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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T020000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T030000
DTSTAMP:20260916T123143Z
CREATED:20260825T130401Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260916T123143Z
UID:2169-1789524000-1789527600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:UK CPI Inflation September 2026
DESCRIPTION:UK CPI Inflation: 3.1% YoY headline (up from 2.9%)\, core 2.6% YoY (unchanged)\, CPIH 3.3% YoY (Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\na consensus forecast has not yet been published for the August 2026 data\nActual\n3.1% YoY headline (up from 2.9%)\, core 2.6% YoY (unchanged)\, CPIH 3.3% YoY\n\nFull schedule and background: UK CPI Inflation. \nUpdated September 16\, 2026 \n\nUK headline CPI inflation accelerated to 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026\, matching the consensus forecast and up from 2.9% in July\, the Office for National Statistics reported on September 16\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 CPI reading has not yet been published ahead of the September 16\, 2026 release. The prior reading\, for July 2026\, showed headline inflation at 2.9%\, up from 2.6% in June\, matching the market forecast at the time and driven largely by higher household energy costs following a rise in Ofgem’s price cap\, according to Trading Economics. The Bank of England’s August projections pointed to inflation peaking near 3.2% in the final quarter of 2026\, so a surprise would be a reading that pushes materially above or below that path\, altering expectations for when the Bank might next move interest rates. \nThe Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August 2026 on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time\, 2:00 am ET). The release is the single most important UK inflation reading of the month and lands one day before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is next scheduled to meet. Full background and the release schedule are on the UK CPI Inflation hub. \nWhat is the UK CPI report?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by UK households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from groceries and fuel to rent\, clothing and haircuts. The ONS collects tens of thousands of prices each month from shops\, websites and service providers\, weights them by how much a typical household spends on each category\, and calculates how much that basket has risen or fallen compared with the same month a year earlier (the “12-month rate”\, commonly called the annual inflation rate). \nAlongside headline CPI\, the ONS publishes core CPI\, which strips out the most volatile items\, energy\, food\, alcohol and tobacco\, to show the underlying trend in prices. It also breaks the data into goods inflation and services inflation. The Bank of England watches services inflation particularly closely because it tends to move with domestic wage growth and is harder to shift with interest rates than volatile energy or food prices. \nMarkets watch CPI because it is the main gauge the Bank of England uses to judge whether interest rates need to rise\, fall or hold steady. A hotter than expected reading tends to push up UK gilt yields and the pound\, on the view that rates will stay higher for longer\, while a cooler reading can do the opposite. \nWhen is the August 2026 CPI report released?\nThe ONS will publish the Consumer price inflation\, UK: August 2026 bulletin on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time\, which is 2:00 am ET). The bulletin is released on the ONS website and covers price changes recorded during August 2026. The ONS normally issues CPI data around the middle of each month for the previous month\, and no change to this pattern has been flagged for the August release. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of the time of writing\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 CPI report has not yet been published. City economists and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically publish their median forecasts in the days immediately before a release\, once August’s energy price moves and other inputs are clearer. Check back closer to September 16\, 2026 for an updated forecast. \nThe most recent published reading is for July 2026. Headline CPI rose to 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026\, up from 2.6% in June\, according to the ONS. That increase was the first rise in the annual rate since March 2026 and was driven largely by a jump in gas and electricity prices following an Ofgem price cap increase on July 1. Core CPI\, which excludes energy\, food\, alcohol and tobacco\, held at 2.6% in July\, unchanged from June\, while services inflation eased slightly to 3.4% from 3.6%. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (annual)\n2.9%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore CPI (annual)\n2.6%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nRecent UK CPI readings\n\n\n\nMonth\nHeadline CPI (annual)\nCore CPI (annual)\n\n\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n3.0%\n3.2%\n\n\nMarch 2026\n3.3%\n3.1%\n\n\nApril 2026\n2.8%\n2.5%\n\n\nMay 2026\n2.8%\n2.6%\n\n\nJune 2026\n2.6%\n2.6%\n\n\nJuly 2026\n2.9%\n2.6%\n\n\n\nSource: ONS Consumer price inflation bulletins\, February to July 2026. \nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nGilt yields and the pound could rise as traders price a longer wait for interest rate cuts\, or even a renewed chance of a rate rise\nPrices are climbing faster than expected\, which squeezes household budgets and makes the Bank of England more cautious about cutting borrowing costs\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nA limited market reaction is likely\, since the number would simply confirm what investors already expect\nInflation is behaving broadly as forecast\, so mortgage rates and savings rates are unlikely to move sharply on the data alone\n\n\nBelow consensus\nGilt yields and the pound could fall as markets bring forward expectations for interest rate cuts\nPrice pressure is easing faster than expected\, which could eventually feed through to cheaper borrowing\, though not immediately\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities based on how markets have historically reacted to inflation surprises\, not predictions of what will happen on September 16\, 2026. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nUK inflation has been drifting away from the Bank of England’s 2% target rather than towards it. After falling to a 15-month low of 2.6% in June 2026\, headline CPI rose to 2.9% in July\, and the Bank has projected inflation could peak near 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026\, according to commentary reported by Babypips. A second increase to the Ofgem household energy price cap is expected in October 2026\, which could add further upward pressure to the readings that follow the August data. \nThe MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% at its July 30\, 2026 meeting\, but the vote was split\, with three of the nine members pushing for an immediate rise to 4.0% because of concerns that higher energy costs could spread into wider prices\, according to the same reporting. The committee’s next scheduled decision falls on September 17\, 2026\, the day after this CPI release\, so the August print will be one of the last major data points policymakers see before that vote. HM Treasury’s August 2026 forecast round\, cited by the Building Cost Information Service\, pencilled in CPI inflation averaging 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 before easing back towards target through 2027. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nMortgages and borrowing: If inflation surprises to the upside\, lenders may hold fixed mortgage rates higher for longer\, since money markets would price a slower path of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. A softer print could feed through to slightly cheaper new fixed-rate deals over time\, though rarely overnight. \nSavings: Higher than expected inflation erodes the real value of cash sitting in savings accounts unless the interest rate paid keeps pace. Savers comparing accounts should check whether their rate beats the latest CPI figure\, not just the interest rate itself. \nJobs and wages: The Bank of England watches whether pay growth is running ahead of or behind inflation. If prices rise faster than wages\, household spending power falls even if pay packets are growing in cash terms. \nPrices in everyday life: The report explains why a weekly shop\, energy bill or bus fare feels more or less expensive than a year ago. Energy costs have been the largest single driver of the recent increase in UK inflation. \nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: UK gilts\, the FTSE 100 and the pound can all move on the data\, with knock-on effects for pension funds holding UK bonds. A stronger or weaker pound also changes the cost of imports for UK shoppers and affects how far sterling stretches for anyone travelling to the eurozone or the United States. Investors in Europe and Asia watch UK inflation partly because it shapes expectations for other central banks navigating similar energy-driven price pressures. \nRelated events\n\nBank of England MPC interest rate decision\, scheduled for September 17\, 2026\, the day after this CPI release.\nUK labour market and average earnings statistics\, published monthly by the ONS alongside CPI as part of the same data cycle.\nUS CPI report\, published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics\, which shapes the global inflation backdrop alongside the UK figures.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August 2026 UK CPI report released?\nThe ONS publishes the report at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time) on September 16\, 2026\, which is 2:00 am ET. \nHow should I read the headline CPI figure?\nThe headline figure shows how much prices for a typical household basket have risen over the past 12 months. A higher number means the cost of living is rising faster; a lower number means it is rising more slowly\, not that prices are falling outright unless the figure turns negative. \nHow does the CPI report affect UK interest rates?\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses CPI data as one of its main inputs when deciding whether to raise\, cut or hold Bank Rate\, currently held at 3.75% as of the July 30\, 2026 decision. A CPI reading that runs hotter than the Bank expects can reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe bulletin is published on the ONS release calendar and in the Consumer price inflation series on the ONS website. \nWhen is the next UK CPI report after this one?\nThe ONS publishes CPI data monthly\, so the September 2026 report covering that month’s prices is expected in mid-October 2026\, following the usual publication pattern. \nResults: UK CPI Inflation\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (annual)\n3.1%\n3.1%\n2.9% (July 2026)\n\n\nCore CPI (annual)\nNot separately forecast\n2.6%\n2.6% (July 2026)\n\n\nCPIH (annual)\nNot separately forecast\n3.3%\n3.1% (July 2026)\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI rose to 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026\, up from 2.9% in July and the highest reading since March 2026\, according to the ONS bulletin. The result matched the median forecast in a Reuters poll\, so it landed on the “in line with consensus” scenario set out in the preview above rather than surprising in either direction. On a monthly basis\, CPI rose 0.5% in August\, compared with a 0.3% rise in August 2025. \nThe increase was driven mainly by transport costs\, with motor fuel prices climbing sharply\, Reuters reported\, citing the ONS. Core CPI\, which strips out energy\, food\, alcohol and tobacco\, held steady at 2.6% for a second straight month\, offering the Bank of England some reassurance that the pickup in headline inflation was concentrated in volatile energy-linked costs rather than broadening across the economy. CPI goods inflation rose from 2.2% to 2.7% while services inflation was unchanged at 3.4%\, the ONS said. \nThis was the first CPI reading above 3% since March 2026\, arriving one day ahead of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decision on September 17\, 2026\, making it one of the last significant data points policymakers saw before that vote. \nMarket Reaction\nThe 10-year gilt yield eased slightly to around 5.38%\, while the more policy-sensitive two-year gilt yield moved on updated expectations for the following day’s Bank of England decision\, according to the Irish Times. Because the print matched the consensus forecast\, the immediate market reaction was contained relative to what a genuine surprise would have produced\, though the acceleration to a five-month high kept alive market chatter about a possible Bank Rate increase rather than a cut at the MPC’s September 17 meeting. \nSterling traders and eurozone and Asian observers watching UK rate expectations noted that Britain’s economy grew faster than any other G7 economy in the first half of 2026\, a backdrop that Reuters said could add to inflation pressure and reinforce the case for the Bank to stay cautious rather than ease policy. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe in-line reading leaves the near-term outlook largely unchanged from the pre-release picture: mortgage lenders are unlikely to move fixed rates sharply on this data alone\, and savers should still compare their account rate against the 3.1% headline figure to judge whether their cash is losing real value. Anyone with a Bank of England decision-sensitive mortgage or savings product should watch the September 17\, 2026 MPC announcement\, released the following day\, for the more consequential signal on where borrowing costs go next.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/uk-cpi-inflation-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T093000
DTSTAMP:20260916T162252Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260916T162252Z
UID:1318-1789547400-1789551000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Retail Sales September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE): +1.2% MoM (control group +1.4%)\, vs 0.8% consensus (Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\na consensus forecast has not yet been published for the August 2026 report\nActual\n+1.2% MoM (control group +1.4%)\, vs 0.8% consensus\n\nFull schedule and background: US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE). \nUpdated September 16\, 2026 \n\nUS retail sales rose 1.2% month-on-month in August 2026\, comfortably beating the 0.8% gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters\, according to data published by the US Census Bureau on September 16\, 2026. \nEconomists have not yet finalised a consensus forecast for the August 2026 retail sales report\, though early estimates are likely to reflect on July’s surprise 0.6% monthly decline\, reported by the US Census Bureau\, which missed expectations of a 0.1% rise\, according to Trading Economics. A repeat of July’s weakness\, or a downward revision to control group sales\, would be read as a surprise pointing to a softening consumer\, while a rebound above 0.3% would ease concerns that spending is losing momentum heading into the autumn. \n← Previous US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE)Next US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) →\nThe US Census Bureau will publish the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report for August 2026 on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The release will provide the first official estimate of consumer spending at retail establishments across the United States for the August 2026 reference month. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nWednesday\, September 16\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\n8:30 AM ET\n\n\nPublished By\nUS Census Bureau\n\n\nReference Month\nAugust 2026\n\n\nPrior Reading (April 2026)\n+0.5% MoM ($757.1bn)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh\n\n\n\nWhat Is the US Retail Sales Report?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services\, commonly called the retail sales report\, is the US Census Bureau’s early estimate of total receipts at stores selling merchandise and at food services establishments. It covers more than 5\,000 firms selected to represent approximately 3 million retail establishments across the country. The advance release comes approximately two weeks after the reference month ends\, making it one of the most timely measures of consumer spending available to economists and policymakers. \nThe report is published monthly and covers total retail sales\, sales excluding motor vehicles (which are volatile month to month)\, and sales excluding motor vehicles and petrol. The “control group” measure\, which strips out vehicles\, petrol\, building materials\, and food services\, feeds directly into the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculation of personal consumption expenditures (PCE)\, a key input to GDP. For this reason\, the retail sales control group figure often receives as much attention as the headline number. \nConsumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP\, so retail sales data carries outsized weight in economic assessments. A sustained run of strong readings supports the case for a resilient economy and limits the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) scope to cut rates. Weak readings\, by contrast\, can raise recession concerns and shift rate expectations decisively lower. \nUS Retail Sales Release: September 16\, 2026\nThe September 16 release will deliver the first look at retail spending in August 2026. The most recent available data shows April 2026 retail sales at $757.1 billion (USD)\, an increase of 0.5% from March\, itself up 1.6% from February. Year-on-year\, April spending rose 4.9%\, reflecting still-healthy consumer demand despite tariff-driven price pressures. E-commerce sales continue to grow at a faster pace than in-store purchases\, and the grocery sector has absorbed significant food price inflation that has lifted headline dollar values without necessarily indicating volume growth. \nNo formal market consensus forecast for August 2026 retail sales is yet available\, given that the release remains approximately three months away. As consensus estimates from Reuters\, Bloomberg\, and other polling organisations become available in the weeks before the September 16 release\, they will reflect summer spending patterns\, back-to-school purchasing\, and any shifts in petrol prices. The US Retail Sales August 2026 release on August 14 will offer a more immediate benchmark and is likely to shape expectations for the subsequent September reading. \nWhy This Retail Sales Release Matters\nThe September 16 data will arrive just two days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day meeting scheduled to conclude on September 17 (with the rate decision released on September 16 separately via the FOMC Rate Decision September 2026). This proximity makes the September retail sales release particularly sensitive: a strong reading could reinforce the case for steady rates\, while a soft reading might tip sentiment toward a cut. \nThe report will also arrive in the context of an economy navigating a complex environment. Tariff-related price increases\, particularly on goods imported from major trading partners\, have shifted some consumer behaviour toward domestic alternatives and reduced discretionary spending in certain categories. At the same time\, a still-solid labour market has kept incomes supported\, providing purchasing power even as real wages face pressure from elevated goods inflation. The interaction of these forces will be visible in the August spending data. \nFor equity markets\, retail sales data moves shares of consumer-facing companies most directly: large retailers\, restaurant chains\, and e-commerce platforms. A strong reading could lift the consumer discretionary sector\, while a disappointing figure tends to weigh on shares of companies dependent on household spending confidence. The bond market will also react\, with strong retail data typically pushing Treasury yields higher as investors reduce expectations for rate cuts. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove consensus: A reading above the market forecast would signal that US consumers remain resilient into the late summer months\, supporting the case for the Fed to hold rates steady or extend any pause in cutting. Consumer discretionary equities are likely to react positively\, and the US dollar could strengthen against major peers.\nIn line with consensus: A broadly as-expected reading would confirm stable spending patterns and be unlikely to move markets materially. The focus would shift quickly to the retail sales control group for signals about Q3 GDP momentum.\nBelow consensus: A weaker-than-expected reading\, particularly if also accompanied by downward revisions to prior months\, would raise concern about the consumer’s ability to sustain spending in a high-tariff\, high-cost environment. Markets may price in additional Fed easing\, pushing Treasury yields lower and pressuring the US dollar.\n\nBeyond the headline\, watch for the control group measure\, the exclusion of petrol from total sales (to assess underlying demand stripped of energy price effects)\, and any revisions to July 2026 data that may alter the sequential momentum narrative. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nMoM Change\nYoY Change\n\n\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n–\n–\n\n\nMarch 2026\n+1.6%\n–\n\n\nApril 2026\n+0.5%\n+4.9%\n\n\nMay 2026\nTBC\nTBC\n\n\nJune 2026\nTBC (released July 17)\n–\n\n\nAugust 2026\nTBC (released September 16)\n–\n\n\n\nSource: US Census Bureau. Monthly retail and food services data\, seasonally adjusted. Complete monthly series for 2025-2026 will be updated as Census publishes each advance release. \nMarket Positioning\nIn the weeks before the September 16 release\, markets will be closely monitoring the US Retail Sales August 2026 release on August 14 as a proxy for the trend. If August data is strong\, analysts will revise their September forecasts upward. If August surprises to the downside\, the September expectation bar will be lowered accordingly. \nConsumer confidence surveys\, credit card spending data from payment processors\, and quarterly earnings guidance from major retailers will all inform the market’s prior for September. Walmart’s Q2 FY2027 earnings (due August 20) and other major retail corporate reports through August will give investors a real-time sense of spending trends ahead of the Census Bureau’s official release. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Retail Sales August 2026 – Released August 14\, the August report will set the trajectory for September spending expectations.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Fed’s September meeting will incorporate August and September spending data as part of its assessment of economic conditions.\nUS CPI Report September 2026 – The September 11 CPI release will accompany the retail sales report as a joint read on consumer conditions in August.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the US retail sales report measure?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services measures total receipts at retail establishments and food services businesses across the United States. It covers over 3 million retail outlets\, sampled through approximately 5\,000 firms. The report provides the earliest read on consumer spending for the reference month and is used to estimate personal consumption in GDP calculations. \nWhen is the US Retail Sales report for August 2026 released?\nThe US Census Bureau will release the Advance Monthly Retail Sales report for August 2026 on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The report is available on the Census Bureau website at census.gov/retail immediately following release. \nWhy do markets react so strongly to retail sales data?\nConsumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of US GDP. Retail sales data is the most timely monthly measure of that spending\, arriving just two weeks after the reference month ends. Because it directly signals whether consumers are confident and have purchasing power\, it shapes expectations for economic growth\, corporate earnings\, and Federal Reserve policy simultaneously. \nResults: US Retail Sales\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline retail sales\, MoM\n+0.8%\n+1.2%\n-0.5% (revised)\n\n\nControl group (ex-autos\, petrol\, building materials\, food services)\nNot separately polled\n+1.4%\n-0.4% (revised)\n\n\n\nUS retail sales rose 1.2% month-on-month in August 2026\, well ahead of the 0.8% gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters\, according to data published by the US Census Bureau on September 16\, 2026. It was the strongest monthly advance in five months and followed a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in July\, itself the first monthly drop in nine months\, according to Traders Agency\, citing Reuters. \nThe control group measure\, which strips out autos\, petrol\, building materials and food services and feeds directly into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s personal consumption expenditures calculation\, jumped 1.4% after an unrevised 0.4% decline in July. That reading points to genuine strength in underlying household demand rather than simply a rebound in volatile categories. This is the “above consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: a reading well above forecast\, reinforcing the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady rather than cut\, and supportive for consumer-facing equities. \nPart of the headline strength reflected higher petrol prices rather than pure volume growth: sales at petrol stations jumped 3.1% in August as conflict in the Middle East pushed pump prices higher\, according to CNN Business. Even stripping out autos and petrol\, however\, sales were still up a robust 1.1%\, indicating the strength was broad rather than concentrated in energy-related spending. \nMarket Reaction\nThe release landed on the same day as the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate decision\, which complicates a clean read on the market’s response to the data alone. Treasury yields were already elevated into the report\, with the broader move in yields this year driven mainly by inflation concerns and a hawkish tone from Fed officials at the August Jackson Hole symposium\, according to CNN Business. Equity indices had fallen in six of the seven trading sessions before the release\, a decline CNN attributed largely to nerves around the Fed meeting and rising oil prices rather than the retail sales print itself. \nA retail sales beat of this size\, on past form\, tends to reduce near-term expectations for rate cuts by reinforcing the picture of a resilient consumer\, and to support the dollar and consumer discretionary shares. Given the coincidence with the FOMC decision the same afternoon\, any immediate market moves attributable specifically to the retail sales data were largely absorbed into the broader reaction to the Fed’s announcement. \nWhat this means for your money now\nA stronger-than-expected retail sales report\, on its own\, tends to argue against near-term interest rate cuts\, which would keep mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher for longer and support savings account yields. Higher petrol prices embedded in the August figure also mean some of the reported spending growth reflects paying more at the pump rather than buying more\, a distinction worth remembering when comparing household budgets to the headline number. \nBecause the report arrived alongside the Fed’s own rate decision\, the more direct read-through for mortgages\, savings and currency markets comes from that decision itself rather than the retail sales figure in isolation.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-retail-sales-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T140000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T150000
DTSTAMP:20260916T182532Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260916T182532Z
UID:1224-1789567200-1789570800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:FOMC Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:FOMC Rate Decision: Raised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% (first hike in three years) (Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nMarket-implied odds of a 25bp hike\, not a cut\, have risen sharply and stood at around 83-85% as of mid-September 2026\, according to CME FedWatch-based trackers\nActual\nRaised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% (first hike in three years)\n\nFull schedule and background: FOMC Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 16\, 2026 \n\nThe Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16\, 2026\, its first rate increase in three years and a move widely anticipated after market-implied odds of a hike had climbed to around 83-85% beforehand. \nMarket pricing for the September 16\, 2026 FOMC decision has shifted unusually\, with traders now leaning towards a rate rise rather than a cut. According to Yahoo Finance\, odds of a 25 basis point hike tracked by the CME FedWatch tool reached nearly 56% after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh\, and a separate tracker at growbeansprout.com put hike odds at 85.5% by September 12\, 2026. Centralbank.watch similarly showed 83% odds of a hike. This follows a period of swinging expectations\, with emergencyfundcalculator.com noting odds moved from roughly 62% in early August to 30-40% after a weak jobs report. A surprise would be a hold or a cut against this hawkish market positioning. \n← Previous FOMC Rate DecisionNext FOMC Rate Decision →\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 2:00 p.m. EDT\, following a two-day meeting on September 15-16. This is a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting\, meaning the FOMC will simultaneously release updated quarterly economic forecasts and the “dot plot” of individual member rate expectations. The September meeting is historically one of the most anticipated of the year\, as it falls midway through the third quarter and provides the first full picture of how the Fed has revised its outlook for growth\, inflation\, and the rate path heading into year-end. The federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%\, held through multiple meetings in 2026 as the FOMC navigates elevated inflation and a resilient labour market. \nThe Federal Reserve and the FOMC\nThe Federal Open Market Committee is the monetary policy-setting body of the Federal Reserve (the Fed). It meets eight times per year\, with four of those meetings producing a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot: March\, June\, September\, and December. The September meeting is a pivotal one in the annual calendar. It comes after the summer data flow\, covering Q2 GDP and July-August inflation and employment readings\, and it sets up the final two meetings of the year (October and December). It is at September meetings that the Fed has historically made some of its most significant policy pivots\, as the committee can draw on a full half-year of data to assess whether the pace of disinflation or growth slowdown warrants action. \nThe FOMC’s dual mandate is maximum employment and price stability. The Fed targets headline PCE inflation at 2% over the longer run\, and the September SEP will include updated projections for PCE and core PCE inflation\, real GDP growth\, unemployment\, and the federal funds rate path. These projections are the closest thing the Fed publishes to a formal policy commitment\, though they are not binding and can be revised at subsequent meetings. \nFOMC September Meeting: September 15-16\, 2026\nThe September 2026 meeting is one of the most consequential of the year. By September\, the committee will have data through August 2026 for all major indicators: CPI\, PCE\, NFP\, retail sales\, and GDP (including the Q2 2026 advance estimate due in late July). This rich data set will allow the FOMC to make an informed decision about whether the inflation trajectory and economic growth have evolved sufficiently to justify either a rate cut or a continued hold. \nThe March 2026 SEP\, the most recent available at the time of writing\, indicated just one rate cut expected in all of 2026. If the June and September SEPs maintain or shift this projection\, markets will adjust their rate expectations accordingly. A September SEP that shows two cuts now expected in 2026 (implying one at either September or a later meeting) would be interpreted as a dovish shift\, likely boosting equities and Treasuries. A SEP with zero expected cuts in 2026 would be hawkish and push yields higher. The decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT\, with Fed Chair Powell’s press conference beginning at 2:30 p.m. EDT. \nWhat to Expect\nWhether the FOMC cuts\, holds\, or hikes at September 2026 depends on a data flow that has not yet occurred. The key variables are the trajectory of core PCE inflation\, the strength of the labour market\, and GDP growth in Q2 2026. If core PCE has moderated towards 2.2-2.3% by September\, and NFP has shown a clear cooling trend\, the September meeting becomes a live candidate for the first rate cut since December 2025. If core PCE remains above 2.5% and the labour market stays tight\, another hold is the base case. \nGeopolitical factors\, particularly the Middle East energy price shock of 2026\, will have had time to either recede or intensify by September. The Fed’s ability to look through temporary energy-driven inflation (while cutting on the basis of contained core inflation) depends on inflation expectations remaining anchored\, which the FOMC monitors through breakeven inflation rates and consumer/business surveys. The FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 on June 17 and the July 28-29 meeting will both set important precedents for how September is interpreted. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate (Target Range)\nVote\n\n\n\n\nSep 2025\n-25bp\n4.00%-4.25%\nn/v\n\n\nNov 2025\n-25bp\n3.75%-4.00%\nn/v\n\n\nDec 2025\n-25bp\n3.50%-3.75%\n9-3\n\n\nJan 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nMar 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nApr 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\n8-4\n\n\nJun 2026\nTBD (Jun 16-17\, SEP)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nJul 2026\nTBD (Jul 28-29)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\n\nSources: Federal Reserve Board; CNBC; J.P. Morgan. “n/v” = vote not yet verified. All rates are the federal funds target range. SEP = Summary of Economic Projections meeting. \nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nHold with dovish dot plot – A hold at 3.50%-3.75% accompanied by a dot plot shifting to show two cuts in 2026 (implying a December cut) would be interpreted as a near-cut signal. Treasury yields would fall\, equities would rally\, and the dollar would soften. This is the scenario that would most encourage risk-taking ahead of Q4 2026.\nCut (25bp) – A cut to 3.25%-3.50% would confirm the start of a new easing cycle. The market reaction would be strongly positive for equities and bonds\, particularly if accompanied by a dot plot showing further cuts in 2027. The September 2026 cut would be the most anticipated easing step since the 2025 cycle began.\nHold with hawkish dot plot – A hold accompanied by a dot plot showing zero cuts in 2026 (or even no cuts until 2027) would push yields sharply higher\, pressure equities\, and strengthen the dollar\, indicating the Fed sees inflation as an ongoing constraint on easing.\n\nPress Conference and Forward Guidance\nThe September press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT is one of the most closely watched of the year\, given the simultaneous release of the updated SEP and dot plot. Powell’s characterisation of the inflation trajectory and the committee’s confidence in inflation returning to 2% will set the tone for market expectations through year-end. Language around the “balance of risks” and the committee’s “readiness to adjust” will be parsed for any signal about October or December action. \nThe September 2026 SEP will also update projections through 2028\, providing the most comprehensive picture of where the FOMC expects the federal funds rate to settle in the longer run. Any revision to the “longer-run neutral rate” estimate\, currently around 3%\, would be a significant market event in itself\, as it defines the endpoint of any rate-cutting cycle. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June SEP meeting is the preceding comparable SEP decision and the most recent dot plot ahead of September.\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) June 2026 – Labour market data from June through August feeds into the Fed’s employment assessment at the September meeting.\nUS CPI Report June 2026 – CPI and PCE data through August are the critical inflation inputs for the September rate decision.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhy is the September FOMC meeting particularly important?\nSeptember is a SEP meeting\, meaning it produces updated economic forecasts and a dot plot alongside the rate decision. It falls at a natural midpoint in the second half of the year\, when the Fed has sufficient data on Q2 economic performance to assess whether the full-year policy trajectory needs adjustment. Historically\, September meetings have been associated with significant policy pivots\, including the start of both easing and tightening cycles. \nWhen will the FOMC September 2026 decision be announced?\nThe FOMC will publish its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026. The Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot will be released simultaneously. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. EDT. \nWhat is the FOMC dot plot and why is it released at September meetings?\nThe dot plot is a chart showing each FOMC member’s expectation for the appropriate federal funds rate at year-end for the current year and the next two years\, plus the longer run. It is released at the four SEP meetings each year (March\, June\, September\, December). Markets use the median dot to gauge the committee’s collective rate path\, though individual projections can vary widely and the plot can change significantly between meetings. \nResults: FOMC Rate Decision\, September 16\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nFederal funds target range\n25bp hike priced at 83-85% odds (CME FedWatch-based trackers)\nRaised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%\nHeld at 3.50%-3.75% (July 29\, 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point on September 16\, 2026\, taking the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. According to CNBC\, the move was the Fed’s first rate increase in three years and had been “widely anticipated by Wall Street” going into the decision\, after market-implied odds of a hike climbed to around 83-85% in the days beforehand. \nThe hike follows a run of holds at 3.50%-3.75% stretching back to December 2025\, including a 9-3 vote to keep rates unchanged at the July 28-29\, 2026 meeting\, when three members (Beth Hammack\, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan) had already dissented in favour of raising rates\, according to the official minutes cited by KuCoin. The scenario that materialised was closer to the hawkish end of what was previewed: rather than a hold with a hawkish dot plot\, the committee moved directly to a rate rise\, reflecting concerns that inflation was proving more persistent than the earlier hold-and-wait approach had assumed. Formal vote counts and the updated Summary of Economic Projections from the September meeting were not fully detailed in the earliest wire reports and are expected to be confirmed in the post-meeting minutes. \nMarket Reaction\nBond markets showed a measured response immediately after the announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield eased by almost 5 basis points to around 4.947%\, according to CNBC’s live coverage\, consistent with a decision that had been largely priced in beforehand rather than a surprise shock. \nBecause the hike had been flagged well in advance through Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s public remarks and shifting futures pricing\, the immediate reaction across equities\, the dollar and other asset classes was reported as contained rather than disorderly. Attention now turns to Chair Powell’s press conference commentary and the updated dot plot for signals on whether September marks a one-off adjustment or the start of a longer tightening path into the October and December meetings. \nKey takeaways from the statement\n\nThe Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%\, its first increase since the tightening cycle that predated the 2025 rate cuts.\nThe move had been heavily pre-signalled in market pricing\, with hike odds running at 83-85% ahead of the decision\, according to CME FedWatch-based trackers.\nIt follows a 9-3 vote to hold rates in July 2026\, when three members already dissented in favour of raising rates\, indicating the hike had building support within the Committee.\nFull vote details and the updated Summary of Economic Projections for the September meeting were not confirmed in the earliest reports and are expected in the official statement and minutes.\nMarkets will now focus on Powell’s press conference language and the dot plot for guidance on whether further hikes are likely at the October or December meetings.\n\nWhat this means for your money now\nA rate rise\, rather than the hold or cut many households had expected earlier in the year\, means borrowing costs are set to stay higher for longer. Variable-rate mortgages\, credit cards and other loans tied to the federal funds rate are likely to become more expensive\, while savers holding cash in high-yield accounts or money market funds may see a modest further benefit from higher deposit rates. \nFor investors\, a hike after a long run of holds can unsettle equity valuations\, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors\, while a firmer dollar following the move could make imports cheaper but exports less competitive for US companies\, with knock-on effects for currency markets in the UK\, the eurozone and Asia. Pension savers and anyone with a fixed-rate mortgage due for renewal should watch the coming weeks closely\, as Powell’s press conference and the updated dot plot will shape expectations for the October and December meetings.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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