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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260907T195000
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DTSTAMP:20260908T123340Z
CREATED:20260826T032437Z
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UID:2257-1788810600-1788814200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Japan GDP September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Japan GDP: Q2 2026 GDP revised up to +0.4% QoQ\, +1.4% annualised (vs +0.3%/+1.1% preliminary) (Tuesday\, September 8\, 2026 at 8:50 am JST (7:50 pm ET\, 12:50 am London)). Covers Q2 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nA specific consensus forecast for the September 8 revised reading has not yet been widely published. Economists generally expect upward revision\, noting capital expenditure and preliminary GDP figures\nActual\nQ2 2026 GDP revised up to +0.4% QoQ\, +1.4% annualised (vs +0.3%/+1.1% preliminary)\n\nFull schedule and background: Japan GDP. \nUpdated September 8\, 2026 \n\nJapan’s Cabinet Office confirmed on September 8\, 2026 that second-quarter GDP was revised up to 0.4% quarter on quarter\, or 1.4% annualised\, from the preliminary 0.3% and 1.1%\, falling short of the 1.6% Reuters poll median. \nNo formal consensus has yet been published for the revised Q2 2026 GDP figure due on September 8\, 2026\, according to available polling data. The preliminary reading\, released earlier\, showed the economy grew 0.3% quarter on quarter\, or 1.1% annualised\, missing a Reuters poll median forecast of 0.5% and 2.0% respectively\, according to Trading Economics. Capital expenditure fell 1.2%\, confounding forecasts for a 0.4% rise\, though analysts note that capital spending and headline GDP are frequently revised upward once fuller corporate data are incorporated. A surprise would be a downward revision or confirmation of the weak capital expenditure figure\, which would reinforce concerns about Japan’s business investment cycle. \nJapan’s Cabinet Office publishes the second preliminary (revised) reading of second-quarter 2026 gross domestic product on Tuesday\, September 8\, 2026\, at 8:50am Japan Standard Time. That falls at 7:50pm ET on Monday\, September 7 in New York and 12:50am London time on the 8th\, because Japan is well ahead of both Western time zones. This revision covers economic activity across April to June 2026. For the full release calendar and background on how Japan reports growth\, see Japan GDP. \nWhat is Japan’s GDP report?\nGross domestic product measures the total value of goods and services produced in Japan over a period\, usually reported quarter on quarter and then annualised\, which extrapolates that quarterly pace over a full year as though it continued unchanged. The Cabinet Office’s Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) compiles the figures from spending\, output and income data across households\, businesses and government. \nJapan releases GDP twice for each quarter. A first preliminary estimate comes roughly six weeks after the quarter ends\, built on partial data. A second preliminary estimate follows around six weeks later\, incorporating fuller corporate capital spending and inventory figures from the Ministry of Finance. The September 8 release is this second\, revised estimate for Q2 2026. \nInvestors watch GDP because it is the broadest single gauge of whether an economy is expanding or contracting. For Japan specifically\, the Bank of Japan weighs GDP trends\, alongside inflation and wage data\, when deciding whether conditions justify further interest rate moves after its long exit from ultra-loose policy. \nWhen is the Q2 2026 GDP revision released?\nThe Cabinet Office releases the data at 8:50am JST on September 8\, 2026\, on the ESRI website. There is no scheduling uncertainty attached to this release: Japan’s Cabinet Office confirms exact GDP dates well in advance and has not flagged any change to this slot. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the September 8 revision had not been published at the time of writing\, since analyst polls for second preliminary GDP readings typically appear only in the days immediately before release. The number being revised is the first preliminary estimate published on August 17\, 2026\, which showed real GDP growing 0.3% quarter on quarter\, or 1.1% annualised\, according to Trading Economics. That missed economists’ prior expectations of 0.5% quarter on quarter and 2.0% annualised\, and slowed from a downwardly revised 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (1.8% annualised) expansion in Q1 2026\, per the same source. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (Q1 2026\, revised)\nFirst preliminary Q2 2026\n\n\n\n\nGDP\, quarter on quarter\n0.5%\n0.3%\n\n\nGDP\, annualised\n1.8%\n1.1%\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nRevised above 0.3% QoQ\nYen could firm modestly if traders see it supporting further Bank of Japan tightening\nThe economy grew a bit faster than first thought\, easing concern about a stalling recovery\n\n\nRevised in line with 0.3% QoQ\nLimited reaction\, since the first estimate is already priced in\nGrowth confirmed as modest\, dominated by exports rather than household spending\n\n\nRevised below 0.3% QoQ\, or negative\nYen could soften on reduced expectations of near-term rate rises\nThe economy grew less than reported\, or shrank\, adding to doubts about domestic demand\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities\, not predictions. Capital expenditure data due from the Ministry of Finance ahead of the release is the main swing factor\, since business investment estimates get revised most heavily between the first and second GDP readings. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe first preliminary reading showed private consumption\, which accounts for more than half of Japanese GDP\, flat quarter on quarter\, its first non-positive reading in eight quarters\, according to BigGo Finance. Growth was instead carried by net exports\, which added 0.5 percentage points\, while domestic demand subtracted 0.2 points. Trading Economics reported that economists expect private consumption to soften further in the third quarter as import costs and broader price pressures squeeze households. The Bank of Japan is watching whether wage gains\, real compensation of employees rose 0.8% to 0.9% quarter on quarter in the first estimate\, eventually feed through into stronger spending\, a key condition it has cited for further policy normalisation. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nMortgages and borrowing: a stronger-than-expected GDP revision would support the case for the Bank of Japan to keep raising rates\, which could push up variable-rate borrowing costs for Japanese households and businesses. A weaker revision reduces that pressure. \nSavings: higher Japanese rates gradually improve returns on yen deposits\, which have been unusually low for years\, though any change from a single GDP revision is likely to be small. \nJobs and wages: soft consumption alongside rising real wages suggests households are saving rather than spending pay gains\, a pattern worth watching if it persists into the third quarter. \nPrices: the GDP deflator\, a broad measure of price changes across the economy\, rose 2.6% year on year in the first estimate\, underscoring that inflation remains a live issue in Japan even as growth slows. \nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: a weaker yen tends to follow disappointing growth data\, which affects returns for anyone holding yen-denominated assets or funds with Japan exposure\, while a firmer yen from a stronger revision can weigh on the earnings of Japan’s export-heavy companies when translated back into yen. Investors in Europe\, the UK and Asia holding Japanese equities or bonds\, directly or through pension funds\, should note that GDP surprises can move both the currency and the Nikkei on the day. \nRelated events\n\nBank of Japan interest rate decisions\, which weigh GDP and wage trends when setting policy\nJapan’s monthly trade balance and export data\, which explain the net trade contribution seen in recent quarters\nJapan’s household spending and wage growth reports\, key inputs into the consumption side of GDP\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is Japan’s GDP released?\nThe Cabinet Office publishes the data at 8:50am Japan Standard Time\, which is 7:50pm ET the previous evening and 12:50am in London. \nWhy does Japan release GDP twice per quarter?\nThe first preliminary estimate uses partial data available about six weeks after the quarter ends\, while the second preliminary estimate\, released roughly six weeks later\, incorporates fuller corporate investment and inventory data. \nHow does GDP affect Bank of Japan policy?\nThe Bank of Japan considers GDP growth alongside inflation and wages when judging whether the economy can sustain higher interest rates\, so weaker growth tends to reduce expectations of near-term tightening. \nWhere is the official GDP release published?\nJapan’s Cabinet Office publishes the data through its Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) website. \nWhen is the next Japan GDP release?\nThe first preliminary estimate for Q3 2026 GDP is typically due around mid-November 2026\, roughly six weeks after the quarter ends\, consistent with Japan’s usual publication pattern. \nResults: Japan Q2 2026 GDP (revised)\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior (preliminary)\n\n\n\n\nGDP\, quarter on quarter\n+0.4% (Reuters poll median)\n+0.4%\n+0.3%\n\n\nGDP\, annualised\n+1.6% (Reuters); +1.8% (Bloomberg survey average)\n+1.4%\n+1.1%\n\n\nBusiness capital expenditure\n-0.8% forecast\n-0.9%\n-1.2%\n\n\n\nJapan’s Cabinet Office confirmed on September 8\, 2026 that the economy grew faster in the April to June quarter than first thought. Quarter-on-quarter growth was revised up to 0.4% from 0.3%\, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll\, while the annualised pace rose to 1.4% from 1.1%\, still short of the 1.6% Reuters median and the 1.8% average in a Bloomberg survey of economists. \nThe upgrade came almost entirely from business investment. Capital expenditure fell 0.9% in the quarter\, a smaller drop than the initially reported 1.2% decline\, though it still undershot the 0.8% fall economists had expected. Private consumption\, more than half of the Japanese economy\, was left unchanged at flat\, still its first non-positive reading in eight quarters. Net exports contributed 0.5 percentage points to growth\, unchanged from the first estimate\, while domestic demand subtracted 0.1 percentage point\, an improvement on the 0.2-point drag first reported. \nThe result lands closest to the preview’s middle scenario of an in-line-to-modest upward revision\, though the upgrade was smaller than economists’ consensus\, meaning growth was confirmed as positive but still softer than polls had implied ahead of the release. \nMarket Reaction\nThe yen strengthened to around 153 per dollar\, its strongest level in roughly six to seven months\, as the data added to bets that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate at the September 17-18 meeting. Swap markets and traders surveyed by FXStreet assigned a probability of a rate rise as high as 75 to 80%\, up sharply from around 50% a month earlier. \nTen-year Japanese government bond yields held near a 30-year high\, close to 2.925%\, reflecting the firmer growth reading and stronger July real wage data\, which rose 2.4% year on year\, its seventh straight monthly gain. Tokyo equities were mixed: the Nikkei 225 posted a modest gain even as yen strength squeezed exporter earnings expectations\, while the broader Topix\, which carries more rate-sensitive financial and domestic names\, slipped\, according to Sunday Guardian Live and Trading Economics. \nWhat this means for your money now\nA firmer yen and near-certain Bank of Japan rate rise expectations mean anyone holding yen deposits could see marginally better returns emerging over coming months\, while Japanese exporters and funds tracking export-heavy indices may see earnings pressure if the yen keeps strengthening. Households and pension holders in the UK\, Europe or Asia with Japan equity exposure should watch for further currency swings around the September 17-18 Bank of Japan meeting\, since a rate rise there is now widely expected rather than a surprise.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/japan-gdp-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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