BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//financecalendar.com - ECPv6.17.4.1//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME:financecalendar.com
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://www.financecalendar.com
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for financecalendar.com
REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H
X-Robots-Tag:noindex
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:America/New_York
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0500
TZOFFSETTO:-0400
TZNAME:EDT
DTSTART:20250309T070000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0400
TZOFFSETTO:-0500
TZNAME:EST
DTSTART:20251102T060000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0500
TZOFFSETTO:-0400
TZNAME:EDT
DTSTART:20260308T070000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0400
TZOFFSETTO:-0500
TZNAME:EST
DTSTART:20261101T060000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0500
TZOFFSETTO:-0400
TZNAME:EDT
DTSTART:20270314T070000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0400
TZOFFSETTO:-0500
TZNAME:EST
DTSTART:20271107T060000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260911T020000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260911T030000
DTSTAMP:20260911T123133Z
CREATED:20260825T124716Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260911T123133Z
UID:2163-1789092000-1789095600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:UK GDP September 2026
DESCRIPTION:UK GDP: +0.4% MoM (July 2026)\, vs 0.0% consensus\, prior +0.3% (June 2026) (Friday\, September 11\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London)). Covers Q2 2026 data. \n\nActual\n+0.4% MoM (July 2026)\, vs 0.0% consensus\, prior +0.3% (June 2026)\n\nFull schedule and background: UK GDP. \nUpdated September 11\, 2026 \n\nUK monthly GDP grew by 0.4% in July 2026\, far exceeding the 0.0% consensus forecast and up from 0.3% growth in June 2026\, the Office for National Statistics reported on September 11\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the July 2026 UK GDP monthly estimate has not yet been widely published by major polling services. The most recent official reading\, for June 2026\, showed the economy grew by 0.3% month-on-month\, according to the Office for National Statistics\, following zero growth in May. Economists surveyed for the House of Commons Library’s economic indicators briefing noted that GDP rose 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026 overall. A surprise would be a reading that shows contraction\, or growth well above the recent 0.3% pace\, since either would shift expectations for the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision. \nThe UK’s monthly gross domestic product (GDP) estimate is released on Friday\, September 11\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London time) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This release covers the economy’s output through July 2026 and\, through its rolling three-month growth measure\, gives the clearest early read on how the economy performed as it moved out of the second quarter of 2026. Full schedule and background on this series: UK GDP report dates. \nWhat is GDP and why does it matter?\nGross domestic product measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK over a given period. The ONS builds it from three angles that should\, in theory\, arrive at the same total: output (what businesses produce)\, expenditure (what is spent by households\, government and businesses) and income (wages\, profits and rents earned). Comparing growth from one period to the next shows whether the economy is expanding\, stagnating or shrinking. \nUnlike the United States\, which publishes GDP only on a quarterly basis\, the ONS also publishes a monthly GDP estimate. This gives investors\, the Bank of England and government economists a more frequent\, if noisier\, signal on the economy’s direction between the quarterly figures. Because monthly output data can be volatile\, the ONS also publishes a three-month-on-three-month growth rate\, which smooths out single-month swings and is treated by economists as a closer proxy for the underlying quarterly trend. \nMarkets watch GDP because it feeds directly into the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions\, government borrowing forecasts\, and how investors price UK assets such as gilts (government bonds)\, the pound and shares in domestically focused companies. A weaker-than-expected reading tends to increase the chance of interest rate cuts\, while a stronger reading can push expectations the other way. \nWhen is the July 2026 GDP report released?\nThe ONS is scheduled to publish the GDP monthly estimate covering July 2026 on Friday\, September 11\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET). It appears on the ONS website within its GDP monthly estimate\, UK bulletin series. The ONS typically releases monthly GDP data around six to seven weeks after the end of the reference month\, so a July release in mid-September follows the usual pattern; for example\, the April 2026 data was published on June 12\, 2026\, according to the ONS’s own previous releases page. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the July 2026 monthly GDP figure has not yet been published this far ahead of the release. City economists and Reuters or Bloomberg polls typically circulate a forecast in the days immediately before an ONS release\, so a specific consensus number is likely to appear closer to September 11\, 2026. \nThe most recent confirmed reading is the three-month-on-three-month growth rate published alongside the ONS’s monthly GDP overview\, which showed the economy growing by 0.4% in the three months to June 2026\, a period that corresponds to the second quarter of 2026 (April to June). This followed growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026\, which was itself revised down from an initial estimate of 0.7%\, and unrevised growth of 0.8% in the three months to April 2026\, according to the ONS’s GDP overview page. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior reading\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nThree-month-on-three-month GDP growth\n0.4% (three months to June 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\nMonthly GDP (single month\, m/m)\nNot confirmed for June 2026\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nSterling and gilt yields could firm as traders trim expectations for near-term Bank of England rate cuts\nThe economy is growing faster than expected\, which can support jobs and wages but may also keep prices rising\, delaying cheaper mortgage rates\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, as the figure confirms the existing growth path priced in by investors\nThe economy is behaving broadly as expected\, so there is little new information for savers or borrowers\n\n\nBelow consensus\nSterling could soften and gilt yields fall as markets price in a greater chance of interest rate cuts\nWeaker growth raises the risk of slower hiring and can eventually feed through to lower mortgage and savings rates\n\n\n\nThese are possible market reactions based on how similar data has historically been interpreted by analysts\, not predictions of the actual outcome. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee weighs GDP growth alongside inflation and the labour market when setting Bank Rate. UK growth slowed through the first half of 2026\, with the ONS recording quarterly growth of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026 and the rolling three-month growth rate easing from 0.8% in the three months to April 2026 to 0.4% by the three months to June 2026\, according to ONS data. A further slowdown in the July reading would add to the debate over how much room the Bank of England has to cut interest rates further\, while a rebound would support the case for holding rates steady for longer. \nThe reading also matters beyond UK borders. The UK is a major trading partner for the European Union and the United States\, and a weaker UK growth picture can weigh on sentiment toward European equities and the euro\, while a stronger figure can support UK-exposed multinational earnings reported by companies in Asia and North America. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages: Weaker GDP growth tends to increase the odds of Bank of England interest rate cuts over time\, which can eventually feed through to cheaper tracker and new fixed-rate mortgage deals\, though lenders often react to the wider trend rather than one release.\nSavings: If growth disappoints and rate cuts become more likely\, savings account and cash ISA rates offered by UK banks may drift lower in the following months.\nJobs and wages: GDP growth and employment tend to move together over time. A sustained slowdown can eventually mean fewer job openings or smaller pay rises\, particularly in sectors most exposed to consumer spending.\nPrices: GDP data does not set prices directly\, but weak growth combined with still-high inflation (known as stagflation risk) can complicate the Bank of England’s decisions on interest rates\, indirectly affecting the cost of borrowing for households and businesses.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: UK shares and the pound often react to GDP surprises. A weaker reading can pull the pound lower against the dollar and euro\, which affects the cost of holidays abroad and the value of overseas earnings for UK-listed multinational companies held in pension funds.\n\nRelated events\n\nBank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decisions\, which weigh GDP alongside inflation data\nUK monthly inflation (CPI) releases from the ONS\, published separately each month\nUK labour market statistics\, including the unemployment rate and average earnings\, published by the ONS\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the UK GDP report released?\nThe ONS publishes the July 2026 GDP monthly estimate at 7:00 am BST on September 11\, 2026\, which is 2:00 am ET. \nHow should I read the monthly GDP figure?\nFocus on the three-month-on-three-month growth rate rather than a single month’s number\, as the ONS and most economists treat it as a more reliable guide to the underlying trend because it smooths out monthly volatility. \nHow does UK GDP affect interest rates?\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses GDP growth\, alongside inflation and employment data\, to judge whether the economy needs looser or tighter monetary policy\, which in turn influences Bank Rate and borrowing costs. \nWhere can I find the official GDP release?\nThe full bulletin is published on the Office for National Statistics website under its GDP monthly estimate series. \nWhen is the next UK GDP release?\nFollowing the standard monthly cadence\, the next GDP monthly estimate\, covering August 2026 data\, would typically be published in mid-October 2026\, according to the ONS release calendar. \nResults: UK GDP\, July 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nMonthly GDP (m/m)\n0.0%\n0.4%\n0.3% (June 2026)\n\n\nServices output\nNot separately polled\n+0.4%\nNot separately confirmed\n\n\nProduction output\nNot separately polled\n+0.2%\nNot separately confirmed\n\n\nConstruction output\nNot separately polled\n+0.1%\nNot separately confirmed\n\n\n\nThe economy grew by 0.4% in July 2026\, well above the flat reading of 0.0% that economists had pencilled in after a decline in retail sales volumes offset an improving composite PMI\, according to Brown Brothers Harriman’s pre-release forecast reported by FXStreet. The Office for National Statistics said growth followed a 0.3% rise in June 2026 and no growth in May 2026\, meaning July’s outturn was the strongest single month in the run since at least the spring. \nAll three main sectors contributed to the July expansion: services rose 0.4%\, production rose 0.2% and construction rose 0.1%\, the ONS reported. That broad-based pattern is a firmer print than the “above consensus” scenario flagged in the preview\, which had suggested a reading well above the recent pace would likely firm sterling and gilt yields as traders trimmed the odds of near-term Bank of England rate cuts. \nMarket Reaction\nSterling rose against its major peers after the data\, with GBP/USD climbing to near 1.3518 in early trading\, according to FXStreet. The move reflected traders pushing back expectations for how soon the Bank of England might cut Bank Rate again\, since a monthly GDP print this far above forecast reduces the case for near-term policy loosening even as the swaps market had\, ahead of the release\, been pricing in a more dovish path for interest rates. \nThe pound’s gain was measured rather than dramatic\, consistent with a single strong month not being enough on its own to change the Bank of England’s broader assessment of a economy still operating with a negative output gap\, the term for output running below its long-run potential. Investors are likely to weigh this release alongside upcoming inflation and labour market data before the Bank’s next scheduled decision. \nWhat This Means for Your Money Now\nA single stronger-than-expected month does not change the broad outlook for UK mortgages\, savings rates or pensions on its own. If July’s strength continues into the autumn data\, it could nudge back expectations for further Bank of England rate cuts\, which would mean savings rates fall more slowly than some had hoped\, while mortgage rates linked to Bank Rate expectations may ease only gradually rather than sharply. For now\, the outlook for household borrowing and saving costs is largely unchanged\, and the modest lift in sterling has only a small effect on the price of overseas holidays or imported goods.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/uk-gdp-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR