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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T093000
DTSTAMP:20260903T132221Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T132221Z
UID:1329-1788424200-1788427800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US International Trade Balance September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US International Trade Balance: Deficit widened to $88.6 billion in July 2026\, up 24.4% from June (Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\nDeficit widened to $88.6 billion in July 2026\, up 24.4% from June\n\nFull schedule and background: US Trade Balance. \nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nThe US goods and services trade deficit widened to $88.6 billion in July 2026\, up 24.4% from a revised $73.3 billion in June and slightly narrower than the $90.2 billion consensus from a Bloomberg survey of economists\, the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on September 3\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the July 2026 trade balance has not yet been widely published ahead of the September 3 release. The most recent official reading showed the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026\, down from $77.6 billion in May\, according to the joint US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis release. Preliminary goods-only data from Trading Economics point to a wider July goods gap of $118.8 billion\, so traders should watch for whether the full report confirms a sharply larger overall deficit. A surprise would be any reading that diverges materially from that preliminary goods figure once services trade is added. \n← Previous US International Trade BalanceNext US International Trade Balance →\nUS International Trade Balance: September 2026 Preview\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau will jointly publish the International Trade in Goods and Services report for July 2026 on Thursday\, 3 September 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Known informally as the FT-900 release\, the report measures the monthly gap between American exports and imports across goods and services\, providing one of the broadest measures of the country’s external trade position. With tariff policy continuing to reshape global supply chains and import volumes\, the July reading will be among the first data points to signal how the summer trading period has absorbed the duty landscape that has defined much of 2026. \nThe release arrives at a pivotal point in the US economic calendar\, landing five days before the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting window opens. Traders and analysts will be parsing the July deficit not only for its headline figure but for its implications for second-half GDP growth\, dollar strength\, and the composition of the inflation pressures the Fed is managing. \n\n\n\nDetail\nInformation\n\n\n\n\nRelease date\n3 September 2026 (Thursday)\n\n\nRelease time\n8:30 a.m. ET / 13:30 BST\n\n\nReference month\nJuly 2026\n\n\nReleasing agencies\nBEA and US Census Bureau\n\n\nMost recent confirmed reading\nMarch 2026: -$60.3 billion\n\n\nFrequency\nMonthly\n\n\nMarket impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat the Report Measures\nThe FT-900 is one of the most comprehensive monthly snapshots of America’s engagement with the global economy. It splits trade into two broad categories: \nGoods covers the physical movement of products across US borders. The major sub-categories include industrial supplies and materials (including petroleum)\, capital goods (machinery\, aircraft\, semiconductors)\, consumer goods (pharmaceuticals\, vehicles\, household appliances)\, automotive products\, and food and beverages. The goods balance has been in deficit for decades\, reflecting the structural reality of a large consumer economy that sources much of its manufacturing from abroad. \nServices tracks cross-border transactions in intangible areas: travel and tourism\, financial services\, intellectual property royalties and licence fees\, telecommunications\, transport\, and education. The United States has consistently maintained a services surplus — running above $27 billion per month in early 2026 — which partially offsets the goods deficit to produce the headline total. \nThe difference between total exports and total imports yields the headline trade balance. When imports exceed exports\, the US records a deficit; when exports exceed imports\, a surplus. For goods and services combined\, the US has recorded a deficit in every month since early 2020. \nThe report also matters for national accounts. Net exports — the external sector contribution — feed directly into the quarterly GDP calculation. A wider deficit subtracts from GDP growth; a narrowing deficit adds to it. Revisions to the monthly trade data can therefore shift GDP estimates meaningfully\, making the FT-900 a key input for economists tracking real output. \nRecent Trend and Historical Data\nThe monthly trade deficit has been volatile over the past year\, driven primarily by front-running behaviour ahead of tariff changes. Importers pulled forward purchases in late 2025 to lock in lower duty rates before new levies took effect\, inflating the goods deficit to -$70.3 billion in December 2025. When that pre-positioning unwound\, the deficit snapped back sharply to -$54.5 billion in January 2026 — the narrowest reading in over a year. \nSince January\, the deficit has edged progressively wider. February 2026 printed at -$57.3 billion\, with the goods deficit at -$84.6 billion partially offset by a $27.3 billion services surplus. March 2026 widened further to -$60.3 billion\, as the goods deficit expanded to -$88.7 billion — its largest in the data set below — while the services surplus grew to $28.4 billion. \n\n\n\nMonth\nGoods Deficit\nServices Surplus\nTotal Deficit\n\n\n\n\nAugust 2025\nn/a\nn/a\n-$59.6B\n\n\nNovember 2025\nn/a\nn/a\n-$56.8B\n\n\nDecember 2025\nn/a\nn/a\n-$70.3B\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n-$82.8B\n+$27.3B\n-$54.5B\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n-$84.6B\n+$27.3B\n-$57.3B\n\n\nMarch 2026\n-$88.7B\n+$28.4B\n-$60.3B\n\n\n\nSources: BEA FT-900 press releases; JEC Senate Monthly Trade Update; BLS advance economic indicators. \nThe structural widening in the goods deficit through early 2026 reflects several forces: elevated consumer demand for imported electronics and vehicles; capital equipment imports tied to the domestic manufacturing expansion encouraged by industrial policy; and the phased effect of tariff adjustments on the composition of import flows. The growing services surplus has acted as a partial counterweight\, driven by strong inbound tourism\, financial services exports\, and royalty income from US intellectual property held abroad. \nWhat the Markets Are Watching\nThe July 2026 report will be read in a specific context shaped by three interacting themes. \nTariff stabilisation and ordering patterns. Following the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling that curtailed several broad tariff programmes\, import levies have stabilised compared to the highly volatile late-2025 period. The question for July is whether businesses have resumed normal ordering cycles or whether residual uncertainty is still distorting import volumes. A sustained widening of the goods deficit\, even without the pre-positioning distortions of 2025\, would suggest underlying demand is genuinely strong — which has different policy implications than a tariff-driven import surge. \nEnergy and petroleum flows. Petroleum products have been a volatile sub-component throughout 2025-26. Changes in OPEC+ output levels\, US domestic production from the Permian Basin\, and the strategic petroleum reserve cycle all influence the energy goods deficit. A significant swing in petroleum trade in July could distort the headline figure in either direction. \nThe services surplus as a stabiliser. Financial services exports and travel receipts tend to be stronger in summer months\, which could provide a seasonal lift to the services surplus in July. A larger services surplus would moderate the total deficit even if goods imports remain elevated. Analysts will track whether the services contribution continues to expand or whether any softening in financial markets during the period tempers financial services export income. \nThe dollar’s trajectory through June and July 2026 will also serve as a contextual input. A weaker dollar reduces US purchasing power for imports and makes American exports cheaper for foreign buyers\, tending over time to narrow the deficit. Currency dynamics heading into the September report window will inform how traders interpret the direction of the headline number. \nMarket Scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nIndicative Range\nLikely Market Reaction\n\n\n\n\nDeficit narrows sharply\nBetter than -$56B\nUSD strengthens; equities may tick higher on GDP tailwind; Treasury yields edge up\n\n\nIn line with recent trend\n-$56B to -$65B\nMuted reaction; market focus shifts to payrolls and Fed guidance\n\n\nDeficit widens materially\nWorse than -$65B\nUSD softens; some equity pressure if it raises growth concerns; bonds may rally\n\n\n\nThe trade balance is a medium-impact release on a standalone basis. Its market influence is amplified when the deficit moves well outside recent norms\, or when it arrives in a month where the growth narrative is already in flux. September 2026 may be such a month: the release comes one day before the US services ISM and ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls the following Friday\, placing it within a dense data cluster that will collectively shape the September FOMC meeting. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) September 2026 — Published Friday\, 5 September 2026. Labour market strength shapes consumer demand and therefore future import volumes.\nUS Consumer Price Index September 2026 — Inflation data affecting Fed rate expectations and dollar dynamics that feed back into trade competitiveness.\nUS Producer Price Index September 2026 — Supply-side cost pressures that influence export pricing and manufacturing competitiveness.\nUS International Trade Balance August 2026 — The preceding month’s release (4 August 2026)\, covering June 2026 data\, will provide the most recent comparable reading ahead of the September report.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 — The Federal Reserve’s September policy decision will incorporate the trade data as one input to its growth and inflation assessment.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the trade balance released?\nThe FT-900 report is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (13:30 BST) on Thursday\, 3 September 2026. Data is embargoed until that moment; early access is granted only to accredited media under lock-up conditions. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe press release and full tables are published simultaneously by the BEA at bea.gov and by the Census Bureau at census.gov/foreign-trade. Both agencies publish the same underlying data; the BEA site provides additional services breakdowns. \nWhat is the difference between the goods deficit and the total deficit?\nThe goods deficit covers only physical trade flows — manufactured goods\, petroleum\, food\, vehicles. The total (goods and services) deficit nets out the services surplus. For the United States\, the services surplus has been running above $27 billion per month in early 2026\, substantially reducing the headline deficit relative to the goods-only figure. \nDoes the trade balance affect GDP directly?\nYes. Net exports — exports minus imports — are one of the four components of the GDP expenditure calculation. A wider deficit subtracts from quarterly GDP; a narrowing deficit adds to it. This is why large swings in the monthly trade balance can shift GDP nowcast models significantly even before the official BEA GDP estimate is published. \nWhy does the data take so long to compile?\nThe FT-900 is published approximately 34 to 36 days after the end of the reference month\, reflecting the time required to compile customs entry data\, services transaction reports\, and seasonal adjustment calculations across a wide range of product and country categories. An advance goods estimate (the Advance Economic Indicators Report) is typically published around 26 days after month-end\, providing an early read on the goods deficit before the full report. \nHow often is the data revised?\nEach monthly FT-900 release revises the prior month’s data. More substantive revisions are published as part of the BEA annual update; the June 2026 annual revision updated goods data back to 2021 and services data back to 1999. \nResults: US International Trade Balance\, July 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nGoods and services deficit\n-$90.2 billion (Bloomberg survey)\n-$88.6 billion\n-$73.3 billion (June 2026\, revised)\n\n\n\nThe Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 that the US goods and services trade deficit widened to $88.6 billion in July\, a 24.4% jump from June’s revised $73.3 billion\, according to Bloomberg. The figure came in slightly smaller than the median forecast of $90.2 billion from a Bloomberg survey of economists\, but it still marked the largest monthly deficit since early 2025. \nThe widening was driven mainly by a rebound in imports rather than a collapse in exports\, according to Commerce Department data cited by Bloomberg. This lines up with the pattern already visible in the advance goods figures published on August 27\, which showed the goods-only deficit jumping to $118.8 billion in July from $101.4 billion in June\, as imports rose while exports slipped\, according to the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators Report. The scenario that materialised was closer to the wider-deficit case flagged in the preview\, where a resumption of normal import ordering after the disruptions of late 2025 and early 2026 produced a genuine\, demand-driven widening rather than a tariff-timing distortion. \nThere were no major revisions to the June reading beyond the routine update already reflected in the $73.3 billion prior figure. The report confirms that the earlier narrowing seen in the January to June period has partially reversed\, with the year-to-date trade gap likely to narrow less sharply than it did in the first half of 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nBecause the actual deficit undershot the consensus estimate\, the initial market reaction was muted rather than sharply negative. Traders had already been braced for a wide number after the advance goods data on August 27 pointed to a 16-month high in the goods deficit\, so the full report largely confirmed rather than surprised the market. \nAttention now turns to how the wider net export drag feeds into third-quarter GDP tracking estimates and whether the Federal Reserve\, meeting later in September\, treats the trade data as a signal of resilient domestic demand or of tariff-related distortions still working through the system. Currency and rates markets are likely to keep their focus on the incoming September jobs and inflation data rather than trade figures alone. \nWhat this means for your money now\nA wider trade deficit on its own does not move mortgage rates or savings rates directly\, but it feeds into GDP calculations that the Federal Reserve watches when setting interest rates. If the import rebound reflects strong US consumer and business demand\, it supports the case for the Fed holding rates steady for longer\, which keeps mortgage and savings rates roughly where they are. A weaker dollar stemming from a persistently wide deficit would make imported goods\, including electronics and clothing from Asia and Europe\, more expensive for US shoppers\, while UK and eurozone exporters selling into the US could see a modest lift to their competitiveness.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-international-trade-balance-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T093000
DTSTAMP:20260903T132319Z
CREATED:20260825T102429Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T132319Z
UID:1660-1788424200-1788427800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Initial Jobless Claims: September 3\, 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Initial Jobless Claims: 206\,000 initial claims (week ending August 29\, 2026)\, 1.779 million continuing claims (week ending August 22\, 2026) (Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). \n\nActual\n206\,000 initial claims (week ending August 29\, 2026)\, 1.779 million continuing claims (week ending August 22\, 2026)\n\nFull schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nInitial jobless claims for the week ending August 29\, 2026 rose to 206\,000\, a touch above the 205\,000 consensus forecast\, and slightly above the prior week’s revised reading of 204\,000\, according to the US Department of Labor. \nA consensus forecast for the September 3\, 2026 release has not yet been published\, as weekly jobless claims estimates from Reuters and Bloomberg surveys typically appear only a day or two before the report. The prior reading\, for the week ending August 22\, 2026\, showed initial claims at 203\,000\, down from a revised 207\,000 and below the earlier median forecast of around 208\,000\, according to FRED and Investing.com. Claims have held broadly between 189\,000 and 230\,000 through 2026\, so a surprise would mean a reading well outside that range\, potentially signalling either a sudden pickup in layoffs or renewed labour market tightness. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nThe US Department of Labor releases its weekly Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The report covers new applications for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending August 29\, 2026. It is one of the most timely gauges of the American labour market\, published every week regardless of other data on the calendar. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the week ending August 29\, 2026 has not yet been published. Economist forecasts for this release typically appear the day before\, once major data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters poll their panels\, so a figure should surface closer to September 2\, 2026. \nThe most recently published reading is for the week ending August 15\, 2026\, when initial claims fell to 206\,000 (seasonally adjusted) from 212\,000 the previous week\, according to Trading Economics\, citing the Department of Labor. Continuing claims\, which count people still receiving benefits after their first week\, fell by 22\,000 to 1\,777\,000 in the earlier reference week\, according to the same source. A further release covering the week ending August 22\, 2026 was due on August 27\, 2026\, but had not been confirmed in official data at the time this page was prepared. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n206\,000 (week ending August 15\, 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\nContinuing claims\n1\,777\,000 (week ending August 8\, 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as a sign of labour-market cooling\, often supportive of Treasury prices and a softer dollar\, and can raise bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts\nMore people than expected are losing jobs or being laid off\, hinting the jobs market is weakening\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, since the data confirms the existing picture of a gradually cooling but still resilient labour market\nThe pace of layoffs is roughly unchanged from recent weeks\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCan be read as a sign of continued labour-market strength\, which may reduce expectations for near-term rate cuts and support the dollar\nFewer people than expected filed for benefits\, suggesting employers are still holding onto staff\n\n\n\nWhy it matters this week\nJobless claims have stayed close to historically low levels through the summer of 2026\, even as other labour indicators\, including the monthly payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics\, have shown a slower pace of hiring. Trading Economics notes that recent readings have broadly aligned with comments from Federal Reserve officials who describe the US economy as close to full employment\, even though continuing claims have drifted higher over the year\, a sign that people who lose jobs are taking longer to find new ones. \nThe Federal Reserve watches this release closely because it arrives weekly\, well ahead of the monthly jobs report\, and can flag turning points in the labour market before they show up elsewhere. A run of higher claims would add weight to arguments for further interest rate cuts\, while continued low claims would support policymakers who prefer to hold rates steady for longer. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor anyone with a mortgage\, a savings account or a pension\, this weekly number matters because of what it tells markets about the direction of US interest rates. If claims rise sharply and stay high\, traders often increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts\, which can pull down bond yields and\, eventually\, some borrowing costs\, including mortgage rates linked to longer-term rates. Savers\, in turn\, may see returns on cash and money-market accounts drift lower over time. \nA weaker labour market reading can also weigh on the dollar. A softer dollar can make imports more expensive for American households\, while making US exports and dollar-priced assets\, including some UK and European pension holdings\, look relatively cheaper to overseas buyers. Conversely\, unexpectedly low claims tend to support the dollar and can keep pressure on the pound and euro\, since they suggest the Fed has less urgency to cut rates. \nFor investors\, this release feeds into the same debate driving stock and bond markets all year: how quickly the Fed can lower rates without reigniting inflation. Sharp\, unexpected moves in either direction can move both US and global markets within minutes of the 8:30 am ET release\, even though any single week’s figure is noisy and often revised. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the jobless claims report released?\nThe Department of Labor publishes the report at 8:30 am ET\, which is 1:30 pm in London\, every Thursday unless a public holiday shifts the schedule. \nWhat counts as a big miss from consensus?\nMoves of more than around 15\,000 to 20\,000 claims away from the consensus forecast are generally seen as significant\, since the weekly figure is naturally volatile and subject to revision the following week. \nWhen is the next jobless claims report?\nThe following release covers the week ending September 5\, 2026 and is due on Thursday\, September 10\, 2026\, again at 8:30 am ET. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nResults: US Initial Jobless Claims\, week ending August 29\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n205\,000\n206\,000\n204\,000 (revised from 203\,000)\n\n\nContinuing claims\nNot separately forecast\n1\,779\,000 (week ending August 22\, 2026)\n1\,771\,000 (week ending August 15\, 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 206\,000 in the week ending August 29\, 2026\, a touch above the 205\,000 consensus forecast tracked by FXStreet and just above the prior week’s revised reading of 204\,000\, itself revised up from an initially reported 203\,000. The four-week moving average\, which smooths out weekly noise\, rose modestly to 207\,250 from the previous week’s revised level\, according to FXStreet and the Associated Press. \nContinuing claims\, edged higher to 1\,779\,000 for the week ending August 22\, 2026\, up 8\,000 from the prior week\, according to FXStreet\, pointing to people who lose jobs taking somewhat longer to find new roles even as the pace of layoffs itself stays historically low. \nThis scenario landed close to the middle of the ranges outlined in the earlier preview: a small overshoot versus consensus\, not large enough to be read as a clear turning point. The result kept claims within the roughly 189\,000 to 230\,000 band that has held through 2026\, reinforcing the Fed’s description of the labour market as close to full employment even as continuing claims drift higher over the course of the year. \nMarket Reaction\nCurrency markets moved more than usual around this release\, but analysts attributed most of the swing to other forces rather than the jobs data itself. FXStreet reported that the US Dollar Index slid towards the 99.00 support level on the day\, a decline it linked chiefly to intensifying speculation over a Bank of Japan interest rate rise\, which pulled USD/JPY sharply lower. CNBC reported that stock index futures firmed and Treasury yields eased on the same morning\, as investors weighed the claims figure alongside a wider than expected US trade deficit for July. \nUS Treasury yields\, which had climbed to a 20 month high earlier in the week on inflation worries\, eased back somewhat as the jobless claims print reinforced the picture of a gradually softening labour market without signalling any sharp deterioration. Elsewhere\, UK gilt yields and German Bunds\, which had also risen sharply earlier in the week on their own domestic pressures\, were not materially moved by the US release. There> \nFoundation for Fed policy: because the reading landed close to consensus\, it did little on its own to shift pricing for the Federal Reserve’s next meeting\, leaving traders focused instead on the upcoming monthly payrolls report and inflation data for a clearer signal on the pace of further interest rate cuts. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook for mortgages\, savings rates and currencies is largely unchanged by this release. The result was landed close to consensus and did not materially shift market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move\, so borrowers and savers should continue to watch the monthly payrolls report and upcoming inflation data for clearer signals on the direction of US interest rates.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-initial-jobless-claims-september-3-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T110000
DTSTAMP:20260903T142422Z
CREATED:20260825T102004Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T142422Z
UID:1659-1788429600-1788433200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US ISM Services PMI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US ISM Services PMI: 55.4 (August 2026) (Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London)). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nActual\n55.4 (August 2026)\n\nFull schedule and background: US ISM Services PMI. \nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nThe US ISM Services PMI for August 2026 registered 55.4 percent\, up from July’s 54.1 percent\, the Institute for Supply Management reported on September 3\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 ISM Services PMI has not yet been published by major polling desks this close to release. The prior reading\, for July 2026\, came in at 54.1\, according to the Institute for Supply Management\, up slightly from June and marking a 25th straight month of expansion\, though one commentary noted the July print landed “slightly below expectations of 54.5”. Any August figure much below 50 would signal an unexpected contraction in the services sector\, a surprise investors are not currently pricing in given the sector’s recent resilience. \nThe US ISM Services PMI for August 2026 is due at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026\, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The report covers services sector activity in August 2026\, the second-largest slice of the US economy after manufacturing. Full schedule and background: US ISM Services PMI. The Institute for Supply Management has not yet confirmed the exact release date for this specific report\, but ISM reports are published on the first business day of the month following the survey period\, so September 3\, 2026 is the expected date. \nWhat is the ISM Services PMI?\nThe ISM Services PMI\, formally the Services PMI\, is a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives across more than a dozen service industries\, including finance\, healthcare\, retail and transport. Each month\, ISM asks respondents whether business activity\, new orders\, employment\, supplier deliveries\, inventories and prices have increased\, decreased or stayed the same compared with the prior month. \nThe headline figure is a diffusion index built from these responses. A reading above 50 percent signals the services sector is expanding; below 50 percent signals contraction. Because services make up roughly two-thirds of US economic output\, the index is one of the most closely watched real-time signals of how the broader economy is performing\, alongside its manufacturing counterpart. \nMarkets watch it because it arrives quickly\, before official government data such as GDP\, and because sub-indices like new orders and employment often hint at where growth and hiring are heading in the following months. A sharp move in the Prices Paid component is also read as an early signal for inflation trends that the Federal Reserve tracks. \nWhen is the August ISM Services PMI released?\nThe report is scheduled for 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026. It is published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and released via the ISM website and major newswires including PR Newswire. As with all ISM reports\, the exact date can shift slightly if it falls near a public holiday\, so readers should check the official ISM calendar close to the date for final confirmation. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published by major surveys such as Reuters or Bloomberg at the time of writing. The most recent confirmed reading is the July 2026 report\, in which the headline Services PMI registered 54.1 percent\, up 0.1 percentage point from June’s 54.0 percent\, according to the ISM Services PMI Report. That marked the 25th consecutive month of expansion. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Services PMI\n54.1%\nNot yet published\n\n\nEmployment Index\n47.4%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as evidence the services economy is accelerating\, which could reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts if paired with firm prices paid\nThe services side of the economy\, where most jobs sit\, is growing faster than expected\, which can support wages but also keep borrowing costs higher for longer\n\n\nIn line\nLikely to have limited market impact on its own\, though sub-indices such as employment and prices paid could still move bond and currency markets\nThe economy is behaving broadly as expected\, so there is little reason for lenders or the Fed to change course immediately\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould be read as a sign of cooling demand\, particularly if new orders or business activity slow\, potentially reinforcing bets on rate cuts\nSlower growth in services can eventually mean fewer job openings and softer pricing power for businesses\, which can filter through to weaker wage growth\n\n\n\nThese are possible interpretations\, not predictions. Actual market reaction depends on the full report\, including the employment and prices paid components\, not just the headline number. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe services sector has expanded for 25 straight months as of the July 2026 report\, but the details beneath the headline have been mixed. The Business Activity Index jumped to 59.1 percent in July from 55.4 percent in June\, and New Orders climbed to 57.2 percent from 55.1 percent\, according to the ISM Services PMI Report for July. At the same time\, the Employment Index fell back into contraction at 47.4 percent\, down from 51.2 percent in June\, a divergence flagged by independent analysis of the report from Neil’s Newsletter\, which noted employment has been below 50 for 12 of the last 18 months. \nPrices Paid\, a proxy for input cost pressure\, rose to 70.3 percent in July from 67.7 percent in June\, according to the same analysis. That combination of strong activity\, softer hiring and rising input costs is exactly the mix the Federal Reserve watches when weighing whether inflation risks or labour market risks deserve more weight in its interest rate decisions. The 12-month average reading of 53.4 percent\, cited in the ISM report\, shows the sector has been on a gradually improving trend\, so an August print that breaks sharply from that pattern in either direction would draw close scrutiny. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing: a strong services report\, especially with high prices paid\, can reduce the chance of near-term Fed rate cuts\, keeping US mortgage and loan rates higher for longer. A weak report has the opposite effect and can pull mortgage rates down.\nSavings: higher-for-longer interest rate expectations tend to support returns on savings accounts and money market funds in the US\, while a weaker report can see savings rates drift lower over time as rate cut expectations build.\nJobs and wages: the Employment Index is a genuine early signal for the services sector\, which employs the majority of US workers. Continued weakness there\, as seen in July\, can be an early warning of slower hiring even while headline growth looks solid.\nPrices: the Prices Paid Index feeds into expectations for consumer inflation. A sustained rise can mean businesses pass higher costs on to consumers\, affecting everything from restaurant bills to service fees.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: US equity and bond markets often move on ISM releases\, which can ripple into pension funds holding US assets worldwide. A stronger-than-expected reading\, particularly with firm prices\, tends to support the dollar against the pound and euro\, while a weak reading can weigh on it. UK and European investors with US-focused funds or dollar exposure should watch for volatility around the release time.\n\nRelated events\n\nISM Manufacturing PMI\, typically released a few business days before the Services PMI each month\nUS nonfarm payrolls report\, usually released the first Friday of the month\, shortly after the Services PMI\nFederal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which weigh services sector data alongside inflation and labour market reports\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the ISM Services PMI released?\nThe report is released at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm in London\, on the first business day of the month following the survey period. \nHow do I read the ISM Services PMI number?\nA reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector is expanding compared with the prior month\, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction. The further from 50\, the stronger the signal. \nHow does this release affect interest rates?\nThe Federal Reserve monitors services sector activity and prices paid as part of its assessment of economic growth and inflation pressure\, which can influence the timing of interest rate decisions. \nWhere can I find the official ISM Services PMI release?\nThe official report is published on the Institute for Supply Management’s website and distributed via newswires such as PR Newswire at the time of release. \nWhen is the next ISM Services PMI report after this one?\nThe following report\, covering September 2026 data\, is expected on the first business day of October 2026\, following ISM’s usual publication schedule. \nResults: US ISM Services PMI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Services PMI\nNot formally published\n55.4%\n54.1% (July 2026)\n\n\nBusiness Activity Index\nNot formally published\n61.7%\n59.1% (July 2026)\n\n\nNew Orders Index\nNot formally published\n60.9%\n57.2% (July 2026)\n\n\nEmployment Index\nNot formally published\n47.8%\n47.4% (July 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Institute for Supply Management reported that the Services PMI registered 55.4 percent in August 2026\, up 1.3 percentage points from July’s 54.1 percent\, marking the 26th consecutive month of expansion. This was firmer than the picture painted in the July report\, which had already shown accelerating business activity and new orders\, and confirms that the acceleration scenario from the preview materialised rather than a slowdown. \nThe Business Activity Index and New Orders Index both climbed further\, to 61.7 percent and 60.9 percent respectively\, reinforcing the sense of a services sector running hotter than in recent months. However\, the Employment Index contracted for a second straight month\, at 47.8 percent\, only marginally above July’s 47.4 percent. That persistent weakness in hiring intentions\, even as headline activity and orders strengthen\, echoes the divergence flagged in the preview and remains the most closely watched sub-index for signs of labour market cooling. \nMarket Reaction\nThe stronger headline print\, and particularly the jump in new orders and business activity\, was read by market commentators as evidence the services economy is running above trend\, reducing the odds some traders had placed on an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Short-dated Treasury yields edged higher immediately after the 10:00 am ET release\, and the dollar firmed against the pound and euro in the minutes that followed\, consistent with the above-consensus scenario outlined ahead of the release. \nEquity markets showed a more mixed response\, with early gains in cyclical and services-linked shares partly offset by concern that a second straight contraction in the Employment Index points to a softer labour market even as broader activity accelerates. Fed funds futures tracked by the CME FedWatch tool showed only a modest reduction in the probability of a near-term rate cut\, suggesting traders are weighing the strong headline against the weaker jobs signal rather than reacting to one number alone. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe stronger services reading\, if sustained\, points toward US interest rates staying higher for longer than some had hoped\, which keeps US mortgage and loan costs elevated and continues to support returns on dollar savings and money market funds. At the same time\, the ongoing weakness in the Employment Index is a reminder that hiring in the services sector\, which employs most US workers\, remains fragile\, a signal worth watching in the run-up to the next nonfarm payrolls report. UK and European holders of dollar assets or US equity funds may see some near-term currency-driven volatility\, though the outlook for global rates and currencies has not shifted decisively on this release alone.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-ism-services-pmi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTAMP:20260903T162340Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T162340Z
UID:1283-1788436800-1788440400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:AVGO Earnings September 2026
DESCRIPTION:AVGO Quarterly Earnings: Non-GAAP EPS $3.32 vs $3.24 consensus; revenue $29.59bn vs $29.36bn consensus; Q4 guidance $34.8bn vs $35.03bn expected (Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nNon-GAAP diluted EPS of approximately $1.97 to $2.00 on revenue near $29.4 billion for fiscal Q3 2026\, based on analysts' estimates tracking Broadcom's own guidance\nActual\nNon-GAAP EPS $3.32 vs $3.24 consensus; revenue $29.59bn vs $29.36bn consensus; Q4 guidance $34.8bn vs $35.03bn expected\n\nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nBroadcom reported fiscal third-quarter non-GAAP earnings of $3.32 per share and revenue of $29.59 billion on September 2\, 2026\, beating Wall Street estimates\, but its shares fell after the company issued fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $34.8 billion that came in below the $35.03 billion analysts had expected. \nBroadcom’s own guidance\, issued alongside its second-quarter results on June 3\, 2026\, points analysts towards fiscal third-quarter revenue of approximately $29.4 billion\, an 84% year-on-year increase\, with non-GAAP operating margin held at around 67%\, according to the company’s investor relations release. A consensus forecast compiled independently by Reuters or Bloomberg for this specific quarter has not yet been widely published. In the prior quarter\, Broadcom beat the $2.40 EPS consensus tracked by LSEG with $2.44 non-GAAP diluted EPS\, while revenue of $22.19 billion narrowly topped the $22.1 billion estimate. A surprise this time would be AI semiconductor revenue falling short of the $16.0 billion management guided for\, or a miss on the 67% operating margin target. \nBroadcom Inc. (Nasdaq: AVGO) will report its third quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026\, after market close. The company has provided revenue guidance of approximately $29.4 billion for Q3 FY2026\, representing an 84% increase year-over-year and continued acceleration driven by extraordinary demand for its AI networking and custom silicon products. \n\n  At a Glance \n\nReport date: Thursday\, September 3\, 2026\, after market close (AMC)\nCompany: Broadcom Inc. (Nasdaq: AVGO)\nQuarter: Q3 FY2026 (fiscal quarter ending late July 2026)\nRevenue guidance: ~$29.4 billion (84% YoY growth)\nAI revenue guidance: ~$16.0 billion (200%+ YoY growth)\nMarket impact: High\n\n\nWhat is Broadcom?\nBroadcom Inc. is a global technology company designing\, developing\, and supplying a broad range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. Headquartered in Palo Alto\, California\, it is one of the world’s largest semiconductor companies by revenue\, with products spanning networking\, storage\, wireless\, broadband\, and custom silicon. The company has grown significantly through acquisitions\, including the landmark $61 billion purchase of VMware completed in November 2023\, which added a major enterprise software division alongside its existing semiconductor operations. \nBroadcom operates on a fiscal year that ends in late October\, making its fiscal Q3 the period from approximately late April to late July. The company reports earnings four times per year\, typically in February\, May\, September\, and December. Analysts\, institutional investors\, and market watchers follow Broadcom’s results closely because its networking chips are central infrastructure for AI data centres\, making the company a bellwether for AI capital expenditure by hyperscalers such as Microsoft\, Alphabet\, Meta\, and Apple. \nThe stock is a component of the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 indices. At the time of writing\, Broadcom is one of the highest-valued semiconductor companies in the world\, with AI demand serving as the primary revenue growth driver since 2025. \nAVGO Earnings: Q3 FY2026 Schedule\nThe Q3 FY2026 earnings release is scheduled for Thursday\, September 3\, 2026\, after market close. Following the release of results\, management will host a conference call\, typically beginning at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time\, during which CEO Hock Tan and CFO Kirsten Spears will discuss the quarterly results and provide guidance for Q4 FY2026. The call will be webcast live and accessible via the Investors section of the Broadcom website at investors.broadcom.com. \nThe September 3 date was confirmed by the company via its investor relations page. The fiscal Q3 FY2026 covers approximately the 13-week period ending in late July 2026. \nWhy AVGO Earnings Matter for Markets\nBroadcom has become one of the most closely watched bellwethers for the AI infrastructure investment cycle. Its custom AI accelerator chips (XPUs) are deployed by major hyperscalers and compete in the market dominated by Nvidia’s GPU offerings. The company’s AI networking products\, including Tomahawk and Jericho switch chips\, are essential components of data centre fabric used in large-scale AI training and inference clusters. \nBroadcom guided Q3 FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue to approximately $16.0 billion\, representing more than 200% growth year-over-year\, according to company guidance issued alongside Q2 FY2026 results in early June 2026. If achieved\, this would represent a further step-up from Q2 FY2026\, when Broadcom reported total revenue of $22.187 billion. The scale of AI-driven growth has made AVGO’s earnings calls critical events for investors across the technology and AI ecosystem. \nBeyond AI semiconductors\, the VMware software business acquired in 2023 continues to be integrated. Progress on VMware revenue conversion (from perpetual licences to subscription) and operating margins will be examined by analysts seeking to understand the sustainability and quality of earnings. Any deterioration in VMware churn or pricing would be a concern\, while strong software gross margins above 80% would be a positive signal. \nWhat to Watch For in Q3 FY2026\nInvestors and analysts will focus on several key themes during the Q3 FY2026 earnings release and call: \nAI revenue versus guidance: The company guided AI semiconductor revenue to approximately $16.0 billion for Q3. Meeting or beating this figure would reinforce the AI demand story and likely support a positive stock reaction. Missing the guidance would raise concerns about hyperscaler capex slowdowns or competition from Nvidia and other AI chip suppliers. \nTotal revenue versus consensus: Pre-guidance\, Wall Street consensus for Q3 FY2026 revenue stood at approximately $28.47 billion. Broadcom’s own guidance of $29.4 billion exceeded this\, setting a higher bar. Analysts will update their models in the weeks before September 3\, but the company’s self-guided number will be the primary benchmark against which results are measured. \nQ4 FY2026 guidance: As important as the Q3 results is the guidance for Q4 FY2026 (covering August to October 2026)\, which will be issued alongside the results. Given the sequential revenue growth trajectory\, the market will expect Q4 guidance to continue the upward trend. A Q4 guide in the $30 billion or above range would likely be viewed positively. \nVMware metrics: VMware subscription and SaaS revenues\, annualised contract value (ACV)\, and renewal rates will be scrutinised. The VMware integration is a multiyear programme and any acceleration in adoption of VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) would be a positive indicator. \nOperating margins: Broadcom guided non-GAAP operating margins of approximately 67% for Q3. Any expansion above this level would be well received\, while compression would raise questions about the cost structure of the AI build-out. \nRecent Quarterly Results\n\n\n\nQuarter\nRevenue\nNon-GAAP EPS\nYoY Revenue Growth\n\n\n\n\nQ2 FY2026 (May 2026)\n$22.19B\n$2.44\n+48%\n\n\nQ1 FY2026 (Feb 2026)\n$19.31B\n$2.05\n+29%\n\n\nQ4 FY2025 (Dec 2025)\n$18.02B\n$1.95\n+51%\n\n\nQ2 FY2025 (May 2025)\n$15.00B\n$1.58\n—\n\n\nQ1 FY2025 (Feb 2025)\n$14.92B\n$1.60\n—\n\n\n\nSource: Broadcom Inc. SEC filings and earnings releases. Q3 FY2026 results are forthcoming on September 3\, 2026. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report September 2026 – The August 2026 inflation reading\, released the same week\, which will influence Federal Reserve expectations and the broader risk-on/risk-off backdrop for tech earnings.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Fed’s policy decision on September 16\, for which macro data released in early September\, including Broadcom’s earnings call commentary\, provides context about corporate conditions.\nECB Rate Decision September 2026 – The European Central Bank’s meeting on September 10\, relevant for Broadcom’s substantial European customer base and operations.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does Broadcom do and why do investors follow it so closely?\nBroadcom designs and sells semiconductor chips and infrastructure software used in data centres\, networking\, broadband\, and enterprise IT systems. It has become a bellwether for AI infrastructure investment because its custom AI accelerator chips and high-speed networking products are core components of the data centres built by major hyperscalers. Investors track Broadcom’s results to gauge the health of AI capital expenditure\, making its earnings calls among the most market-sensitive technology events each quarter. \nWhen exactly will Broadcom report Q3 FY2026 results?\nBroadcom is scheduled to report Q3 FY2026 financial results on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026\, after market close (approximately 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time). The earnings conference call will follow\, typically beginning at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time\, and will be webcast live via the company’s investor relations website. \nWhat is the analyst consensus for Q3 FY2026 revenue?\nPrior to Broadcom’s own Q3 guidance issued alongside Q2 FY2026 results in June 2026\, Wall Street consensus for Q3 FY2026 revenue stood at approximately $28.47 billion. Broadcom’s management guidance of $29.4 billion exceeded this consensus\, raising the bar for the actual results. Analysts will update their estimates in the weeks before September 3 to reflect the updated outlook. \nFeatured image: Photo by Adi Goldstein on Unsplash. \nResults: AVGO Q3 FY2026 Earnings\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior (Q2 FY2026)\n\n\n\n\nNon-GAAP diluted EPS\n$3.24 (LSEG)\n$3.32\n$2.44\n\n\nRevenue\n$29.36 billion (LSEG)\n$29.59 billion\n$22.19 billion\n\n\nAI semiconductor revenue\n$16.0 billion (guidance) / $15.2 billion (StreetAccount)\n$16.7 billion\n$10.8 billion\n\n\nQ4 FY2026 revenue guidance\n$35.03 billion (analyst expectation)\n$34.8 billion (company guidance)\nn/a\n\n\n\nBroadcom Inc. (Nasdaq: AVGO) announced its third quarter fiscal year 2026 results after market close on September 2\, 2026. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $3.32\, ahead of the $3.24 consensus tracked by LSEG\, while revenue of $29.59 billion beat the $29.36 billion analysts had pencilled in and topped the company’s own $29.4 billion guidance. GAAP net income more than tripled year on year to $13.09 billion\, or $2.68 per share\, according to Broadcom’s official earnings release. \nAI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion\, up 221% year on year and above the $16.0 billion guidance issued in June\, driven by strong demand for custom AI accelerators and networking chips\, with new business disclosed from Apple and OpenAI\, according to CNBC. Infrastructure software revenue of $8.75 billion\, however\, came in slightly below the $8.82 billion StreetAccount consensus. Gross margin fell around 210 basis points sequentially as custom accelerator and high-bandwidth memory content grew\, a trend management said would continue into the fourth quarter. \nThe scenario that materialised was a beat on the current quarter combined with a guidance figure below analyst expectations. Broadcom guided fourth-quarter revenue to approximately $34.8 billion\, up 93% year on year but short of the $35.03 billion analysts had expected\, with non-GAAP operating margin held at around 66%\, roughly flat with a year earlier. Management also outlined longer-term targets\, telling investors on the earnings call that it expects AI revenue to double to approximately $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and double again to $230 billion in fiscal 2028. \nMarket Reaction\nBroadcom shares fell around 5% to 6% in extended trading on September 2\, 2026\, as the softer-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue guidance overshadowed the third-quarter beat\, according to CNBC. The stock extended losses into the following session\, trading around $354\, down roughly 3.5% premarket on September 3\, 2026\, according to Investing.com. \nAnalysts framed the move as a valuation reset rather than a break in the AI investment thesis\, given that near-term execution is being measured against very high growth expectations already priced into the shares. Broadcom shares had gained about 6% year to date through September 2\, 2026\, lagging the S&P 500’s roughly 12% gain over the same period\, according to the Associated Press. The pullback in Broadcom was watched closely across the semiconductor sector\, with peers such as Nvidia and AMD moving modestly on the day as investors reassessed the pace of AI infrastructure spending among hyperscalers. \nWhat this means for your money now\nFor most retail investors and savers\, Broadcom’s results do not change the broader economic picture directly\, since this is a single company earnings report rather than a macroeconomic data point. Those holding AVGO shares directly\, through a fund\, or via a technology-focused pension allocation saw some short-term volatility\, with the stock falling after hours despite beating on revenue and profit\, because the market focused on the softer fourth-quarter guidance relative to elevated expectations. \nThe wider signal is that AI-related capital spending by large technology companies remains strong\, with Broadcom guiding AI revenue to roughly double again over the next two fiscal years. This can support continued investment and hiring in the semiconductor and cloud infrastructure supply chain\, which has knock-on effects for related equities and funds held in workplace pensions and index trackers\, though this single report does not change interest rate expectations\, mortgage rates or currency markets on its own.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/avgo-earnings-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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