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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20270120T020000
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UID:2843-1800410400-1800414000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:UK CPI Inflation January 2027
DESCRIPTION:Next UK CPI Inflation: Wednesday\, January 20\, 2027 at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London). Covers December 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n3.1% CPI\, 3.3% CPIH (August 2026\, latest confirmed ONS reading)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: UK CPI Inflation. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\n← Previous UK CPI Inflation\nThe UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) report for January 2027 is due on Wednesday\, January 20\, 2027 at 2:00 am ET (7:00 am London time). It is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and covers price changes for December 2026. Full schedule and background: UK CPI report dates. \nWhat is UK CPI?\nThe Consumer Prices Index measures the average change in prices paid by UK households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from food and fuel to rent and haircuts. The ONS collects tens of thousands of individual prices each month and weights them according to how much a typical household spends on each item. The result is expressed as a percentage change over the previous 12 months (the “annual rate”) and over the previous month alone (the “monthly rate”). \nAlongside headline CPI\, the ONS publishes core CPI\, which strips out volatile food\, energy\, alcohol and tobacco prices to give a clearer read on underlying price pressure\, and CPIH\, a variant that also includes owner occupiers’ housing costs (an estimate of the cost of living in a home you own). Markets watch CPI closely because it is the inflation measure the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) targets at 2%\, and it directly shapes decisions on Bank Rate\, the interest rate that filters through to mortgages\, savings and business borrowing. \nA higher-than-expected reading tends to reduce the chance of the Bank of England cutting interest rates\, or raises the chance of a rate hike\, because policymakers worry inflation could become embedded. A lower reading does the opposite\, often supporting expectations of rate cuts and a weaker pound. \nWhen is the December 2026 CPI report released?\nThe report is scheduled for January 20\, 2027 at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET). It is published on the ONS website through the “Consumer price inflation\, UK” statistical bulletin. The ONS typically releases CPI data on the third Wednesday of the month\, roughly three weeks after the reference month ends\, though the exact date can shift for bank holidays. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the December 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economist surveys\, such as those run by Reuters and Bloomberg\, are typically released only in the days immediately before the print. \nThe most recently confirmed ONS data available at the time of writing covers August 2026\, when headline CPI rose to 3.1% in the 12 months to August\, up from 2.9% in July\, with CPIH at 3.3%\, according to the Office for National Statistics. The November 2026 print\, which forms the immediate prior reading for this release\, is due to be published in mid-December 2026 and will be the figure most directly comparable to the December 2026 data covered here. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nLatest confirmed reading\nConsensus (December 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (annual)\n3.1% (August 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\nCPIH (annual)\n3.3% (August 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nSterling could firm and gilt yields rise as traders push back expectations of Bank of England rate cuts\nPrices are rising faster than expected\, which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, since the print confirms what was already priced in\nInflation is behaving broadly as expected\, so the near-term outlook for mortgage and savings rates likely stays unchanged\n\n\nBelow consensus\nSterling could soften and rate-cut bets could be brought forward\nPrice pressure is easing faster than thought\, which could eventually feed through to lower borrowing costs\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities discussed by market commentators\, not predictions. Actual reactions depend on the detail behind the headline number\, particularly services inflation\, which the Bank of England has flagged as the stickiest part of the inflation picture. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nUK inflation has been on an unsettled path through 2026. Having eased from double digits in 2022 to close to the Bank of England’s 2% target earlier in the decade\, price growth picked up again through the summer of 2026. The House of Commons Library notes that CPI rose to 3.1% in August 2026 from 2.9% in July\, with transport costs\, particularly motor fuel\, the largest single contributor\, and that the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting rise in energy prices are “expected to lead to higher UK inflation.” \nThe Bank of England’s own projections\, published on July 30\, 2026\, showed CPI inflation peaking at around 3.2% in the final quarter of 2026\, with the MPC cautioning that risks to that outlook were “tilted to the upside”\, according to the same Commons Library briefing. That makes the run of prints between September 2026 and this January 2027 release\, covering the last months of 2026\, particularly important for judging whether inflation peaked broadly where the Bank expected\, or ran hotter. \nBecause this report lands only a few weeks before the Bank of England’s first MPC meeting of 2027\, it is likely to feature heavily in the run-up commentary on whether rate cuts remain on the table for the year ahead. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: A hotter-than-expected inflation print makes it less likely the Bank of England cuts Bank Rate soon\, which can keep fixed and tracker mortgage rates higher. A cooler print can support hopes of cheaper borrowing later in the year.\nSavings: Higher inflation erodes the real value of cash sitting in savings accounts unless interest rates keep pace. If the Bank of England holds or raises rates in response to persistent inflation\, savings rates could stay relatively attractive in nominal terms.\nJobs and wages: Persistent inflation puts pressure on wage negotiations\, as workers seek pay rises to offset rising living costs\, which can in turn feed back into services inflation.\nPrices day to day: The report reflects what households have already noticed at the till\, in energy bills and at the pump. A rise in the annual rate means the overall cost of living is climbing faster\, not that prices are falling.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: UK gilts\, the pound and London-listed shares can all move on the release. A stronger-than-expected reading tends to push sterling higher against the dollar and euro in the short term\, while raising bond yields; a weaker reading tends to have the opposite effect. Investors in Europe and Asia holding sterling assets or UK-linked exposure watch this print for signals on Bank of England policy direction.\n\nRelated events\n\nUK CPI Inflation\, December 2026\, the previous month’s release covering November 2026 data\nBank of England Monetary Policy Committee decisions\, which weigh this data heavily when setting Bank Rate\nUK labour market and wage growth releases\, which interact closely with services inflation trends\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the UK CPI report released?\nThe December 2026 CPI report is released at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET) on January 20\, 2027. \nHow should I read the headline CPI number?\nThe headline annual rate shows how much prices have risen over the past 12 months\, while the monthly rate shows the change from the previous month alone; economists watch both\, alongside core CPI\, which excludes volatile food and energy items. \nHow does this release affect UK interest rates?\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses CPI as its primary inflation gauge against a 2% target\, so a higher or lower than expected reading can shift expectations for Bank Rate decisions and\, in turn\, mortgage and savings rates. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe official bulletin is published by the Office for National Statistics under “Consumer price inflation\, UK”. \nWhen is the next UK CPI release after this one?\nThe ONS typically publishes CPI data monthly\, usually on the third Wednesday of the following month\, covering January 2027 data in February 2027. \n← Previous UK CPI Inflation
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/uk-cpi-inflation-january-2027/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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