BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//financecalendar.com - ECPv6.15.20//NONSGML v1.0//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH X-WR-CALNAME:financecalendar.com X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://www.financecalendar.com X-WR-CALDESC:Events for financecalendar.com REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H X-Robots-Tag:noindex X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:UTC BEGIN:STANDARD TZOFFSETFROM:+0000 TZOFFSETTO:+0000 TZNAME:UTC DTSTART:20250101T000000 END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20260429T000000 DTEND;TZID=UTC:20260429T235959 DTSTAMP:20260814T182539 CREATED:20260605T131132Z LAST-MODIFIED:20260605T131132Z UID:1141-1777420800-1777507199@www.financecalendar.com SUMMARY:FOMC Rate Decision April 2026 DESCRIPTION:Home\n ›\n Events\n ›\n Central Banks & Monetary Policy\n ›\n FOMC Rate Decision April 2026\n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Central Banks & Monetary Policy \n \n \n High Impact\n \n \n FOMC Rate Decision April 2026\n The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision on Wednesday\, April 29\, 2026\, at 14:00 EDT\, concluding a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The committee held the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% target range in a historic 8-4 split\, the most divided FOMC decision since October 1992\, with Governor Miran dissenting for a cut and three governors dissenting against the statement’s easing bias language. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed at his press conference that it was his final appearance as Fed Chair. \n \n \n \n Wednesday\, April 29\, 2026 \n \n \n \n 7 min read\n \n \n \n \n Finance Calendar Editorial\n \n \n \n\n \n \n At a Glance\n \n \n Event\n FOMC Rate Decision April 2026\n \n \n Date\n April 29\, 2026\n \n \n Category\n Central Banks & Monetary Policy\n \n \n Impact\n High\n \n \n \n\n \n \n \nWhat is the FOMC Rate Decision?\nThe Federal Open Market Committee is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It consists of twelve members: the seven members of the Board of Governors\, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York\, and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents\, who serve on a rotating basis. The FOMC meets eight times per year to assess economic conditions and set the target range for the federal funds rate\, the rate at which banks lend reserves to each other overnight. \nThe federal funds rate is the primary tool through which the Fed influences monetary conditions across the US economy and\, by extension\, global financial markets. Changes to this rate affect borrowing costs for consumers and businesses\, mortgage rates\, credit card rates\, and the yields on US Treasury securities. Because the US dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency\, FOMC decisions have far-reaching consequences for global capital flows\, emerging market currencies\, and commodity prices. \nEach FOMC meeting concludes with a policy statement summarising the committee’s assessment and decision. Four times per year\, the statement is accompanied by the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)\, which includes the “dot plot” showing each member’s expectation for the future path of interest rates. The April meeting did not include an SEP release\, meaning the policy statement and Powell’s press conference were the sole vehicles for forward guidance. \nFOMC Rate Decision: April 29\, 2026\nMarkets overwhelmingly expected the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool as of April 7\, 2026\, the probability of a hold stands at 97.9%\, with just a 2.1% probability of any change. This near-certainty reflects the Fed’s difficult position: inflation remains stubbornly above target while growth shows signs of softening. \nAt its March 2026 meeting\, the FOMC held rates unchanged and maintained its median projection of one rate cut before year-end\, though the timing remains unclear. The committee acknowledged that “inflation has remained somewhat elevated” and noted that “uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased\,” a reference to geopolitical tensions and their impact on energy prices. \nThe federal funds rate has been at 3.50%-3.75% since September 2025\, following a cumulative 175 basis points of cuts through 2024 and 2025. The Fed began cutting from the 5.25%-5.50% peak in September 2024\, initially in response to cooling inflation. However\, the cutting cycle was paused after the rate reached its current level as inflation proved stickier than anticipated. \nWhy This Decision Matters\nThe April FOMC meeting arrived at a pivotal moment for the US economy. March CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.3% year-over-year\, up from 2.4% previously\, largely driven by rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Core PCE inflation\, the Fed’s preferred measure\, stood at 3.0% year-over-year in February\, well above the 2% target. This inflation backdrop makes any near-term rate cut increasingly difficult to justify. \nAt the same time\, growth signals are mixed. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 stands at just 1.3% as of April 9\, down from 3.1% earlier in the quarter\, suggesting a meaningful slowdown from the 2.2% full-year growth in 2025. March nonfarm payrolls beat expectations at 178\,000 jobs\, providing some reassurance on employment\, but the trend has been decelerating. \nSome market participants have begun pricing the possibility that the Fed’s next move could be a hike rather than a cut. A CNBC report from late March noted that “markets now see the Fed’s next move as a potential rate hike as inflation fears mount\,” driven by rising oil prices. While this remains a minority view\, it underscores the degree of uncertainty surrounding the policy path. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nHold (consensus\, 97.9% probability) – A hold is fully priced and would not move markets on its own. The reaction will depend entirely on the language of the statement and Powell’s press conference. Any shift toward more hawkish language on inflation\, particularly an acknowledgement that rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future\, could push Treasury yields higher and weigh on equities.\nRate cut – An extremely unlikely surprise cut would signal serious concern about economic weakness and could initially boost equities and bonds. However\, it would likely raise questions about what the Fed sees in the data that markets do not\, potentially creating anxiety rather than relief.\nRate hike – While the probability remains near zero for this meeting\, any signal from Powell that hikes are under discussion would be a major hawkish shock. The dollar would strengthen\, equities would sell off sharply\, and Treasury yields would spike. Even a hint of this scenario in the press conference would move markets.\n\nKey phrases to monitor in the statement include any changes to the description of inflation (“somewhat elevated” versus “elevated”)\, the labour market assessment\, and the balance of risks. If the statement drops its reference to eventual rate cuts\, it would be interpreted as a meaningful hawkish shift. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate\nVote\n\n\n\n\nApril 29\, 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\n8-4\n\n\nMarch 18\, 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nUnanimous\n\n\nJanuary 28\, 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nUnanimous\n\n\nDecember 2025\n-25bp Cut\n3.50%-3.75%\nUnanimous\n\n\nNovember 2025\n-25bp Cut\n3.75%-4.00%\nUnanimous\n\n\nSeptember 2025\n-25bp Cut\n4.00%-4.25%\nUnanimous\n\n\nJuly 2025\nHold\n4.25%-4.50%\nUnanimous\n\n\nJune 2025\nHold\n4.25%-4.50%\nUnanimous\n\n\nDecember 2024\n-25bp Cut\n4.25%-4.50%\nUnanimous\n\n\n\nMarket Positioning\nWith a hold fully priced\, market attention will focus on the forward guidance embedded in Powell’s press conference. US Treasury yields have been volatile in April\, with the 10-year yield fluctuating around 4.3% as traders weigh inflation risks against slowing growth. The S&P 500 has traded in a narrow range as investors await clarity on the rate path. \nThe US dollar index (DXY) has strengthened modestly in recent weeks\, supported by the growing perception that the Fed will keep rates elevated for longer than previously expected. Currency markets are particularly sensitive to any shift in the dot plot expectations\, though the April meeting will not include updated projections. \nPress Conference and Forward Guidance\nChair Powell’s press conference at 14:30 EDT will be the main event for market participants. Without an updated Summary of Economic Projections\, Powell’s remarks will serve as the primary channel for any shift in the committee’s thinking. Reporters will press on several key questions: whether the committee still expects to cut rates in 2026\, how the inflation surge from energy prices factors into the outlook\, and whether a rate hike has been discussed. \nPowell’s language on the balance of risks will be closely parsed. At the March press conference\, he described the risks as “roughly balanced” but acknowledged upside risks to inflation from geopolitical developments. Any shift toward describing risks as tilted to the upside would be interpreted as hawkish and could push back market expectations for a cut. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the current federal funds rate?\nThe federal funds rate target range is 3.50%-3.75%\, set at the December 2025 FOMC meeting. The Fed has held rates at this level through two consecutive meetings in January and March 2026. \nWhen will the FOMC announce its April 2026 decision?\nThe FOMC released its policy statement on Wednesday\, April 29\, 2026\, at 14:00 EDT. Chair Powell’s press conference began at 14:30 EDT. There was no updated Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting. \nWill the Fed cut rates in 2026?\nThe Fed’s March 2026 projections signalled one rate cut before year-end 2026\, but the timing remains uncertain. Rising inflation from energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty have pushed back expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows the next likely cut being priced for the second half of 2026 at the earliest\, though some market participants now see the next move as a potential hike. \nResults: FOMC Rate Decision April 2026\nThe FOMC voted to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29\, 2026\, in a historic 8-4 split\, the most divided FOMC decision since October 1992. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a 25 basis point cut\, while Governors Hammack\, Kashkari\, and Logan objected to the retention of language suggesting the committee would eventually resume cutting rates. The statement acknowledged that “inflation has remained elevated\, in part reflecting recent increases in global energy prices\,” and that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased as a result of Middle East developments. The hold was itself expected\, but the degree of internal fragmentation was not. \nMarket Reaction\nUS equity markets ended mixed on the day: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 280 points (0.57%)\, the S&P 500 edged down 0.04%\, and the Nasdaq rose 0.04%\, erasing earlier losses. The bond market bore the sharper reaction\, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising more than 6 basis points to 4.416% and the 2-year yield climbing more than 9 basis points to 3.937%\, as investors adjusted to the prospect of rates remaining higher for longer. The US dollar index strengthened modestly on the session. \nKey Takeaways From the Statement\nThe April statement retained language suggesting the Fed “anticipates” eventual adjustments to the rate\, but three governors voted against this framing\, a significant signal that the committee is fragmenting between those expecting future cuts and those who believe the next move may need to be a hike. Powell confirmed at his press conference that this was his final appearance as Fed Chair\, and that he would remain on the Board of Governors indefinitely after Kevin Warsh’s confirmation\, a result Powell described as leaving him “no choice.” The 8-4 vote was the most divided FOMC outcome since October 1992\, reflecting genuine disagreement about the appropriate policy path in an environment of elevated inflation and slowing growth. The June 2026 FOMC meeting\, the first chaired by Warsh\, is now framed as a potential pivot point for the direction of policy. \n \n\n \n \n Related events\n \n \n \n Low\n Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026\n Aug 27\n \n \n \n \n High\n ECB Rate Decision September 2026\n Sep 10\n \n \n \n \n High\n FOMC Rate Decision September 2026\n Sep 16\n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n Upcoming Events\n \n \n \n \n 14 Aug\n US Retail Sales August 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 18 Aug\n US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) August 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 18 Aug\n HD Earnings August 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 20 Aug\n WMT Earnings August 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 26 Aug\n NVDA Earnings August 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n 26 Aug\n US Gross Domestic Product August 2026\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n Add to Calendar\n \n Get a reminder before this release lands. \n \n \n \n Google Calendar\n \n \n \n Apple / Outlook (.ics)\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n Event Series\n \n Central Banks & Monetary Policy\n All upcoming central banks & monetary policy events with previews and analysis. \n View all events →\n Fed meeting schedule → URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-april-2026/ CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR