflation risks a return to the deflationary pressures Japan battled for decades\, while too much risks squeezing households and businesses that have grown used to low borrowing costs. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nMortgages and borrowing: most Japanese mortgages are variable rate\, so a BOJ that keeps raising interest rates in response to persistent inflation could gradually push up monthly repayments for homeowners in Japan. \nSavings: higher policy rates tend to filter through slowly to Japanese savings accounts\, which have offered near-zero returns for years\, so any further tightening could finally bring modestly better returns for savers. \nJobs and wages: sustained inflation increases pressure on Japanese employers to raise wages to keep pace with living costs\, a dynamic the BOJ is watching closely as a sign that inflation is becoming self-sustaining rather than temporary. \nPrices: higher CPI readings mean everyday costs\, from groceries to utility bills\, are rising faster for households in Japan\, directly affecting spending power. \nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: a firmer yen driven by BOJ rate expectations can affect returns for international investors holding Japanese assets\, while UK\, European and Asian exporters that sell into Japan or compete with Japanese firms watch the yen’s direction closely\, since a stronger yen makes Japanese exports pricier and imports into Japan cheaper. \nRelated events\n\nBank of Japan interest rate decisions\, which respond directly to CPI trends\nTokyo CPI\, a preliminary read on national inflation published roughly three weeks before the national figure\nUS and eurozone inflation releases\, which shape the broader global backdrop against which the yen and other currencies trade\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Japan CPI report released?\nThe Statistics Bureau of Japan releases the CPI at 8:30 am Japan Standard Time\, which is 7:30 pm ET the previous day and 12:30 am in London. \nHow should I read the headline versus core CPI figures?\nHeadline CPI includes all items\, while core CPI excludes fresh food (and sometimes energy too) to show the underlying inflation trend that the Bank of Japan focuses on for policy decisions. \nHow does Japan CPI affect interest rates?\nPersistently high core CPI readings increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate further\, while weaker readings reduce that pressure. \nWhere can I find the official Japan CPI release?\nThe data is published on the Statistics Bureau of Japan’s official CPI page. \nWhen is the next Japan CPI report due?\nThe following month’s CPI report\, covering September 2026 data\, is typically published in the second half of October\, following the Statistics Bureau’s usual release pattern. \nResults: Japan CPI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (YoY)\nNot published\n1.9%\n1.9% (July 2026)\n\n\nCore CPI\, ex fresh food (YoY)\n1.8%\n1.7%\n1.8% (July 2026)\n\n\nCore-core CPI\, ex fresh food and energy (YoY)\nNot published\n1.9%\n1.9% (July 2026)\n\n\n\nJapan’s Statistics Bureau reported on September 18\, 2026 that headline CPI held steady at 1.9% year-on-year in August\, while the closely watched core measure\, which excludes fresh food\, eased to 1.7%\, a touch below the 1.8% level economists had expected and down from July’s 1.8%. This was the first slowdown in core inflation in four months. The Statistics Bureau and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications attributed the softer core reading largely to government subsidies on utilities and fuel offsetting steady gains in food and discretionary spending\, according to The Japan Times and Investing.com. \nThe August data landed hours before the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on the same day\, and the readings mattered directly for that meeting. Capital Economics told Investing.com that inflation was little changed in August but that mounting energy cost pressures point to core inflation rising above the BOJ’s 2% target before long. The print broadly matched the “in line with the prior trend” scenario outlined ahead of release\, rather than a sharp acceleration or deceleration. \nMarket Reaction\nJapanese asset prices reacted in an unusual way once the CPI figures were followed by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%\, the highest level since 1995. Rather than strengthening on higher rates\, the yen weakened past 157 against the dollar\, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond slipped around 4.9 basis points to 2.947%\, according to CNBC. The Nikkei 225 gained between 1.5% and 2.1% over the session\, extending gains after the rate decision\, according to Investing.com. \nAnalysts pointed to two dissenting votes on the nine-member BOJ board\, from members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato\, and the absence of updated economic forecasts\, as reasons markets treated the hike as less hawkish than the headline rate move suggested\, according to CNBC. Attention now turns to whether a further hike arrives around December\, with the widening gap between US and Japanese interest rates continuing to weigh on the yen. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe softer core inflation print\, alongside a rate hike that still left the yen weaker rather than stronger\, means the near-term outlook for UK\, European and Asian holders of yen-denominated assets or Japanese exporters has not changed dramatically. A weaker yen continues to make Japanese exports more competitive globally and imports into Japan more expensive\, while Japanese borrowers face a gradually rising cost of credit as the BOJ’s policy rate climbs toward its highest level in three decades.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/japan-cpi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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