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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260813T083000
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DTSTAMP:20260825T104612Z
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UID:1324-1786609800-1786613400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Producer Price Index August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Producer Price Index: Flat (0.0% MoM); 4.7% YoY (vs +0.2% MoM / 4.9% YoY consensus). Core ex-food/energy: +0.2% MoM\, +4.2% YoY. (Thursday\, August 13\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\nFlat (0.0% MoM); 4.7% YoY (vs +0.2% MoM / 4.9% YoY consensus). Core ex-food/energy: +0.2% MoM\, +4.2% YoY.\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Producer Price IndexNext US Producer Price Index →\nUpdate (13 August 2026): The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2026 on Thursday\, August 13\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. Producer prices came in flat on the month (0.0% MoM) and rose 4.7% year-on-year\, below consensus expectations of +0.2% MoM and +4.9% YoY. The result marked a meaningful deceleration from the 6.0% year-on-year readings of April and May 2026\, offering the Federal Reserve a more favourable inflation picture ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nThursday\, August 13\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\n8:30 AM ET\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\n\n\nReference Month\nJuly 2026\n\n\nPrior Reading (May 2026)\n+6.0% year-over-year\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Is the Producer Price Index?\nThe Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\, the PPI measures price changes at the wholesale or producer stage before goods and services reach consumers. Because producers typically pass cost increases along the supply chain over time\, rising PPI is a widely recognised leading indicator of future consumer price inflation. \nThe BLS publishes three main PPI measures: final demand (the headline figure\, covering goods and services sold to end users)\, intermediate demand (prices at earlier production stages)\, and crude materials (raw commodities). The core PPI for final demand\, which excludes volatile food and energy prices\, is closely monitored by policymakers and economists as a measure of underlying inflationary trends. The report is released approximately two weeks after the reference month ends\, positioning the August 13 publication as one of the earliest major inflation data points for July 2026. \nPPI Release: August 13\, 2026\nThe August 13 report will cover July 2026 producer prices. The May 2026 reading showed PPI final demand rising 6.0% year-over-year for the second consecutive month\, maintaining the elevated level first reached in April 2026 when the annual rate surged from 4.3% to 6.0%. This acceleration from the 3.0% full-year 2025 average has been driven by tariff cost pass-through to manufacturers\, energy price increases related to geopolitical tensions\, and elevated transportation and warehousing costs. \nBy August 13\, the June 2026 PPI reading (released July 15) will be available and will provide the most recent prior benchmark. No formal consensus estimate for July 2026 PPI is available at time of writing. The key question for the August 13 release will be whether producer prices have begun to ease as tariff impacts stabilise and year-on-year comparisons grow more demanding (base effects)\, or whether new cost pressures have sustained the elevated 6%-plus annual rate into the summer months. The US CPI Report August 2026 on August 12 will precede the PPI by one day\, setting the inflationary context for markets heading into the August 13 release. \nWhy This PPI Release Matters\nBy August 2026\, the trajectory of producer price inflation will be a central input to Federal Reserve policy discussions for the remainder of the year. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026\, typically held in late August (August 27-29)\, will gather global central bankers and economists to assess the economic outlook. The August 13 PPI release will be one of the final major inflation data points before that gathering\, and a reading that diverges significantly from expectations could significantly alter the tone of discussions at Jackson Hole. \nFor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)\, sustained PPI inflation above 5% would complicate any return to rate-cutting mode. The transmission from producer prices to consumer prices runs on a lag of several months: elevated PPI in spring and summer 2026 would typically be expected to show up in CPI by autumn 2026\, potentially keeping consumer inflation above target. If the August PPI confirms that producer price pressures are abating\, it would strengthen the argument for rate cuts at the September FOMC meeting. \nFor equities\, high PPI is a margin concern for industrial companies\, consumer goods manufacturers\, and retailers who must decide whether to absorb higher costs or pass them on to customers. A sharp deceleration in PPI would be a meaningful positive for corporate earnings forecasts\, particularly for companies in sectors with pricing power constraints. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove 6.5% year-over-year: A further acceleration would confirm that producer price pressures are not abating and signal continued risk of consumer price increases in autumn 2026. Bond yields would likely rise\, rate-cut expectations for September would fall\, and equity sentiment could turn risk-off.\nIn line (approximately 5.0% to 6.5% year-over-year): A reading similar to May and June levels would suggest producer price inflation is high but plateauing. Markets would likely take this as neutral\, with attention shifting to whether base effects begin to pull the annual rate lower in coming months.\nBelow 5.0% year-over-year: A meaningful deceleration would be a positive surprise for markets\, indicating that the worst of the tariff and energy-driven producer price surge may be behind the economy. Bond markets would rally\, equities would broadly benefit\, and rate-cut expectations would increase.\n\nWithin the release\, the services PPI component carries particular Fed relevance. Services producer prices are less affected by tariffs than goods prices and are more directly linked to labour cost trends. If services PPI remains elevated while goods PPI eases\, it signals that labour-market-driven inflation is becoming the primary inflation driver\, a more persistent concern than tariff-driven goods price shocks. \nOutcome (13 August 2026): The July 2026 result of 4.7% year-on-year placed in the below 5.0% year-over-year scenario above\, a positive surprise for markets and the biggest single-month deceleration in the annual rate since January 2026. \nResults: US Producer Price Index July 2026\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that final demand PPI was flat month on month in July 2026 (0.0% MoM)\, undershooting the consensus forecast of +0.2% MoM. On a year-on-year basis\, the headline rate fell to 4.7% from an upwardly revised 5.3% in June 2026\, also below the 4.9% consensus estimate. The result is the lowest year-on-year reading in four months and represents the largest single-month deceleration in the annual rate since January 2026. \nThe softness in the headline was driven primarily by a 3.1% decline in final demand energy prices\, with gasoline falling 5.7%. Final demand goods fell 0.7% month on month overall. Final demand services rose 0.2%\, with portfolio management fees rising and transportation and warehousing costs easing. Core PPI excluding food and energy came in at +0.2% MoM and +4.2% YoY\, in line with expectations. The broader core measure excluding food\, energy\, and trade services rose 0.4% MoM\, signalling some residual stickiness in underlying producer cost pressures outside of energy. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics\, August 13\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nEquities rallied on the softer-than-expected PPI print\, which followed a benign CPI reading the previous day (August 12). The S&P 500 rose 0.5 to 0.7%\, reaching a fresh record near 7\,800. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.15% and the Russell 2000 hit a record high\, with small-cap companies benefiting from reduced pressure on floating-rate debt. The 10-year Treasury yield fell approximately 3 to 5 basis points to around 4.64 to 4.68%. The US dollar index was essentially flat near 100. On CME FedWatch\, the probability of a September rate hold rose to approximately 60 to 68%\, up from around 46 to 50% earlier in the week\, as back-to-back soft inflation prints reduced the case for further Fed tightening. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe July 2026 PPI confirms that the spike in producer price inflation seen in the first half of 2026\, driven largely by tariff pass-through and energy cost increases\, is fading. The deceleration from 6.0% to 4.7% year-on-year removes a significant upside risk to the consumer price outlook for autumn 2026. For bond investors\, easing producer prices reduce the risk of a sustained rise in long-term yields. For equity investors\, softening goods price pressures improve the margin outlook for consumer-facing companies and manufacturers. The Federal Reserve now heads into the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27 to 29) with two consecutive soft inflation prints\, giving policymakers more flexibility to signal a potential move toward rate reductions later in 2026 without credibility risk. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nPPI Final Demand (YoY)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nJune 2025\n+2.3%\nPre-tariff baseline\n\n\nAugust 2025\n+2.6%\nEarly tariff pass-through\n\n\nFull Year 2025\n+3.0%\nAnnual average\n\n\nMarch 2026\n+4.3%\nAcceleration begins\n\n\nApril 2026\n+6.0%\nHighest since Dec 2022\n\n\nMay 2026\n+6.0%\nMaintained at elevated level\n\n\n\nSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics. PPI Final Demand year-over-year percentage change. June and July 2026 readings not yet available at time of writing. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of the August 13 release\, rate futures will reflect expectations shaped by the July 15 PPI (June data)\, the August 12 CPI (July data)\, and the August 7 non-farm payrolls report. A combination of strong employment\, high CPI\, and high PPI on August 13 would suggest that the Fed holds rates at the September meeting. A combination of weaker employment\, lower CPI\, and decelerating PPI would open the door for a rate cut discussion. The August 13 PPI will be the final major inflation data point before the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27-29\, giving it elevated market significance in a traditionally low-liquidity summer trading period. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – Released August 12\, one day before the PPI\, providing the consumer price context for the August 13 producer price data.\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) August 2026 – Released August 7\, the labour market data provides essential context for interpreting whether cost pressures are demand-driven or supply-driven.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The August 27-29 gathering of global central bankers will be the next major policy signal after the August 13 PPI\, with the data feeding directly into policy discussions.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nHow does PPI differ from CPI?\nThe PPI measures price changes from the producer’s perspective\, tracking what sellers receive for their goods and services. The CPI measures price changes from the consumer’s perspective\, covering what households pay for a basket of goods and services. PPI is released approximately one day before CPI each month and is often used as a leading indicator of future consumer price trends. \nWhen is the August 2026 PPI report released?\nThe BLS will release the Producer Price Index for July 2026 on Thursday\, August 13\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The report will be available on the BLS website at bls.gov/ppi immediately following publication. \nWhat causes PPI to rise?\nProducer prices can rise due to higher input costs (raw materials\, energy\, labour)\, supply chain disruptions\, tariffs on imported intermediate goods\, or strong end-user demand that gives producers pricing power. In 2026\, the primary drivers have been tariff-related cost increases on goods producers\, higher energy prices\, and elevated transportation costs. These factors tend to pass through to consumer prices over subsequent months\, though the magnitude and speed of pass-through depends on industry competition and consumer demand sensitivity.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-producer-price-index-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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