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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260528T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260528T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104540Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104540Z
UID:1191-1779957000-1779960600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Gross Domestic Product May 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Gross Domestic Product: 1.6% annualised (second estimate\, revised down from 2.0% advance) (Thursday\, May 28\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers Q1 2026 data. \n\nActual\n1.6% annualised (second estimate\, revised down from 2.0% advance)\n\nFull schedule and background: US Gross Domestic Product. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Gross Domestic ProductNext US Gross Domestic Product →\nThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the second estimate of first-quarter 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday\, May 28\, 2026 at 08:30 EDT. The economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.6% in Q1 2026\, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the advance estimate of 2.0% published in April. The result fell short of the consensus forecast of approximately 2.1%\, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Markets responded with modest gains\, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 0.44% in the hours following the release\, partly supported by softer personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data released simultaneously. \nWhat is US Gross Domestic Product?\nGross domestic product is the broadest measure of economic output\, capturing the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within the United States over a given period. The BEA publishes GDP estimates on a quarterly basis\, with three successive releases for each quarter: the advance estimate (approximately one month after the quarter ends)\, the second estimate (roughly two months after quarter-end)\, and the third and final estimate (approximately three months after quarter-end). \nThe second estimate incorporates more complete source data than the advance\, including updated figures on consumer spending\, business investment\, and trade. Revisions between the advance and second estimates can be significant\, particularly when incoming data on retail trade\, services\, and inventories shift materially. The BEA’s GDP figures are widely regarded as the definitive scorecard for the health of the US economy and inform Federal Reserve policy\, fiscal planning\, and global investment decisions. \nEach quarterly GDP release measures activity on an annualised basis\, meaning the quarterly rate of change is projected over four quarters. A reading of 1.6% means that if the economy continued at Q1’s pace for a full year\, GDP would expand by 1.6%. \nQ1 2026 GDP Second Estimate: May 28\, 2026\nThe BEA’s second estimate confirmed that real GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.6% in the January-to-March quarter\, revised down from the 2.0% advance reading released on April 30\, 2026. The revision reflected downward adjustments to both consumer spending and private investment. \nPersonal consumption expenditures\, which account for roughly 70% of GDP\, were revised down to a growth rate of 1.4% from the previously reported 1.6%. The revision to consumer spending was driven by a downward adjustment to services expenditure\, partially offset by an upward revision to goods spending. Nonresidential fixed investment growth was revised slightly lower to 10.1% from 10.4%\, primarily reflecting slower growth in intellectual property products. Residential investment\, however\, came in better than initially estimated\, with the decline revised to -6.2% from the advance’s -8.0%. \nGovernment spending was unchanged at 4.4% growth\, providing a solid contribution to overall activity. Exports contributed positively to the headline figure\, while the increase in imports\, which subtract from GDP in the national accounts\, weighed on the overall result. \nCorporate Profits\nThe second estimate also included the first reading of Q1 2026 corporate profits. Profits from current production rose by $40.4 billion in the first quarter\, a sharp deceleration from the $246.9 billion increase recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The slowdown in profit growth reflected a combination of higher input costs\, softer consumer demand\, and the lingering effects of tariff-related uncertainty on business margins. \nDomestic profits fell across both the financial and non-financial sectors\, while profits from the rest of the world held roughly steady. The weak corporate profit reading raised concerns about forward earnings guidance for 2026\, adding a cautionary note to an otherwise resilient equity market. \nHistorical Context\nThe 1.6% second estimate marked a recovery from Q4 2025’s 0.5% reading but remained well below the pace seen during the mid-2025 rebound. The prior two years had exhibited significant volatility in quarterly growth\, with contractions and sharp rebounds reflecting the effects of fiscal policy changes\, tariff disruptions\, and fluctuating consumer confidence. \n\n\n\nQuarter\nConsensus\nActual (Annualised)\nChange vs Prior\n\n\n\n\nQ1 2024\n2.4%\n1.6%\n-0.8pp\n\n\nQ2 2024\n2.0%\n3.0%\n+1.4pp\n\n\nQ3 2024\n3.0%\n3.1%\n+0.1pp\n\n\nQ4 2024\n2.6%\n2.4%\n-0.7pp\n\n\nQ1 2025\n1.0%\n-0.5%\n-2.9pp\n\n\nQ2 2025\n2.5%\n3.8%\n+4.3pp\n\n\nQ3 2025\n3.5%\n4.4%\n+0.6pp\n\n\nQ4 2025\n1.5%\n0.5%\n-3.9pp\n\n\nQ1 2026\n~2.1%\n1.6%\n+1.1pp\n\n\n\nWhy the Revision Mattered\nA downward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the advance to the second estimate was notable given that consensus had expected a slight upward revision to around 2.1%. The miss suggested that the initial April reading had overstated underlying momentum\, particularly in consumer-facing services. With the PCE price index holding at 4.5% and core PCE revised up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%\, the simultaneous picture of slower growth and persistently elevated inflation added complexity to the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus. \nThe data contributed to an ongoing debate among economists about the risk of stagflation: growth running below potential while inflation remained well above the Fed’s 2% target. Corporate profits slowing sharply in the same quarter added a further cautionary signal about the sustainability of the equity market’s 2025-2026 rally. \nFor the Federal Reserve (the Fed)\, the second estimate reinforced the case for keeping rates on hold. Cutting rates with inflation at 4.5% would risk entrenching price expectations; raising them with growth at 1.6% and corporate profits under pressure would risk tipping the economy into contraction. The FOMC rate decision on June 17-18\, 2026 was widely expected to result in another hold\, with the Fed watching subsequent data for clearer signals of either disinflation or a growth deterioration. \nMarket Reaction\nUS equity indices rose modestly following the 08:30 EDT release on May 28. The S&P 500 gained approximately 0.44% to around 7\,553 in mid-morning trading\, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced by a similar margin. However\, analysts noted that the rally could not be attributed solely to the GDP and PCE data\, as geopolitical headlines related to a potential US-Iran agreement were also circulating at the same time. \nBond markets reflected a more cautious read. Treasury yields eased modestly on the softer growth figure\, with the 10-year yield declining a few basis points. The market interpretation was that weaker-than-expected GDP reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike\, even as inflation remained uncomfortably high. The US dollar weakened slightly against major currencies in the immediate aftermath of the release. Commodities were broadly steady\, with gold ticking higher as real yields declined marginally. \nOptions markets had not priced in a significant downside surprise of this magnitude in the GDP figure\, and the reaction was therefore somewhat muted relative to the degree of the miss. Traders appeared willing to look through the revision\, focusing instead on the simultaneous upcoming June inflation data as the more critical determinant of near-term Fed policy. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The Fed’s June meeting considered the Q1 GDP revision and persistent inflation in determining whether to hold\, hike\, or cut the federal funds rate.\nUS CPI Report June 2026 – The June Consumer Price Index release provided an updated inflation reading that markets were watching alongside GDP data to assess the broader economic trajectory.\nUS Employment Situation June 2026 – The June non-farm payrolls report offered a complementary view of economic health alongside the GDP revision\, particularly regarding labour market resilience.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat did the Q1 2026 GDP second estimate show?\nThe BEA’s second estimate\, released on May 28\, 2026\, showed that the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.6% in Q1 2026\, revised down 0.4 percentage points from the advance estimate of 2.0% published in April. The revision was driven by downward adjustments to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment. \nWhy was the actual result lower than the consensus forecast?\nThe consensus forecast\, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey\, anticipated a slight upward revision to approximately 2.1%. The actual result fell short primarily because incoming data on services consumption and business investment came in weaker than the source data available at the time of the advance estimate. These revisions are normal and reflect the BEA incorporating more complete reports from government agencies and private surveys. \nWhat does the 1.6% GDP reading mean for Federal Reserve policy?\nThe combination of 1.6% GDP growth and a PCE price index of 4.5% left the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. Growth at this level does not signal an imminent recession\, but it is below the Fed’s long-run estimate of potential growth of around 1.8-2.0%. With inflation more than double the 2% target\, the Fed faced pressure to keep rates elevated\, and the second GDP estimate reinforced expectations that the June 2026 FOMC meeting would result in rates being held unchanged. \nFeatured image: Photo by Nick Chong on Unsplash.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-gross-domestic-product-may-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260528T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260528T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104638Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104638Z
UID:1194-1779957000-1779960600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) May 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE): Headline PCE 3.8% YoY; Core PCE 3.3% YoY; Core MoM +0.2% (below 0.3% consensus) (Thursday\, May 28\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers April 2026 data. \n\nActual\nHeadline PCE 3.8% YoY; Core PCE 3.3% YoY; Core MoM +0.2% (below 0.3% consensus)\n\nFull schedule and background: US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE). \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE)Next US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) →\nThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April 2026 on Thursday\, May 28\, 2026 at 08:30 EDT. The report\, which provides the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge\, showed headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation at 3.8% year-over-year\, up from 3.5% in March and the highest reading since May 2023. Core PCE\, which excludes food and energy prices\, rose 3.3% year-over-year\, edging up from 3.2% in March. On a monthly basis\, core PCE rose 0.2%\, below the 0.3% consensus estimate\, a softer print that contributed to a modest positive equity market reaction on the day. The simultaneous release of the Q1 2026 GDP second estimate and this PCE data combined to define the economic narrative heading into the summer. \nWhat is the Personal Income and Outlays Report?\nThe BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report is published monthly and covers three principal data series: personal income\, personal spending (measured by PCE)\, and the PCE price index. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) preferred measure of inflation\, distinct from the more widely publicised Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it adjusts for changes in consumer behaviour and covers a broader range of expenditures including those made on behalf of households\, such as employer-provided healthcare. \nThe report is released on the last business day of the month following the reference period. The May 28\, 2026 release covered data for April 2026. The PCE price index is considered particularly important because the Fed’s 2% inflation target is defined in terms of PCE\, not CPI. Markets therefore treat each monthly reading as direct evidence for or against further changes to the federal funds rate. \nWithin the PCE inflation data\, market participants pay close attention to the core PCE figure\, which strips out volatile food and energy prices to provide a cleaner signal of underlying price pressures. A rising core PCE reading suggests that inflation is broad-based and persistent\, while a declining reading supports the case for rate cuts. \nApril 2026 PCE Release: May 28\, 2026\nThe headline PCE price index for April 2026 rose 3.8% year-over-year\, accelerating from 3.5% in March and reaching its highest annual rate since May 2023. On a monthly basis\, headline PCE increased 0.4%\, below the consensus estimate of 0.5% and representing a deceleration from March’s 0.7% monthly surge\, which had been the sharpest monthly gain since June 2022. The softer monthly reading provided some reassurance that the March spike was partially driven by one-off factors. \nCore PCE inflation\, the Fed’s preferred metric\, rose 3.3% year-over-year in April\, up from 3.2% in March and the highest reading since October 2023. On a monthly basis\, core PCE increased 0.2%\, below the 0.3% consensus estimate\, according to Bloomberg polling. This monthly miss was notable as it suggested that underlying price pressures may have moderated slightly relative to what the market had anticipated. \nPersonal spending rose $111.1 billion (0.5%) in April\, driven primarily by goods consumption. Personal income was essentially flat\, declining less than $0.1 billion on the month. Disposable personal income fell $19.9 billion (0.1%)\, reflecting higher tax payments. The personal saving rate stood at 2.6%\, down from the prior month\, as households increased spending despite stagnant incomes. \nWhy This Release Mattered\nThe May 28 PCE report carried particular significance because it was released simultaneously with the BEA’s Q1 2026 GDP second estimate\, which revised growth down to 1.6% from 2.0%. The combination of slower growth and still-elevated inflation reinforced concerns about a stagflationary environment\, where the Fed faces the difficult task of managing price stability without pushing the economy into recession. \nThe softer monthly core PCE print of 0.2% was welcomed by markets because it suggested the worst of the tariff-driven price acceleration may have passed. The quarterly PCE price index embedded in the GDP release had shown Q1 2026 inflation at an annualised rate of 4.5%\, a level clearly incompatible with the Fed’s 2% target. The April monthly reading\, while still elevated on an annual basis\, offered tentative evidence that the pace of price increases was moderating from Q1’s elevated level. \nThe FOMC rate decision on June 17-18\, 2026 remained central to how markets interpreted the data. With the federal funds rate at its current level\, the Fed needed clear and sustained evidence of disinflation before considering cuts\, and needed reassurance that growth was not deteriorating to a level that would force an emergency easing. The April PCE data offered neither a green light for cuts nor a compelling case for a hike. \nPCE Inflation: Recent History\n\n\n\nMonth\nHeadline PCE YoY\nCore PCE YoY\nCore PCE MoM\n\n\n\n\nQ1 2026 (annualised)\n4.5%\n4.4%\nn/a\n\n\nFebruary 2026\nn/a\n~3.1%\nn/a\n\n\nMarch 2026\n3.5%\n3.2%\n+0.7%\n\n\nApril 2026 (actual)\n3.8%\n3.3%\n+0.2%\n\n\nApril 2026 (consensus)\n~3.9%\n3.3%\n+0.3%\n\n\n\nSource: BEA\, Bloomberg\, FactSet. Q1 2026 annualised figures from BEA GDP second estimate. “~” denotes estimated value not independently verified against primary source. \nMarket Reaction\nEquity markets responded positively to the May 28 data\, with the softer monthly core PCE print of 0.2% providing relief to bond-sensitive growth stocks. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.44% in mid-morning trading to around 7\,553\, and the Nasdaq Composite gained by a similar margin. Analysts noted that the equity market reaction reflected not only the PCE and GDP releases but also concurrent geopolitical developments\, including reports of progress on a potential US-Iran agreement\, making it difficult to attribute price moves solely to the economic data. \nBond markets showed a clearer reaction to the softer inflation print. The 10-year Treasury yield eased modestly following the release as traders slightly reduced the probability of near-term rate hikes. Futures implied odds of a June rate cut remained low\, but the market interpretation was that the softer monthly core PCE reduced the urgency for additional tightening. The US dollar weakened slightly against the euro\, sterling\, and yen in the aftermath of the release. Gold ticked marginally higher as real yields declined. \nFederal Reserve officials had been watching monthly PCE data closely for signs that the Q1 surge in inflation\, partly attributed to tariff pass-through effects\, would moderate. The April 0.2% monthly core reading offered tentative encouragement but was a single data point. Markets continued to monitor the June US CPI Report as additional evidence of the inflation trajectory before the June FOMC meeting. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The Fed’s June meeting weighed April’s PCE inflation data against slowing GDP growth in determining whether to hold\, cut\, or hike the federal funds rate.\nUS CPI Report June 2026 – The CPI report for May 2026 provided additional inflation data ahead of the June FOMC decision\, complementing the April PCE reading.\nUS Employment Situation June 2026 – The June payrolls report offered insight into whether labour market strength was sustaining consumer spending despite rising prices.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the PCE price index and why does the Federal Reserve use it?\nThe PCE price index measures changes in prices paid for goods and services by US households and non-profit organisations serving households. The Fed prefers it over CPI because it adjusts for consumer substitution (when people switch from expensive to cheaper items)\, covers a broader range of spending including third-party payments like employer-provided health insurance\, and is less volatile. The Fed’s 2% inflation target is defined in terms of the PCE price index. \nWhen is the Personal Income and Outlays report released?\nThe BEA publishes the Personal Income and Outlays report monthly\, approximately four weeks after the reference month ends. The May 28\, 2026 release covered data for April 2026. The report is released at 08:30 EDT on the scheduled day\, alongside other economic data as determined by the BEA’s release schedule. \nWhat does the April 2026 PCE reading mean for future interest rate decisions?\nThe April 2026 core PCE reading of 3.3% year-over-year remained well above the Fed’s 2% target\, suggesting that rate cuts were unlikely in the near term. However\, the softer monthly print of 0.2% versus the expected 0.3% indicated that the pace of price increases may be moderating from Q1’s elevated pace. The Fed needed several months of consistent moderation in monthly readings before it could consider easing policy\, meaning rates were likely to remain unchanged at the June 2026 meeting. \nFeatured image: Photo by Arturo Rey on Unsplash.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-personal-income-and-outlays-pce-may-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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