BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//financecalendar.com - ECPv6.15.20//NONSGML v1.0//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH X-WR-CALNAME:financecalendar.com X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://www.financecalendar.com X-WR-CALDESC:Events for financecalendar.com REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H X-Robots-Tag:noindex X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:UTC BEGIN:STANDARD TZOFFSETFROM:+0000 TZOFFSETTO:+0000 TZNAME:UTC DTSTART:20250101T000000 END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20260826T000000 DTEND;TZID=UTC:20260826T235959 DTSTAMP:20260612T000220 CREATED:20260607T092808Z LAST-MODIFIED:20260607T092808Z UID:1305-1787702400-1787788799@www.financecalendar.com SUMMARY:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 DESCRIPTION:Home\n ›\n Events\n ›\n Economic Indicators\n ›\n US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026\n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Economic Indicators \n \n \n High Impact\n \n \n US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026\n The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index\, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge\, alongside personal income and consumer spending data. The August 26 release falls on the day before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 opens\, making it one of the most closely watched PCE prints of the year: the Fed Chair will be speaking in Wyoming just 24 hours later with fresh inflation data in hand. As of April 2026\, core PCE stood at 3.3% year-on-year\, well above the Fed’s 2% target. \n \n \n \n Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 \n \n \n \n 6 min read\n \n \n \n \n Finance Calendar Editorial\n \n \n \n\n \n \n At a Glance\n \n \n Event\n US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026\n \n \n Date\n August 26\, 2026\n \n \n Category\n Economic Indicators\n \n \n Impact\n High\n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nWednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nData Covered\nJuly 2026 personal income and spending\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\n\n\nPrior Core PCE (YoY)\n3.3% (April 2026)\n\n\nFed Target\n2.0% (headline PCE)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh (amplified by proximity to Jackson Hole)\n\n\n\nWhat is the PCE Price Index?\nThe Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve (the Fed) uses for its official 2% target. Published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis\, PCE tracks price changes across the full range of goods and services consumed by US households\, including expenditures made on their behalf by employers and the government. This broader coverage distinguishes it from the Consumer Price Index (CPI)\, which measures only out-of-pocket consumer spending on a fixed basket of goods. \nPCE also adjusts for substitution effects over time\, reflecting how consumers shift their purchasing behaviour when certain goods become more or less expensive. This makes the PCE index more responsive to actual spending patterns\, and the Fed considers it a more accurate gauge of underlying inflation pressures. Core PCE\, which strips out volatile food and energy prices\, is the figure policymakers monitor most closely when assessing the pace of monetary tightening or easing. \nThe BEA releases the Personal Income and Outlays report monthly\, covering income\, spending\, and the PCE price indices. The August 26\, 2026 report will be the first official data point on July 2026 inflation\, income\, and consumer spending. Consensus forecasts are typically published in the week before the release by major financial data providers and survey organisations. \nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) Release: August 26\, 2026\nThe August 26 release arrives at an unusually significant moment in the economic calendar. It is published just one day before the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium opens on August 27. Fed Chair remarks at Jackson Hole\, traditionally delivered on the Friday morning of the symposium (August 28)\, will incorporate this fresh PCE data. Markets will be watching whether the July PCE print validates or challenges the narrative the Chair is likely to present\, creating a two-day window of elevated sensitivity around both the August 26 data and the August 28 keynote. \nConsensus forecasts for the August 26 release are not yet available; they will be published in the week before the report. The May 2026 and June 2026 PCE readings (released June 25 and July 30 respectively) will form the basis of expectations. On the same day\, the BEA will also publish the US GDP Q2 2026 second estimate\, which updates the advance estimate released on July 30 with revised data. The combination of inflation and growth data in a single morning will require traders to rapidly assess the implications for monetary policy direction. \nThe Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections placed year-end 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7%. Core PCE at 3.3% in April 2026 suggests the Fed is running well above its own forecast\, adding pressure to maintain restrictive policy settings throughout the remainder of the year. \nWhy This PCE Release Matters\nThe August PCE report is the last major inflation data point before the FOMC Rate Decision on September 16\, 2026. Together with the August CPI report (released August 12)\, it will form the core of the inflation evidence available to policymakers when deciding whether to hold\, cut\, or raise rates at September’s meeting. Market expectations for September will shift significantly on the basis of the August 26 PCE print. \nBeyond the immediate policy implications\, the spending component of the report provides critical context on the health of the US consumer. Real personal spending (adjusted for inflation) shows whether households are maintaining their purchasing power or pulling back. Given that core PCE has risen from 2.7% in October 2025 to 3.3% in April 2026\, the question of whether consumers are absorbing or reacting to higher prices has significant implications for Q3 2026 GDP growth. \nThe August release is also watched by global markets because the Jackson Hole symposium the following day draws central bankers from 70 countries. Any surprise in the PCE data will colour the conversations in Wyoming and may be referenced explicitly in speeches from the ECB\, Bank of England\, or Bank of Japan\, whose representatives will also be present. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nCore PCE above 3.5% YoY or above +0.3% MoM – Would indicate further acceleration in underlying inflation. Likely to weigh on equities\, lift Treasury yields\, strengthen the US dollar\, and reduce September rate-cut odds significantly.\nCore PCE steady at 3.2-3.4% YoY – A plateau reading with no further acceleration. Markets may interpret this as “the worst may be over” while acknowledging inflation remains well above target. Limited directional impact on rate expectations.\nCore PCE below 3.0% YoY or below +0.15% MoM – A meaningful downside surprise. Would reignite rate-cut expectations for September and materially shift the tone of the Jackson Hole discussions. Likely to support equities\, lower yields\, and weaken the dollar.\n\nThe personal spending figure will also be scrutinised alongside the inflation data. Strong nominal spending paired with elevated PCE inflation could mean consumers are spending more to buy the same basket of goods\, a sign of declining real purchasing power. Weak nominal spending alongside high PCE would point to demand destruction\, the mechanism through which restrictive policy is supposed to operate. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Month\nData Month\nCore PCE (YoY)\nCore PCE (MoM)\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nApril 2026\n3.3%\n+0.24%\n\n\nApril 2026\nMarch 2026\n3.2%\n+0.30%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nFebruary 2026\n3.0%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nDecember 2025\n3.0%\n+0.40%\n\n\nJan 2026\nNovember 2025\n2.8%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nOctober 2025\n2.7%\nn/a\n\n\n\nThe trend in core PCE has been sharply higher since the low of approximately 2.6% recorded in mid-2025. The 60-basis-point rise in core PCE over the six months from October 2025 to April 2026 represents one of the more persistent re-acceleration episodes since the post-pandemic surge of 2021-2022. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of the August 26 release\, positioning will be shaped by the US CPI Report for August 2026 published on August 12 and the PCE print on July 30. If this PCE sequence shows two consecutive months of moderation\, market participants may begin pricing in a September rate cut more aggressively. Conversely\, back-to-back prints above 3.3% core would likely cement a September hold. \nThe proximity to the Jackson Hole symposium creates unusual two-way risk. If PCE comes in soft on August 26 but the Fed Chair signals a hawkish tone in Wyoming on August 28\, the initial bond rally on the PCE data could rapidly reverse. Traders are likely to keep position sizes smaller than usual ahead of the August 26 report\, reserving capital until after the Jackson Hole keynote the following morning provides fuller policy guidance. \nRelated Events\n\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The three-day symposium opens on August 27\, the day after PCE. The Fed Chair’s keynote on August 28 will be directly informed by this PCE reading.\nUS Gross Domestic Product August 2026 – The Q2 2026 GDP second estimate is released on the same day (August 26)\, offering an updated read on growth to set alongside the inflation data.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The next FOMC meeting on September 16 is the primary policy decision that the August PCE data will influence.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the PCE price index measure?\nPCE measures the change in prices paid for goods and services by US consumers and on their behalf by employers and the government. It is the Federal Reserve’s official inflation target\, with a 2% year-on-year rate the stated goal. The core version excludes food and energy prices and is the measure most closely watched by policymakers. \nWhen is the August 2026 PCE report released?\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report\, which includes PCE data\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. The GDP Q2 second estimate is published at the same time. \nWhy does the August PCE matter more than usual in 2026?\nThe August 26 PCE release falls just one day before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium\, where the Fed Chair will speak publicly about the economic outlook. This creates a unique situation in which the most recent inflation data and a major policy communication event overlap within a 24-hour window\, amplifying the market impact of both. \n \n\n \n \n Related events\n \n \n \n Medium\n US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) June 2026\n Jun 16\n \n \n \n \n Medium\n US Retail Sales June 2026\n Jun 17\n \n \n \n \n Low\n NYSE/NASDAQ: Juneteenth 2026\n Jun 19\n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n Upcoming Events\n \n \n \n \n 16 Jun\n Bank of Japan Rate Decision June 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 16 Jun\n US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) June 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 17 Jun\n FOMC Rate Decision June 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 17 Jun\n US Retail Sales June 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 18 Jun\n Bank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 19 Jun\n NYSE/NASDAQ: Juneteenth 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n Add to Calendar\n \n Get a reminder before this release lands. \n \n \n \n Google Calendar\n \n \n \n Apple / Outlook (.ics)\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n Event Series\n \n Economic Indicators\n All upcoming economic indicators events with previews and analysis. \n View all events →\n PCE release schedule → URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-personal-income-and-outlays-pce-august-2026/ CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR