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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T094500
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DTSTAMP:20260825T104623Z
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UID:1440-1788342300-1788345900@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Bank of Canada Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nThe Bank of Canada’s Governing Council announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026\, at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time). The announcement will confirm whether the overnight rate target stays at 2.25%\, where it has sat since the Bank’s last cut on October 29\, 2025\, or whether the Governing Council moves it up or down. This meeting does not include a Monetary Policy Report or press conference; those return at the October 28\, 2026 decision. Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council and what does it decide?\nThe Governing Council is the group of senior officials at the Bank of Canada responsible for setting monetary policy. It is chaired by the Governor\, currently Tiff Macklem\, alongside the Senior Deputy Governor and several Deputy Governors. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England\, the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes: decisions are reached by consensus among Governing Council members rather than a recorded ballot. \nThe Council’s mandate is inflation control\, targeting 2% annual growth in the consumer price index within a 1% to 3% band. It does this by setting the overnight rate\, the interest rate at which commercial banks lend to one another overnight\, which then feeds through to mortgage rates\, savings rates and business borrowing costs across the Canadian economy. \nThe Bank of Canada meets on a fixed schedule of eight rate announcements a year\, roughly every six to seven weeks. Four of these meetings\, typically in January\, April\, July and October\, are accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report setting out the Bank’s economic projections\, plus a press conference with the Governor. The other four\, including this September meeting\, are statement-only decisions with no press conference. \nWhen is the September Bank of Canada decision announced?\nThe decision is due on Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026\, at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London\, and mid-afternoon in continental Europe). The Bank releases a short statement explaining the rate decision at this time. There is no press conference or Monetary Policy Report attached to this particular meeting\, so market participants will have only the written statement to interpret on the day. A summary of the Governing Council’s deliberations is typically published around two weeks after each decision\, giving more detail on how members weighed the arguments for holding\, cutting or raising the rate. \nThe next meeting with a full Monetary Policy Report\, including updated growth and inflation projections plus a press conference\, is scheduled for October 28\, 2026. \nWhat to expect\nThe Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions between December 2025 and July 2026\, according to Trading Economics. That run followed an aggressive easing cycle: the Bank cut rates nine times between June 2024 and October 2025\, taking the policy rate from 5% down to 2.25%\, before pausing to assess the impact of US tariffs and a “structural adjustment” in the Canadian economy\, in Governor Macklem’s words. \nA consensus forecast for the September 2\, 2026 decision has not yet been published by major polling organisations at the time of writing. Investors and economists typically firm up their expectations for a Bank of Canada meeting in the days beforehand\, based on domestic inflation and jobs data released in the intervening weeks\, and on pricing in the overnight index swap (OIS) market\, which reflects what traders are willing to pay to hedge against a rate move. Readers should check nearer the date for updated pricing from sources such as Reuters polls or Bloomberg surveys. \nThe table below shows the Bank’s last several decisions\, each sourced from the Bank of Canada’s own press releases. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\nRate after meeting\n\n\n\n\nSeptember 17\, 2025\nCut 25bp\n2.50%\n\n\nOctober 29\, 2025\nCut 25bp\n2.25%\n\n\nDecember 10\, 2025\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJanuary 28\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nMarch 18\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nApril 29\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJune 10\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJuly 15\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\n\nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold at 2.25%\nA widely expected outcome after six straight holds would likely be read as a low-drama confirmation of the current stance\, with attention shifting to the statement’s wording on tariffs and growth\nBorrowing costs stay where they are for now\, and the Bank signals it is watching the data rather than committing to a direction\n\n\nCut to 2.00%\nA cut would suggest the Governing Council sees enough softness in jobs\, growth or underlying inflation to justify further support\, and could weaken the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and the euro\nCheaper borrowing for mortgages and business loans\, but a signal that officials are more worried about the economy slowing than about inflation\n\n\nHike above 2.25%\nConsidered the least likely path by most commentary through mid-2026\, a hike would be read as a response to a resurgence in inflation\, possibly tied to tariff pass-through or a weaker currency\, and could push the Canadian dollar higher\nMore expensive mortgages and loans\, but potentially better returns on savings accounts and fixed-income investments\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nBecause this is a statement-only meeting\, the main signal will come from the wording the Bank uses to describe growth\, the labour market and the impact of US tariffs on Canadian exporters. Analysts typically parse phrases such as “proceeding carefully” or “prepared to respond” for hints about the Bank’s tolerance for further softness in the economy versus its resistance to reigniting inflation. Since the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes\, there is no dissent count to track in the way there is at the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England\, though the summary of deliberations released roughly two weeks later can reveal how divided opinion was within the Governing Council. \nWatch for any reference to the Canadian dollar\, oil prices and global trade conditions\, all of which the Bank has flagged as swing factors for its outlook through 2025 and 2026. Also worth watching is any language about the “neutral range” for interest rates\, the level the Bank considers neither stimulative nor restrictive\, since officials have previously described the current 2.25% rate as sitting near the low end of that range. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor Canadian homeowners\, a hold at 2.25% means variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit stay at their current level\, while fixed-rate mortgage pricing is driven more by bond yields than by the overnight rate itself. A cut would lower monthly payments for variable-rate borrowers and could nudge fixed rates down too\, while a hike would do the opposite. Savers with high-interest savings accounts or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) would see slightly better returns if the Bank holds firm or raises rates\, and somewhat lower returns if it cuts. \nFor credit cards and personal loans\, most of which track the prime rate\, a Bank of Canada hold keeps borrowing costs stable\, while a cut typically feeds through to lower prime rates within a matter of weeks. Currency markets watch the decision closely too: a surprise cut tends to weaken the Canadian dollar against the US dollar\, the pound and the euro\, making imports from the UK and Europe more expensive for Canadian consumers and businesses\, while a surprise hike tends to strengthen it. \nPension funds and stock market investors\, both in Canada and internationally\, use the Bank’s rate path to price bonds and equities. Lower Canadian rates generally support share prices by reducing the appeal of holding cash\, while also affecting how UK and European pension funds with Canadian dollar exposure value their holdings. For UK and eurozone readers\, the Bank of Canada’s decisions are watched less directly than those of the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank\, but they still feed into broader expectations about how resilient North American demand is for UK and European exporters selling into Canada. \nRelated events\n\nPrevious decision: Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% on July 15\, 2026\nNext decision: the Bank of Canada’s following scheduled announcement\, with a full Monetary Policy Report and press conference\, is October 28\, 2026\nFull schedule and background on all Bank of Canada meetings: Bank of Canada Rate Decision\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Bank of Canada decision announced?\nThe decision is released at 9:45 am ET on September 2\, 2026\, which is 2:45 pm in London. \nWill the Bank of Canada cut rates in September 2026?\nThis is not yet known. The Bank has held its rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions through July 2026\, and any move will depend on inflation and labour market data released in the weeks before the meeting. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s current interest rate?\nThe overnight rate target has stood at 2.25% since the Bank’s last cut on October 29\, 2025\, most recently confirmed by a hold on July 15\, 2026. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s current interest rate?\nThe overnight rate target has stood at 2.25% since the Bank’s last cut on October 29\, 2025\, most recently confirmed by a hold on July 15\, 2026. \nWhen is the next Bank of Canada meeting after September 2026?\nThe next scheduled decision is October 28\, 2026\, which will include a full Monetary Policy Report and a press conference with the Governor. \nWhere can I watch the announcement?\nThe Bank of Canada publishes the statement directly on its website at the time of release. There is no press conference for this particular meeting since it is a statement-only decision.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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