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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260814T083000
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DTSTAMP:20260825T104613Z
CREATED:20260812T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104613Z
UID:1308-1786696200-1786699800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Retail Sales August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE): -0.6% MoM vs +0.1% expected; ex-autos: -0.3%; control group: -0.4%; total $763.6bn. (Friday\, August 14\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet available\nActual\n-0.6% MoM vs +0.1% expected; ex-autos: -0.3%; control group: -0.4%; total $763.6bn.\n\nFull schedule and background: US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE). \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE)Next US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) →\nUpdate (14 August 2026): The US Census Bureau released Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for July 2026 on Friday\, August 14\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Retail sales fell 0.6% month on month\, the largest monthly decline in more than a year\, sharply missing the +0.1% consensus forecast. The miss raised concerns about the health of the US consumer ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nFriday\, August 14\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nData Covered\nJuly 2026 retail and food services sales\n\n\nPublished By\nUS Census Bureau\n\n\nPrior Reading (MoM)\n+0.5% (April 2026)\n\n\nPrior Reading (YoY)\n+4.9% (April 2026)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh\n\n\n\nWhat is the US Retail Sales Report?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services\, commonly known as retail sales\, is published by the US Census Bureau each month and provides the earliest estimate of consumer spending at US retail establishments. The report covers sales at all types of retailers\, from motor vehicle dealers and petrol stations to food and beverage stores\, clothing outlets\, and online retailers. Retail trade accounts for a substantial share of US personal consumption\, which itself represents approximately 70% of gross domestic product\, making the retail sales report one of the most watched leading indicators of economic health. \nThe report is published as an advance estimate\, typically released around 12 to 14 days after the reference month ends. It is subsequently revised in the Monthly Retail Trade survey. The advance estimate is subject to revision\, but financial markets react primarily to this initial release since it is the first available reading. The headline figure covers total retail and food services sales\, but economists also monitor the “control group” measure (which excludes motor vehicles\, petrol stations\, building materials\, and food services) as it maps more closely to the consumer spending component of GDP. \nFor August 14\, the Census Bureau will release July 2026 data. July is typically a strong month for retail activity\, with summer consumer spending on travel\, electronics\, and seasonal goods. The figure will be scrutinised against the backdrop of persistently elevated PCE inflation and tight credit conditions to assess whether the US consumer is holding up or beginning to retrench. \nUS Retail Sales Release: August 14\, 2026\nConsensus forecasts for the August 14 release will be available in the week prior to the report\, informed by the May and June retail sales data that precede it. The most recent confirmed monthly reading (April 2026: +0.5% MoM) showed a moderation after the unusually large March jump of +1.7%\, which was driven by a record 15.5% surge in petrol station receipts amid elevated fuel prices in early 2026. Markets will be looking to assess whether underlying consumer demand\, stripped of the petrol price distortion\, has remained stable. \nThe August 14 release falls at an important juncture. The US CPI Report for August 2026\, published on August 12\, will be available just two days earlier\, giving traders an initial inflation read before the retail spending data arrives. Together\, CPI (August 12) and retail sales (August 14) form a two-day data cluster that will heavily influence near-term assessments of the US economy ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning August 27. \nThe US Employment Situation for August 2026\, released August 7\, will be the other key input for traders building their position ahead of Jackson Hole. Strong jobs data followed by firm retail sales would paint a resilient consumer picture and reduce the probability of a near-term rate cut. \nWhy This Retail Sales Release Matters\nRetail sales in July 2026 will provide the first hard evidence of how summer consumer spending is tracking. Economists use monthly retail sales data alongside personal consumption expenditures figures to estimate Q3 GDP growth in real time. A strong July reading\, particularly in the control group\, would support a robust Q3 GDP estimate and suggest the US economy is absorbing the Fed’s tightening without significant consumer-side weakness. \nConversely\, a weak July retail sales print would add to the growing body of evidence that high PCE inflation is eroding real consumer purchasing power. Core PCE has risen from 2.7% in October 2025 to 3.3% by April 2026\, and if nominal retail spending growth is slowing while price levels remain elevated\, it implies real consumer spending is contracting. That would be a meaningful signal for policymakers debating whether restrictive rates are doing more harm than good. \nThe petrol station component bears watching. March 2026 saw a 15.5% surge in petrol receipts that distorted the headline retail number significantly. If fuel prices have stabilised or declined into July\, the petrol component should be a neutral or negative contributor\, allowing the underlying trend in discretionary spending to be more visible. Markets will strip out this component and focus on the core retail sales figures. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nHeadline retail sales above +0.6% MoM – A strong reading above consensus would signal consumer resilience and reduce the probability of a September rate cut. Likely to support equities in the consumer discretionary and financial sectors\, lift the dollar\, and push Treasury yields slightly higher.\nHeadline retail sales between +0.2% and +0.5% MoM – A solid but unspectacular reading consistent with modest consumer spending growth. Market reaction is likely to be muted; expectations for the Fed’s September decision will be informed primarily by the CPI and PCE reports.\nHeadline retail sales at or below 0.0% MoM – A flat or negative reading would raise concerns about consumer health and increase calls for a rate cut. Likely to weigh on equities\, push Treasury yields lower\, and potentially weaken the dollar.\n\nThe control group measure (ex-autos\, ex-gas\, ex-building materials\, ex-food services) will be the most important single number in the report\, as it feeds directly into the GDP consumption component. Analysts tracking real-time Q3 GDP estimates will revise their figures in the minutes following the 8:30 a.m. release based on the control group outcome. \nOutcome (14 August 2026): Retail sales came in at -0.6% MoM\, placing the result in the flat or negative scenario above. The miss was the largest in more than a year and ended a six-month streak of consecutive monthly gains in the control group. \nResults: US Retail Sales July 2026\nUS retail sales fell 0.6% month on month in July 2026\, according to the Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales release (14 August 2026). Total retail turnover came in at $763.6 billion\, down from a revised $768.6 billion in June. Year-on-year growth slowed to +5.0% from +6.7%. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.3% (consensus: +0.2%). The control group measure (ex-autos\, ex-gas\, ex-building materials\, ex-food services) fell 0.4%\, its first negative reading since September 2025 and the end of a six-month consecutive monthly gain streak. Motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%; non-store (online) retailers fell 2.2%; electronics and appliances fell 0.5%; petrol stations fell 0.9%. Partial offsets came from clothing stores (+1.9%) and food services (+0.5%). Source: US Census Bureau\, August 14\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nUS equities pulled back on the miss: the S&P 500 fell 0.2%\, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%\, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Treasury yields moved higher counterintuitively\, as persistent inflation concerns outweighed the growth slowdown signal from the retail data. The 10-year yield rose approximately 6 to 7 basis points to 4.696%; the 30-year yield rose approximately 6 basis points to 5.27%; the 2-year yield rose approximately 3 basis points to 4.17%. The US dollar index retreated to 99.50\, down 0.4 to 0.7% against major peers\, as the weaker spending data reinforced a more cautious near-term economic outlook despite the yield moves. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe control group contraction reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September meeting and reinforces a more cautious consumer spending outlook heading into Q3 2026. The counterintuitive rise in bond yields on the day reflects that markets remain more concerned about sticky inflation than slowing growth\, keeping the Fed in a difficult position. For investors\, the combination of soft spending and elevated inflation points toward continued volatility in rate-sensitive sectors. The data will feed directly into discussions at the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27 to 29)\, where the Fed Chair is likely to emphasise a data-dependent approach rather than signal a clear rate move. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Month\nData Month\nMoM Change\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nApril 2026\n+0.5%\n+4.9% YoY; moderation after March spike\n\n\nApril 2026\nMarch 2026\n+1.7%\nAbove +1.4% consensus; petrol stations +15.5%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nFebruary 2026\n+0.7%\nUpwardly revised; solid underlying demand\n\n\nJan 2026\nDecember 2025\n~0.0%\nEssentially flat; holiday season normalisation\n\n\n\nThe March 2026 spike in retail sales\, driven by a 15.5% surge in petrol station receipts\, created significant noise in the headline figures. Underlying consumer demand\, as measured by the control group\, has been more stable. Markets have learned to look through petrol-driven distortions when assessing the fundamental trend in consumer spending. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of August 14\, market positioning will be shaped by the July employment report (August 7) and the August CPI print (August 12). A strong NFP figure followed by firm CPI and solid retail sales would form a “trifecta” of resilient US economic data that significantly diminishes the probability of a September rate cut. In that scenario\, the US dollar would be expected to strengthen against major peers\, Treasury yields would rise\, and the equity market may see rotation from rate-sensitive sectors toward financials and energy. \nWeaker-than-expected readings across these three data points would build the case for a September cut and produce the opposite market reaction: lower yields\, a softer dollar\, and rotation into growth and technology stocks. The proximity of the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27-29) means these August data prints carry additional weight\, as they directly inform the narrative the Fed Chair presents at the most watched central banking conference of the year. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – Released two days earlier on August 12\, providing the July inflation reading that pairs with retail sales to assess the health of the US consumer.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 – Released August 26\, the PCE report provides a complementary consumer spending and inflation read for July 2026.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The symposium begins August 27\, two weeks after the retail sales release; the July spending data will be directly referenced in discussions about the economic outlook.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the US retail sales report measure?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services measures total receipts at US retail businesses\, including motor vehicle dealers\, fuel stations\, food stores\, clothing retailers\, and online sellers. It covers sales of goods (not services) and is the first monthly estimate of consumer spending on goods\, making it a leading indicator for both GDP and broader economic trends. \nWhen is the August 2026 retail sales report released?\nThe Census Bureau will publish the July 2026 advance retail sales report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday\, August 14\, 2026. \nWhat is the “control group” in retail sales and why does it matter?\nThe retail sales control group excludes motor vehicles\, petrol stations\, building materials\, and food services. This measure feeds directly into the personal consumption component of GDP calculations\, making it the figure economists use when estimating quarterly economic growth in real time. A strong control group reading is a direct positive signal for Q3 2026 GDP estimates.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-retail-sales-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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