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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260911T020000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260911T030000
DTSTAMP:20260825T124716Z
CREATED:20260825T124716Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T124716Z
UID:2163-1789092000-1789095600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:UK GDP September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next UK GDP: Friday\, September 11\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London). Covers Q2 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n0.4% q/q growth (three months to June 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: UK GDP. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nThe UK’s monthly gross domestic product (GDP) estimate is released on Friday\, September 11\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London time) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This release covers the economy’s output through July 2026 and\, through its rolling three-month growth measure\, gives the clearest early read on how the economy performed as it moved out of the second quarter of 2026. Full schedule and background on this series: UK GDP report dates. \nWhat is GDP and why does it matter?\nGross domestic product measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK over a given period. The ONS builds it from three angles that should\, in theory\, arrive at the same total: output (what businesses produce)\, expenditure (what is spent by households\, government and businesses) and income (wages\, profits and rents earned). Comparing growth from one period to the next shows whether the economy is expanding\, stagnating or shrinking. \nUnlike the United States\, which publishes GDP only on a quarterly basis\, the ONS also publishes a monthly GDP estimate. This gives investors\, the Bank of England and government economists a more frequent\, if noisier\, signal on the economy’s direction between the quarterly figures. Because monthly output data can be volatile\, the ONS also publishes a three-month-on-three-month growth rate\, which smooths out single-month swings and is treated by economists as a closer proxy for the underlying quarterly trend. \nMarkets watch GDP because it feeds directly into the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions\, government borrowing forecasts\, and how investors price UK assets such as gilts (government bonds)\, the pound and shares in domestically focused companies. A weaker-than-expected reading tends to increase the chance of interest rate cuts\, while a stronger reading can push expectations the other way. \nWhen is the July 2026 GDP report released?\nThe ONS is scheduled to publish the GDP monthly estimate covering July 2026 on Friday\, September 11\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET). It appears on the ONS website within its GDP monthly estimate\, UK bulletin series. The ONS typically releases monthly GDP data around six to seven weeks after the end of the reference month\, so a July release in mid-September follows the usual pattern; for example\, the April 2026 data was published on June 12\, 2026\, according to the ONS’s own previous releases page. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the July 2026 monthly GDP figure has not yet been published this far ahead of the release. City economists and Reuters or Bloomberg polls typically circulate a forecast in the days immediately before an ONS release\, so a specific consensus number is likely to appear closer to September 11\, 2026. \nThe most recent confirmed reading is the three-month-on-three-month growth rate published alongside the ONS’s monthly GDP overview\, which showed the economy growing by 0.4% in the three months to June 2026\, a period that corresponds to the second quarter of 2026 (April to June). This followed growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026\, which was itself revised down from an initial estimate of 0.7%\, and unrevised growth of 0.8% in the three months to April 2026\, according to the ONS’s GDP overview page. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior reading\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nThree-month-on-three-month GDP growth\n0.4% (three months to June 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\nMonthly GDP (single month\, m/m)\nNot confirmed for June 2026\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nSterling and gilt yields could firm as traders trim expectations for near-term Bank of England rate cuts\nThe economy is growing faster than expected\, which can support jobs and wages but may also keep prices rising\, delaying cheaper mortgage rates\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, as the figure confirms the existing growth path priced in by investors\nThe economy is behaving broadly as expected\, so there is little new information for savers or borrowers\n\n\nBelow consensus\nSterling could soften and gilt yields fall as markets price in a greater chance of interest rate cuts\nWeaker growth raises the risk of slower hiring and can eventually feed through to lower mortgage and savings rates\n\n\n\nThese are possible market reactions based on how similar data has historically been interpreted by analysts\, not predictions of the actual outcome. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee weighs GDP growth alongside inflation and the labour market when setting Bank Rate. UK growth slowed through the first half of 2026\, with the ONS recording quarterly growth of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026 and the rolling three-month growth rate easing from 0.8% in the three months to April 2026 to 0.4% by the three months to June 2026\, according to ONS data. A further slowdown in the July reading would add to the debate over how much room the Bank of England has to cut interest rates further\, while a rebound would support the case for holding rates steady for longer. \nThe reading also matters beyond UK borders. The UK is a major trading partner for the European Union and the United States\, and a weaker UK growth picture can weigh on sentiment toward European equities and the euro\, while a stronger figure can support UK-exposed multinational earnings reported by companies in Asia and North America. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages: Weaker GDP growth tends to increase the odds of Bank of England interest rate cuts over time\, which can eventually feed through to cheaper tracker and new fixed-rate mortgage deals\, though lenders often react to the wider trend rather than one release.\nSavings: If growth disappoints and rate cuts become more likely\, savings account and cash ISA rates offered by UK banks may drift lower in the following months.\nJobs and wages: GDP growth and employment tend to move together over time. A sustained slowdown can eventually mean fewer job openings or smaller pay rises\, particularly in sectors most exposed to consumer spending.\nPrices: GDP data does not set prices directly\, but weak growth combined with still-high inflation (known as stagflation risk) can complicate the Bank of England’s decisions on interest rates\, indirectly affecting the cost of borrowing for households and businesses.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: UK shares and the pound often react to GDP surprises. A weaker reading can pull the pound lower against the dollar and euro\, which affects the cost of holidays abroad and the value of overseas earnings for UK-listed multinational companies held in pension funds.\n\nRelated events\n\nBank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decisions\, which weigh GDP alongside inflation data\nUK monthly inflation (CPI) releases from the ONS\, published separately each month\nUK labour market statistics\, including the unemployment rate and average earnings\, published by the ONS\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the UK GDP report released?\nThe ONS publishes the July 2026 GDP monthly estimate at 7:00 am BST on September 11\, 2026\, which is 2:00 am ET. \nHow should I read the monthly GDP figure?\nFocus on the three-month-on-three-month growth rate rather than a single month’s number\, as the ONS and most economists treat it as a more reliable guide to the underlying trend because it smooths out monthly volatility. \nHow does UK GDP affect interest rates?\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses GDP growth\, alongside inflation and employment data\, to judge whether the economy needs looser or tighter monetary policy\, which in turn influences Bank Rate and borrowing costs. \nWhere can I find the official GDP release?\nThe full bulletin is published on the Office for National Statistics website under its GDP monthly estimate series. \nWhen is the next UK GDP release?\nFollowing the standard monthly cadence\, the next GDP monthly estimate\, covering August 2026 data\, would typically be published in mid-October 2026\, according to the ONS release calendar.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/uk-gdp-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260911T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260911T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104620Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104620Z
UID:1274-1789115400-1789119000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US CPI Report September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US CPI Report: Friday\, September 11\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US CPI Report. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US CPI ReportNext US CPI Report →\nThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August 2026 on Friday\, September 11\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report will reveal how consumer prices changed during August\, providing a critical inflation reading as the Federal Reserve weighs its next rate decision at the September 2026 meeting just five days later. \n\n  At a Glance \n\nRelease date: Friday\, September 11\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. ET\nPublishing body: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\nReference month: August 2026\nMost recent reading: 3.8% YoY (April 2026)\nMarket impact: High\n\n\nWhat is the Consumer Price Index?\nThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is the most widely followed measure of inflation in the United States. Published monthly by the BLS\, it tracks changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services covering approximately 93% of the US population. The basket includes categories such as housing\, food\, transport\, energy\, medical care\, apparel\, and recreation\, with housing carrying the largest weighting at around 32%. \nThe BLS collects price data from tens of thousands of retail and service establishments across the country. The resulting index is expressed as the percentage change against the same month one year earlier (the year-over-year or YoY rate) and as the month-over-month (MoM) change. Core CPI\, which strips out volatile food and energy components\, is watched closely by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) as a measure of underlying inflation trends. \nCPI is released roughly 12 to 13 days after the reference month ends. The September 2026 release covers price changes in August 2026\, giving markets a timely read on whether inflationary pressures are easing or persisting. \nUS CPI Release: September 11\, 2026\nThis release takes on particular importance given its proximity to the FOMC meeting on September 16\, 2026. It will be the final CPI print before the Fed delivers its rate decision\, making it one of the most market-sensitive data points on the calendar for the autumn of 2026. The most recent confirmed reading was 3.8% year-over-year for April 2026\, the highest annual inflation rate since May 2023\, driven by energy prices rising 17.9% on an annual basis. \nMonth-over-month\, consumer prices rose 0.6% in April and 0.9% in March\, reflecting the broad impact of higher oil prices. Core CPI rose to 2.8% year-over-year in April. Consensus forecasts for the August reading will be available closer to the release date; at time of publication\, the trajectory points to inflation remaining elevated above the Fed’s 2% target. \nWhy This CPI Release Matters\nThe September 11 release lands just five days before the FOMC decision on September 16\, giving Fed policymakers minimal time to fully digest the data before their meeting. However\, the print will shape market pricing of rate expectations and is likely to trigger significant moves in Treasury yields\, the US dollar\, and equities immediately upon release. \nConsumer price inflation has risen sharply through 2026\, with the annual rate reaching 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April\, driven by an oil price shock linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Gasoline prices rose 28.4% year-over-year in April\, pushing total energy costs up 17.9%. The question for August data is whether energy prices have stabilised or whether second-round inflationary effects (such as rising transport and services costs) are entrenching. \nFor bonds\, a high reading would push yields upward as markets price out any prospect of near-term rate cuts. For equities\, persistent inflation pressure is most negative for growth and rate-sensitive sectors. The US dollar would likely strengthen on a hot print\, while a cool reading would trigger the opposite moves across all asset classes. \nWhat to Watch For\nThe market’s response will depend on where the headline print lands relative to prevailing expectations: \n\nAbove consensus: A reading at or above 3.8% would signal that inflation is not cooling ahead of the Fed meeting\, reinforcing expectations of a hold in September and potentially pricing in further hikes. Treasury yields and the US dollar would rise sharply; equities would sell off\, led by growth sectors.\nIn line with consensus: A reading in line with expectations would reduce volatility\, with markets focused on the Fed’s forward guidance the following week rather than reacting to the inflation data alone. Attention would shift to sub-components\, especially shelter and core services.\nBelow consensus: A softer print\, say below 3.0%\, would be interpreted as progress towards the Fed’s 2% target and would increase expectations of a September rate cut. Bonds would rally\, equities would rise broadly\, and the US dollar would weaken. This outcome would represent a significant shift in the inflation narrative.\n\nEnergy price volatility remains the key swing factor. Should crude oil prices moderate through the summer\, the August reading could show meaningful relief on the headline figure even if core inflation remains sticky. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nYoY\nMoM\nCore YoY\n\n\n\n\nApril 2026\n3.8%\n+0.6%\n2.8%\n\n\nMarch 2026\n3.3%\n+0.9%\n2.6%\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n2.4%\n+0.2%\n—\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n2.4%\n—\n—\n\n\nDecember 2025\n2.7%\n—\n—\n\n\n\nSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. October and November 2025 data were not published due to the US government shutdown. MoM and core figures not available for all periods shown. \nMarket Positioning\nAs the September 2026 FOMC meeting approaches\, Fed funds futures and bond markets will increasingly reflect the cumulative picture painted by the July and August CPI reports. Should both releases show continued elevation\, the probability of a rate cut at the September meeting would be near zero. A meaningful softening in both prints would increase the chances of a 25 basis point reduction\, which would represent a shift in the monetary policy cycle. \nEquity markets have been navigating a challenging environment as higher borrowing costs weigh on valuations and corporate margins. The August CPI reading will be pivotal in determining whether the second half of 2026 brings relief or further pressure on rate-sensitive sectors. Fixed income investors will be watching shelter and services components most closely as leading indicators of where the broader inflation trend is heading. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – The preceding monthly release covering July 2026 data\, providing crucial context for the September reading.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s rate decision on September 16\, just five days after this CPI release.\nECB Rate Decision September 2026 – The European Central Bank’s policy meeting on September 10\, providing a global monetary policy comparison.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the CPI measure?\nThe CPI measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services\, including housing\, food\, transport\, energy\, and medical care. It is the most widely followed measure of consumer price inflation in the United States\, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. \nWhen is the September 2026 CPI report released?\nThe September 2026 CPI report will be released on Friday\, September 11\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report covers price changes during August 2026. \nWhy is the September 2026 CPI particularly important for markets?\nThe September 11 CPI release falls just five days before the FOMC rate decision on September 16\, 2026. It will be the final major inflation reading before the Fed announces its policy decision\, making it one of the highest-impact data points of the quarter. A significant surprise in either direction is likely to cause sharp moves in equities\, bonds\, and the US dollar.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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